Will customs duty cut increase gold demand among investors?
Summary
With this announcement, Vaibhav Saraf, director, Aisshpra Gems and Jewels believes that demand will get a major boost due to correction in the gold prices following the slash in duties.
The government, while presenting Union Budget 2021-22, proposed to slash import duties on gold and silver to 7.5 percent from 12.5 percent. However, it also imposed a 2.5 percent cess – a separate tax – on the imports.
After the changes, gold imports would effectively attract a 10.75 percent tax.
With this announcement, Vaibhav Saraf, director, Aisshpra Gems and Jewels believes that demand will get a major boost due to correction in the gold prices following the slash in duties.
Ashraf Rizvi, founder and CEO of Digital Swiss Gold (DSG) and Gilded seconds Saraf’s thoughts and added, “The Union budget was quite positive for the economy and the reduction in import duties will surely increase gold demand relative to 2020. In addition, the pent up demand due to the impact of COVID-19 coupled with the positive effects of large scale vaccinations in India is likely to increase Indian gold demand to levels approaching or even eclipsing that of 2019.”
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Further, Rizvi said his analysis of data from the last 50 years shows that the rupee has lost over 95 percent of its value while savings in bank deposits have barely kept up with inflation.
“We found that the value of rupee has depreciated by over 11 percent y-o-y relative to gold. Gold not being a fiat asset provides investors protection against currency devaluations. As a result of ongoing currency depreciation across the world, gold has been a very good investment for Indians. Gold is a global non-fiat asset that is impacted by economic developments across the world, therefore, it is expected to have some volatility in prices on a daily basis,” he suggests.
It must be noted that the rupee-dollar equation has a role to play in Indian gold rates. Gold is largely imported and hence, if the rupee weakens against the dollar, gold prices will likely appreciate in rupee terms.
Prices of gold will remain in focus till there is complete clarity on the vaccination drive across the world, its efficacy and global economic recovery.
Meanwhile, Ishu Datwani, founder, ANMOL believes that the actual drop in the price is not substantial to really kickstart demand just because of the drop in price – but, because there are weddings, markets opening up businesses doing better, they are seeing consumers flocking to the store to buy jewelry.
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