Gujarat Gas gains over 5.5% even as street divided over prospects post earnings
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
With propane forward curve weak, Jefferies sees limited earnings upside from higher volumes.
Shares of Gujarat Gas Ltd jumped nearly 6 percent on Thursday as the city gas distribution company reported better than expected gas volumes for the March quarter.
Analysts, however, have mixed views on the company, which saw a volume recovery along with a decline in margins and consolidated net profit in the last quarter of financial year 2023.
Gujarat Gas on Wednesday posted a 16 percent decline in net profit to Rs 370.50 crore in the March quarter from Rs 444.39 crore in the year ago quarter. Revenue from operations also declined to Rs 4,073.82 crore from Rs 4,773.37 crore a year ago. Operating profit declined to Rs 476.64 crore from Rs 586.69 crore in the same quarter last year.
Morgan Stanley, assigned an overweight rating on Gujarat Gas with a price target of Rs 564 per share, a potential upside of around 21 percent on higher gas volumes.
The brokerage noted that industrial gas volumes surprised while the company’s guidance on volumes was also higher. Recovery in chemical demand helped normalise the spread between LNG & alternative fuels like propane, in favour of gas. Investor skepticism remains, but see a good path to recovery, Morgan Stanley stated.
Macquarie sees around 8 percent upside to Gujarat Gas with a price target of Rs 500 as gas volumes were above expectations. The brokerage is neutral on the stock.
Macquarie expects lower LNG prices to drive volume recovery for the company. It mentioned that though margins were moderate in the last quarter, sustained volume growth is required to drive re-rating.
“Key up/downside risks are related to sustained low LNG prices & a pick-up in volumes,” the brokerage mentioned.
JP Morgan, however, assigned an ‘Underweight’ rating to the stock with a price target of Rs 350 against the Wednesday’s close of Rs 463 per share as it expressed concerns over a decline in margins.
The brokerage noted that though volumes improved, margins have declined sequentially and underperformance continued in the last quarter.
“While company has been agile in its pricing strategy, competition from propane continues to be stark. PNG industrial volumes are still down 44 percent from its peak,” JP Morgan stated.
Jefferies assigned an underperform rating on Gujarat Gas with a price target of Rs 420.
The brokerage also noted that Gujarat Gas was defending its volume in the Morbi market by compromising on margins and compensating for that in non-Morbi (higher retail price) and CNG (cheaper feedstock) segments.
With propane forward curve weak, Jefferies sees limited earnings upside from higher volumes.
Shares of Gujarat Gas ended 5.6 percent higher at Rs 488.75.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow