Month: March 2012

Fed’s low interest rates ‘toxic’ for economy: Expert

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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While the US Federal Reserve has reiterated it would keep interest rates near zero until late 2014, Sam Chandan, Chief Economist at Chandan Economics, says that low interest rates distort asset prices and are “toxic” for the economy.

“An extraordinarily low interest rate environment has become our drug of choice in this country. But the potential impact on the economy over the long run, in terms of how it distorts the markets, is potentially quite toxic. (It is) something we got to back away from,” Chandan told CNBC.

He adds that the US has not had an “interest rate environment that looks anything close to normal for a long time” and when that happens it will be difficult to handle. He gives the example of the housing market, which is struggling to recover despite low mortgage rates.

“There are a lot of people who want to become homeowners but it`s difficult for them to qualify for mortgage credit even though the price of the mortgages are very, very low,” Chandan told CNBC. “We will begin to see an erosion of that affordability as interest rates begin to rise.”

According to him loose monetary policy has “masked” underlying economic challenges in the country. “The continuing intervention through monetary policy makes it very difficult for us to assess whether private economies are allowed to function on their own or if these asset price trajectories are sustainable,” Chandan said.

While it may be tempting to keep interest rates low, Chandan says, “Ultimately, we will reach a point where we need to balance out the fact that the economy has to run on its own legs.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Improving housing mkt driving US economy: JPMorgan

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US housing market is very close to a bottom and there are already signs its improvement is giving a boost to the overall economy, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC Wednesday.

“I believe we`re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,” Dimon said during a job fair in New York for hiring veterans.

Housing is more affordable and “the shadow inventory everyone talks about is lower today than it was 12 months ago. It will be a lot lower 12 months from now,” he said.

Distressed inventory “is actually coming down, not going up. Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago. You could come up with a pretty bullish case. If the economy grows, housing gets better, quicker.”

He said the US economy is “getting stronger all the time. It`s broad-based, companies are in great shape…Consumers are in great shape.”

So are the banks – JPMorgan was one of those that passed the Federal Reserve`s latest round of stress tests. The bank was so pleased by this it jumped the gun and announced it was raising its dividend and buying back shares before the official release of the test results.

Dimon believes the threat of a double-dip recession is behind us.

“No one can forecast the economy with certainty,” Dimon said, “but most of us in business [have] got growth plans that have nothing to do with the actual state of the economy. We`re going to always open new branches,” do more marketing, hire more people and work to bring in more customers.

Europe`s financial problems, at least for now, have been “put to bed,” he said, and while he expects China to have a “soft” economic landing, it will still have 7.5 percent growth, he said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has had 24 straight months of job increases. JPMorgan, he said, has “never stopped expanding,” opening branches in the U.S. and around the world even during the financial crisis, and it wants to add 3,000 veterans to its banking and call center staff under the “Hiring our Heroes” jobs program.

If the economy is doing so well why is the Federal Reserve holding interest rates down until late in 2014?

“I think they want to see 300,000 to 400,000 jobs a month for six months before they declare victory” and raise rates, the JPMorgan CEO said. “If that actually happened, I think they might reverse course.”

As for the stock market, he said American companies are “enormously valuable, and you can buy them at very good prices. They are among the best companies in the world… You could buy a good piece of America at a very good price.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Plunge in natural gas prices is reshaping energy industry

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Natural gas prices are falling near levels last seen in the 1990s, which could help spur the US to develop more uses for the fuel, including transportation.

The collapse in natural gas prices to decade lows amid record supplies have changed the dynamic of the energy industry.

Natural gas is already displacing coal in power generation, driving coal`s share to the lowest level since the 1970s, and promises to drive it even lower. And there`s more talk now that it could replace some gasoline in transportation.

But for now, natural gas is being overproduced across the country, as companies extract shale gas in 32 states and off shore. In just a few short years, the shale gas industry has turned the US from a potential importer of natural gas to a potential major exporter.

This abundance of supply and an unusually warm winter combined to create a record amount of natural gas in storage for this time of year. The latest weekly inventory data is released Thursday at 10:30 am ET by the EIA.

“We are right now at 2.38 trillion cubic feet. It`s a record for this time of year, and it`s 55% above the five-year average,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital.

“April historically sees the start of natural gas injection, or the build in inventories, but this year it started in March,” Kilduff said. The injection period typically runs to November 1, when gas starts to get drawn down for heating.

Natural gas futures finished at 2.19 per million BTUs on the NYMEX, down 3.7 percent for the week and down 27% since January 1. Natural gas is now trading at levels last seen in February, 2002.

“We`re going to see an injection of 40 bcf (billion cubic feet) tomorrow… and we saw an injection last week. It`s unusual. Usually in March, we see the last of the withdrawals,” Kilduff said.

Kilduff said he expects gas to break through USD 2 in the near future, and his next target is USD 1.82 per million BTUs. But it could certainly fall into the USD 1.60s level, last seen in the late 1990s, he said.

Natural gas prices could rise “if companies were to aggressively shut in supply, if we get some early cooling demand or if for some reason there was to be some unusual amount of nuclear power plant maintenance that that too would push the potential to get some electricity demand on that would be natural gas fired,” he said.

Many in the industry expect to see low single digit prices for natural gas into the foreseeable future, with the price eventually getting back towards $3 to USD 4.

“I think it`s hard to say what the level will be but we`re certainly in a long period of low natural gas prices, given the volumes, given demand. And that`s why this discussion about natural gas and transportation is a lot more serious now than it was a year ago,” said Daniel Yergin, CEO of IHS/CERA.

Both Chrysler and General Motors recently announced natural gas fueled pickup trucks, and Shell Oil has said it would test some natural gas fueling stations in Canada.

Companies, like Chesapeake, have cut back on production but analysts say there will have to be more shut ins to stem the price decline.

“We`re seeing more companies pledge to accelerate their shift into liquid or oil production. There have been natural gas curtailments, but it hasn`t` been enough to move prices,” said Michael Zenker, managing director, commodities research at Barclays.

“Prices are likely to continue to soften this year-how low they go is anyone`s guess-sub USD 1 price is certainly possible, but not necessarily likely,” said Zenker.

Barclays expects prices to average USD 3.25 per million BTUs in 2013. “Most of the upside in prices comes in a cutback in drilling, slowdown in production and we`re factoring in normal winter weather conditions, which should help reset the imbalance,” he said.

The drop in prices is also causing pain in the industry. Companies, like oil field services company Baker Hughes and Schlumberger, are feeling it on the bottom line. Baker Hughes this week said it is cutting costs after warning last week that it was being hurt by the shift to oil from natural gas basins.

“I think the large companies have the staying power to get through it and look to the other side of the valley,” said Yergin. “Independents have depended on hedging. That`s been critical to their ability to survive this.”

“If you have low prices at this level, it will eventually provoke a shakeout in the industry,” he said.

Follow Patti Domm on Twitter: @pattidomm

Questions? Comments? Email us at marketinsider@cnbc.com

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Investors focus on GDP, claims and end of quarter

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The third read on fourth quarter GDP would normally be a ho hum event, but Thursday`s report could contain some important insights about first quarter growth.

Economists are looking to see what kind of revisions will show up in personal consumption, and then whether that could spill into the February personal consumption number, released Friday.

There is also important weekly jobless claims data, at 8:30 am ET, and a 1 pm. auction of USD 29 billion in 7-year notes.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is back in class, scheduled to give his final lecture at George Washington at 12:45 pm ET, and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at 1 pm on the economy, in Wilmington, Del. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks at 10:30 am ET.

“If GDP is revised up in the fourth quarter, and I think it will be that makes it, at the margins, even more impressive that the economy was able to recover in the second half of last year, given all the shocks it faced,” said Deutsche Bank chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna. He expects fourth-quarter GDP to come in at 3.3%, up from 3%.

“Assuming we get this revision to consumption that will effectively give us a better lift off point for the first quarter, my guess is when we get Friday`s data on February consumption that you`ll see not just an increase in February personal consumption, but you`ll probably see an increase in December and January (revisions),” he said. He expects a 0.4% increase in the fourth-quarter consumption number. LaVorgna currently expects first quarter growth of 2.8%.

Nomura economists were also expecting an increase in fourth-quarter GDP, to an above consensus 3.5%. “We think that there are some upside risks to our forecast. As a result, we think the full-year real GDP growth for 2011 might also be revised up by one-tenth to 1.8 percent from 1.7%,” according to a note. They are also looking to Friday`s personal consumption data to see if it signals stronger first quarter growth.

LaVorgna expects jobless claims of 350,000. “Something that shows a grinding improvement will remain in place,” he said, adding that last year and the year before claims became more elevated in April. “It will be very important to see if claims can sustain this deceleration,” he said.

Stocks wobbled Wednesday, with the Dow (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJIA) down 71 at 13,126, and the SandP 500 (INDEX: .SPX) off 6 to 1,405. Traders have said there could be more selling, amid talk that asset allocators are rebalancing after the first quarter`s strong stock market gains, by selling stocks and increasing bond holdings. Stocks are on track for the best first quarter since 1998.

But doubts about global growth sent a round of jitters into equities markets Wednesday, after an overnight sell off in Shanghai stocks on concerns about Chinese growth. Copper was weak, and stocks were led lower by basic materials and energy shares. A weaker than expected U.S. durable goods report added to the negative tone. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), a global growth bellwether, slumped in heavy trading.

There is also increasing focus on Europe, where finance ministers will be tackling the reshaping of the European bailout funds at the end of the week, and Spain will put forth a budget.

Earnings reports are expected from Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and Shaw Group (NYSE: shaw) before the opening bell Thursday, while Blackberry maker Research in Motion (NASDAQ: rimm) and Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) report after the bell.

Follow Patti Domm on Twitter: @pattidomm

Questions? Comments? Email us at marketinsider@cnbc.com

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Dow to extend rally to 13,900: Charts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The defining feature of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the extended support/resistance trend line, which is a projection of the head and shoulder pattern that developed in the middle of 2011. This is the support feature, which will help define the nature of the continued rise in the Dow.

The Dow developed a head and shoulder pattern between April 2011 and July 2011. The lingering influence of the head and shoulder pattern neckline has proven to be very powerful. This line acted as a resistance level and limited the rally rise.

The breakout above the value of the trend line now changes the function of the trend line. It is now a support level. We expect to see the index rise above the trend line, then retreat and use the trend line as a support level. This is a change in the polarity of the trend line from resistance to support. This confirms the strength of the rally, which can now be described as an uptrend.

This changes the nature of the question about the Dow so the focus is on how to establish upside targets for this trend. The head and shoulder neckline exerted a long term influence on the market and it is long term historical activity that helps define the initial upside targets for the Dow. The previous intra-day all-time high for the Dow was at 14, 198 in October, 2007.

A small resistance level developed near 13,900. This is the first upside target for the Dow. Many will focus on the psychologically convenient round number target of 14,000 but the historical resistance behavior is at 13,900. This is around 8.5% above the Dow peak near 12,820 over April 29 and May 4 2011.

Technical analysis has two main tasks. The first task is to identify trending behavior. This includes changes in the nature and the direction of the trend. The influence of the trend line helps identify these changes in trend behavior.

The second task is to help establish upside or downside targets. This is most easily achieved when chart patterns develop which allow for the calculation of measured moves. If these patterns are not present then, the historical support and resistance levels can provide guidance for targets. With the Dow there aren`t any chart patterns that assists in calculating or verifying upside targets. The first target is based on the small resistance level created in 2007.

However the US market has another broader index in the SandP500 and the behavior in this market can be applied to the Dow. The SandP 500 has also moved above the rally peak created in April 2011 at 1,370. The all time high for the SandP 500 is near 1,550 created in 2007 October. This is a 13% rise above the April 2011 rally peak.

The SandP behavior is leading the behavior of the Dow so traders will watch this index for clues about the best trading strategy for the Dow. Traders will also get better returns from trading the SandP as it moves towards the resistance targets created by the all time high in 2007.

The NASDAQ remains a long way below its all time March 2000 high at 5,132. The behavior of the NASDAQ breakout above the April-May 2011 rally high at 2,887 provides important clues about the sustainability of the Dow and SandP breakouts. The NASDAQ breakout is also a move above the double top high created in October 2007 and April-May 2011. This has a potential longer-term target near 3,600. This is calculated using the width of the trading band between 2,200 and 2,900.

Establishing upside targets for US indexes is difficult because no well defined chart patterns exist that will assist in these calculations. Traders wait for these patterns to develop. Until then we use broader resistance levels to set initial targets and watch the comparative behavior of each of these index measures of American market activity.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC`s Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.

If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com.

CNBC assumes no responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User is using this information at his/her sole risk.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Gold to reach $2000? Gold Miner’s CEO optimistic

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The price of gold hit a two-week high and posted its biggest one-day rise since January after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke boosted expectations of prolonged, low interest rates. Malcom Norris, CEO of Australia-based miner and explorer Solomon Gold, says the precious metal could go even higher.

“If you look at loose monetary policy coming out of the US, if you look at continued anxiety out of Europe, then it is logical for people to invest in gold,” Norris told CNBC. “Where else are they going to invest their money in a high risk environment?”

When asked if gold could hit USD 2,000 an ounce this year, Norris said: “While it continues to be a logical choice, then the price will go up.”

However, the current price of gold is only half of the equation. Norris stressed that Solomon Gold must look to the cost of production for future growth and stability.

Solomon Gold currently has major projects underway in the Solomon Islands and Queensland, Australia. Rannes, a branch of Queensland, is predicted to be a current hot spot for gold. Norris is focused on further exploring the resources in Rannes in hope of finding ways to bring down the cost of extraction.

“We`ll be looking at how that gold is extracted. If we can extract it via a heat bleach process, then maybe our capital costs are much lower,” Norris said.

Solomon Gold started serious mineral capitalization ventures when it hired the discovery team, Intrepid Mines. “The increase in value over the period of about two years was from USD 40 million to USD 1.1 billion in market capitalization terms,” Norris said as he commented on the immediate success that Solomon Gold saw after teaming with Intrepid Mines.

Norris emphasized that mineral capitalization is critical to adding value. However, it is a long and costly process.

“It will probably be a two-year exercise. These things cost money and take a lot of time,” Norris said. “We`ll need to have another financing round to get to that stage and as we can demonstrate good results over time, then that should be reflected in improving share price.”

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Invest in commodities, dividend payers: Pimco’s Gross

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Investors have to be careful “because they`re being offered little in terms of interest rates. The danger now is of prices moving down, which would leave an investor with nothing,” Pimco founder Bill Gross told CNBC Tuesday.

Gross, who runs the USD 252 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, said investors need “very tangible items” in their portfolios, and that means commodities.

“You have to move from financial assets into the world of real assets,” because countries like China are not “looking for financial assets, they`re looking to lock up commodities going forward,” Gross said.

He also advises investors to buy shorter-duration bonds and look for inflation protection in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and in gold.

Gross told CNBC he also likes high-yielding, dividend-paying stocks, and has a preference for investing in developing markets like China over developed markets.

He said the same in his most recent investment letter, while also stressing that bonds should remain a “critical component” of an investor`s portfolio.

Pimco has been buying mortgage-backed securities for months in anticipation of another round of quantitative easing , the so-called QE3, when he thinks the Federal Reserve will buy up these securities.

“The periods after QE1 and QE2 when Chairman Bernanke applied the brakes … produced 10 to 15% declines in the stock market. He doesn`t want to make that same mistake again,” said Gross.

Since there is no Fed meeting in May and Operation Twist expires in June, the Fed`s next meeting in April will be “the logical time for strong hints” on whether QE3 is imminent, Gross added.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

China to spur growth via fiscal stimulus in 2012: Goldman

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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As Beijing commits itself to increase domestic consumption in the wake of slowing Western demand for its exports, analysts at Goldman Sachs say Chinese authorities will pursue a more “proactive” fiscal than monetary policy to stimulate the economy.

According to a report published by the investment bank on Tuesday, the Chinese government’s fiscal revenues in 2012 are expected to exceed budget estimates. That will put more money in the government`s hand to spend on projects that will support consumption, in turn giving a boost to the retail, consumer goods and energy sectors.

The report says, “Fiscal revenues will likely beat the budget by around Yuan 500 billion (USD 79.3 billion).” It also states that historically expenditure has exceeded budget estimates each year together with revenues.

“Executing a more proactive fiscal policy is a core part of China`s 2012 economic agenda,” the report says. “With low fiscal deficit as part of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011 and low government debt as part of GDP, we believe China has ample fiscal flexibility.”

According to the report, the government`s 2012 fiscal deficit target is 2% of GDP, up from 1% in 2011 indicating higher potential to spend on spurring a slowing economy.

During the last financial crisis in 2008-2009 China announced a USD 586 billion stimulus plan to reignite its economy.

In 2012, the government is expected to spend on education, social housing, healthcare, and social security, says the report. This is in line with the Ministry of Finance priorities, which is to channel fiscal expenditure towards urbanization, transportation, rural projects and supporting small and midsized enterprises.

“The only way to be able to move from an export-led economy to a consumption-led economy is to increase wages, improve healthcare and education,” Uwe Parpart, Managing Director of Reorient Financial Markets told CNBC. “So people don`t have to save that much and can spend the money rather than worry about having to put away these huge amounts of money for 20-30 years.”

The beneficiaries of increased government spending this year, according to Parpart will be the retail and consumer goods sectors. He also sees the energy and infrastructure sectors as benefiting from the stimulus.

According to the Goldman Sachs report, the mass market consumption sector will benefit with the bank`s top picks including sports goods company Li Ning, China Eastern Airlines, Dongfeng Motor, apparel manufacturers and distributors Daphne International Holdings and Bosideng International.

Its picks in the energy sector include China Coal Energy , China Resources Cement Holdings and China National Building Material.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Third round of bond buying not needed: Fed’s Bullard

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A third round of Treasurys purchase is not necessary unless the US economy deteriorates further, according to James Bullard, president of St Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

Recent economic data have signaled that the US economy is doing better than economists think, Bullard told CNBC Tuesday, and a third round of bond buying by the Fed – in a program known as quantitative easing, or QE – is not needed.

“I think QE3 would require the economy to deteriorate somewhat from where it is right now,” Bullard said. “The basic story on the US economy is that we’ve had good news over the last six months or so, especially compared to the recession scenario that was being painted in the August-September time period of last year.”

The Fed has bought USD 2.3 trillion in bonds and kept rates near zero since December 2008 to stimulate growth. At its March 13 meeting, the Fed reiterated that it would keep rates near zero through late 2014 because of the lackluster economy.

A third round of bond buying may be in the works, according to Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund at PIMCO. He posted on Twitter Sunday that he expects the Fed to signal during its April meeting that more stimulus will be needed for the US economy.

Ultra-Loose Policy is ‘Detrimental’

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said Monday that the US job market remains weak despite three months of hiring and that the Fed’s existing policies will help boost growth. More robust consumer spending and business demand will be needed for further job gains, Bernanke said during a speech at the National Association for Business Economics spring conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Bullard says he would like to see the Federal Reserve resume a “more normal monetary policy as soon as possible” because it has detrimental effects on the economy. 

“It (the policy) punishes savers, for instance, in the economy, it does send a pessimistic signal about the economy and I think that can hurt investment prospects in the US,” Bullard said. “But we need to provide the right amount of support for the recovery as we do that, and we need to keep an eye on inflation.”

Inflation ran at 2.9% in February, with the consumer-price index hitting 0.4%, the US Department of Labor said earlier this month.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow