IMF says global growth prospects over medium term now seem dimmer than in decades
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
Tentative signs in early 2023 that the world economy could achieve a soft landing—with inflation coming down and growth steady—have receded amid stubbornly high inflation and recent financial sector turmoil, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday.
Global growth will bottom out at 2.8 percent this year before rising modestly to 3 percent next year on the back of tightening global financial conditions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report.
Tentative signs in early 2023 that the world economy could achieve a soft landing—with inflation coming down and growth steady—have receded amid stubbornly high inflation and recent financial sector turmoil, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday.
The baseline forecast, which assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained, is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3.0 percent five years out––the lowest medium-term forecast in decades, the report said.
Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023––the weakest growth since the global downturn, as per the IMF.
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IMF said the recent banking crises in the US with the Silicon Valley Bank, and in Europe’s Credit Suisse bank have roiled financial markets. “The unexpected failures of two specialised regional banks in the United States in mid-March 2023 and the collapse of confidence in Credit Suisse—a globally significant bank—have roiled financial markets, with bank depositors and investors re-evaluating the safety of their holdings and shifting away from institutions and investments perceived as vulnerable. The loss of confidence in Credit Suisse resulted in a brokered takeover. Broad equity indices across major markets have fallen below their levels prior to the turmoil, but bank equities have come under extreme pressure,” the report said.
A hard landing- particularly for advanced economies- has become a much larger risk. Policymakers may face difficult trade-offs to bring sticky inflation down and maintain growth while also preserving financial stability, the report said.
Inflation Slowly Converging to Target
“With the recent increase in financial market volatility and multiple indicators pointing in different directions, the fog around the world economic outlook has thickened. Uncertainty is high, and the balance of risks has shifted firmly to the downside so long as the financial sector remains unsettled. The major forces that affected the world in 2022—central banks’ tight monetary stances to allay inflation, limited fiscal buffers to absorb shocks amid historically high debt levels, commodity price spikes and geoeconomic fragmentation with Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s economic reopening—seem likely to continue into 2023,” said IMF.
IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said, “The global economy’s gradual recovery from both the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains on track.
China’s reopened economy is rebounding strongly. Supply chain disruptions are unwinding, while dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding. Simultaneously, the massive and synchronized tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back towards targets.”
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He added, “Recent banking instability reminds us, however, that the situation remains fragile. Once again, downside risks dominate and the fog around the world economic outlook has thickened.”
Inflation Still High, But Falling
Global headline inflation is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly, IMF warned. Global inflation is seen at 4.9 percent in 2024, the report added.
Inflation Turning Down or Plateauing?
Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases. Once inflation rates are back to targets, deeper structural drivers will likely reduce interest rates toward their pre-pandemic levels. More worrisome are the side effects that the sharp monetary policy tightening of the last year is starting to have on the financial sector, the report found.
“Should we worry about the risk of an uncontrolled wage-price spiral? At this point, I remain unconvinced. Nominal wage gains continue to lag price increases, implying a decline in real wages. Somewhat paradoxically, this is happening while labor demand is very strong, with firms posting many vacancies, and while labor supply remains weak— many workers have not fully rejoined the labor force after the pandemic.
This suggests real wages should increase, and I expect they will. But corporate margins have surged in recent years—this is the flip side of steeply higher prices but only modestly higher wages—and should be able to absorb much of the rising labor costs, on average. Provided inflation expectations remain well-anchored, that process should not spin out of control. It may well, however, take longer than anticipated, said Gourinchas.
A Challenging Outlook
The World Economic Outlook report warned that a return of the world economy to the pace of economic growth that prevailed before the bevy of shocks in 2022 and the recent financial sector turmoil is increasingly elusive.
“More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of more contagious COVID-19 variants, many economies are still absorbing the shocks. The recent tightening in global financial conditions is also hampering the recovery. As a result, many economies are likely to experience slower growth in incomes in 2023, amid rising joblessness,” it said.
Moreover, even with central banks having driven up interest rates to reduce inflation, the road back to price stability could be long, IMF added. “Over the medium term, the prospects for growth now seem dimmer than in decades.”
Risks to Outlook
IMF noted that the risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply. Financial sector stress could amplify and contagion could take hold, weakening the real economy through a sharp deterioration in financing conditions and compelling central banks to reconsider their policy paths, it said.
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Among other key risks, it pointed out that pockets of sovereign debt distress could, in the context of higher borrowing costs and lower growth, spread and become more systemic. The war in Ukraine could intensify and lead to more food and energy price spikes, pushing inflation up.
External Debt Vulnerabilities for Emerging Market and Developing Economies Are High
Core inflation could turn out more persistent than anticipated, requiring even more monetary tightening to tame. Fragmentation into geopolitical blocs has the scope to generate large output losses, including through its effects on foreign direct investment, it added.
India’s Growth Outlook Cut
India’s growth forecasts have also been cut sharply for both the current and next fiscal. As per IMF’s latest report, India’s real GDP growth rate for FY2024 is estimated at 5.9 percent, 20 basis points lower than IMF’s January forecast, and far lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.5 percent estimate.
Thereafter, India’s GDP growth for FY25 is seen at 6.3 percent, a good 50 basis points lower than IMF’s January forecast. India’s consumer price inflation is seen at 4.9 percent in FY24 and 4.4 percent in FY25, as per the report.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow