RBI Monetary Policy: OMO sales announcement a surprise, say experts
Summary
The RBI’s projections for consumer price index (CPI) inflation have been adjusted as follows: for the second quarter of this fiscal year, it is now expected to be 6.4%, up from the previous estimate of 6.2%. In the third quarter, the projection stands at 5.6%, down from the previous estimate of 5.7%. Finally, for both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of FY25, CPI inflation is anticipated to be 5.2%.
The market had not fully considered the impact of the open market operations (OMO) announcement or the potential for such action, said Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CIO-Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund reacting to the monetary policy announcements on October 6.
While announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said they may consider OMO sales to manage liquidity.
OMO refers to the sale or purchase of government securities in the open market by the central bank and therefore, has an impact on yields.
As a result, there was an immediate reaction with yields rising by approximately 7-8 basis points, including swaps. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The yield on the 10-year benchmark 7.18% 2033 bond was at 7.2890% at 10:50 a.m., as against the previous day’s closing of 7.2140%.
Radhakrishnan said the data available until the previous week indicated net sales of around Rs 5,000 crore. Nevertheless, the unexpected threat of an OMO sale contributed to the market’s negative response.
Kaushik Das, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, had anticipated some surprises in each policy announcement, and the introduction of OMO sales came as one to the market’s surprise, as it was not widely expected.
Kaushik Das raised the question of whether liquidity absorption could have been achieved through a cash reserve ratio (CRR) hike instead. He noted that the RBI had been reversing the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR), making a CRR hike seem unusual. Therefore, the decision to proceed with OMO sales may have been influenced by these considerations.
The RBI Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave the repo rate unchanged and projected India’s GDP at 6.5% for the fiscal year 2023-24.
Despite the possibility of prolonged high global inflation, Das highlighted the resilience of domestic economic activity driven by robust domestic demand.
The RBI’s projections for consumer price index (CPI) inflation have been adjusted as follows: for the second quarter of this fiscal year, it is now expected to be 6.4%, up from the previous estimate of 6.2%. In the third quarter, the projection stands at 5.6%, down from the previous estimate of 5.7%. Finally, for both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of FY25, CPI inflation is anticipated to be 5.2%.
Upasna Bhardwaj, Senior Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, stated that it largely aligns with expectations since August.
“Broadly, it is a very-much-in-line-with-expectations policy since August,” she said.
Bhardwaj emphasised that the battle against inflation is ongoing and cautioned against finding comfort in a 5-5.5% inflation rate. She stressed that the target remains at 4%, and until this level is consistently reached, the RBI will remain cautious.
“The fight against inflation is not done with and we are not getting away with just a 5-5.5% inflation reading and draw comfort from that. Clearly, 4% is the target and until that is not achieved on a consistent basis, RBI is not going to lower their guards,” she stated.
While Kotak Mahindra Bank’s inflation forecasts are generally in sync with the RBI’s, Bhardwaj noted a slightly higher estimate of 6.5% for the second quarter, compared to the RBI’s 6.4%, but still believes that achieving 5.4% inflation is feasible overall.
“On inflation forecast, we are broadly in sync but for the second quarter, we are at 6.5% as against RBI’s 6.4% and overall we still see that 5.4% is achievable,” she added.
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MD of SBI, CS Setty, said that the policy announcements are in line with expectations. The primary emphasis remains on inflation, with a clear message that the target is 4%, necessitating stricter liquidity management. Banks and financial institutions must prepare for sustained tighter liquidity conditions.
While discussing yield and bond market trends, While discussing personal loans, Ashutosh Khajuria, Chief Mentor at Federal Bank, noted that the governor’s concern primarily revolved around unsecured forms of lending, such as credit cards and consumption loans. Regulatory alerts indicate that the growth in this segment has been substantial.
However, Khajuria pointed out that for Federal Bank, the exposure in this area is relatively modest, accounting for only about 2.5-3% of their total loan portfolio. Therefore, this may not have a significant impact on their operations.
Shanti Ekambaram, a Whole-time Director at Kotak Mahindra Bank, expressed that India has the potential to become the new driving force for economic growth on the domestic front. She emphasized that her concerns primarily revolve around a few key factors, including global instability, the direct impact of oil price increases on inflation in India, the possibility of a worldwide food crisis or scarcity, and any geopolitical tensions that may manifest, possibly affecting currency flows. Ekambaram noted that the current risks primarily originate from the global arena.
According to Pranjul Bhandari, the Chief India Economist at HSBC, it would be unwise to speculate that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will start reducing interest rates by mid-2024. Such a prediction would be hasty and unwarranted. Bhandari explains that if India is to achieve the expected rapid economic growth in the short term, it is likely to lead to inflation, especially considering that core inflation tends to increase swiftly when economic growth is robust in India.
Anubhuti Sahay, Head of South Asia Economic Research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that keeping the current numbers unchanged for December and March 2024 is justified for the short term. However, for FY25, Sahay suggests that these are model-based projections, and as we approach monetary policy decisions around June or September 2024, these numbers can change significantly.
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