Pakistan economic and political crisis spirals on | Why the Shehbaz Sharif govt wants to delay Punjab polls

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Pakistan is in dire need of money as well as political stability. However, the country is now witnessing intense political drama with the ruling coalition government trying to delay the polls in Punjab province amid the acute economic crisis. The Shehbaz Sharif government has reportedly come up with a plan to do so even as Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is saying it is “open to ‘constitutional amendment’ for one-time extension in poll date”.

What’s the issue

Following the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s verdict on the Punjab election, the country’s election commission announced that it will hold the polls in the politically crucial province on May 14.

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A three-member bench of the court, led by Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, fixed May 14 as the new date for elections to the Punjab Assembly on Tuesday. The court had then quashed the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) decision to extend the polls date from April 10 to October 8.

The development came a day after the Supreme Court declared as “unconstitutional” the ECP’s earlier decision to postpone elections in Punjab, in a major blow to the federal government that has been trying to delay the election.

The Punjab assembly was dissolved on January 13 and elections are required to be held within 90 days. However, it was not possible to meet the deadline due to political wrangling and the Supreme Court allowed a short delay.

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Why does the Pakistan government want a delay in polls?

The government has cited security issues and the economic crisis for the same.

Security issues

The Pakistan government had in mid-March denied offering any help with the security during elections citing the “prevalent security situation within the country and on the borders”. In the past few months, the country saw several terror attacks that targeted the police in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and areas bordering Afghanistan.

Later, a huge uproar and nationwide protests over former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s arrest challenged Pakistan’s security further. Rangers were allegedly deployed to disperse the thousands of people who had gathered outside Khan’s residence, causing a major security issue in the area.

Now, the Supreme Court further demanded that the federal government must “make available all necessary personnel” – whether from the armed forces, rangers and all other forces under “the direct, indirect or ultimate command and control of the said government”, as per the requirement of the ECP for security and other purposes related to the general elections.

Economic crisis

Pakistan has been spiraling deep into an economic crisis, with the nation’s finances taking a major hit in the past few months. The situation in the country has turned worse and has been affecting the poor the most. Several videos on social media show hundreds fighting for a bag of free flour provided by the government. As many as 16 people have died in such clashes so far.

While the Pakistani rupee (PKR) has plunged to 287.85 against the dollar (as of April 5), the foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stood at $4.2 billion as of March 24, worth three-four weeks of import. To tackle inflation in the country, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to increase the policy rate by 100 basis points to 21 percent this week.

Amid this crisis, Pakistan’s Supreme Court directed the government to release election funds worth PKR 21 billion to the ECP by April 10 for elections to the assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Dawn reported. The court even warned that “if the funds have not been provided or there is a shortfall, as the case may be, the court may make such orders and give such directions as are deemed appropriate to such person or authority as necessary in this regard.”

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Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif even described the decision of the three-member Supreme Court bench to hold polls on May 14 as “a mockery of the Constitution and laws”.

In an apparent bid to deviate from the SC verdict, the ruling coalition is likely to table a resolution in Pakistan Parliament to endorse the government’s stance, Dawn reported.

The government is also considered filing a reference against the three judges of the Supreme Court — Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial, Justice Ijazul Ahsan and Justice Munib Akhtar — who were part of the bench that fixed May 14 as the date for polls in Punjab.

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The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) leaders held a meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, wherein proposals to delay the Punjab polls were discussed.

Meanwhile, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah told Geo News “the meeting endorsed that the verdict of the three-member bench was a decision of minority judges”.

This was because four judges of the Supreme Court had already given their judgement against taking suo motu notice in the case, the report said. The government had been demanding a full court to hear the case.

Amid the upheaval, PTI leader Asad Qaiser called on the government to “publicly announce its readiness to engage in negotiations with the PTI”. He also expressed his party’s willingness to consider constitutional amendments for adjustments to the election schedule beyond the 90-day requirement under the law, Dawn reported.

He called for “national unity in creating an environment that was conducive to fair and transparent elections, and acceptable to all stakeholders”. He said: “…we will sit and settle the matters together — this is the need of the hour that political leaders talk things out.”

Why is political stability important for Pakistan

Pakistan needs to be politically stable in order to deal with its economic crisis which requires stringent policy decisions by lawmakers and authorities. It is believed that constant political chaos “may undermine a coherent and timely policy response.”

Notably, no Pakistani PM has completed a full five-year term in office. Maintaining the record, Shehbaz Sharif took over, ousting Imran Khan in 2022. Ever since, the latter has been fighting tooth and nail to bring the Sharif government down.

Moreover, the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition fear defeat in the elections and have argued that they lost their political capital mainly because they have been trying to fix the mistakes made by the Imran Khan government, the Diplomat reported.

Now, the current government’s tenure will end in August this year, enabling a special caretaker government to take charge for up to 90 days in a bid to ensure free and fair elections.

“However, the caretaker government is not empowered to sign an IMF (International Monetary Fund) pact, raising the question of whether the government and Opposition can cooperate on a joint pledge to push through any IMF demands in order to avert a default,” Reuters reported. Pakistan and the IMF are currently negotiating a bailout deal worth $1.1 billion.

Experts believe that different political parties must solve the problem together rather than changing the government altogether. They also argue that “Pakistan has leadership issues”.

Amir Jahangir, Chief Executive Officer at Mishal Pakistan, told Moneycontrol that “there’s no Opposition in the Pakistan assembly and therefore, there’s no accountability of the current government”.

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RBI slaps fine of Rs 6.8 crore on Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, April 6, imposed a fine of Rs 6.77 crore on non-banking finance company Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd (MMFSL) for non-compliance with regulatory norms.

The penalty has been imposed on MMFSL for non-compliance with the systemically important non-deposit-taking company and deposit-taking company directions issued by RBI.

“This action is based on the deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or agreement entered into by the company with its customers,” the central bank said in a press release.

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According to the apex bank, the statutory inspection of the company was conducted by RBI with reference to its financial position on March 31, 2019, and March 31, 2020.

“An examination of the Risk Assessment Report, Inspection Reports and all related correspondence pertaining to the same revealed, inter alia, non-compliance by the company with the RBI directions on fair practices relating to disclosure of annualised rate of interest charged on loans to the borrowers at the time of sanction and failure to give notice of change in terms and conditions of loan to its borrowers, when it charged higher rate of interest than what was communicated at the time of sanction, during financial years 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21,” the central bank said.

Further, a notice was issued to the company advising it to show cause as to why a penalty should not be imposed on it for failure to comply with the RBI directions.

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“After considering the company’s reply to the notice, oral submissions made during the personal hearing and on examination of additional submissions made by it, RBI came to the conclusion that the charge of non-compliance with the aforesaid RBI directions was substantiated and warranted imposition of monetary penalty,” the apex bank said.

This penalty has been imposed in the exercise of powers vested in RBI under the provisions of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, it added.

Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services ended at Rs 252.30, up by Rs 12.70, or 5.30 percent on the BSE.

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Objective of online gaming rules is not to police but to regulate a sliver of it: Rajeev Chandrasekhar

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In a conversation with CNBC-TV18 about the new online gaming rules introduced under the IT rules, Minister of State for Electronics and IT, Rajeev Chandrasekhar said that the objective of the online gaming rules is not to police online gaming but to regulate a sliver of it.

The government wants the Indian online gaming industry to grow into a multi-billion dollar ecosystem in the coming years.

“The whole online gaming space is a multi-billion-dollar opportunity for Indian startups and young Indians all over the country. Therefore, our whole objective is not to be policing online gaming, but certainly to regulate one small sliver of it,” the minister said.

Chandrasekhar also said that the government and the industry agreed that the government should not be directly involved in governing the online gaming industry. The online gaming rules are consistent with state rules that want to stop or curtail betting and wagering.

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“We are very clear, we do not want the Indian internet to have something as harmful as betting, whether they are foreign platforms or Indian platforms,” said Chandrasekhar.

The rules ensure that there will be no surrogate advertising by companies that promote betting online. The minister stressed the need for KYC (Know Your Customer) to ensure that no money laundering is involved through online gaming.

Under the new rules, the permissibility of online gaming will be predicated on whether wagering is involved in the game. If an online game deals with real money and involves wagering, it will not be permitted.

Chandrasekhar emphasised that the online gaming ecosystem is considered an integral part of the digital and innovation ecosystem in India. The new online gaming rules aim to create a stable and consistent framework for startups in the online gaming industry.

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Policybazaar records 87% surge in customers opting for pre-existing diseases coverage in Q4 FY23

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Insurance aggregator Policybazaar on Thursday said that it has reported a significant surge in the share of customers opting for pre-existing diseases coverage in Q4 of the financial year that ended o March 31, 2023. According to the consumer insights provided by the brand, there has been an 87 percent increase in the number of customers opting for this coverage option as compared to the same quarter last year.

The data analysed by Policybazaar is based on the records of over 1 lakh health insurance customers during the period stated. The insights reveal that while Q4 FY22 saw only 17 percent of customers buying coverage for pre-existing conditions, the number has now doubled to 32 percent this year.

Though alarming, the figures also represent a compelling need for adequate coverage as well as growing consumer awareness regarding new-age health insurance products amid shifting health dynamics, Insurance aggregator said.

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On the occasion of World Health Day, Policybazaar’s analysis highlighted the changing preferences of consumers when it comes to health insurance. Some notable insights are:

Non-metros fare better: The health insurance coverage in non-metro cities recorded 41 percent and 37 percent increase in customers from tier-2 and tier-3 cities, respectively, in contrast to a 24 percent uptick in tier-1 cities. The increase also indicated towards improved access to protection products through online financial services.

Multi-year policies in demand: The share of multi-year policies in the overall market has increased from 24 percent to 68 percent. The surge is due to an average 17 percent increase in premiums for popular plans by insurance companies. The data also shows that 42 percent of customers are willing to pay upfront for three years of coverage, in order to protect themselves from future premium hikes. This trend is particularly prevalent in the health insurance sector, where rising healthcare costs have put a strain on individuals and families.

Rise in high-sum insured policies: Consumers are increasingly opting for high-sum insured policies as protection against the rising cost of medical treatment. The data showed a 56 percentincrease in the number of customers opting for coverage higher than Rs 5 lakhs, with 61 percent of customers choosing this level of coverage in Q4 FY23, compared to only 39 percent in Q4 FY22. Conversely, the number of customers choosing a sum insured of less than Rs 5 lakhs has declined by 36 percent.

Top features demanded: Not only this, the customers are also showing interest a growing interest in insurance riders that provide additional coverage and benefits. Recent data suggests that the rider for a higher cover amount ranks at the top of the most-requested features by consumers. Other popular riders are coverage for annual health check-ups and OPD (outpatient department). Around 60 percent of the customers look for an annual health check-up feature in their policies, showcasing a growing inclination towards preventive healthcare.

Wellness benefits are sought-after: The demand for preventive healthcare is also reflected in the high demand for wellness benefits wherein customers are entitled to discounts or benefits upon renewal for meeting the fitness criteria in their policy. As many as 45 percent of customers look for wellness benefits, which not only characterizes growing consumer awareness for healthcare but also for new-age features in health insurance products.

As per Policybazaar, the other features that emerged as popular choices in the findings were locking premium as per age, 7x higher sum assured, unlimited restoration benefit and low or no waiting period for senior citizens. “These innovative features make health insurance plans more flexible and customizable to suit changing consumer needs,” it said.

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Sarbvir Singh, Joint Group CEO, Policybazaar.com, said, “As a principle, Policybazaar has always been guided by the consumer, and so we develop new-age solutions that align with dynamic consumer needs. With the insurance industry evolving to focus on prevention as well as protection, these consumer insights also reflect a growing appetite for wellness and preventive healthcare features. The change in consumer sentiment is also evident with tier-2 & tier-3 cities showcasing a higher inclination for health insurance protection.

“We, along with our insurer partners, will continue to leverage technology to make insurance more accessible, affordable and relatable for our consumers,” he added.

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‘RBI has taken a good call’: Nirmala Sitharaman on surprise rate hike pause

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, April 6, welcomed the RBI’s decision to keep the benchmark rate unchanged. “RBI has taken a good call, I think,” she said. The RBI’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the repurchase or repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, pledged to hike the interest rates again if needed, saying the decision to pause was “for this meeting only.”

The MPC also decided to retain a policy stance focused on “withdrawal of accommodation” to “ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.” That had been its approach since it started tightening in May 2022.

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“The MPC unanimously decided to keep rates unchanged in this meeting with readiness to act if the situation so warrants,” Das said announcing the decisions of the MPC.

“The MPC will not hesitate to take further action as may be required in its future meetings.” RBI has raised interest rates by a total of 250 basis points since May 2022.

It marginally upped its forecast of India’s GDP growth in the current fiscal year starting April 1 to 6.5 percent from the 6.4 percent forecast earlier. This compares with an expected 7 percent growth in 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023) fiscal.

The central bank lowered its inflation forecast to 5.2 percent for 2023-24 from 5.3 percent, with Das saying “war against inflation has to continue.” He said it was necessary to evaluate the cumulative impact of past interest rate hikes.

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The surprise pause comes even as core inflation stayed above 6 percent for 17 straight months. “Our job is not yet finished and the war against inflation has to continue until we see a durable decline in inflation closer to the target,” he said.

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NCF draft proposes biannual board exams and choice-based courses for school students, details here

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The draft National Curriculum Framework (NCF) for School Education 2023 is likely to suggest board examinations twice a year, a semester system for Class 12, and the freedom for students to choose a combination of science and humanities subjects, The Indian Express reported.

The structure of the curriculum for classes 9 and 10 will significantly change once the proposals, suggested by a 12-member steering committee led by former ISRO chairperson K Kasturirangan, are approved.

Currently, Class 10 students must pass at least five subjects across the majority of boards, including CBSE. For students in Class 10, the committee is expected to suggest an annual system. The students may be required to clear 8 papers under the new framework.

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The NCF stated that class X and XII final exams should give a reliable picture of student performance despite the fact that they primarily test rote memory and a very limited range of competencies and there is no provision for a second chance if any student skips the exam, The Times of India reported.

Changes will be made to textbooks based on the new NCF, beginning with those published by the NCERT and used in CBSE-affiliated institutions. Other aspects of the classroom will also be changed, including the topics taught, the mode of teaching, and how assessments are done using the NEP 2020 framework, the report added.

The NCF steering committee is likely to suggest that students complete 16 “choice-based courses” in Classes 11 and 12. “So, in theory, the students will have the freedom to pursue Physics, History and Mathematics, if they want,” a source was quoted as saying by The Indian Express.

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A student will be required to take 16 elective courses in at least three curricular areas (out of eight) – Humanities, Science, Social Science, Maths and Computing, Vocational Education, Sports and inter-disciplinary streams.

Recently, some of the curricula were removed from NCERT textbooks for Classes 6 through 12 as part of the rationalisation based on a report from an expert group that was released in June last year.

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Titan clocks 25% revenue growth in Q4 — watches & wearables best performer

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Tata Group company Titan Company Ltd on Thursday, April 6, said it recorded another quarter of healthy double-digit growth across all of its key businesses.

In an exchange filing, the company said its revenues grew 25 percent YoY aided by higher growth contributions from watches and wearables and emerging businesses.

It said, “The base quarter of Q4FY22 carried the adverse impacts of partial lockdowns due to the Omicron wave and weak consumer sentiments caused by a fragile geo-political situation due to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.”

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The company said it is making healthy progress in retail store expansion both domestically and overseas. Titan’s retail network presence (including CaratLane) stands at 2,710 stores as of the end of the quarter.

The jewellery division clocked 23 percent YoY growth over a partially disrupted base quarter of Q4FY22. The robust performance was mostly led by buyer growths, both new and repeat and an increase in ticket size.

For the watches and wearables division, the trajectory of 41 percent YoY growth was underpinned by strong growth in the analog watches segment and almost tripling of revenues from wearables. Both of these led to the business hitting a significant milestone of over Rs 5,000 crore in uniform consumer price sales for FY23.

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The eye care division recorded a healthy sales growth of 22 percent YoY. The network expansion carried out during the course of the year helped Titan Eye+ stores achieve healthy double-digit growth YoY. The fragrances and fashion accessories (F&FA) grew 31 percent YoY driven by 35 percent growth in fragrances and 24 percent growth in fashion accessories.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RCB vs KKR highlights: Varun Chakravarthy and Suyash Sharma destroy Royal Challengers Bangalore; KKR won by 81 runs

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The visitors come into this game on the back of a thumping victory against the Mumbai Indians (MI) on Sunday. Powered by the opening duo of Faf du Plessis (73) and Virat Kohli (82), Bangalore chased down 172 in merely 16.2 overs as they kicked off the campaign on a strong note.

On the other hand, KKR failed to chase down their revised target of 154 against the Punjab Kings (PBKS) on Saturday. The Nitish Rana-led side will be hoping that a return to their home ground will bring about a change in their fortunes as the team deals with the absence of their regular skipper Shreyas Iyer this season.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Jaguar Land Rover Q4 retail sales rise 30% as chip crunch eases, Range Rover top draw

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Tata Motors-owned Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) on Thursday, April 6, reported increased sales for the fourth quarter of FY23 and for the full financial year, reflecting a continuation of the gradual improvement in chip and other supply constraints.

The retail sales for the fourth quarter were 102,889 units (including the Chery Jaguar Land Rover China joint venture), up 21 percent from the prior quarter ending December 31, 2022, and up 30 percent compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Compared to the last fiscal, retail volumes were higher in all markets led by Europe (47 percent), the UK (42 percent), China (29 percent), Overseas (29 percent) and North America (12 percent), the company said in an exchange filing.

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In terms of wholesale volumes for the fourth quarter, JLR sold 94,649 units (excluding the Chery Jaguar Land Rover China joint venture), up 19 percent compared to the prior quarter ending December 31, 2022, and 24 percent compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Compared to the prior year, wholesale volumes were higher in all markets, led by overseas (62 percent), UK (24 percent), Europe (22 percent), China (17 percent), and North America (2 percent). For the full year ended March 31, 2023, wholesales (excluding China joint venture) were 321,362, up 9 percent, and retails were 354,662, down 6 percent.

Also, the order book remained strong, with about 200,000 client orders at the quarter end, about 15,000 lower than December 31, 2022, reflecting the higher retails this quarter. Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender demand remain particularly strong, representing 76 percent of the order book.

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The company said Range Rover and Range Rover Sport production volumes continued to increase, with 32,950 wholesale units in the quarter, up from 28,000 in Q3. Defender wholesale volumes increased to 27,513 units as JLR continued to operate a third shift at the Nitra plant, up from 23,816 in Q3.

On a preliminary basis, JLR’s free cash flow is estimated to be over 800 million pounds in the fourth quarter and over 500 million pounds for the full year, based on a preliminary estimated cash balance of over 3.7 billion pounds and net debt of around 3 billion pounds, it said.

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd ended at Rs 437.55, up by Rs 11.15, or 2.61 percent on the BSE.

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Consumer confidence on recovery track from historic low in mid -2021: RBI report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, April 6, released the results of its bi-monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) of March 2023. The report said consumer confidence continues to recover from the historic low recorded in mid-2021, though it still has some way to go.

The report said the Current Situation Index (CSI) rose by 2.2 points on account of improved perception on general economic situation, employment, and household income.

The data from the report showed consumers are optimistic about the employment outlook and that the sentiments on employment are nearing the levels seen around mid-2019. It further added that  more than half of the respondents expect the employment scenario to improve over the next one year.

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Moreover, household assessment of inflation conditions improved for the current, period reflecting greater confidence in the economy.

The survey obtains current perceptions (vis-a-vis a year ago) and one-year-ahead expectations on the general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, and income and spending across 19 major cities of India. The RBI said the latest round of the survey was conducted during March 2-11 this year, covering 6,075 respondents, in which female respondents accounted for 52.3 percent of this sample.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow