Tag: UAE

Gulf Arab allies hail Trump after US quits Iran deal

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies basked on Wednesday in what they saw as a political victory over Iran, their rival for regional influence, after Washington withdrew from the international nuclear accord with Tehran.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain swiftly backed US President Donald Trump’s decision to reimpose sanctions on Tehran, reflecting their concern about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and support for militant groups.

“Paris and London may not like Trump’s decision, but how would the French or British feel if their capital cities came under direct threat by the Iranians?” editor-in-chief Faisal Abbas wrote in Saudi Arabia’s English-language Arab News daily next to a headline that read: “The deal is dead.”

In a coffee shop, Saudi businessman Ziad said the kingdom’s leadership was correct to challenge a deal that had eased sanctions in exchange for Tehran taking measures that would prevent it being able to make a nuclear weapon.

“Every couple of days, we have missiles coming from Yemen and we see evidence that they are made by Iran … It is interfering in Syria, Yemen, Morocco. Other countries may accept that, but here in Saudi Arabia we don’t,” he said.

An hour later, at least four loud blasts rocked Riyadh. Authorities said they had intercepted two ballistic missiles fired from Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is fighting to oust the Iran-aligned Houthi movement from the capital and large parts of the country.

Proxy Wars

The Sunni Muslim kingdom has been at loggerheads with Shi’ite Iran for decades, fighting a long-running proxy war in the Middle East and beyond that has influenced conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry accused Iran of using economic gains from the lifting of sanctions to develop ballistic missiles and support militants. It called for a “comprehensive view that is not limited to its nuclear programme but also includes all hostile activities”.

Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, tweeted that Iran had been emboldened by the nuclear deal, and “its ballistic missile program became both offensive & exportable”.

Trump has employed similar arguments, criticising the accord for failing to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, its nuclear activities beyond 2025, or its role in regional wars.

“He is supporting us not because we are Saudi Arabia or because we have oil, but because he thinks we are right,” said Mohammed, another Saudi businessman.

Oman, which orchestrated secret US-Iran contacts that helped pave the way for the deal in 2015, was more measured.

“We believe the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are interested in realising peace and stability in the region, and the choice of confrontation is not in the interest of either side,” its foreign ministry said.

Kuwait said in a statement that it “understands and respects” Trump’s decision.

Qatar, locked in a dispute with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, meanwhile cautioned against a potential nuclear arms race in the region.

“It is in the interest of all parties to exercise restraint, wisdom and patience and to try to resolve differences through dialogue,” its foreign ministry said.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a trade and transport boycott on Qatar in June, accusing it of financing militant groups and cosying up to Iran — charges it denies.

“Sinister Activities”

“The Omani, Qatari, and Kuwaiti governments have all sought to maintain pragmatic relations — economic more than political — with Iran,” said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen from the Texas-based Rice University’s Baker Institute.

“There is likely to be a feeling of jubilation in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that the Trump administration — or at least the White House — has now come round to their thinking on Iran’s threat to regional security.”

In his speech on Tuesday, Trump condemned Iran’s “sinister activities” including backing armed Islamist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

Abdulaziz al-Sager, head of the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Centre, said the message was significant in that it reflected Gulf concerns. “We’ve always said our concern about this agreement in 2015 was that Iran should not take it as ‘carte blanche’ to go and expand its territorial influence.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who serves as Saudi defence minister, told CBS News in March that his country would “without a doubt” develop nuclear weapons if Iran did so.

Iran had ruled out renegotiating the accord and threatened to retaliate if Washington withdrew.

It could do so by undermining the interests of Washington and its allies in the Middle East, perhaps by increasing support for Yemen’s Houthis. The Saudi Arabia and Emirati forces fighting the Houthis both receive military backing from the United States and other Western allies.

“There is a real risk of escalation, especially between Iran and Israel. While the Gulf states may want to see the US and Israel try to cut Iran to size, I don’t think they want to get dragged into a direct confrontation themselves. The consequences could be severe,” said Joost Hiltermann, Program Director, Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group.

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OPEC sees higher 2018 oil supply from rivals, stronger oil demand

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday revised its forecast for supply growth from its rivals for 2018 by nearly three times more than its revised projection of growth in global oil demand.

It said growth in non-OPEC oil supply was forecast to rise by a further 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to 1.71 million bpd, driven largely by higher-than-anticipated growth in the first quarter in the United States and the former Soviet Union.

At the same time, the OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year by 30,000 bpd to 1.63 million bpd.

“This mainly reflects the positive momentum in the OECD in the 1Q18 on the back of better-than-expected data, and supported by development in industrial activities, colder-than-anticipated weather and strong mining activities in the OECD Americas and the OECD Asia Pacific,” it said in its monthly market report.

The 14-member, Vienna-based producer group said its collective output according to secondary sources fell by 201,000 bpd to 31.96 million bpd in March from February, driven by declines in Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Libya.

Production in the United Arab Emirates posted the largest month-on-month increase, according to the secondary sources, rising by around 45,000 bpd in March to 2.86 million bpd.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia told the group it pumped 9.907 million bpd in March, 28,000 bpd below its February level.

Venezuela reported production of 1.509 million bpd in March, 77,000 bpd below the level it reported in February.

OPEC, Russia and several other non-OPEC producers began to cut supply in January 2017 in an effort to erase a global glut of crude that had built up since 2014.

The pact runs until the end of the year and OPEC meets in Vienna in June to decide on its next course of action.

Oil stocks in the developed world reversed a rise in January to fall by 17.4 million barrels in February to 2.854 billion barrels, around 43 million barrels above the latest five-year average, OPEC said.

Stock levels are 207 million barrels below their level in February 2017.

“Crude stocks indicated a surplus of 55 million barrels, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 12 million barrels less than the seasonal norm,” the report said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

UAE says most countries in oil cut deal like idea of long-term alliance

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A majority of the OPEC and independent oil producers participating in a current deal to cut supply like the idea of a long-term producers’ alliance, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates said on Thursday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and several other non-OPEC producers began to cut supply in January 2017 in an effort to erase a global glut of crude that had built up since 2014.

OPEC and its partners, 24 countries in all, have extended the pact until the end of 2018 and are considering a deal to prolong their alliance for years or even decades.

“I think the idea itself is liked by, if not all, the majority of the countries,” said Suhail al-Mazroui on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum. The UAE holds the OPEC presidency in 2018.

“The ultimate target is to have this group working together for way longer than those two years than we’ve been working together.”

The talks have raised the prospect that producers could extend tangible actions to prop up oil prices through supply cuts – or moderate them by pumping more – beyond this year’s expiry of the supply cut agreement.

Mazroui told Reuters on Wednesday producers were trying to work out details of the agreement and indicated that it may not include a provision on cutting or increasing oil output.

Asked on Thursday about the objective of the alliance, the minister said the aim was to build on progress made since the deal began on sharing information and building trust.

“The objective is to have this group of responsible producers communicating, looking at the market together,” he said, adding that over the past two years that stronger communication has helped to bridge misunderstandings among the various producing countries.

“I think the level of trust has increased significantly among us. We call each other, the ministers, and the technical people and commercial people in those countries, they are in direct communication.”

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow