India’s FY23 growth forecast cut to 7%: FICCI survey

The latest economic outlook survey conducted by the industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) has downgraded India’s GDP growth forecast to 7 percent for the current fiscal.

FICCI, in its previous survey held in April, had estimated a 7.4 percent growth. The survey, based on responses from economists, representing industry, banks and the financial services sector also highlights that geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, increasing uncertainties and the global financial markets will prolong the India’s economy’s recovery post the COVID pandemic.

The survey also highlights that inflation in India will moderate in the medium term.

To discuss this, CNBC-TV18 spoke to Subhrakant Panda, Senior VP, FICCI, and MD, Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys; and Sachchidanand Shukla, FICCI Economists Forum and Chief Economist, Mahindra Group.

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US Fed on path for more and bigger rate hikes due to hotter-than-expected inflation: Experts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The US inflation data showed it hit a fresh 40-year high in May, raising expectations that the Fed would stay on the path of hiking interest rates aggressively for long.

Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist and Global Head of Economics, Morgan Stanley, on Monday said that the US Federal Reserve is expected to take two rate hikes of more than 50 basis points (bps) in the next two consecutive meetings even as inflation remains hotter than expected. He said the Fed could, in fact, increase rate by 75 bps in one of the meetings in the summer.

“We are expecting, now that this inflation number has been a surprise, that the Fed will probably have to take more than two 50 basis point rate hikes in the two consecutive meetings… So it could be another third 50 basis point rate hike in September. And the additional risks that we are also highlighting is that in one of the meetings in the summer, they could take up 75 bps run-rate instead of 50,” Ahya said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision is scheduled on June 15.

Ahya’s comments came after the US inflation data showed it hit a fresh 40-year high in May, raising expectations that the Fed would stay on the path of hiking interest rates aggressively for long. The US consumer prices rose 8.6 percent, surpassing the estimates of economists who had projected the peak in March.

The worse than expected inflation rate can be attributed to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that have led to a rise in global fuel and food prices and supply-related concerns due to COVID-induced lockdowns in Asia.

Ahya said it is the interest rate which will be used as a more active tool than balance sheet by the Fed in its policy framework.

Steven Englander, Global Head-G10 Fx Research and North America Macro Strategy, Standard Chartered, agreed with Ahya saying that he doesn’t think the Fed is going to deviate from the 50 basis points hike and in fact, go beyond if required.

“I doubt that they’re going to change their schedule on the tapering. I think they want to make that as invisible as possible. I also suspect that they’re not going to deviate from the 50 basis point (bps) hike… I think the Fed will stick to 50. But I think they will also signal that they could do 75 if circumstances get worse,” he told CNBC-TV18.

“Most of the FOMC participants have indicated that they want to get to neutral as fast as possible. So that suggests that they see themselves going up close to 3 percent (rate). I think that they’re eager to regain credibility with respect to inflation fighting,” he added.

According to Englander, the US economy could slow down much more dramatically going forward.

While global macros look worrisome with the US May Consumer Price Index coming in much higher than expected, market is expecting India’s last month’s CPI, due today, to also be higher than estimates. The CPI inflation for May is expected to stay above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper tolerance limit of 6 percent for a fifth consecutive month.

Given higher inflation, Ahya expects RBI also to hike rates by 50 bps twice consecutively.

“We have been a bit more hawkish than consensus and then we have been building in RBI’s terminal policy rate to be at 6.5 percent. And we do think that they will take up two consecutive 50 basis point rate hikes in the next meeting and then in the August meeting,” he said, adding, “I would still say that there are upside risks to our forecasts on inflation and policy rates.”

According to Ahya, the risk to India’s growth remain in the form of factors such as weakening external demand and elevated commodity prices. He added that Asia’s and India’s trade numbers are impacted as the exports are weakening due to the US shifting spending to services from goods.

“Both the consumer spending shift from goods to services and global capex slowdown are weighing on Asia’s exports and also India’s exports. So, that lever is definitely becoming a headwind as a challenge for growth outlook for Asia and India,” said Ahya.

However, since India is a domestic demand oriented market, it will benefit from reopening of economy, investment cycle, government’s  structural reforms and diversification of supply chain out from China, he added.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI needs to hike key rate by at least 100 basis points to control inflation: CLSA

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

India’s retail inflation last month hit an eight-year high of 7.79 percent owing to high food prices. Food inflation jumped to 8.38 percent in April against 7.68 percent in March and 1.96 percent in the same month last year.

CLSA on Friday said that it expects India’s inflation to average at 6.3 percent for the financial year 2023 and insisted on the need for the Reserve Bank of India to hike the key rate by at least 100 basis points. 100 basis points equal 1 percentage point.

“We are looking at an average inflation of 6.3 percent for the whole year, but the point is that it’s not so much the risk of inflation… The problem is that the interest rates are so low that you are running negative real rate. So I would imagine that you need to hike at least 100 basis points more from an RBI perspective to go to somewhere around 5.4-5.5 percent,” Indranil Sengupta, Economist and Head of Research, CLSA India, told CNBC-TV18.

CLSA’s estimated inflation number for FY23 in lower than the projection made by India Ratings and Research on Thursday. Ind-Ra said the average headline inflation is set to accelerate to a nine-year high at 6.9 percent in FY23 and added the RBI may go for more rate hikes during the fiscal.

RBI in April revised the inflation projection to 5.7 percent for 2022-23. It sees Q1 inflation at 6.3 percent, Q2 at 5.8 percent, Q3 at 5.4 percent and Q4 at 5.1 percent.

India’s retail inflation last month hit an eight-year high of 7.79 percent owing to high food prices. Food inflation jumped to 8.38 percent in April against 7.68 percent in March and 1.96 percent in the same month last year.

This was the fourth straight month when the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation stayed above the central bank’s comfort zone of 2-6 percent.

As the inflation remains high, experts and economists are expecting the RBI to tighten monetary policy aggressively.

Sengupta said this could impact GDP growth estimates. “I would say that there could be a bit of a downside bias (in GDP estimates) because history tells you that when the Fed starts to suck out liquidity, it becomes very difficult for commodity prices to sustain at high levels. And I think barring oil, most of the other commodity prices have certainly begun to come down,” he said.

At this point, however, Sengupta is “not calling for a long recession”.

“We are not calling for a long recession or anything. We are looking at a slowdown,” he said, adding that India’s 10-year yields are unlikely to sustain above 7.5 percent.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI Policy Highlights: Status quo on key rates, higher inflation projection, cut in growth estimates and more

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Stating RBI’s agenda for this year, Das said that the central bank, after three years, has prioritised inflation control over growth taking note of inflation risks amid current international instability due to Ukraine-Russia war.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged in its first bi-monthly policy meeting of FY23, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. This is the 11th time in a row that the central bank has maintained a status quo on the key policy rate.

With no change this time as well, the repo rate currently stands at 4 percent. The reverse repo rate has been maintained at 3.35 percent.

Stating RBI’s agenda for this year, Das said that the central bank, after three years, has prioritised inflation control over growth taking note of inflation risks amid current international instability due to Ukraine-Russia war.

Also Read: 10-year bond yield hits 7% as RBI announces monetary policy

Key Highlights:

  • The MPC, unanimously, voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4 percent and keep the stance accommodative. “MPC decided to remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth”
  • Growth seen lower whereas inflation higher than projected.

Growth Outlook

  • The real GDP growth forecast for FY 2023 lowered to 7.2 percent from the earlier 7.8 percent.

GDP Forecast  

  • Q1 seen at 16.2 percent vs the earlier 17.2 percent
  • Q2 seen at 6.2 percent vs the earlier 7 percent
  • Q3 seen at 4.1 percent vs the earlier 4.3 percent
  • Q4 seen at 4.0 percent vs the earlier 4.5 percent

Inflation Outlook 

  • Assumptions: Normal monsoon in 2022 and average price of crude oil USD 100 per barrel.
  • CPI projected at 5.7 percent for FY23 vs the earlier 4.5 percent
  • Q1 CPI seen at 6.3 percent vs the earlier 4.9 percent
  • Q2 CPI seen at 5.8 percent vs the earlier 5 percent
  • Q3 CPI seen at 5.4 percent vs the earlier 4 percent
  • Q4 CPI seen at 5.1 percent vs the earlier 4.2 percent

Liquidity  

  • Width of the LAF corridor to be restored to the pre-pandemic configuration of 50 bps.
  • There will be standing facilities at both ends of the LAF corridor.
  • Access to SDF and MSF will be at the discretion of banks, unlike repo/reverse repo, OMO and CRR.
  • SDF rate will be 25 bps below the policy rate, at 3.75 percent.
  • MSF rate will continue to be 25 bps above the policy repo rate.
  • Opening time for financial markets to be restored to the pre-pandemic timing of 9:00 am w.e.f April 18, 2022.

Additional Measures 

  • Rationalisation of risk weights for individual housing loans to be extended till March 31, 2023.
  • Present limit under HTM category to be enhanced to 23 percent from 22 percent of NDTL till March 31, 2023.
  • HTM limits to be restored from 23 percent to 19.5 percent in a phased manner starting from quarter ending June 30, 2023.
  • Discussion paper on Climate Risk and Sustainable Finance to be published shortly for feedback.
  • Setting up of a committee to examine & review current state of customer service in RBI Regulated Entities proposed.
  • Card-less cash withdrawal facility proposed to be made available across all banks and ATM networks using UPI.

Also Read: RBI Monetary Policy: Here’s the full text of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ speech

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI April Monetary Policy: Central bank leaves repo rate unchanged; continues with ‘accommodative’ stance

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

RBI April Monetary Policy: With no change this time as well, the repo rate currently stands at 4 percent. The reverse repo rate has been maintained at 3.35 percent.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged in its first bi-monthly policy meeting of FY23, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. This is the 11th time in a row that the central bank has maintained a status quo on the key policy rate.

With no change this time as well, the repo rate currently stands at 4 percent. The reverse repo rate has been maintained at 3.35 percent.

The central bank has decided to continue with “accommodative” stance though with a focus on withdrawal “to ensure inflation remains within target while supporting growth”. The RBI in previous policies had said that the “accommodative” stance could continue for as long as necessary to revive growth.

In the last 10 meetings as well, the MPC had maintained an ‘accommodative’ monetary policy stance.

The repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of the country lends funds to the commercial banks. The commercial banks borrow funds only if they witness a shortfall in their funds. The monetary policy committee of a country uses the reverse repo rate as a tool to control the money supply in the country.

The April policy is one of the most crucial policies of recent times amid uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, surge in oil prices that hit a 14-year high in early March, and sharply surging inflation which has emerged as a bigger concern than growth.

The announcement is in line with the Street’s expectations as largely it was expecting a status quo by the central bank.

A CNBC-TV18 poll of economists and market watchers had predicted a status quo on policy rate with most respondents expecting the central bank to leave it unchanged.

The governor said the central bank began the journey of fighting COVID impact on economy two years ago and has “successfully navigated course through turbulent waters”.

Das said that consumer confidence was increasing with railway freight, GST collections, toll collections, electricity demand and import of goods reporting  robust growth in February and March.

Business confidence is also in optimistic territory and investment activity may gain traction going ahead, he added.

The RBI said the liquidity adjustment facility would be brought back to the pre-pandemic levels. “As situation normalised, we have taken steps to re-balance liquidity conditions,” said the governor.

However, the commencement of geopolitical tensions has led to tectonic shifts in global economy, said Das, adding that there are fears of deglobalisation.

“Conflict in Europe has potential to derail the global economy,” he said.

The governor said that the approach needs to be cautious but proactive in mitigating impact on growth inflation and financial conditions.

There is materialised risk to downside of GDP growth while inflation is now projected to be higher than the February expectations due to escalating geopolitical tensions.

The GDP growth for FY23 is now seen at 7.2 percent while for Q1, it is seen at 16.2 percent and for Q2, Q3 and Q4, it is seen at 6.2 percent, 4.1 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

On inflation, Das said the spike in international crude oil prices was a substantial risk. A sharp rise in domestic pump prices could result in broad based second round price pressures, he added.

Feedstock pressures could continue and may have a spillover impact on poultry, dairy prices, said Das, who added that the financial market is likely to remain volatile.

The retail inflation is estimated at 5.7 percent for FY23 and at 6.3 percent for Q1, 5.8 percent for Q2, 5.4 percent for Q3 and 5.1 percent for Q4.

Among the non-policy announcements, the RBI proposed to make cardless cash withdrawals across banks and ATMs using UPI. “Will set up a committee for customer service to suggests measures to improve customer service,” said Das.

The central bank extended rationalised risk weights for housing loans ​until March 2023. Also, starting June 30, 2023, HTM will be restored to 19.5 percent in a phased manner, said Das.

Follow our live blog on the RBI monetary policy here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Nomura revises India GDP, inflation forecasts, sees oil at $125/barrel in worst case

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Nomura has revised its GDP as well as consumer inflation projections for India.

Nomura on Monday lowered its forecast for GDP growth in India in FY23 to 6.5 percent in the worst case scenario. It also made adjustments in its inflation forecasts for the economy.

The move comes as economists await monthly wholesale as well as consumer inflation numbers due later in the day.

The brokerage raised its consumer inflation forecast for FY23 to 6.3 percent in the base case scenario and 7 percent in the worst case scenario, as against 5.9 percent earlier.

Its revised its base case assumption for crude oil to $108 a barrel for 2022 from $88 a barrel earlier. Its worst case crude assumption now stands at $125 per barrel for the year.

Official data released late last month showed India’s GDP expanded a lower-than-expected 5.4 percent in the third quarter of the current financial year. Economists in a CNBC-TV18 poll had pegged the country’s Q3 GDP growth at 5.7 percent.

Investors globally have central bank meetings scheduled this week. The Fed is widely expected to announce a hike in pandemic-era interest rates.

Fears of earlier-and-faster-than expected hikes in COVID-era interest rates has sent jitters across global financial markets in the recent past.

The RBI’s next bi-monthly policy review is due in April.

Catch latest stock market updates with CNBCTV18.com’s blog

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Citi India ups inflation forecast for FY23; cuts GDP growth forecast marginally

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Citi cut India’s FY23 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 50 bps to 7.5 percent. The GDP growth could fall closer to 7 percent if crude oil prices remained elevated, Citi India stated.

Citi India has increased the consumer price index (CPI) inflation forecast for FY23 by 70 basis points (bps) to 5.7 percent. One basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point.

The CPI could inch to 6.3 percent in FY23 if oil prices remain at $110-120 per barrel, the rating agency stated.

The crude price rose on Friday but extended its decline from its 14-year high. It came off from $136 per barrel of a high to $109 per barrel. This was after Russia pledged to fulfil contractual obligations.

Citi cut India’s FY23 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 50 bps to 7.5 percent. The GDP growth could fall closer to 7 percent if crude oil prices remained elevated, Citi India stated.

India’s GDP was expected to grow at 9 percent in the third quarter of FY22, Citi had said in a report in January 2022.

For FY22, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had recently forecast 8.9 percent growth in GDP as against 9.2 percent previously.
For the current financial year, Citi forecast India’s GDP growth at 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, as against the NSO’s estimate of 4.8 percent.
Vikas Halan, Associate Managing Director of Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Services in an interview to CNBC-TV18 earlier this month had said that crude prices could move even higher from the current levels.
He said that if the Russia-Ukraine war prolonged then oil could be in the range of $100-150 in the next couple of quarters. He had said he also expected the oil prices to remain elevated for 2-3 years.

The oil market had kicked off this year on a positive note. Oil prices had surged nearly 50 percent last year, spurred by the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump and restraint on production.

Citi global forecast the average for Brent crude at $84 per barrel in FY23 versus $67 earlier.

On Thursday, Brent crude futures were up 2.8 percent, at$114.24 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 1.5 percent, at $110.28 a barrel.

Citi global’s bull case for crude was $119 per barrel for FY23.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI Monetary Policy: Central bank leaves repo rate unchanged; Guv Das says inflation expected to peak in Q4

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The RBI MPC voted unanimously to keep policy rates unchanged. While a majority of 5:1 decided to continue with “accommodative”  stance. 

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged in its February policy meeting, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. With no change this time as well, the repo rate currently stands at 4 percent. The reverse repo rate has been maintained at 3.35 percent.

The MPC voted unanimously to keep policy rates unchanged. While a majority of 5:1 decided to continue with “accommodative”  stance. The “accommodative” stance could continue for as long as necessary to revive growth, said Das while announcing policy.

The repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of the country lends funds to the commercial banks. The commercial banks borrow funds only if they witness a shortfall in their funds. The monetary policy committee of a country uses the reverse repo rate as a tool to control the money supply in the country.

The announcement is in line with the Street’s expectations as largely it was expecting a status quo by the central bank this time as well.

The MSF rate has also been left unchanged at 4.25 percent.

The governor said that the central bank has been continuously taking efforts to limit disruption caused by the pandemic to the economic activity. Das said that policy actions of RBI have yielded desired result and now the central bank has turned to rebalance liquidity. “Passive liquidity management worked well in the pandemic,” he said.

The governor said that current account deficit is seen contained well below 2 percent of GDP for FY22 and that Indian rupee has shown resilience. “RBI will insulate domestic market from global spillovers,” said Das.

However, Das stated that continued policy support is needed for durable and broad-based recovery.

The RBI has projected Q1FY23 GDP growth at 17.2 percent while it sees Q2 growth at 7 percent, Q3 growth at 4.3 percent and Q4 growth at 4.5 percent. The central bank forecasts FY23 GDP growth at 7.8 percent.

According to Das, capacity utilisation is rising and aiding in investment demand.

Das said that CPI inflation has edged higher but along the expected lines and the headline inflation is expected to peak in Q4FY22 and then moderate in H2FY23.

Easing food prices are adding to optimism but hardening crude oil prices remain a major upside risk, said Das. Transmission of costs remains muted on slack in demand, he added.

The central bank has maintained the CPI inflation forecast of 5.3 percent for FY22 and forecasts FY23 CPI inflation at 4.5 percent. It sees CPI inflation at 4.9 percent for Q1FY23, 5 percent for Q2, 4 percent for Q3 and 4.2 percent for Q4.

VRRRS have become the main option for managing liquidity, said Das, adding that the effective reverse repo rate rose from 3.37 percent in August 2021 to 3.87 percent on Feb 4, 2022.

System liquidity remains in large surplus, according to Das, who said that auctions of longer maturities will be conducted as needed.

Among other important announcements, the on-tap credit for health, contact intensive services is extended till June from March, FPI voluntary retention route cap has been raised to Rs 2.5 tn and e-rupee voucher cap has been raised from Rs 10,000 to Rs 1 lakh per voucher.

 

Follow our live blog on the RBI monetary policy here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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‘Growth-oriented, boost for infra’: How brokerages are reading Budget 2022

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Union Budget 2022: Most brokerages are viewing Budget 2022 to be growth-oriented with a focus on infrastructure. According to Goldman Sachs, the government’s push on infrastructure remains the key theme of the Budget.

Indian equity benchmarks continued to rise on Wednesday as investors cheered Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget for FY23. In its Union Budget, which comes at a time when the economy continues to struggle against the fallout from the COVID pandemic, the government raised spending to aid growth. 

The Finance Minister’s fourth Union Budget was largely perceived to be growth-oriented with a push on infrastructure.

Morgan Stanley said the Union Budget 2022 lays out a gradual path to fiscal consolidation with a push for capex-driven growth and efforts to crowd in private capex. Goldman Sachs said the push on infrastructure remains the key theme of the Budget.

How brokerages are reading Union Budget 2022

Morgan Stanley said the Budget math is largely reasonable with potential upside for tax revenue estimates. The brokerage expects the country’s growth in FY23 at 8.4 percent.

It expects RBI to start policy normalisation with a reverse repo rate hike in February. The brokerage sees a hike in the repo rate by the central bank in its April policy review.

The central bank is due to conduct a bi-monthly review next week.

The RBI’s policy meeting comes at a time when its US counterpart has signalled a rate hike in March. The Fed has also reaffirmed plans to end its pandemic-era bond buys.

Goldman Sachs said the government’s 35.4 percent raise in its allocation to the central capex is the highest in recent history.

 

Credit Suisse said that the government may have to lower its borrowing target and lower yields during FY23. 

CLSA said the Budget is growth-oriented but the focus remains on the supply-side. The brokerage raised its March 2023 forecast for the 10-year bond yield to 7.5 percent from 7.25 percent.

UBS said the Budget retains growth focus but goes slow on fiscal consolidation.

Winners and losers

Higher yields and lack of demand focus may further hurt the attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, according to CLSA.

The brokerage sees the Budget 2022 accelerating sectoral rotation from the expensive consumption and IT spaces to investment-focused pockets. It expects infrastructure, cement and capital goods sectors, along with cigarette-to-hotel conglomerate ITC, as gainers of the Budget. 

The defence budget should be seen positively for HAL, Bharat Forge and Larsen & Toubro, and the cut in rural employment guarantee negative for the cement, consumer and auto spaces, it said.

Jefferies said the Union Budget supports its positive investment thesis for the industrial sector, with Larsen & Toubro, Siemens and Thermax being its top picks. It believes L&T is likely to be a beneficiary of the government’s Gati Shakti plan, which will be unveiled gradually.

It sees BEL as a key beneficiary of the government’s 10 percent year-on-year increase in capex for the defence space.

According to UBS, the Union Budget for FY23 is good for the infrastructure sector but bad for valuations. It raised its 10-year government bond yield forecast to 7.5 percent.

 

According to Investec, cement, tiles, steel and pipe proxies will be beneficiaries of the Budget for FY23. It views the government’s status quo on stainless steel duties as a negative.

Read more from CNBC-TV18’s budget coverage here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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 5 Minutes Read

Union Budget: How experts are reading Budget 2022 announcements

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Union Budget 2022: As the Finance Minister unveils the Union Budget for FY23, CNBC-TV18 spoke with a stellar lineup of experts to deode what the announcements mean for the market, the economy and the common man.

Union Budget 2022: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her fourth straight annual Budget in Parliament on February 1, 2022. The Union Budget for FY23 was largely perceived to be growth-oriented. The Finance Minister set a capital expenditure target of Rs 7.5 lakh crore for the year beginning April 2022, with effective capex pegged at Rs 10.7 lakh crore.

The Budget pegs fiscal deficit — which occurs when a government’s revenue falls short of its expenditure — at 6.9 percent in FY22, and 6.4 percent in the next fiscal year.

CNBC-TV18 spoke with a number of experts to decode the Budget 2022-23 for the common man. Market veterans Shankar Sharma, Raamdeo Agrawal and Madhu Kela, along with Taimur Baig, MD and Chief Economist at DBS Group Research and Dinesh Kanabar, CEO of Dhruva Advisors shared their first thoughts on the Budget. Here’s what they said:

“I think there will be enough and more for all the sectors to perform particularly the financial sector, banking sector. The stress on the credit side will come off as the growth picks up. Banking system will benefit a lot. This Budget could be inflationary and that would be good for the corporate profit growth,” said Agrawal.

Also Read: Budget 2022 looks at sunrise areas of growth, says Amitabh Kant

“I am quite pleased to see the numbers. Any budget – first of all you have to look at the transparency and the credibility of the numbers. I think the numbers look quite credible. There are slew of measures which are being taken for individual sectors which should be very positive. So this government has delivered on all counts in this budget. There is transparency, there is credibility, there is continuation to the policy of capital expenditure, to support the ecosystem, the start-up system and also there is clear emphasis on technology. One more thing I like is the attack on the cryptocurrency because that was getting a lot of smaller investors involved. So the government intent is clear – by the way they taxed and also have imposed TDS on digital transactions. Overall very good for the markets,” said Kela.

“When I was going through the budget speech of the finance minister and when I was looking at my investment list, I think I had inside information on what the finance minister was going to do. You are talking drones, organic farming, electric vehicles (EVs), equipment manufacturing for 5G, optical fiber cables – every single of those spaces are where I have either invested or I am planning to invest. So I have no cause for complaint,” Sharma mentioned.

Also Read: Budget 2022: Focus on infrastructure development will enhance metal intensity in economy: Tata Steel’s Koushik Chatterjee

“I think that the budget is big on growth and very little on equity. I also feel that at a time when we have high commodity prices, rising interest rates, tight liquidity globally, rising geopolitical tension, India does not exist in a vacuum, this budget should have been a little more informed about the headwinds that are coming on the macroeconomic side. There are lot of things in the budget that are great for the equity markets and that has been discussed but my point is that I look at India from the outside, I look at India probably from the fixed income market perspective and I don’t have too much to cheer on,” said Baig.

According to Kanabar, the first very important positive is the reduction of the capital gains tax. The direction is absolutely right.

For all the latest updates on Union Budget 2022, follow our LIVE blog here

For full coverage of Union Budget 2022, click here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?