The real reason behind mayhem in emerging markets

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Forget fears of a US interest rate hike, the current emerging market selloff has a new narrative, according to one analyst.

“[Tuesday`s market selloff] in Asia has a lot more to do with broader global disinflationary fears,” than with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Adarsh Sinha, head of Asia Pacific G-10 FX strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told CNBC.

“Nowhere is that more evident than inflation break evens across the developed markets,” he said, referring to soft growth in European consumer prices and Japanese inflation hitting a one-year low in October.

MSCI`s Emerging Markets Index (: @MEM14H) fell to new 10-month low on Tuesday, with Thailand`s benchmark index once again leading declines in Asia. The SET index (The Stock Exchange of Thailand: .SETI) traded at six-month lows for the second straight session, down 3 percent by the afternoon after sinking as much as 9 percent on Monday.

Read More: Despite risks, Thailand may consider rate cut

Other experts said Sinha`s argument wasn`t groundless with lower oil prices driving global disinflation. Crude prices fell to new five-year lows on Tuesday, with Brent crude down 45 percent year-to-date.

“It looks like a valuation trade. The biggest reason for the EM rout is volatility spiking higher, triggered by oil and now ballooned into a broader equity market selloff,” said Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank.

“It`s difficult to isolate and eliminate factors, there are no convenient attributions. You have EM carry trades coming off as long bets are unwound, while year-end dollar demand is also playing a role,” he added.

This week`s selloff also spread to energy importing nations, like Indonesia and India, which many view as a catch up to the selling seen in exporter peers.

Indonesian stocks (Jakarta Stock Exchange: .JKSE) fell 2 percent to a one-month low on Tuesday, while the rupiah (Exchange: IDRUSD=) hit a fresh 16-year low against the greenback for the second straight day. Meanwhile, India`s rupee (Exchange: INR=) tumbled to a 13-month low and the Nifty index lost 1 percent.

“Nobody`s thinking anymore about which Asian country benefits from lower oil prices and which don`t. When the market prices in disinflationary fears, that`s an environment which historically tends to be really bad for Asian currencies, particularly those that are high-yielders and have current account deficits,” Sinha said.

Read More: Why Russia`s monster rate hike spells trouble ahead

Some believe the steep market declines in importers could even be a buying opportunity.

“If you look at major importers, like India or China, you have to start thinking this will be an opportunity for a longer-term investment. We do need to get through the Fed comments on Wednesday in order to have a clearer view on what emerging markets will look like in the next few weeks, but I think if someone has a year-long horizon, this may prove to be a very good buying opportunity for energy importing countries,” said David Riedel, president and founder of Riedel Research.

The selloff comes a day before the outcome of the Federal Reserve`s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders are debating whether the bank will drop the phrase that benchmark rates will remain low “for a considerable period of time.”

“If they did remove that phrase, I think you`re going to see all those usual suspects that have gotten hurt during taper tantrums in the past decline again, like Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Turkey,” Riedel added.

He dismissed possibilities that bad news could be priced in this time around.

Read More: The silver lining to cheap oil in the Middle East

“I`m not big believer that emerging markets price in a lot of things ahead of the news. Look at the Brazilian elections and sanctions on Russia… Markets do tend to wait until the news is confirmed before reacting. If you think rates will rise in the U.S. earlier rather than later, I would wait until that`s digested by the market because we could see another leg down,” he said.

Weak Chinese data on Tuesday also played a role, with the latest HSBC manufacturing purchasing manager`s index (PMI) print dropping into negative territory for the first time since May.

“In a week where the Federal Reserve is expected to take a hawkish shift in tone, the last thing emerging markets need is some unsettling economic data. While some would have hoped to see disappointing China data result in growing calls for stimulus, this has not been the case today and we`ve actually seen investor concerns heighten. China activity generally ramps up heading into the back end of the year but it doesn`t seem like this will be the case this time,” Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG, said in a note.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Brent below $60: Prepare for ‘dramatic’ investment cuts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Brent crude prices fell below USD 60 per barrel for the first time since July 2009 on Tuesday, prompting analysts to warn of a “dramatic” cut in investment – which could hit future supply.

Brent for January delivery was trading at USD 59.15 on Tuesday morning and WTI crude was trading at USD 54.27, continuing a slide in global oil prices that began in June on the back of a glut in supply and lack of global demand.

Gloomy Chinese data published Tuesday showing a slump in factory activity did nothing to support prices and heightened expectations that demand for oil will continue to ebb.

Read More: Brent near 4-year low after OPEC decides against output cut

Despite the price of benchmark Brent crude falling almost 50 percent since June, the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting countries (OPEC) decided not to cut production in November and there has been continued swell of supply from non-OPEC countries, including Russia and the US

Now, there are growing concerns that the oil industry could be about slash spending on infrastructure projects. This could, in theory, lead to a shortage of supply in the future – despite that scenario seeming far off right now.

“We’re as surprised as anyone that the oil price has gone this low, but what you can say for absolute certain is that this level…is going to mean a dramatic cut in capital expenditure in the oil industry,” Max King, portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management, told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.

Read More: Oil battle is sticky, but OPEC may be forced to act

“(This) is going to mean that major economies will have to radically cut spending, whatever they say (to the contrary),” he said, adding that this could lead to a shortage of supply in four or five years’ time.

As differences within OPEC become more apparent, analysts at research firm Energy Aspects said that next year “cash-strapped producers” – such as Russia, Iraq and Venezuela – would be forced to “divert funds from upstream investment to plugging holes in government budgets, particularly on social spending.”

Despite this, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak insisted on Tuesday that the country would not cut production, and would maintain its 2014 oil output level into 2015, Reuters reported.

In their outlook for oil in 2015, Energy Aspects analysts Amrita Sen, Robert Campbell and Richard Mallinson, also warned that various militant groups were threatening to take permanents holds on oil-rich territories, such as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which could also hit investment.

“As well as disrupting current supplies this basically rules out investment in exploration and future capacity,” they wrote. “An extended period of underinvestment would translate into a gradual decay of productive capacity. While this is hardly on the market’s mind right now, the seeds of this can be sown in 2015, adding to the tightness in the coming years.”
Saudi stocks slide

The move lower in oil prices is certainly taking its toll on markets in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia’s stock index down around 10 percent over the last week and Abu Dhabi’s main stock index close to 8 percent lower. Despite the fall, however, government officials have brushed off any potential threat to their economies.

An official from Abu Dhabi said on Tuesday that the fall in oil prices would not affect economic development projects in the country, while the chairman of Dubai’s fiscal committee said the country’s economy was doing well despite the difficult global environment.

Read More: OPEC needs to ‘wake up’ to shale revolution

While OPEC members like Saudi Arabia appear to be challenging US shale oil producers to cut production by saying that they can withstand lower oil prices, not every member of the 12-country group has that luxury. The economies of countries like Venezuela are close to collapse, and Saudi’s neighbor Iran is keen for production cuts in an effort to support prices.

Barclays’ commodities research team said that, “something has to give: time structure; price; or production.”

Read More: ‘Be cool’: OPEC head plays down US shale threat

They added that OPEC’s inaction would have “massive implications” for the health of the global economy.

“Given the speed and magnitude of the price move in the fourth quarter of 2014, we question OPEC’s willingness to stick to its mandate,” the Barclays team said.
“Furthermore, the instability in several key oil export nations means that the risk of potential supply disruptions is still present and arguably more dangerous.”

– By CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt, follow her on Twitter @HollyEllyatt.

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Asian shares rebound as investors eye Fed meeting

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Asian equities opened higher early Wednesday, brushing off a poor finish in the US overnight and continued weakness in the oil markets, as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting.

A below-view trade report from Japan weighed on Japanese shares at the open, but stocks soon rebounded. Japanese exports rose 4.9 percent on year, below expectations for a 7 percent rise in a Reuters poll and down from October’s 9.6 percent increase. Imports decline 1.7 percent, below expectations for a 1.7 percent rise and down from October’s 2.7 percent rise.

Meanwhile, Bank of Thailand is due to announce its policy decision later in the session and is expected to hold rates steady.

Wall Street overnight

US stocks fell for a sixth session in seven overnight, as traders tracked the price of oil and pondered the impact of lower energy costs and Russia’s economic troubles on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7 percent while the S&P 500 shed 0.9 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.2 percent.

Wall Street will hear from the Fed on Wednesday, with focus on whether the central bank reiterates its vow to maintain rates low for a considerable period.

“The US has been immune to events abroad so far, but perhaps [the Russian rouble’s collapse] will worry the Fed enough to exercise caution,” wrote IG market strategist Stan Shamu. “The fact the US dollar has been quite subdued this week could suggest traders are not overly convinced the fed will take a hawkish shift in language.”

US crude futures fell nearly 1 percent on Wednesday to stay below USD 56 a barrel after industry data showed stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week, and as Russia failed to halt more steep falls in the value of the ruble. London Brent crude for January delivery was untraded yet, after settling down USD 1.20 at USD 59.86.

In other news, at least 130 people, mostly children, were killed on Tuesday after Taliban gunmen broke into a school in the Pakistani city of Peshawar and opened fire, witnesses said, in the bloodiest massacre the country has seen for years.

Nikkei rises 0.6 percent

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 bounced back from a brief six-week low at the open, shrugging off a stronger yen and a softer than anticipated trade report.

Exporters largely turned positive an hour into trade; Honda Motor reversed opening losses to add 0.7 percent despite a local newspaper said the carmaker is set to add over USD 168 million to expenses for air bag related recalls this financial year. But Panasonic and Nikon remained lackluster, losing 0.4 percent each.

Mainland bourses mixed

Chinese equities reversed opening losses to creep up 0.4 percent early Wednesday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index outperformed the region to rocket up 2.3 percent in the previous session, on speculations of more stimulus measures.

The mainland could stop setting loan-to-deposit ratios as mandatory requirements for banks, which can provide another boost to liquidity, reported China Securities Journal. Meanwhile, state researcher Peng Xingyun wrote that the central bank should gradually cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to reduce market lending rates and promote interest rate reform.

In Hong Kong, the key Hang Seng index inched up 0.2 percent, moving off its lowest levels since October 3 attained on Tuesday.

Trading in Li Ning shares, which were suspended on December 12, resume today. The Chinese sports brand plunged 8.1 percent after announcing plans to raise up to HKUSD 1.69 billion (USD 218 million) in a open offer of shares..

ASX adds 0.7 percent

Australian stocks saw a positive start on Wednesday, as a rebound in the resources sector helped the benchmark S&P ASX 200 index to shake off bearish sentiment that has dogged the market for the past six sessions.

Miners overlooked iron ore prices at five-year lows to rise; Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton gained 1.5 and 1 percent each. After extensive losses for the past sessions, Santos and Woodside Petroleum advanced 4 percent each while Oil Search climbed 3.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hovered near multi-year lows early Wednesday, pinned at 8213 U.S. cents after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting revealed on Tuesday that the central bank felt a further decline in the local currency was needed to help cushion the economy from falling resource prices.

Kospi up 0.1 percent

South Korean shares crept up modestly early Wednesday as the utility sector pared gains. Kepco rose 1.8 but Kepco Plant S&E threw away early gains to lose 0.5 percent on speculations that there may be a cut in electricity fees.

Meanwhile, the won retreated from Tuesday’s five-week high to trade at 1,084 against the greenback.

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US structural growth rate to be about 2% or less: Gross

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group said in an exclusive interview with CNBC on Monday that economic growth will likely fall to 2 percent.

“Yes, we’re starting from a 3 percent growth economy that will probably persist for another quarter or so,” he said. “We get back to a relatively new structural growth rate, which is not 3 but probably 2 or even less.”

He attributed the decline to falling oil prices, which in turn affects industries such as fracking. Oil’s slide also “determines currency movements,” setting off a chain reaction.

“Then financial markets try and readjust,” he said. “Hedge funds reduce leverage and sell other positions.”

Gross said it would be “very difficult” for oil prices to stabilize.

Financial conditions are also problem, Gross said.

“Why would the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in order to slow economic growth if in fact inflation was moving lower? They have a dual mandate from that standpoint,” he said. “I think the market basically doesn’t respect the second part of that mandate.”

He also sees the 10-year yield holding near 2 percent.

“I think high quality bonds are a safe bet, just not a high returning bet,” he said.

Read More: Gross: Coverage of my Pimco departure ‘harsh’

He said Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities “look great.”

Founder of the Pacific Investment Management Company, Gross abruptly left for Janus Capital in late September.

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Russia ups key interest rate to 17% to stop run on rouble

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The bank had raised the rate to 10.5 percent last week in an effort to stem a run on its currency.

“This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks,” the central bank said in a statement. The decision is effective starting Dec 16.

Earlier on Monday, the Russian ruble saw its biggest drop against the dollar since 1998. It strengthened after the rate decision and was last trading at 62.50 rubles per dollar, compared to 65.50 before the announcement.

The announcement comes on the back of a plunge in the price of oil—Russia’s main export and revenue source. The country also faces headwinds from Western sanctions over its conflicts with Ukraine.

Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of “The Gartman Letter,” said that while the move could perk up the currency in the short term, the country may regret the decision later.
“All it is is a temporary stem in the decline of the ruble,” Gartman told CNBC Monday. “The problems that it’s going to create for the Russian economy, for the Russian people and for Mr. Putin, [will be] very severe.”

Gartman sees the ruble trading at 100 against the dollar soon. The currency has tumbled some 50 percent year-to-date.

“This is really extraordinary to watch,” Gartman said. “I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Russians we selling gold, they have no choice. What else can they sell? They can’t sell any crude oil anymore.”

The Kremlin recently trimmed its growth forecast for 2015, predicting that the economy will sink into recession.

In September, the United States and the European Union imposed a new round of sanctions for Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, which included blocking Western financial markets to key Russian companies and limiting imports of some technologies.

The additional sanctions were expected to cause enough pain to put Russia into recession for one or two years, predicted economist Alexei Kudrin, who served as finance minister under President Vladimir Putin for 11 years until 2011.

The potential for a prolonged downturn caused investors to pull their money from the capital, causing the ruble to further lose value.

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China HSBC PMI contracts in Dec, raising growth concerns

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Chinese factory output fell for a second straight month in December, boosting expectations that more stimulus measures will be needed to avoid a sharper slowdown amid slowing activity in the world’s second-largest economy.

The flash HSBC/Markit China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to 49.5 from a final reading of 50 in November, contracting for the first time in seven months. The 50-point level separates growth from contraction.

“This means that China is leaving this year on a very weak note,” Frederic Neumann, MD & co-head of Asian economics at HSBC, told CNBC. “We see a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Even new orders – a forward-looking indicator – points to further weakness ahead. I think they need to ease more just to right the ship again.”

Read More: China trade data paints dreary picture of economy

“We think next year growth will be around 7.3 percent, but that’s contingent upon [the central bank] easing more,” Neumann added. “If they just let this [continue] at the current pace, probably growth will head to a 6 [percent] handle, so more monetary easing and rate cuts are needed to add some spice to the economy.”

The data followed below-view readings on Chinese trade and inflation figures last week, which increased speculation that the People’s Bank of China could undertake easing measure to support the economy. The central bank cut interest rates for the first time in two years in late November as growth appeared on course to undershoot the 7.5 percent 2014 target set earlier in the year.

Over the weekend, a central bank paper said that growth could slow to 7.1 percent in 2015.

Read More: ‘Perfect storm’ to hit China economy in 2016

“Data from China will be very interesting in coming months, particularly after the People’s Bank of China’s chief economist Ma Jun downgraded 2015 growth to 7.1 percent, citing the Fed’s actions as a key reason,” Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG, said in a note Tuesday morning.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

The silver lining to cheap oil in the Middle East

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Cheap oil is widely expected to hurt Middle Eastern economies, but a new report highlights unexpected benefits the selloff may bring to the region.

Further declines in global crude oil prices could see nations step up their efforts to diversify away from oil and increase the chances of a nuclear agreement with Iran, according to Citi.

Read More: OPEC’s Badri: Oil is overshooting fundamentals

Reforms to intensify

Crude’s steep fall could motivate nations to reduce their economic dependence on oil and diversify their economies through investments in the non-oil sector. Oil revenues finance the majority of government spending for exporting nations and as a result of the selloff, Citi sees exporters slashing expenditure growth from a historical 13 percent in 2010-2014 to 5 percent in 2015-2018.

“With revenue pressures promising to constrain government spending growth for the foreseeable future, breaking the link between oil revenues and economic growth moves towards the top of the economic policy agenda. We expect governments to move in parallel paths to achieve this,” said Farouk Soussa, chief economist for the Middle East at Citi.

Read More: The million-dollar bet on an energy rebound

Soussa expects governments to achieve this by promoting the private sector through corporate and tax reforms as well as increased public-private partnerships. This could result in greater privatization overall and harmonizes with financial market reforms to improve the mobilization of private capital towards investments, he said.

He also anticipates officials to raise non-oil revenues to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to oil prices: “These aims necessitate austerity measures similar to those which destabilized the social and political balance on Europe’s fringes in recent years…but these are inevitable feature of sustainable economies.”

High chances of an Iran deal

The slide in oil prices makes chances of a deal between the P5+1 countries and Iran more likely by the new June 2015 deadline, according to Citi.

“Projected Iranian revenues for next year will have fallen by almost a quarter since the 24 November deadline passed, putting substantial pressure on Iran’s already sanction-battered and fragile economy. This is likely to give further negotiating space to President Rouhani and his team, and less influence to Tehran’s hardliners who oppose any sort of deal with the United States,” Soussa said.

Read More: India to reap $12B budget windfall from oil slide

However, Citi notes that a deal with Iran is two-sided as it could also hurt regional oil exporters. If sanctions against Tehran were rolled back, increased quantities of Iranian oil could surface in international markets, depressing crude prices even further.

The bigger picture

Citi’s two benefits are a tiny silver lining to the plethora of negative consequences faced by the resource-rich region from Brent crude’s 45 percent year-to-date decline. Most analysts see lower prices doing more harm than good for both exporters and importers alike.

“Most Middle Eastern governments are not going to get the revenues they require for their budgets, so it [cheap oil] could put political and domestic pressure on them, especially with the ISIS issues in Syria and Iraq,” said Barry Dawes, head of resources at Paradigm Securities.

Read More: Oil could have markets over a barrel as Fed looms

The argument is that the headwinds faced by exporting nations in the Gulf will also hurt importers like Egypt in the form of diminished aid and investment.

“Prices at these levels are not geopolitically sustainable. If you look at the break-even fiscal budget for most OEPC nations, all but two are well above USD 80 and several are above USD 100. That’s what it takes to keep the Arab Spring and civil unrest at bay. Even Saudi Arabia, with their large fiscal reserves, won’t be able to handle current prices for too long,” Gina Sanchez, chairwoman and founder of Chantico Global told CNBC earlier this month. 

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Asian indices extend selloff on oil’s rout, except Shanghai

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Asian equity markets were largely lower in Tuesday’s morning session, tracking a tumble on Wall Street overnight, and after latest data added to concerns about slowing activity in the world’s second-largest economy.

The flash HSBC/Markit China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to 49.5 from a final reading of 50 in November, contracting for the first time in seven months. The 50-point level separates growth from contraction.

Overnight, US stocks finished lower, topping off a wild ride that had the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading in a more than 300-point range on either side of neutral as crude prices came under renewed selling pressure.

US crude futures were trading on Tuesday below USD 56 a barrel and near a 5-year low hit in the prior session, dropping for a fifth session after the UAE oil minister said there was no need for an emergency OPEC meeting to support prices. London Brent crude for January delivery was untraded yet, after settling down 79 cents at USD 61.06.

Nikkei skids 1.9 percent

Japan’s key Nikkei 225 index retreated below the 17,000 level in early trade, touching a five-week low, on the back of a stronger yen.

As a result, exporters started the day on the back foot. Suzuki Motor plunged 4 percent while Nissan and Nintendo slumped 2.2 and 3.2 percent each.

Heavyweight components Fast Retailing and Softbank also 2 percent, respectively.

Mainland bourses mixed

China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index reversed opening losses to rocket up 0.7 percent as a disappointing preliminary reading on the country’s manufacturing activity boosed expectations that more stimulus measures may be unveiled to avoid a sharper slowdown.

Financials led gains; CITIC Securities rose the maximum allowable 10 percent while Haitong Securities and Huatai Securities surged more than 7 percent each.

However, infrastructure plays traded lower, despite new supportive measures from authorities. Beijing approved fresh infrastructure projects worth USD 31 billion, which includes a third airport in the capital and 5 roads in the southern and central region. China Railway Group receded 2 percent while Anhui Conch Cement shed 0.5 percent.

In Hong Kong, the key Hang Seng index opened 1 percent lower on Tuesday.

ASX drops 0.4 percent

Australia’s benchmark S&P ASX 200 index traded lower, tracking weakness in the US overnight and the relentless slide in energy prices.

Commodity stocks were under pressure, particularly oil and gas producers. Santos tanked nearly 2 percent, while Woodside Petroleum and Oil Search lost 1.9 percent each. Iron ore miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto also traded 2.9 and 1.2 percent lower, respectively.

Outdoor clothing firm SurfStitch debuted at a small discount in Australia after raising AUSD 83 million (USD 68.24 million) in an initial public offering.

The Australian dollar was relatively unchanged against the US dollar after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting revealed that the central bank felt a further decline in the local currency was needed to help cushion the economy from falling resource prices.

Meanwhile, focus is on Australia’s hostage incident. Heavily armed police stormed into the cafe early Tuesday morning and freed a number of hostages held there, ending a sixteen-hour siege in which three people including the attacker were killed. A police source named the hostage taker as Man Haron Monis, an Iranian refugee and self-styled shiekh who was charged last year with being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife.

Kospi loses 0.3 percent

South Korean shares mirrored losses in its Asian peers to start off Tuesday near an eight-and-a-half-week session low hit in Monday’s session.

Electronics giant Samsung Electronics was in focus after data showed that it continued to lose market share to rivals like Apple, Xiaomi and Huawei in the third quarter of 2014, in countries like China. Shares of the South Korean firm opened marginally higher on Tuesday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow