2024 Lok Sabha Elections | Why phase-3 is a tightrope walk for all parties

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections progress into their third phase, the political terrain becomes increasingly complex. This phase, encompassing 11 states and 93 seats, is crucial for shaping the parliamentary landscape. Historical data from the 2019 and 2014 elections suggests a favourable tilt towards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while presenting a formidable challenge for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

The battleground states in this phase include Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh—BJP’s bastions where the Congress and other opposition parties face an uphill battle. The electoral dynamics in these states are pivotal, as they could either reinforce the BJP’s dominance or signal a shift in the political winds.

In contrast, states like Maharashtra, Bihar, and Assam, though leaning towards the BJP, offer a glimmer of hope for the opposition, with a possibility of securing a good share of seats. The political equation here is more fluid, and the opposition’s strategy could play a decisive role in the final tally.

However, Karnataka presents a unique scenario. The recent controversy surrounding Prajwal Revanna, the grandson of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, has stirred the political pot. The BJP and its ally, the Janata Dal (Secular) or JDS, may find themselves navigating choppy waters as they contend with the fallout.

The third phase is more than just a numbers game; it’s going a true reflection of the nation’s political pulse. For the Congress, it’s a tightrope walk of political acumen, requiring a delicate balance between national issues and regional sentiments. For the BJP, it’s a test of their stronghold, particularly in Karnataka, where local controversies could sway voter preferences.

In essence, this phase is a litmus test for both alliances. The outcomes will not only determine the immediate electoral fortunes but also set the stage for the political narrative that will unfold in the subsequent phases of the election. The stakes are high, and the parties must tread carefully, as every move could tilt the scales in this intricate dance of democracy.

Gujarat: BJP’s Dominance, Congress’s Challenge, and AAP Alliance Test

As Gujarat braces for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it epitomises the enduring dominance of the BJP. The party’s resounding victory in 2019, securing all 26 seats with an impressive 62.21% vote share, underscores its deep-rooted influence that spans decades. This electoral triumph not only signifies historical precedence but also reflects the intrinsic political fabric of the state, where the BJP has been a formidable force for over twenty years. In contrast, the Congress faces a monumental challenge in reasserting its relevance, given its modest 32.11% vote share in the previous general elections. 

The emergence of the AAP-Congress alliance presents a compelling narrative shift. With AAP’s notable 12.9% vote share in the 2022 assembly polls, this coalition injects a new vigor into the traditional bipolar contest. The strategic alignment aims to consolidate anti-BJP sentiments, historically fragmented, and thereby enhance the opposition’s impact.

However, the BJP remains undeterred, showcasing unwavering confidence through a meticulously crafted strategy aimed at securing each seat with a substantial margin. This proactive approach signifies the party’s commitment to not only sustain but also expand its electoral influence.

The Congress-AAP partnership, while strategically sound, faces multifaceted challenges. Negotiating voter sentiments, regional intricacies, and the overarching developmental narrative championed by the BJP requires adept navigation. The alliance’s ability to translate aspirations into tangible electoral gains remains a subject of keen observation.

In essence, the Gujarat Lok Sabha elections of 2024 encapsulate broader national political dynamics. While the BJP’s supremacy is palpable, the Congress’s quest for resurgence and the AAP-Congress coalition’s litmus test inject intrigue into the electoral milieu. The outcome will not only sculpt Gujarat’s political trajectory but also reverberate across India’s diverse political landscape.

Revanna Ripple Effect On NDA In Karnataka

As Karnataka gears up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the state finds itself amidst a compelling political narrative. The BJP, once a dominant force, now grapples with internal discord and fallout from the Prajwal Revanna scandal. On the other hand, the Congress holds a strategic edge, albeit facing its own internal rifts. The BJP-JD(S) alliance, once touted as a game-changer, now faces scrutiny, casting shadows over the NDA’s electoral prospects.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP’s commanding 51.38% vote share, securing 25 out of 28 seats, showcased its strong regional foothold. However, recent events suggest a potential shift in dynamics. The Revanna controversy has not only marred JD(S)’s reputation but also raised doubts about the BJP’s coalition choices, potentially affecting its voter base.

While the Congress stands poised to capitalise on the BJP’s vulnerabilities, internal factionalism poses challenges. Overcoming these hurdles is crucial to executing a cohesive electoral strategy. Nonetheless, pre-poll surveys indicate the Congress is well-positioned to make significant electoral gains.

The BJP-JD(S) alliance, once strategic, now faces public backlash due to the Revanna scandal. This association’s fallout could sway voter sentiment against the BJP, necessitating a reevaluation of alliance strategies and campaign narratives.

In essence, Karnataka’s 2024 Lok Sabha election promises a nuanced political contest. The BJP’s challenges, the Congress’s strategic advantage, and the ripple effects of the Revanna controversy will shape the electoral landscape. This election’s outcome will not only reflect Karnataka’s political alignment but also reverberate across national political dynamics. The Revanna episode serves as a poignant reminder of the volatile nature of politics, urging parties to tread cautiously in their electoral pursuits.

BJP’s Fortitude and I.N.D.I.A Bloc’s Hurdles in UP and MP

As the third phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections unfolds, all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP), where the political narrative is intricately woven around the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) stronghold and the INDIA bloc’s aspirations.

The BJP, fortified by its robust organisational structure and historical electoral victories, is poised with confidence. The party’s remarkable performance in the 2019 MP elections, clinching 28 out of 29 seats with a commanding 58% vote share, attested to its entrenched position. In UP, strategic campaigning coupled with welfare initiatives has consistently garnered wide support, reinforcing the BJP’s foothold.

Central to the BJP’s prowess is its centralised leadership, spearheaded by the immensely popular Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party’s ideological pursuits, including the abrogation of Article 370 and the Citizenship Amendment Act, have cemented its core voter base. The successful implementation of welfare schemes, creating a ‘Labharthi’ wave, further bolsters the BJP’s appeal.

On the opposing front, the INDIA bloc grapples with daunting challenges. Effective seat-sharing strategies and presenting a united front against the BJP remain pivotal. In MP, leveraging caste equations, anti-incumbency sentiments, and local issues forms the core strategy. Similarly, the Samajwadi Party in UP adopts a pragmatic approach, prioritising winnability in candidate selection over party affiliations.

Nevertheless, the BJP’s hegemony in the Hindi heartland is not unassailable. Its vulnerabilities include southern discomfort and the imperative to innovate campaign tactics continually. The opposition’s emphasis on local issues, coupled with recent BJP controversies, could sway voters seeking change.

In essence, the third phase symbolises a battleground where the BJP’s proven strengths clash with the INDIA bloc’s determination to surmount obstacles. The outcome will not only influence the national political landscape but also delineate India’s governance trajectory. As the electorate’s verdict unfolds, the ramifications will echo far beyond regional boundaries, shaping the contours of Indian politics for years to come.

Mixed Bag In Battles in West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Assam

As the elections now advance into their third phase, the spotlight shifts to West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Assam, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a dynamic mix of challenges and opportunities.

In West Bengal, the BJP’s sturdy organisational structure and charismatic central leadership are its assets. Despite the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) dominance, the BJP’s significant gains in the 2019 elections (18 out of 42 seats, 40.64% vote share) position it as a formidable contender. However, navigating local intricacies and countering the TMC’s narrative remain critical for sustaining momentum.

Maharashtra presents a coalition challenge for the BJP, having secured a substantial victory in 2019 alongside Shiv Sena (41 out of 48 seats, BJP alone with 23 seats). The rift within Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) now tests the BJP’s coalition management skills amidst regional issues.

Assam, where the BJP has a strong foothold (9 out of 14 seats, 36.05% vote share in 2019), confronts shifting political alliances and contentious topics like the Citizenship Amendment Act.

The INDIA bloc, comprising opposition parties, faces the arduous task of unity amidst differing agendas. West Bengal’s internal discord and the TMC’s independent stance could fragment opposition votes. Maharashtra witnesses the Congress struggling to align with allies, while Assam’s regional dynamics add complexity.

In essence, the third phase is a litmus test for the BJP’s strategic agility and the INDIA bloc’s coherence. The outcomes will be pivotal in shaping the electoral narrative, leading up to the ultimate political showdown in India.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow