5 Minutes Read

Why markets are getting comfortable with higher rates

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The bulls got some ammunition as July manufacturing report for the US came in stronger than expected, with strong showings for new orders, as well as employment.

For a good part of this earnings season, we’ve heard comments from companies that lackluster earnings in the first half should improve in the second half, along with the economy.

Today, the bulls got some ammunition as July manufacturing report for the US came in stronger than expected, with strong showings for new orders, as well as employment.

It wasn’t just in the US: manufacturing reports in Europe and China were also a bit better than expected.

The major indices reacting by moving to historic highs…that’s a bit of a surprise considering interest rates (yields on 10-year Treasury bonds) have moved up as well. In the past, higher rates have rattled stocks.

But maybe that’s changing.

Have you noticed the pattern this week:
• ADP stronger than expected: rates higher, markets up
• ISM stronger than expected: rates higher, markets up
• Jobs report: ?

That’s the big question: How will the markets react if the jobs report comes in a little stronger than expected, say, over 200,000 jobs created.
If that happens, and rates go up while the stock market goes up or even stays even, that will be a sure sign the trading community is getting comfortable with higher rates.

Exxon Mobil: here’s the problem in a nutshell…Exxon’s big miss this morning took everyone by surprise. A lot of people shrugged it off, arguing that misses because of refinery shutdowns (they are typical in the summer) are nothing new.

But it’s worse than that. The entire report was “a clunker” as one prominent oil analyst called it, missing on all sorts of metrics, including gas production.
But it’s worse than even that. Here’s the problem: big oil can’t grow. They can’t get enough oil to replace what is being used. Exxon, for example, produces about four million barrels a day (nearly five percent of the world’s output), but that’s declining about six percent a year, or a loss of 240,000 barrels.

Think about that. Just to stand still, they have to grow at least six percent. You know how hard that is? A decent well will throw off maybe 500 barrels a day (1,000 is a gusher), and then typically declines 30 percent in the following year. You have to find a lot of wells to replace 240,000 barrels a day!

Then there’s geography. It’s true the US has found new sources, particularly for natural gas, but don’t kid yourself. Much of the world’s oil is in politically difficult areas. The top five producers remain Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela, as well as Russia.

Throw in higher taxes from everyone, you have a real problem: 1) no growth, 2) no growth in returns.

What to do? The obvious answer is to increase buybacks, but buybacks for Exxon have been shrinking. The other choice is to increase dividends. Exxon now pays a 2.7 percent dividend, well above the 1.7 percent the S&P 500 pays, after raising it 11 percent in April. But there have been calls for an even higher dividend. I wouldn’t be surprised if they accommodated.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Will DBS, Danamon deal collapse curb Indonesia M&A?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The failure of Bank Danamon and DBS may curb Indonesian mergers and acquisitions. It could deter other foreignbanks from showing interest in the banking sector, Fitch Ratings said.

A decision by Southeast Asia`s biggest bank to quit a year-long pursuit of Indonesia`s Bank Danamon highlights how tough the country`s regulatory framework is and could deter other foreign banks from showing interest in the banking sector, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday.


Singapore lender DBS on Wednesday walked away from a USD 7.2 billion deal to buy Bank Danamon in what would have been Southeast Asia`s largest banking takeover.


“We believe the collapse of the deal is likely to discourage some long-term foreign buyers looking to establish and build a local franchise,” Fitch said in a report.


DBS said regulatory hurdles were the main reason from walking away from the deal, with Jakarta capping foreign ownership of banks at 40 percent – much lower than DBS`s plan to buy a 67 percent stake.


Fitch said that owning a minority stake in Danamon would have made it difficult for DBS to achieve the same degree of integration in Indonesia that it has with its subsidiaries elsewhere in the region.


“Without majority control, no bank or any company would like that,” Kevin Kwek, senior analyst at the brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein, told CNBC Asia`s “Cash Flow.”


“You don`t have control and some of the other banks that already have stakes would equally be concerned as to whether any changes going forward would be retro-active and if they were, you would certainly take out a lot of interest in the local banking sector,” he said.


Investment hit


The collapse of the bank deal is bad timing for Indonesia, where the foreign investment outlook has been hit by a spike in currency volatility, protectionist measures such as the tightening of import quotas, duties on exports of raw minerals and restrictions on foreign ownership of local mining firms.


Indonesia, once the darling of foreign investors, has also suffered from a fall in the appeal of emerging markets generally. Foreign investors have pulled roughly USD 2 billion from the stock market throughout June, according to government data.


There is concern that tighter control of the resource sector could spread to other areas.


“There`s the sense that as a foreign player, you could end up in a situation where the playing field is not as level as you like,” said Economist Intelligence Unit CEO Robin Bew.


“It`s not sensible because places like Indonesia are going to need to be attractive to foreign capital, especially at this time when we are seeing growth slowing across the world,” Bew added.
Still, Fitch said Indonesia`s banking sector remained attractive.


“The country has low credit penetration relative to other fast-growing markets (India and China), an expanding middle class, a resilient economy, and high net interest margins,” it said.


“The cap on Indonesian bank ownership of up to 40 percent is still high by regional comparison. But foreign capital is necessary for the market to fulfil its potential; and can also bring better risk, transparency and governance discipline to the banking sector,” Fitch added.


Blessing in disguise?


DBS, which has been keen to get a bigger slice of the fast-growing Indonesian market , on Thursday posted a 10 percent rise in second-quarter profit. CEO Piyush Gupta said that the bank would focus on expanding its business in Indonesia without chasing acquisitions.


The strategy could be more successful than a Danamon acquisition would have been, analysts said.


“This is actually positive in the sense that DBS can now re-focus its energy and capital to building businesses that would have likely been put on hold pending a decision on the Danamon deal,” said Kwek at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US economy should be growing at 3-4%: Ex-Fed governor

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Former Federal Reserve governor Robert Heller said that the US economy had the potential to grow at 3-4 percent if authorities removed the constraints obstructing its potential.

The US economy has the ability to grow at a rate of 3-4 percent if policy makers removed the constraints obstructing its potential, former Federal governor Robert Heller told CNBC on Thursday.


Heller’s comments follow better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Wednesday, which showed the world`s largest economy expanded 1.7 percent growth in the second quarter from the year before, exceeding expectations of a 1 percent rise and an increase on the first quarter`s downwardly revised 1.1 percent.


“We may be out of the woods, but we are [still] walking in a mud field,” said Heller, who served on the Fed`s board from 1986 to 1989 under President Reagan.


“We are stuck in a range of 1-2 percent growth, which is not where we should be. If you would take some of the constraints off the US economy, it could be growing a lot faster at 3-4 percent,” he added.


Heller said one of the key constraints was restrictions on drilling activity on government-owned land which has prevented oil and gas companies from expanding at the pace they should be.


He also said the US economy had a number of untapped resources, including the large amount of unemployed people , together with hoards of corporate cash holdings sitting on the sidelines.


“US corporations have the largest cash holdings they have ever had, so the potential for growth is there but you`ve got to let it happen and not restrain it,” he added.


December taper?


On the ongoing debate over when the US central bank might scale back its USD 85 billion a month bond buying plan, which has kept markets transfixed since Fed chair Ben Bernanke first suggested it was on the cards in May, Heller said he expected tapering to commence in December, later than the broad consensus forecast of September.


“Probably the current Fed will want to do so [start tapering before the end of the year] so the new Fed chief who will take office at the end of January next year will not have to change policy at the first meeting,” he added.


Speculation has been rife over who might replace Bernanke when his term expires, with vice chair Janet Yellen and former Treasury Secretary under Clinton`s administration, Larry Summers, emerging as possible candidates.


Heller voiced concerns over whether Summers would be the best person for the role.


“Summers clearly is a very bright man but he also speaks his mind and he`s not exactly known to be the great consensus builder that Bernanke has been in his time,” he said.


“He might have a harder time holding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) together… if you were to get more dissent that would make policy making more difficult,” he added.


Heller told CNBC in June that Yellen was the most credible candidate for the job.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Are fears over China government debt overblown?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

China’s move to conduct a nation-wide audit of China’s local government loans has fuelled fears over the severity of the debt pile. But analysts believe that the concerns are overblown.

Beijing’s move to conduct a nation-wide audit of China`s local government loans this week has fueled fears over the severity of the state`s colossal debt pile, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoFA) has argued that the concerns are overblown.


According to economists at the bank, China`s local government debt, which is estimated to be around 15-16 trillion renminbi (RMB) (USD 2.5-2.6 trillion) as of the end of 2012, still stands at a very low debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 percent.


When combined with the central government debt, China`s total debt still measures 50 percent of GDP, which BoFA describes as a relatively healthy position compared to other highly leveraged economies like the US and Japan, which have debt to GDP ratios of around 100 percent and 175 percent, respectively.


In addition, its central bank`s cash savings, equivalent to 6 percent of GDP, places the central bank in strong position to weather any shocks, said the bank.


And even if a crisis situation were to arise, it would be manageable as almost all government debt is denominated in local currency and owned by domestic entities, meaning that “the PBoC can prevent a government debt crisis with its unlimited capability in liquidity supply,” the bank noted.


“We are not saying that markets should be complacent about local government debt, but we see little new news,” China economists Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi at BoFA wrote in a new report.


“We don`t think China is on the brink of a government debt crisis, especially if the new leaders can take sensible measures in coming years,” they added.


Local government debt is regarded as a key risk to the financial stability in China, with ratings agency Fitch cutting the country`s long-term local currency credit rating to A-plus from AA-minus earlier this year.


The audit order, which would be the country`s second-ever comprehensive review of the country`s spending, has rattled investors who are concerned that the leveraging situation in China may be a lot worse than previously thought.


But BofA says markets shouldn`t be too concerned, or read the measure as an “urgent” move.


“We believe the audit has been planned for several months as part of the new government`s mandate,” the note said. “We may take this audit as a first step in the new leaders` `kitchen sinking` move.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Will China PMI mark the end of negative data surprises?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The surprise from China’s purchasing manufacturer’s index (PMI) may be a result of improving business sentiment on the back of Beijing’s recent stimulus announcement.

The positive surprise in China`s official reading on the manufacturing sector Thursday is a result of improving business sentiment on the back of Beijing`s recent stimulus announcement, analysts told CNBC.


The government`s Purchasing Managers` Index (PMI), which rose to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in June and beating market expectations of 49.9 according to a Reuters poll, also marks the first sign of stabilization in the world`s second largest economy, they added.


The key 50 threshold demarcates expansion from contraction.


“Since mid-July Premier Li has made it very clear that his government will try to achieve the 7.5 percent growth target with some policy easing measures including more investment in infrastructure fixed asset investment,” Ting Lu, head of Greater China economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note.


“So the official PMI survey which was conducted late July could be impacted by the more positive sentiment,” he said.


Last week, the government unveiled initiatives to support growth including cutting taxes for some small and micro-sized enterprises and measures to stabilize exports and speed up railway investment.


According to Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist, Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole, this could be the end of negative surprises in the country`s economic data.


“This may mark the beginning of a turnaround in sentiment on China,” he said.


The changing sentiment could explain how investors shrugged off a separate private reading of the manufacturing activity, which was also out on Thursday, which showed a different picture of China`s economy.


The HSBC final China PMI fell to an 11-month low of 47.7 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with the flash estimate released last week.


But investors chose to focus on the official figure, pushing the Shanghai Composite up 1.1 percent, and the Hong Kong`s Hang Seng up 0.6 percent.


According to Lu of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as the economy shifts away from its dependence on exports, more attention should be paid to the official PMI.


“In our view, at this moment we should surely focus on the official PMI simply instead of the HSBC PMI because exports now only contribute 10 percent of China`s GDP,” Lu said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Betting on a Tokyo Olympic win? Stocks you may like to own

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

With Tokyo being one of the frontrunners for winning the bid for the 2020 Olympics, there might be some stocks that could do well if it wins the bid.

Tokyo is one of three cities in the running to host the 2020 Olympic Games and with a vote on the successful country due in September, there are a number of Japanese stocks that could do well if Tokyo wins the bid, says one equity strategist.


Well-known brands such as Canon, advertising firm Dentsu and security company Secom are among the companies that Ben Collett, head of Asian equities at Sunrise Brokers in Hong Kong, recommends investors snap up if they think Tokyo has a good chance of hosting the Games.


Japan`s capital city is going head-to-head with Madrid and Istanbul in the bid to host one of the world`s most famous sporting events, and according to media reports, Tokyo has a narrow edge over its rivals.


“Construction firms have been doing well in anticipation of Tokyo winning the bid and among the other names we think will do well include the big brands that will get exposure from sponsorship deals such as Softbank, Hitachi and Fujitsu ,” said Collett.


He said his firm did not take positions in these companies but had advised clients to buy them.


“We had recommended a short position in Fast Retailing, which we`ve taken off,” he said, referring to the Japanese retailer which runs the Uniqlo fashion chain.


Japan`s blue-chip Nikkei has been the best performing major equity market this year, with gains of about 30 percent.


A mix of aggressive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan, brighter economic prospects and a weak yen, have all propelled Japanese shares higher and a successful win for Tokyo in the 2020 Olympic bid could give the market an additional boost.


“There is an expectation that Tokyo will win the Olympic bid so there are a number of stocks you could buy to position for that,” said Collett. “If you have to narrow down the list then I would say Canon, Fast Retailing, Dentsu and Secom.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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As the world turns, BRICs no longer a slam dunk

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, often referred to as the BRICS, have dominated stock markets with stellar gains in the past decade, but their performance year-to-date has been miserable.

Once the darling of financial markets, the tables appear to have “flipped” for BRIC nations, analysts say, with one market watcher predicting a recession for the economies once famous for their fast growth.

Emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, often referred to as the BRICS, have dominated stock markets with stellar gains in the past decade, but their performance year-to-date has been miserable.


Also read: Investor sentiment weak; USD rally to hit EMs: Barclays

Instead, it’s the developed equity markets that have taken the spotlight this year, with many raking in double-digit gains.

“I think we’ve had a really strong bull market in emerging markets for many years. That era has ended and now, we’re going to get a very long bull market in European and American stocks,” said Clem Chambers, CEO of financial services website ADVFN.

“The BRIC story is over and the BRICS will go into recession. Like all things, there’s always a party going on somewhere and the party’s going to be in America and as an off-set, in Europe.”

So far this year, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index have notched up gains of over 18 percent. In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 index has rallied 11 percent and the Spanish Ibex is up 3.5 percent.

In contrast, China’s Shanghai Composite is down 12 percent, Brazil’s Bovespa has plunged over 20 percent and the MSCI emerging market index has shed about 10 percent.

According to Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, the improving conditions in the developed world are occurring even as headwinds build in the developing world, in what he has identified as a new “secular trend.”

“With the US, Europe and Japan rebuilding after a horrible decade (or two in the case of Japan), the key emerging market countries are looking a bit less bright,” said Oliver said in a note published on Wednesday.

“Risks around the Chinese economy appear to have increased after several years of rapid debt growth,” Oliver wrote, while “India, Brazil and Indonesia appear to be facing a less attractive growth and inflation [outlook].”

South America and Russia, meanwhile, are vulnerable to “the less favorable outlook for commodity prices,” he added.

Oliver stressed that the shift in secular patterns doesn’t signal alarm bells, but should prompt investors to be more selective in their emerging market picks.
“In particular commodity users such as the Asian region are generally more attractive than commodity suppliers such South America and Russia,” he said.

Chambers at ADVFN was more bearish, saying that he expected the investor shift away from the BRICS towards the world’s major economies to be a long-term trend.

“The new long-term trend will be ascending first-world in the same way as the old long term trend was descending first-world and an ascending BRICS. That has flipped now, and you’ll see China under pressure for a long time, India random as usual and Brazil in recession,” he said.


Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Tough times for the ‘biggest victim’ in smartphone war

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC is the “biggest victim” of the intensifying battle in the premium handset space, said Citi, and going by history, there is little scope for the struggling company to stage a turnaround.

Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC is the “biggest victim” of the intensifying battle in the premium handset space, said Citi, and going by history, there is little scope for the struggling company to stage a turnaround.


Following the company`s grim earnings announcement on Tuesday, Citi, which has a “sell” recommendation on HTC, cut its 12-month target price on the stock to 97 New Taiwan dollars (USD 3.23), from 134 New Taiwan dollars, previously. The revised target marks 39 percent downside from current levels.


“The overall high-end demand slowdown forced Samsung to get more aggressive on marketing dollars, which in turn forced other vendors such as Sony and LG to follow. However, HTC, constrained by more limited resources, was not able to follow, which makes [it] the biggest victim of high-end demand weakness,” Kevin Chang, analyst at Citi, wrote in a note published late Tuesday.


HTC shares traded limit-down on Wednesday, plunging almost 7 percent, on concerns over the company`s profitability after it warned a day earlier that it expects to post its first operating loss in the July-September quarter. The company said its operating margin in the third quarter may shrink to between zero and negative 8 percent, from 1.5 percent in the previous quarter.



HTC reported an 83 percent year-on-year drop in profit for the second quarter to 1.2 billion New Taiwan dollars.


Citi says HTC, which was a leader in Android smartphone sales in the US just a few years ago, will struggle to reverse its fortunes given rising competition among smartphone players and pressure to get more aggressive on pricing.


“Historically, we have not seen a handset company stage a successful comeback. Sony is probably the closest, and it took them around 5 years. Nokia, Blackberry, Motorola and LG are all still struggling,” Chang said.


“With high-end demand slowing and Apple`s big-screen iPhone likely in mid-2014, next year could be even tougher,” he added.


Citi was not the only bank to slash its target for the stock. Nomura, albeit less pessimistic on the company`s prospects, reduced its target price to 135 New Taiwan dollars from 180 New Taiwan dollars, saying that it was not convinced that the company`s new mid-tier products would help its margins. HTC has recently stepped up its focus on the mid-to-low cost segment, unveiling last month the Desire 200 – a smartphone targeted at price-sensitive consumers.


HTC shares have plummeted 47 percent year-to-date, compared to shares of rivals Samsung and Apple which have declined 16 and 15 percent, respectively, over the same period.


Related




 


Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Here’s what it means to be a middle class consumer

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The middle class: they are the world`s biggest consumer group and their growing spending power should push global consumer spending up by nearly a third by 2020, according to market research firm Euromonitor.

The middle class: they are the world`s biggest consumer group and their growing spending power should push global consumer spending up by nearly a third by 2020, according to market research firm Euromonitor.


So, what does it mean to be a middle class consumer?


A study released this week by Euromonitor defined “middle class” consumers as those with a household income in the range of 50 percent below a country`s average annual gross household income and 100 percent above a country`s average.


While consumer spending in developed markets grew by 2.6 percent annually in the five years to 2012 and should remain low through 2018, emerging markets consumer spending saw double-digit growth of 10.4 percent annually in the same period, Euromonitor said in its survey of 6,600 middle-class consumers in 16 developed and emerging markets.


“The past few decades have seen explosive growth in the middle class in emerging markets, as shoppers with new levels of disposable income are ready to spend and are optimistic about their future,” the study said.


About 26 percent of respondents in emerging markets said they intend to increase their overall spending in the next 12 months, while only about half that percentage plan to do the same in developed markets.


Most developed countries have been hurt by weak economic growth in recent years, prompting a change in shopping habits among the middle class, Euromonitor said.


“Regionally, the middle class in the US and Asia-Pacific are prioritizing savings most strongly at 50 percent plus. At the same time, Asia-Pacific respondents are twice as likely as the middle class in other regions to plan to increase their overall spending – 30 percent versus less than 15 percent,” Euromonitor said.



Key trend


One key trend among today`s middle class consumer is that they are “overwhelmingly” well-educated and higher studies are a key priority among the group, Euromonitor said.


“Nearly two thirds report holding at least a bachelor`s degree, if not higher levels of education at 19 percent, especially in emerging markets,” Euromonitor said. “Along with high levels of education, the majority of middle class consumers at 55 percent hold a full-time job, working at least 35 hours per week. Another 15 percent are self-employed.”


An increase in disposable income from higher education leading to well-paying jobs has left middle class consumers with “with enough income to spend on necessities and more left over to spend on small and large indulgences alike,” the report said.


Spending priorities


Holiday travel topped the list of middle-class spending priorities in the next 12 months.


According to the survey, 50 percent of respondents cited travel as a top spending priority, compared with 40 percent who cited savings and 30 percent that listed apparel.


Other spending priorities include money spent on a vehicle and paying down debt, at 28 and 27 percent respectively.


“Two or more automobiles are typical in Australia, France, Mexico, Spain and the US, while the majority of middle class households in China, Japan, Russia and Turkey own only one car,” Euromonitor said.


Consumer electronics are also a key area of spending for many middle class homes, especially those of “millennials” – born after 1980, the research firm said.


Watching television, browsing online and emailing are among the top five activities in middle class homes. More than 20 percent of middle-class consumers said they planned to spend on electronics in the next 12 months, Euromonitor said.


Related




 


Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Here’s what could really knock the yen back down

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

As Japan`s yen continued to strengthen against the dollar this week, some analysts suggested that further monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan was needed to put the currency back on its downward track.

As Japan`s yen continued to strengthen against the dollar this week, some analysts suggested that further monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan was needed to put the currency back on its downward track.


The yen was trading at 97.94 per dollar late on Tuesday, hovering near a one-month peak hit on Monday. It is up more than 3.5 percent from a high hit earlier in July.


“The price action on dollar/yen has been a bit worrying and this is looking a little bit like catching a falling knife,” Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac, told CNBC.


Aggressive monetary easing and optimism about Japan`s economic outlook have helped drive the yen lower against the dollar this year. Its weakness is a central part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe`s plans to revive the Japanese economy, which has been held back by two decades of deflation.


But some analysts warned that Abe`s economic policies have helped push the Japanese currency back up against the dollar in recent weeks, and that strength has dealt a blow to Japanese stocks. They said that if Japan`s policymakers are serious about delivering a weak yen, then they may have to step up their monetary stimulus efforts.



“Firmer data is being misinterpreted as a sign that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) won`t do any more stimulus. We think it will have to, and that should help weaken the yen,” said Mizuho Corporate Bank Market Economist Vishnu Varathan.


While the general tone of recent Japanese data has pointed to a pick-up in the economy, there have been some signs of weakness. Data on Tuesday for instance showed industrial output fell by a bigger-than-expected 3.3 percent in June, month-on-month, while household spending for the month fell 2 percent, despite expectations for a rise.


“The industrial production report is not good news for Abenomics, however it does suggest the BOJ will need to put its foot down slightly firmer on the easing peddle,” Chris Weston, chief markets strategist at trading firm IG, said in a note. Abenomics is the term now widely used to describe Abe`s radical economic policies.


According to Callow, it might be some time yet before the BOJ gives any more indication of its plans for Japanese monetary policy. The central bank in April said it would pump USD 1.4 trillion into the economy by the end of 2014 to help Japan get back on its feet.


“The Bank of Japan is pretty happy with the way the numbers are stacking up for the most part, and it needs more time, and I don`t think we`re going to get an exciting BOJ meeting until October, when it releases its semi-annual report,” said Callow.


Currency strategists are standing by their forecasts for a weakening in the yen long-term, especially amid signs Japanese investors are stepping up their buying of foreign assets.


“As long as data can stabilize and outflows out of Japan continue, the yen should head lower,” Callow said.


Related CNBC links




 


Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?