5 Minutes Read

Europe falls back into the red as post-Brexit rally cools

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

London’s FTSE index was off 0.7 percent in early trade, while the UK’s domestically focused FTSE 250 index slipped 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the French CAC fell 0.7 percent while the German DAX fell 0.7 percent.

European stocks fell back into negative territory on Thursday, as a rebound seen in UK stocks following the Brexit vote lost steam and a renewed decline in oil prices weighed on sentiment.

The pan-European STOXX 600 extended losses, off 0.7 to 0.8 percent, with all sectors posting losses.

London’s FTSE index was off 0.7 percent in early trade, while the UK’s domestically focused FTSE 250 index slipped 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the French CAC fell 0.7 percent while the German DAX fell 0.7 percent.

Despite uncertainty over the UK and European Union’s future relationship after the country voted last week to leave the bloc, markets in the region rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 reclaiming all of its post Brexit losses at Wednesday’s close.

However, signs that the rally was starting to slow down showed in several markets on Thursday. Looking at currencies, the euro was down against the dollar, sterling and yen, while the British pound came off the highs it saw in its previous session, trading roughly flat against the dollar, at USD 1.342.

Investors will be watching a speech by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at 4 p.m. London time, when he is expected to address concerns over the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

Meanwhile, on the oil front, both Bent and US crude fell over 1 percent each on Thursday, as Nigeria’s production outlook improved. Brent and US WTI were hovering around USD 49.85 and USD 49.15 respectively. Metal prices were mixed overall, however, basic resources was one of the worst performing sectors, with ArcelorMittal, Anglo American and BHP Billiton all posting sharp declines.

Despite lower trade in Europe, stocks in Asia were mostly higher following a positive session on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average closed up nearly 285 points in its best percentage gain since March 1.

‘No single market a la carte’ for UK: Tusk

On the Brexit front, the heads of 27 EU member states met on Wednesday without the UK to discuss the bloc’s next move following the referendum. In a statement by Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, he said there was a “calm and serious discussion” about the consequences of the vote and reiterated that there would be no negotiations with the U.K on any future relationship until the country formally notified the EU of its intention to withdraw.

He also said that the UK could not “cherry-pick” in any future talks. “Leaders made it crystal clear today, access to the single market requires acceptance of all four freedoms, including the freedom of movement. There will be no single market a la carte,” he said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Wednesday she was given a “sympathetic” hearing in Brussels where she made her case for finding a way to keep Scotland in the EU, Reuters reported.

Deutsche Bank, Santander fail Fed stress tests

In individual stock news, US bank subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank and Santander have failed the US Federal Reserve stress tests again with US regulators flagging up “broad and substantial weaknesses” in their capital planning. Deutsche Bank was off over 4 percent in early European trade.

Elsewhere in the banking sector, Unicredit sank to the bottom of Europe’s benchmarks, off 5.4 percent, after UBS and Morgan Stanley cut their price targets on the stock.

Elsewhere, Monsanto has asked Bayer to increase its takeover offer, reportedly demanding an extra USD 10 to USD 15 a share, according to unnamed sources cited by German business daily Handelsblatt. “Insiders” also told the paper that the mega merger between the two agro-chemical giants had been thrown into doubt by the Brexit vote. Bayer shares slipped more than 1 percent.

On the data front, the UK’s June inflation rate and final first quarter GDP data is due on Thursday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Brexit ‘tragedy’ no longer looks like ‘fait accompli’: Soros

The Brexit vote was a negative shock but the tragedy no longer looks like a ‘fait accompli,’ George Soros said in a speech at the European Parliament on Thursday, as it has created “positive momentum for a stronger and better Europe”.

He added that over four million people have petitioned Parliament to hold a second referendum. “By the time the Parliamentary debate on this petition takes place, it is not inconceivable that more people will have signed the petition than voted for Brexit,” Soros said.

Soros further added that while the popular vote cannot be reversed, a signature collecting campaign could transform the political landscape for EU membership.

“This approach could then be replicated in the rest of the European Union by forming a movement that would seek to save the EU by profoundly restructuring it. I am convinced that as the consequences of Brexit unfold in the months ahead, more and more people will be eager to join this movement,” Soros said, adding that the EU should not penalize British voters while ignoring their legitimate concerns about the “deficiencies of the European Union”

Brexit has not only created an opening to reinvent the European Union but has also aggravated two looming dangers, he said.

“First, it unleashed a crisis in the financial markets, comparable in severity only to 2007/8,” he said, adding that while this has been unfolding in slow motion, Brexit will accelerate it and reinforce deflationary trends that were already prevalent.

Aggravating the refugee crisis is the second danger according to Soros. “The EU faces growing military threats. Our external enemies have been emboldened, posing new, as-yet unfathomable dangers in various parts of the wider region, that are also liable to aggravate the refugee crisis.”

Adding that the vote for Brexit was a “great shock for him” Soros said the disintegration of the EU seemed practically inevitable last Friday morning, immediately after the vote.

However, he said that while the referendum result was a negative surprise, the spontaneous response to it was a positive one. “People on both sides of the referendum, and most importantly those who didn’t even vote—particularly young people under 35—have become mobilized. This is the kind of grass roots involvement that the European Union has never been able to generate before.”

Discussing the refugee crisis in detail, Soros said that German Chancellor Angela Merkel showed great moral leadership when she opened Germany’s doors wide to refugees. However, Soros identified three main flaws with the decision. It was not truly European but rather an initiative led by Germany. It was also severely underfunded and not voluntary.

Soros said in order to build a coherent European asylum policy, the EU should start by addressing the dire lack of financial resources and by building trust among each other.

“Without sufficient funding, the EU cannot meet the expectations of the European people. And because it fails to perform the functions it was designed for, the Union loses its legitimacy.”

 5 Minutes Read

Bank of Japan may be the 1st to adopt ‘helicopter money’ policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

“Helicopter money” is a term coined by Milton Friedman in 1969, and in its purest theoretical form, would involve giving cash directly to residents in order to stimulate growth.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the central bank most likely to adopt “helicopter money” policy but not in its traditional sense, S&P Global Ratings’ chief global economist told CNBC.

“Helicopter money” is a term coined by Milton Friedman in 1969, and in its purest theoretical form, would involve giving cash directly to residents in order to stimulate growth.

However, in today’s context, “helicopter money has to be a kind of monetary policy and fiscal policy coming together as one thing,” said Paul Sheard, chief global economist at S&P Global Ratings.

Japan is one of the most likely candidate to adopt the unconventional policy, Sheard said.

The economy has struggled with deflation for two decades. Even after the BOJ’s massive qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) program and venture into negative interest rates territory, the Asian economy hasn’t been able to boost domestic consumption and shake off deflation.

The impact of last Friday’s Brexit outcome, had also led to the Japanese yen to appreciate sharply, blunting the country’s export competitiveness.

Sheard explained that Japan is likely to adopt “helicopter money” because “the cornerstone of Abenomics is to mobilize monetary policy and fiscal policy to end this deflation once and for all.”

“If it’s done through the fiscal authorities, you know tax cuts and bigger budget deficits, with simultaneous quantitative easing, that’s actually pretty easy to do within [Japan’s] existing framework,” he explained.

In Japan’s context, fiscal authorities could introduce a form of tax cuts and bigger budget deficits, while the central bank could simultaneously introduce another round of quantitative easing, Sheard explained.

To be sure, the “helicopter money” policy might raise questions about the independence of central banks.

To this, Sheard responded that central banks independence means they can make their own decisions in their committees, but it doesn’t give them a free hand to ignore what the government is doing.

“The government and the central bank have to work closely together,” he said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

There are now $11.7 trillion worth of bonds with negative yields

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

What’s more, the holders of such bonds are willing to hang onto them for even longer, which Fitch said was the biggest factor in the increase. The total of negative-yielding debt with maturities of seven years or longer has swelled to USD 2.6 trillion, nearly double the amount in April.

The level of negative-yielding global debt is continuing its climb into the stratosphere.

Following the turmoil of the British vote to leave the European Union and the desire for the safety of government bonds, the amount has jumped to USD 11.7 trillion. That’s a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May, according to a Fitch Ratings report Wednesday.

What’s more, the holders of such bonds are willing to hang onto them for even longer, which Fitch said was the biggest factor in the increase. The total of negative-yielding debt with maturities of seven years or longer has swelled to USD 2.6 trillion, nearly double the amount in April.

“Worries over the global growth outlook, further fueled by Brexit, have continued to support demand for higher-quality sovereign paper in June,” Fitch said. “Widespread adoption of unconventional monetary policies, including large-scale bond-buying programs and negative deposit rates, have driven the large increases in negative-yielding debt seen this year.”

With its aggressive easing policies, Japan is by far the global leader in negative yields, at USD 7.9 trillion, up 18 percent for the month. German 10-year bunds also swung into negative territory — they traded at -0.115 percent Wednesday — as Germany and France now have more than USD 1 trillion in negative-yielding debt. Switzerland’s yields also have turned negative across the board, with the 10-year trading most recently at -0.5274 percent.

Despite the Brexit-related turmoil, UK bond yields have stayed positive, with the 10-year at 0.95 percent.

A search for safe havens has driven the willingness of institutional investors buying sovereign debt to accept the negative yields.

“The increasing amount of long-term negative-yielding debt underscores the challenges faced by large bond investors such as insurance companies that need to match long-term liabilities with similar maturity assets,” Fitch said. “As more of the global universe of safe assets drops into negative-yielding territory, income for these investors continues to fall.”

Fitch said fluctuations in the US dollar also have contributed to the total. The greenback’s decline against the Japanese yen accounted for USD 600 million of the USD 1.3-trillion growth in dollar-denominated, negative-yielding debt.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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China the biggest beneficiary of Brexit: Mark Mobius

Global investor Mark Mobius discussed Brexit’s impact on emerging markets, China and Brazil on CNBC on Wednesday.

“The biggest beneficiaries [of Brexit] will be first of all China because more and more trade will go in that direction,” Mobius said. “Any of the consumer plays in Brazil look very very cheap.”

Mobius is the executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group.

Watch the accompanying video for the whole interview.. 

 5 Minutes Read

European stocks open higher as Brexit concerns ease;FTSE up 1.5%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

European markets continued to rally despite uncertainty over the UK and European Union’s future relationship after a majority of the British public voted last Thursday to leave the bloc.

European stocks opened higher on Wednesday as global market volatility caused by the Brexit vote eases.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 1.05 percent. London’s FTSE index was up 1.5 percent.

European markets continued to rally despite uncertainty over the UK and European Union’s future relationship after a majority of the British public voted last Thursday to leave the bloc.

On Tuesday, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed 3.3 percent higher provisionally with all bourses and sectors posting solid gains and Wall Street followed suit, closing higher.

Asia markets also opened higher on Wednesday, following gains across US and Europe on Tuesday as jitters eased about the Brexit vote.

Prime Minister David Cameron (who resigned following the Brexit vote) met with his European counterparts in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss the country’s position following the vote. The atmosphere was reported to be “serious but constructive,” as one minister present tweeted. Pressure was applied to the UK to trigger Article 50 which sets in motion the process of withdrawing from the EU.

The heads of the EU’s 27 other member states will continue their meeting on Wednesday without the UK present.

In other news, at least 36 people have been killed and scores more wounded in what appeared to be a coordinated terror attack on Istanbul Ataturk Airport, Turkey’s largest airport.

The exact death toll fluctuated on Tuesday night ET; a senior Turkish official said nearly 50 people were killed in the attack, while Turkish broadcaster HaberTurk cited Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag as putting the number at 31 dead and more than 147 wounded.

There are no major earnings on Wednesday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

Investors are on the Titanic: Marc Faber

The global economy has been weakening and could worsen ahead, but there are still a lot of market opportunities for investors, said Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

“We’re all on the Titanic, but the Titanic still has maybe a few days to travel before it collapses so we might as well enjoy the journey,” Faber, also known as Dr. Doom, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Anticipating a downtrend, Faber said he’s holding physical gold in safe-deposit boxes and buried in his garden, as well as holding gold mining shares. For “ordinary” investors, he recommended holding gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, or GDX.

Faber said that every investor should hold gold, calling it his preferred currency.

But that didn’t mean Faber was dissing on the rest of the stock market.

Faber said the global economy’s downtrend was likely to be exacerbated by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (EU), or Brexit, but he added that this wasn’t necessarily bad news for the stock market.

“Brexit will give a perfect excuse to the Federal Reserve not to increase interest rates and be most likely to launch QE4,” or another round of quantitative easing to purchase assets in the market,” Faber said. “Then the other central banks will also join and also launch further easing measures, printing money and so the global economy could worsen and stocks actually could go up.”

He believed that the opportunities being opened up might be more available to individual investors than to large funds.

“If you run a trillion dollars or USD 500 billion, it’s difficult to move between Russia, Brazil and other markets, but I think there’s an opportunity for individual investors,” he said.

Among the market opportunities, Faber said he believed precious metal stocks were still cheap, despite recent gains.

Gold climbed to a two-year high of USD 1,358.20 an ounce on Friday after the Brexit results were released as spooked investors sought safe-havens. At 9:08 a.m. SIN/HK, spot gold was trading at USD 1,318.00 an ounce.

 5 Minutes Read

This is what Janet Yellen will be watching on Wednesday

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The PCE inflation data could be important because futures markets are now reflecting a chance that the Federal Reserve could actually cut interest rates before the end of the year, instead of raising them.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s favorite inflation indicator, as well as fresh data on income and spending, could temporarily distract markets from the Brexit on Wednesday.

The PCE inflation data could be important because futures markets are now reflecting a chance that the Federal Reserve could actually cut interest rates before the end of the year, instead of raise them.

If there were a real move higher in inflation, it would be one thing that could prod the Fed to consider hiking rates and certainly change market expectatins. As for now, the Fed is believed to be on hold until the end of the year at the earliest.

The inflation measure is expected to show just a slight increase, but remain subdued and below the Fed’s 2 percent target. The 8:30 a.m. EDT report is expected to show that core PCE prices rose 0.2 percent in May, or 1.7 percent year over year. Some other data is beginning to show signs that wages and other inflation measures are rising.

The futures-market odds shifted from a chance of a rate hike to a better chance of a rate cut by December, as traders reacted to the recent volatility around the UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union.

Consumer spending, expected to rise 0.4 percent, is also an important number due on Wednesday, coming the day after revisions to first-quarter GDP showed that consumer spending growth slowed – a red flag for the economy. Consumption grew by 1.5 percent for the first quarter, lower than the prior estimate of 1.9 percent.

“This is really important for the domestic outlook. Obviously, markets are more focused on what’s happening overseas but at home in the US, separate from the risk from abroad, we’ve been tracking the data closer than ever trying to figure out what’s going on,” said Jesse Hurwitz, US economist at Barclays.

Hurwitz expects the consumer spending number to be stronger than consensus – up 0.5 percent. He said retail sales data and other data showed that spending was improving, and the second quarter could be stronger.

“We’re tracking 3.8 percent consumption growth for Q2 for now,” he said.

But the first-quarter revision was worrisome since it showed a further deceleration in the trend, and it would be important to show a bounce-back in spending. “The softness in consumption in the first quarter is a little more pronounced, so therefore a little bit more concerning at this point,” he said.

Hurwitz expects personal income to rise by 0.3 percent. Pending home sales are released at 10 a.m. and economists expect to see a 2 percent decline.

The data may get the attention of markets, but the bigger story will continue to be what goes on with the Brexit, asEuropean leaders met in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss the pending withdrawal of the UK from the European Union.

Risk markets rebounded Tuesday, bonds sold off, and currency markets steadied. The S&P 500 was up 1.8 percent at 2,036, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.46 percent. The pound was at 1.33 to the dollar in late trading.

Oil gained sharply and could be a factor again Wednesday, as the US Energy Information Administration releases inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Speculation the API data would show a large drawdown after Tuesday’s stock market close helped lift oil futures Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at USD 47.85 per barrel, up 3.2 percent, and they continued to rise above USD 48 per barrel after the API data showed a larger draw than expected.

Strategists said it was not yet time to signal an all clear for markets after the Brexit sell-off, since there were so many uncertain aspects of how the separation would work and how it would affect the UK and euro zone economies. The other concern is whether it will pressure financial conditions and filter into economies around the globe.

“We’re neutral (on US stocks)…This is basically a flat year for the market with a lot of ups and downs,” said Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist. He said investors needed to stay diversified. “Past shocks suggest there’s more downside.”

Kleintop said based on history, the market could have its ups and downs after the selloff that took more than 5 percent off the S&P 500 Friday and Monday. But based on other periods, the market selloff could continue for several months before reversing.

Kleintop looked at market behavior after other shocks, and in three major events, he found a similar pattern.

“When I look back at some of these prior shocks we didn’t see huge down days. We saw slow movement, as people assessed the outlook. The big drops tend to come on the first day. There’s usually a 3 to 6 percent drop on the first day. Then on average, markets were down 11 to 16 percent,” he said. “Stocks tended to bottom over two to three months, but they were actually back to their pre-shock level about four months later.”

Kleintop studied the period after the March, 2011 Japanese earthquake when the Nikkei fell 6 percent on the first day, but 16 percent in total before recovering four months later. During the European debt crisis, when Spain unveiled an austerity budget resulting in labor strikes, that jolted markets in March, 2012, causing a sell off of 11 percent by June 4. Stocks had recovered losses by the end of July.

After the congressional standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 lost 14 percent between Aug. 1 and Oct. 3, 2011. The S&P recovered those losses by late October.

Kleintop said he expected similar behavior in stocks this time. “I’m thinking maybe that’s the base case,” he said.

“It’s hard for me to see the whole ramifications of what’s going to happen in the next two years have been priced into two days. We’ll likely get days like this (Tuesday), followed by days on the downside,” he said.

Kleintop said besides the unfolding Brexit story, other European and the US election could also be factors creating turbulence for stocks.

“This is not a financial crisis. It’s a political one,” he said, noting he was watching to make sure it did not turn into a financial event.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Toyota recalls 482,000 Prius and Lexus vehicles for safety issue

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The recall includes model year 2010 to 2012 Prius vehicles, including 2010 and 2012 Prius Plug-in Hybrids, plus 2011 and 2012 Lexus CT 200h vehicles.

Toyota said on Tuesday that it is conducting a recall of 482,000 vehicles due to a safety issue.

The recall includes model year 2010 to 2012 Prius vehicles, including 2010 and 2012 Prius Plug-in Hybrids, plus 2011 and 2012 Lexus CT 200h vehicles.

The automaker said that the affected cars are equipped with air-bag inflators that may have a small crack that could grow over time, which could ultimately lead to the air bags inflating. If a passenger is in the car at the time of such an event, Toyota said, there is an increased risk of injury.

Toyota said it will be notifying all known owners by mail and will install retention brackets, which would prevent the air bags from entering the vehicle interior, at no cost to customers.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

‘Remain’ voters scramble for hope: Is EU referendum-II around?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The triumph of the “leave” vote in Thursday’s referendum stunned global financial markets and many of the UK public, some of whom are clamoring for a chance to vote again.

A controversial politician in the UK’s ruling Conservative Party has become the first senior government figure to hint at a second EU referendum vote, in what may prove a forlorn hope for disappointed “remain” voters.

The triumph of the “leave” vote in Thursday’s referendum stunned global financial markets and many of the UK public, some of whom are clamoring for a chance to vote again.

A petition posted on the official UK government website calling for a second referendum has gained 3.9 million signatures and is under consideration for a debate in parliament, although outgoing UK Prime Minister David Cameron has ruled out the possibility of another vote on Brexit.

However, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt raised the possibility of another vote to endorse the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU on Tuesday, in a television interview in which he strongly hinted he would run to succeed Cameron as prime minister.

“I don’t think it needs to be another referendum, but there needs to be some democratic endorsement of the terms in which we leave,” Hunt, who supported “remain,” Hunt told ITV‘s “Good Morning Britain” program.

“We have had nine general elections since we joined the EU and this is such a big thing that I think the terms on which we leave the EU also need to have the support of the British people and I also think that is the way we will get a better deal from our European partners,” he later added.

Polls pointed to a victory for “remain” in the run-up to Thursday’s vote, but “leave” won a narrow victory with 51.9 percent of votes in the UK, where the public has long been skeptical of membership.

Amid the financial market and political fallout — including a Conservatives leadership contest and a “vote of no confidence” in the leader of the opposition Labour Party — some “remain” voters are finding the results hard to swallow. There is speculation the UK might yet squeeze concessions from the EU that would make membership more palatable to the British public — despite officials in Brussels pushing for the UK to head quickly to the exit. This hope is based partially on the assumption the EU will be desperate to prevent other countries clamoring for the own referendums on membership.

So far, only Poland, a newer EU member that like the UK is critical of calls for “ever closer union,” has signaled openness to a second UK referendum.

“Our idea for today…foresees efforts aimed at making Britain return, including a second referendum,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland’s ruling party, said on Monday, according to media reports.

Kaczynski added that Brexit would be “very bad” and the EU would need to “radically change” for the UK to remain.

Both Boris Johnson — the Conservative Party’s highest-profile “leave” campaigner and leading candidate to become next prime minister — and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne have said they do not want the UK to rush to exit. Some speculate Johnson may hope to squeeze concessions from Brussels that would warrant a second referendum that would this time be won by “remain.”

“We could yet see a second re-negotiation, followed by a second referendum in which Prime Minister Johnson successfully campaigns for ‘remain,’ having achieved his primary goal by becoming prime minister,” James Strong, a fellow in foreign policy analysis, said in a blog posted on the London School of Economics and Political Science website on Friday.

Referendums — followed by second referendums — on EU treaties have precedent in other member countries and the public appear more willing to vote “yes” in subsequent rounds of voting.

Irish referendums on the constitutional basis of the EU in 2001 and the bloc’s expansion in 2008 were first rejected by the electorate before being approved in second referendums. Similarly, Denmark originally voted to reject the Maastricht Treaty on greater EU integration in 1992, before accepting it in a later referendum.

Meanwhile, the UK public has something else to ponder — a prime ministerial bid by Hunt, who has become a hate figure for junior doctors amid a long-running battle over pay and working conditions. Nominations for the new leader close on Thursday lunchtime.

Odds from UK betting firms on Hunt succeeding Cameron stand at only 50/1 — but they proved wrong on the referendum.

“I am not going to deny it (that I may run for prime minister) … I am seriously considering it,” he told ITV on Tuesday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?