2024 Lok Sabha Elections | What does a low voter turnout indicate for NDA and I.N.D.I.A Bloc

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In the intricate dance of democracy that unfolded during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the nation found itself enmeshed in the web of political fervour and the ebb of voter enthusiasm. Two phases have unfurled their banners, revealing not just the numbers but the pulse of a nation grappling with its political destiny.

Amidst this symphony of democracy, a discordant note emerged — the dwindling melody of voter engagement. The first phase witnessed a  turnout of 65%, a number that whispered some promises of civic duty fulfilled. Yet, as the electoral saga unfolded further, the second phase saw this enthusiasm wane, dropping to a mere 64%. These numbers, seemingly innocuous at first glance, bear the weight of India’s democratic narrative — both these numbers showed the trend of a declining  voter enthusiasm in the process as compared to the previous elections. 

Peering into the heart of this statistical tale, one finds a myriad of factors at play. Complex and intertwined, these factors weave a tapestry of voter sentiment, coloured by socio-political currents and individual motivations. Yet, amidst this intricate tapestry lies a truth profound and impactful – the lower voter turnout, a silent tremor that reverberates through the corridors of power.

For the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, this lower turnout presents a nuanced challenge. While it may hint at a certain complacency or contentment among supporters, it also underscores the need for sustained engagement and outreach. Conversely, for the opposition’s I.N.D.I.A bloc, it beckons as a call to action, a rallying cry amidst the quieter echoes of voter participation.

In this delicate dance of democracy, where numbers speak volumes and narratives intertwine, the lower voter percentage emerges not just as a statistical anomaly but as a narrative thread that binds the political future of India. For in the ebb and flow of voter enthusiasm lies the heartbeat of a nation’s democratic spirit, echoing across the political landscape.

A Comparative Analysis Of Voter Turnout 

The voter turnout trends across the 2014, 2019, and 2024 Lok Sabha elections paint a dynamic picture of India’s electoral landscape. In 2014, enthusiasm soared to a historic high of 66.4%, fueled by heightened awareness and evolving political narratives. This trend continued in 2019, with the first phase witnessing a notable 69.43% turnout and the second phase maintaining a robust 70.09%.

However, the 2024 elections ushered in a different narrative. The first phase saw a dip to 65.5%, followed by a further decline to around 64% in the second phase. This downward trajectory raises concerns about voter engagement and satisfaction with the prevailing political climate.

Analysing these numbers unveils a pattern of strong participation in previous elections, particularly peaking in the second phase of 2019. Yet, the current elections diverge from this trend, signalling potential implications for political parties reliant on high voter turnout for success. Various factors contribute to this decline, including external elements like the heatwave during the election period, which may have dissuaded some voters.

Although India’s turnout remains respectable globally, the shift from previous elections hints at the weak sentiments and engagement levels among voters, casting a spotlight on the evolving dynamics of democracy in the nation.

Reasons Of Lower Voter Turnout

The primary factor contributing to the decreased voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is the relentless heatwave sweeping across the country. This natural obstacle has made the act of voting, which often involves waiting in long queues under the scorching sun, a daunting challenge for many citizens. Coupled with this environmental deterrent is a growing sense of voter fatigue. The incessant campaigning, characterised by polarising narratives and a flood of promises, may have left some voters feeling disillusioned.

Another significant contributor to this trend is the shifting dynamics within the electorate itself. There is a noticeable apathy among first-time voters, a demographic crucial for injecting new vigour into the democratic process. Additionally, the migrant population, comprising a substantial portion of the electorate, faces logistical hurdles that hinder their ability to participate in the electoral process.

The political landscape has also played a role in dampening voter enthusiasm. Aggressive campaign strategies, while intended to rally supporters, may have inadvertently alienated some voters, leading them to express their discontent by abstaining from voting. Furthermore, dynamics related to caste and community discontent have influenced voter turnout, with certain groups feeling marginalised or disenchanted with the political machinery.

Impact of Low Turnout on NDA’s Fortunes

The canvas of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has been brushed with a discernible hue of lower voter turnout, particularly casting shadows over states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Karnataka. This artistic departure from the fervour witnessed in 2019 has sparked contemplation and scrutiny, painting a narrative of intrigue and potential shifts in the political landscape.

In the vibrant palette of Kerala, the second phase of 2024 witnessed a turnout of 70.03%, a shade lower than the vibrant 77.84% splashed across the canvas of 2019. This subtle shift in hue hints at myriad influences, from the brushstrokes of voter fatigue to the nuanced strokes of available choices. Kerala, long adorned by the UDF, now presents a canvas where the BJP-led NDA seeks to imprint its colours. The lower turnout here, a tale of mixed tones, might weave a tapestry of missed opportunities or unexpected vistas, depending on the brushstrokes of mobilisation and engagement.

Venturing into Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the canvas reveals intriguing patterns of fluctuating colours. Though specific numbers for 2024 remain elusive, the overarching theme of reduced engagement whispers tales of discontent or shifting allegiances. In Tamil Nadu’s vibrant palette, where the BJP adorns itself with regional hues, a lower turnout may echo murmurs of dissatisfaction with the central narrative or its local accompaniments. Karnataka, with its bolder strokes of BJP dominance, finds itself at a crossroads where each brushstroke of voter participation could sway the final masterpiece in tightly contested spaces.

Crossing over to Rajasthan’s historical tapestry of political swings, a lower turnout paints shadows of uncertainty for the BJP. High turnouts, historically favouring the incumbent, now mingle with whispers of change, potentially altering the narrative in favour of the opposition’s brushstrokes.

Amidst this artistic narrative, the lower turnout becomes a canvas of intrigue for the BJP-led NDA. The ability to ‘Get Out the Vote’ now emerges as a brushstroke of paramount importance, each dab of mobilisation adding depth or shadows to the electoral tableau.

Impact on I.N.D.I.A Bloc

The lower voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections paints a complex picture for the opposition’s INDIA bloc, showcasing both challenges and potential opportunities. In Kerala, although the turnout dipped from 77.84% in 2019 to 67.15% in 2024, the stronghold of the left alliance and the Congress-led alliance implies that this drop may not significantly impact their standing. The battle in Kerala predominantly revolves around these alliances, minimising the impact of reduced turnout on the opposition.

Conversely, Rajasthan presents a tougher challenge for the Congress as the voter turnout decreased by about four percentage points, highlighting potential struggles in mobilising support. The state’s election dynamics, once perceived to hinge on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image, now centre around caste lines, especially discontent among the Jat and Rajput communities. Despite this discontent, the lower turnout may limit the Congress’s ability to capitalise fully on anti-BJP sentiments among these key communities.

In Tamil Nadu, where the DMK-Congress alliance holds sway, the advantage remains with the opposition bloc despite the drop in turnout. The state’s entrenched Dravidian politics and historical voting patterns suggest that a lower turnout may still favour the opposition, signalling potential setbacks for the ruling DMK-Congress alliance.

Moving beyond these states, regional factors play a crucial role in determining the impact of reduced turnout on the opposition. States like Manipur, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tripura, and West Bengal showcase unique dynamics where local issues often overshadow the broader narrative. For instance, in Western UP, simmering discontent within the Jat community against the BJP, despite RLD’s support, hints at a potential advantage for the opposition amidst the lower voter turnout.

Ultimately, while lower turnout poses challenges in terms of mobilisation and impact, it does not extinguish hope for the opposition. Strategic manoeuvring, effective messaging, and leveraging regional dynamics can still yield dividends, turning what may seem like a setback into an opportunity for the opposition’s I.N.D.I.A bloc to make significant gains in the electoral arena.

—The author, Sayantan Ghosh (@sayantan_gh), is a political observer and research scholar, who teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. The views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here 

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow