The Fed brought this fear back to markets this week

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Now that the Fed appears ready to hike rates this summer, markets are watching how the dollar responds.

The greenback, still 3 percent lower on the year, has risen this week against most currencies after Fed officials said in their meeting minutes that they could raise rates as early as June. New York Fed President William Dudley reaffirmed that view Thursday when he said the Fed could hike rates in June or July if economic data improves as expected.

On Friday, existing home sales are expected at 10 a.m. EDT.

“It’s going to be what happens overnight with the currencies…The home sales data is important but I feel like after this week, everyone’s trying to get their head around what’s going on with the Fed,” Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, said.

On Thursday, the fed funds futures market was pricing in about a 30 percent chance of a rate hike in June, compared to just 4 percent last week. Simons said a 100 percent chance was priced in for November, while just a week ago, the first full hike was not priced in until the second half of 2017.

 “I think that people are pretty well comfortable with the domestic data and the Brexit thing is something that’s going to be hard to get any handle on until right when it’s going to the polls,” said Simons.

Brexit, or the British vote on whether to remain in the European Union, is one reason economists think the Fed could put off its rate hike until after June. There was more speculation Thursday that July or September could be the time because of Brexit, which Dudley said complicated the Fed’s decision. The Brexit vote is June 23, about a week after the Fed meets.

Simons said traders would focus on how the markets adjusted to this week’s news flow. Options and futures expiration in equities also come Friday.

“The only near-term monitor we have is volatility caused by currency movements and the volatility of the dollar,” he said.

The dollar’s swift rise in 2014 and into 2015 was a concern, as it drove commodities prices lower and hurt emerging market economies while also raising their debt burden. In the U.S., corporate profits felt the pinch from the higher dollar biting into overseas sales.

“The dollar is looking healthier, basically as you might expect,” said Alan Ruskin, head of G10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank. But Ruskin said he didn’t expect quite as aggressive a move in the dollar as the last time it took off. While emerging markets were definitely hit by the higher dollar, he said he did not expect to see as much damage to risk assets as when the markets were also more worried about instability in China.

 “As long as China is not solidly in the mix, then I think the risky assets won’t have as quite a hard time,” he said.

Ruskin said the euro could reach parity with the dollar but not likely until next year. “It probably takes two rate hikes to take it to 1.05, but it’s going to need cumulative rate hikes beyond that to take us to parity and beyond,” said Ruskin.

Treasury yields this week moved to higher levels, both ahead of the Fed move and after it. Yields rose across the curve this week, though they gave back some ground Thursday, with the 2-year at 0.87 percent and the 10-year at 1.84 percent. The dollar firmed against a group of currencies, including the euro, which dipped under 1.12.

Stocks sold off as the market considered the potential for a rate hike. The S&P 500 slid 7 points to 2,040 and the Dow fell 91 to 17,435. Friday will mark a year exactly since the S&P reached an all-time closing high of 2,130.

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said the anticipated Fed move should give the markets more confidence, especially as global economies appeared to be picking up.

“I think you’ve got to give them a week or so to get okay with it. That might mean the stock market sells off, commodities sell off. People go to the dollar a bit. The undertone of growth is what’s going to rule it, and it looks better and better than other parts of the world,” said Paulsen. “I can see why we get a few day or maybe a few weeks of turbulence on this but I also think that change in momentum might rule the day.”

Besides home sales, Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo speaks Friday at 9 a.m. EDT to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

A few companies, including Campbell Soup, Deere, Foot Locker and The Buckle, will also report earnings.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Asia markets waver on hawkish Fed comments; Nikkei flat

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Asia markets wavered between positive and negative on Friday, in a muted reaction to a fresh stream of hawkish commentary from US Federal Reserve officials.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index edged up 0.14 percent and the yen strengthened a bit against the US dollar, possibly in a risk-off shift toward the safe-haven currency. The dollar-yen pair was at 110.06 at 8:53 a.m. SIN/HK, compared with levels as high as 110.34 Thursday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was up 0.24 percent as the energy sector recovered some recent losses, with the subinex up 2.04 percent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.21 percent.

The muted reaction to the possibility of tighter US monetary policy may be due to markets under-pricing the possibility of further tightening in US monetary policy, with analysts saying market indicators suggested a roughly 30 percent likelihood of a June interest rate hike.

But it’s not clear that a relatively relaxed response would necessarily bite market players, analysts said.

“The markets are complacent about the risks of further tightening over the next couple of years,” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Thursday. “Context, however, is everything: the gradual normalization of U.S. interest rates will remain contingent on favorable economic and financial conditions that should limit the downside for asset prices.”

Fed officials continued to send clear signals to the market on Thursday that a June interest rate hike could be on the cards.

New York Fed President William Dudley said that June was definitely a live meeting and that he was quite pleased market expectations for the probability of a June or July rate hike had moved up.

Those comments raised analysts’ radar over the Fed’s likely steps.

“If one of the most dovish members of the central bank thinks that a rate hike is imminent, then perhaps investors really need to re-think and re-price their expectations for tightening this year,” said Kathy Lien, managing director for foreign-exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, in a note late Thursday.

Additionally, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Bloomberg Radio that he was comfortable with four Fed rate hikes in 2016.

The remarks followed the release of the minutes for the Fed’s April meeting, which sounded remarkably clear hawkish signals to the market.

That sent the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, up to tap highs not seen since late March, before trimming gains on Thursday. The dollar index was at 95.327 at 8:54 a.m., after climbing as high as 95.502 Wednesday.

In Asia trade, U.S. crude oil futures for June delivery rose 0.96 percent to USD 48.62 a barrel by 8:56 a.m. SIN/HK after settling nearly flat. Brent was up 0.82 percent at USD 49.21 a barrel.

Among energy plays, Australia-listed Oil Search tacked on 4.63 percent and Woodside added 1.81 percent, retracing recent losses.

Gold shares may be in focus after the price of gold fell as low as USD 1,244.60 an ounce in the U.S. session Thursday. A stronger dollar weighs on the price of gold, in part because it lessens the yellow metal’s attractiveness as a potential hedge against inflation.

Australia-listed Alacer Gold tacked on 4.59 percent, but Newcrest fell 1.06 percent.

In Japan, heavily weighted Fast Retailing shed 0.16 percent, dampening the index. Other plays on the domestic consumer were also lower, with Kirin off 0.41 percent and Japan Tobacco off 2.52 percent.

Shares of Hong Kong’s Li & Fung may be in focus after shares of its major customer, Wal-Mart, surged more than 9 percent after better-than-expected quarterly results.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 91.22 points, or 0.52 percent, at 17,435.40, the S&P 500 closed down 7.59 points, or 0.37 percent, at 2,040.04 and the Nasdaq composite closed down 26.59 points, or 0.56 percent, at 4,712.53.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo disappears from radar

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Egyptian airline EgyptAir has said its Flight MS804, en route from Paris to Cairo, has “disappeared from radar.”

In an Arabic-language Facebook post, EgyptAir cited an “official source” as saying the flight, which took off from Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport at 11.09 p.m. Paris time had “disappeared from radar in the early hours of day today.”

The post said that the flight was carrying 59 passengers and 10 crew members.

The airline also tweeted from its verified Twitter account that an “informed source” had confirmed the disappearance.

NBC News reported that the airline said plane was flying at nearly 37,000 feet and was about 80 miles from Egyptian airspace when it disappeared. NBC reported that it had been told by Egyptian authorities that a search operation was underway over the Mediterranean Sea.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Asia markets start pricing in possibility of imminent Fed hike

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

The Federal Reserve’s April minutes upped the prospect of an interest rate hike, sending the dollar higher, spurring divergent performance in Asia markets on Thursday.

“Markets are playing catch up to communications from the US Federal Reserve as they appear to have dramatically under-priced the likelihood of a rate rise over the coming months,” noted Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at IG, in a note Thursday.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index tacked on 0.68 percent, likely driven by the stronger dollar helping to push down the persistently stronger yen, which has been dampening earnings for the country’s exporters.

The dollar was fetching 110.11 yen at 8:38 a.m. SIN/HK, the highest levels for the pair since late April, compared with levels around 109 yen on Wednesday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.27 percent, as a 0.39 percent gain in the heavily weighted financials subindex was offset was sharp drops in the energy and materials subindexes. Commodity prices, which are denominated in dollars, may take a hit from a stronger greenback.

South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.38 percent; higher interest rates in the US may spur fund outflows from the country.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index tacked on 0.68 percent, likely driven by the stronger dollar helping to push down the persistently stronger yen, which has been dampening earnings for the country’s exporters.

The dollar was fetching 110.11 yen at 8:38 a.m. SIN/HK, the highest levels for the pair since late April, compared with levels around 109 yen on Wednesday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.27 percent, as a 0.39 percent gain in the heavily weighted financials subindex was offset was sharp drops in the energy and materials subindexes. Commodity prices, which are denominated in dollars, may take a hit from a stronger greenback.

South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.38 percent; higher interest rates in the US may spur fund outflows from the country.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s April meeting, released Wednesday in the U.S., were remarkably direct about the central bank’s intentions on interest rates.

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June,” the minutes said.

The market didn’t need to resort to tea leaves to divine the meaning.

“Despite all the caveats, the message they intended to send was that June was seriously live,” Steven Englander, global head of G10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citi, said in a note late Wednesday.

That pushed up the greenback, with the dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, trading at 95.173 at 8:40 a.m. SIN/HK time, touching levels above 95 in the U.S. session for the first time in about a month.

Financial shares were higher as higher interest rates may spur better earnings in the sector. In Australia, ANZ was up 1.21 percent and in Japan, Mizuho Financial gained 1.90 percent.

Commodity stocks around the region lost ground.

Oil prices fell early Thursday, after recently climbing to the highest levels so far this year amid supply concerns after disruptions in Nigeria, Canada, Libya and Venezuela. US crude oil futures fell 0.93 percent to 47.74 a barrel by 8:46 a.m. SIN/HK in Asia trade after settling the US session down 12 cents or 0.25 percent. Brent was down 1.08 percent at USD48.40 a barrel.

Among energy plays, Australia’s Woodside lost 1.21 percent and South Korea’s S-Oil shed 2.21 percent. In Japan, Inpex dropped 2.88 percent after gaining more than 8 percent in the previous session.

Other resources stocks also fell. Heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were down more than 3 percent each.

Suzuki gained 5.93 percent after dropping 9.37 percent on Wednesday. The company on Wednesday confirmed media reports that it had used the wrong method to test the fuel economy of its cars in Japan.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 3.36 points, or 0.02 percent, at 17,526.62, the S&P 500 closed up 0.42 points, or 0.02 percent, at 2,047.63 and the Nasdaq composite closed up 23.39 points, or 0.50 percent, at 4,739.12.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

I got 2 out of 4 countries right, ‘Mr BRIC’: Jim O’Neill

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

The BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China have suffered a rocky ride since renowned economist Jim O’Neill coined the acronym in 2001.

O’Neill, who invented the term as Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, told CNBC on Wednesday that China and India were performing as well — or even better — than he forecast in his now-famous report, “Building better global economic BRICs.” In this, he predicted the BRICs’ importance to the global economy would rapidly increase over the coming decade.

“The most important BRIC, China, despite all its problems and its slowdown, is still, since the decade started, growing by more than I had assumed it would,” O’Neill told CNBC.

“So it was pretty obvious China would slow down at some stage significantly. There are lots of challenges, but so far, China is the only of the four (BRICs) that has grown by more than I had assumed.”

In his 2001 report, he forecast China’s economy would grow by 7 percent on average per year until 2011. Despite the slowdown and more recent stock market rout, China’s growth trumped this every year until 2015.

Last year, China’s economy grew by 6.9 percent, according to the country’s official data. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures are viewed by many as inflated, but still indicative of very strong growth compared to developed world peers.

India’s GDP growth has since overtaken that of China, with its economy expanding by 7.3 percent in both 2014 and 2015.

“India, the other country of more than a billion people, is seemingly growing by more than China — so some of the BRICs are kind of doing basically what I thought they would do,” O’Neill said.

Russia and Brazil, however, are mired in recession with both economies contracting by more than 3 percent last year and forecast to shrink again in 2016 by the International Monetary Fund.

Brazil’s economic plight is viewed as particularly challenging, as the country is grappling simultaneously with severe political unrest.

“Brazil and Russia are showing classic signs of the so-called commodities curse and they have got to get through it,” O’Neill said.

“What it has demonstrated is that they have been too dependent on commodities and they have got to undertake reforms in order to stop that being the case, or otherwise they won’t get to where I and some others once said they could.”

O’Neill quit Goldman Sachs in 2013 and is now commercial secretary to the U.K. Treasury. He is also on the economic advisory board of the World Bank’s investment wing and a visiting research fellow at the Bruegel think tank.

On Wednesday, the English economist said it would be better for the UK to remain in the European Union (EU) than vote to quit in its referendum next month.

“I don’t think the risk-reward is in our interest to consider leaving the EU. It doesn’t make a lot of sense,” O’Neill told CNBC .

He hinted at disagreement with some analysts’ view that a so-called “Brexit” might herald the end of the 28-country union.

“The EU, I would guess, is probably going to exist, whatever the UK votes on June 23 and we (the UK) will still be an important country in the world,” he told CNBC.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Why London could decide the next US rate hike

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

NYSE suspends trading in 200 stocks over technical issue

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

The New York Stock Exchange experienced a “critical” technical issue Wednesday and suspended trading on 199 ticker symbols.

It was the latest in a series of issues affecting one trading unit with the same symbols. Trades in the affected symbols continued to come through other market centers.

Both the Nasdaq and BATS stock exchanges had declared self-help against the NYSE amid the multiple technical issues that closed all open orders on the symbols. A self-help exception allows trading centers to bypass an automated trading center that is experiencing system problems, according to the SEC.

NYSE believes the stocks affected are traded by Citadel KCG at Post 5, said NYSE spokesperson Kristen Cause. The area of the trading floor was roped off as the issue was addressed.

Cause told CNBC that she believes the issue is linked to the NYSE’s own system but it will continue to look for the root cause.

Tickers like the Bank of Montreal and Agilent Technologies were affected.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Asia markets slip; Nikkei wavers after above-view GDP

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Asia markets opened lower Wednesday, with Japan’s shares wavering as traders struggled to interpret data showing the country’s economic growth beat expectations.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 0.62 percent, continuing to weave between positive and negative territories as traders were likely weighing whether the good news from the data was good or bad news for markets.

Asia markets opened lower Wednesday, with Japan’s shares wavering as traders struggled to interpret data showing the country’s economic growth beat expectations.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 0.62 percent, continuing to weave between positive and negative territories as traders were likely weighing whether the good news from the data was good or bad news for markets.

The yen, which initially also wavered in reaction to the data, signaled market displeasure, with the Japanese currency strengthening to as low as 108.70 against the US dollar, compared with around 109.09 prior, before the pair rose again to 109.04 at 9:38 a.m. SIN/HK time.

Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-to-March period grew faster than expected, with real GDP rising 0.4 percent on quarter compared with a Reuters poll forecast for 0.1 percent growth. Annualized GDP for the period grew 1.7 percent, compared with expectations from a Reuters poll for 0.2 percent growth.

The market had expected that a poor reading would spur additional easing measures from the Bank of Japan – in other words, that bad news would have been good news for traders.

DBS noted that the rise in GDP growth came as growth for October-December was revised lower, keeping aggregate output flat.

“The GDP data results are not bad enough to justify a postponement of the 2017 sales tax hike,” DBS said in a note Wednesday. “The BOJ is likely to wait for a while to see the fiscal policy details, before taking actions on monetary policy.”

Down under, the S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.44 percent, retracing Tuesday’s 0.69 percent rise, dragged by a 0.49 percent decline in the heavily weighted financials subindex. That was offset by continued gains in the energy sector, which added 1.09 percent.

South Korea’s Kospi index also fell, shedding 1.07 percent.

Some energy shares extended Tuesday’s gains as continued concerns over supply outages in Venezuela, Nigeria and Canada boosted oil prices. In Australia, Santos added 0.23 percent after rising 6.3 percent Tuesday and Woodside rose 0.29 percent after tacking on 2.88 percent Tuesday. In Japan, Inpex jumped 6.81 percent after rising 3.16 percent Tuesday.

US crude oil futures settled up 59 cents, or 1.2 percent, at USD 48.31 a barrel, its highest since October. Brent settled above USD 49 a barrel.

Markets remained wary over potential interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve, which dented US market performance overnight.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its April meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday and many analysts are concerned the minutes could be more hawkish than the statement that followed April’s meeting.

That concern got some juice from comments by San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who said the Fed could still raise rates two or three times this year, according to a Reuters report.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 180.73 points, or 1.02 percent, at 17,529.98, the S&P 500 closed down 19.45 points, or 0.94 percent, at 2,047.21, and the Nasdaq composite closed down 59.73 points, or 1.25 percent, at 4,715.73.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

This is what’s worrying markets right now

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Fed phobia is running high ahead of Wednesday’s release of Fed minutes.

The minutes, which will be released at 2 pm EDT, were already stirring up the bond market Tuesday morning, and that spilled into the stock market during the trading day.

“They are terrified of [the minutes], because there’s a chance you’ll get a sense of the bulk of the committee’s views,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. “Either way, it will have far more power than any number of individual speakers.”

Read More: The market got too complacent on rate hikes: BlackRock

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Why Iran can’t rely on oil to rescue economy: IMF

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Following the lifting of international sanctions, Iran has high hopes that its oil industry can be a key pillar in its plan to return to economic prosperity, but a senior official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to warn the country that it has greater challenges ahead.

In a preview of a speech due to be given on Tuesday by David Lipton, the first deputy managing director of the IMF will warn that Iran can no longer rely on its main export commodity – oil – to be the source of its growth in future.

“I speak here today at a pivotal moment for Iran’s economy,” Lipton is expected to say during the speech at the Central Bank of Iran on Tuesday.

“With important sanctions lifted, your country has a new opportunity to deepen its integration into the global economy. That process has the potential over time to support faster growth and rising living standards for Iranians.”

“But positive results depend on overcoming two major obstacles as well. The first is navigating a difficult global economic situation. And the second is building a competitive and flexible domestic economy that will serve as a suitably strong platform for growth,” he will say, adding that only a non-oil based economy will bring Iran “sustainable growth.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow