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Brexit overshadows the Fed’s rate call: UBS’ Axel Weber
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
With the referendum on whether the UK should “Brexit” too close to call, “it creates huge uncertainty,” Weber, who was president of the German Bundesbank from 2004-2011, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” in an exclusive interview.
This month’s vote on the UK’s membership in the European Union will overshadow other risks and could spur the US Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike, Axel Weber, chairman of UBS and a former central banker, told CNBC.
With the referendum on whether the UK should “Brexit” too close to call, “it creates huge uncertainty,” Weber, who was president of the German Bundesbank from 2004-2011, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” in an exclusive interview.
“You already see that British assets have a risk premium attached to them over recent months, including the pound,” he said.
From a peak of around USD 1.5882 in mid-June of 2015, the pound is now fetching around USD 1.4431, losing more than 9 percent of its value against the greenback.
Concerns about the referendum may factor in to the Fed’s decision-making on a rate hike, which has been clearly signaled as likely in June or July.
“I think June, because of the British poll, is less likely to some degree than a July move,” Weber said.
But either way, he believes a rate hike is likely a done deal.
“Whether it’s July or June, for domestic reasons, purely domestic reasons, I think the US is ready for a rate hike and the Fed has signaled that,” he said. “The rest is tactical decisions on when to do that best rather than whether to do it or not to do it.”
While some analysts believe the Fed is less likely to move when no press conference is scheduled, Weber doesn’t believe it will be a factor.
A press conference is scheduled to follow the June 14-15 meeting – but not after the July 26-27 meeting.
“Monetary policy is not as much about the decision of the day. It’s really more about forward guidance and about informing markets what’s ahead and that’s a much more medium term view,” he said.
“The Fed has done most of that. It might actually be helpful to decouple the ability to move rates from the ability to have a press meeting,” he said. “It ties your hands in the market in an unfortunate way.”
If there’s no June hike, the Fed’s language will be “pretty clear,” Weber said. “I think the market then will almost perfectly price a July rate hike if the language is pretty straight forward.”
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