5 Minutes Read

Significantly lower probability of 75 bps RBI rate hike in mid-December: SBI Research

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The RBI’s upcoming unscheduled meeting is only a part of the regulatory obligation and “we do not believe any other agenda to be announced at this meeting”, according to SBI Research, the research arm of SBI, India’s largest bank by assets.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to deliver a 50-basis-point hike in the key lending rate in mid-December, with a significantly lower probability of a rise of 75 basis points, according to SBI Research, the research arm of India’s largest lender by assets. The report comes days ahead of an out-of-cycle meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), where the RBI’s interest rate-deciding panel is likely to discuss its response to the government explaining why inflation has not been brought under control.

“The unscheduled meeting is only a part of the regulatory obligation, and we do not believe any other agenda to be announced at this meeting,” SBI Research said in its Ecowrap report.

This will be the first time since the monetary policy framework, introduced in 2016, which requires the RBI to submit a report to the Centre on failure to keep retail inflation below six percent for three consecutive quarters.

The recent MPC minutes suggest some members are looking for an early end to the rate hike cycle, SBI Research said.

Globally, investors await the outcome of two-day deliberations at the Fed, which begin on Tuesday, where the US central bank is likely to decide on a 75-bps hike in the benchmark interest rates.

SBI Research also pointed out that unseasonal rains in several parts of the country, including certain foodgrain-producing states, significantly affect Kharif crops. In Uttar Pradesh, unseasonal rainfall was more than 400 percent above average and 54 percent above normal across the country as a whole, it said.

Can the consumer expect prices to cool off in the near future?

Prices of grains, vegetables, milk, pulses and edible oil, which account for more than a quarter of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the official reading of retail inflation in India — are likely to remain high in the coming months, according to SBI Research.

In 2019, when rainfall was 44 percent above normal in October, consumer inflation averaged 10.9 percent against 4.9 percent in the preceding three months.

This suggests unseasonal rains may negatively impact food inflation in the coming months, according to SBI’s research team.

Catch the latest market updates with CNBCTV18.com’s blog

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Samvat 2079 | GDP growth trend appears to be better than feared: Neelkanth Mishra

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

According to Neelkanth Mishra, the GDP growth trends appears to be better than feared. Many volume indicators show 3-year CAGR in Q2 GDP more than 2 percent currently expected by consensus.

Neelkanth Mishra, Co-Head of Equity Strategy, Asia Pacific and India Equity Strategist, Securities Research at Credit Suisse on Friday said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth trend appears to be better than feared.

“The current economic growth rate is at 9 percent and slowing down means it could be at 7 percent,” he told CNBC-TV18.

He said that recovery from pandemic has been decent.

“Also, the economic pace which we are seeing now is much better than what expected,” he added.

According to him, many volume indicators show 3-year CAGR in Q2 GDP more than 2 percent currently expected by consensus.

From a medium term perspective, he said that there are several drivers of growth.

“Construction cycle is improving and real estate inventory is low. Bank results have been good this earnings season. India’s critical services sector has not yet started to slow down. Significant improvement can be seen in infrastructure,” he told CNBC-TV18.

ALSO READ | Samvat 2079: Vetri Subramaniam expects earning cuts as global recession fear looms

However, he added that there could be some impact of the global growth slowdown.

“We will be impacted by interest rate hikes seen in the country,” he said.

Also, he believes that growth may slow further due to weakness in services exports.

“Falling global goods prices may ease balance of payments adjustment. With rupee falling, balance of payments adjustment is now underway,” he added.

Also Read |  Samvat 2079: Economists evaluate India and growth ahead

For more details, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

India’s unemployment rate eases from 1-year high to 6.43% in September: Think-tank CMIE

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

India’s unemployment rate eased to 6.43 percent in September from a one-year high of 8.3 percent in the previous month, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private think-tank.

India’s unemployment rate came down to 6.43 percent in September, from a one-year high in the previous month, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). In August, the unemployment rate — or the percentage of unemployed people in the labour force — had stood at 8.3 percent.

”In September, the unemployment rate has fallen significantly with an increase in labour participation in both urban and rural areas,” said Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director, CMIE.

In August, the rate had spiked owing to a fall of two million in employment sequentially to 394.6 million, according to the private think-tank.

The latest CMIE reading comes a day after the RBI brought down its GDP growth forecast for the country’s economy to 7 percent from 7.2 percent for the year ending March 2023.

However, it raised its forecast the economy to expand 7.2 percent in the quarter ending June 2023, as against 6.7 percent previously.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate — or the key interest rate at which it lends short-term funds to commercial banks — by 50 basis points to 5.9 percent, and decided to continue with its current stance of “withdrawal of accommodation”.

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das warned of more rate hikes in the coming months, as inflation continues to reel beyond its target range.

Most economists cheered the absence of surprises in the RBI policy statement.

ALSO READ: What the Street makes of RBI’s rate hike and warning

India’s GDP expanded 13.5 percent in the April-June period compared with the corresponding three months a year ago. The growth rate, however, fell short of expectations of 15 percent by economists polled by CNBC-TV18.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

RBI says India’s banking system liquidity in deficit for first time in 40 months

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The Indian government has taken a number of other measures to battle inflation including imposing curbs on rice exports last week after previously restricting exports of wheat and sugar while reducing taxes on gasoline and diesel earlier.

The Reserve Bank of India has said that India’s banking system liquidity has slipped into deficit for the first time in nearly 40 months, Reuters reported.

Biggest since May 2019, the central bank infused Rs 218 billion ($2.73 billion) into the banking system on Tuesday. Overnight rates have continued to stay elevated, with the one-day call money rate jumping to 5.85 percent which is the highest since July 2019.

Citing sources, Reuters also reported that India’s government is in no hurry to push inflation – which is near to 7 percent and eight-year highs – back to the central bank’s 4 percent medium-term target.

The reason behind this move is that aggressive rate hikes could hurt economic growth.

The sources further said that inflation is getting under control now after RBI’s rate rises of 140 basis points over the past four months to 5.4 percent and is expected to head back under 6 percent within three to six months.

“We are in no hurry to get inflation to 4 percent. Growth and inflation have to be balanced,” said one of the sources.

“New Delhi would be comfortable with inflation coming below 6 percent in the next three to six months,” the source added. “Our inflation is under control especially after a series of measures from the government and the RBI.” India’s finance ministry did not reply.

Established in 2016, RBI’s inflation-targeting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is mandated to keep inflation within a band extending 2 percentage points either side of its 4 percent target.

Central banks across the countries are also worried about inflation have been raising rates aggressively, with the US Fed widely expected to raise rates by at least 75 basis points on Wednesday.

The Indian government has taken a number of other measures to battle inflation including imposing curbs on rice exports last week after previously restricting exports of wheat and sugar while reducing taxes on gasoline and diesel earlier.

India’s April-June economic growth of 13.5 percent was lower than the RBI’s forecast of 16.2 percent, threatening the overall growth projection of 7.5 percent for the full year.

Last week, global ratings agency Fitch cut India’s FY23 growth forecast to 7 percent from 7.8 percent.

-With inputs from Reuters

Also Read: ADB cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 7% for FY23 on high inflation, monetary tightening

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Moody’s says inflation, global factors unlikely to impact India’s recovery

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The agency says India’s economic environment could lead to a gradual reduction in the general fiscal deficit over the next few years but higher debt burden and weak debt affordability are some of the risks.

Moody’s Investors Service has retained its sovereign rating on India at Baa3 with a stable outlook, it said in a press release.

According to the rating agency, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation that hit a multi-year high recently, and global financial conditions are unlikely to affect the country’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“With higher capital buffers and greater liquidity, banks and nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) pose much less risk to the sovereign than we previously anticipated, facilitating the ongoing recovery from the pandemic,” it said.

The agency says India’s economic environment could lead to a gradual reduction in the general fiscal deficit over the next few years but higher debt burden and weak debt affordability are some of the risks.

“Principal credit challenges include low per capita income, high general government debt, low debt affordability and limited government effectiveness,” the agency said.

The agency has projected India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.6 percent for FY23 and 6.3 percent for FY24.

Earlier, Moody’s slashed India’s economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 percent from its May projection of 8.8 percent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.

According to Moody’s, services and manufacturing sectors have seen robust upswings in the economic activity.

The agency has cut the GDP growth forecast for G-20 countries to 2.5 percent from 3.1 percent in May. GDP growth forecast for the year 2023 has also been reduced to 2.1 percent from 2.9 percent.

According to the agency, the advanced economies of the G-20 will grow by 2.1 percent in 2022 and 1.1 percent in the next year. For the G-20 developing market countries, Moody’s forecasts growth of 3.3 percent in 2022 and 3.8 percent for the next year.

 

Also Read: As Liz Truss gears up to take over as UK Prime Minister, what is in store for India?

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Indian economy can touch $20 trillion by 2047, says Bibek Debroy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

India will also be among the high human development category countries by 2047, Bibek Debroy said.

Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), has said that the Indian economy can reach $20 trillion by 2047 if the annual average growth of the country is 7-7.5 percent in the next 25 years.

Releasing ‘The Competitiveness Roadmap for India@100’, Debroy also said the country’s annual per capita income will be over $10,000 if the said growth rate is achieved in the next 25 years.

India will also be among the high human development category countries by 2047, he further said at the event.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious target of making India a developed nation by 2047. The world’s sixth largest economy with a GDP of $2.7 trillion is currently classified as a developing nation.

A developed country is typically characterised by a relatively high level of economic growth, higher per capita income as well as performing well on the Human Development Index (HDI).

 

(With inputs from PTI)

Also Read: Lack of standardisation in fraud reporting across lenders: Kotak Mahindra Bank

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

India could emerge as Asia’s strongest economy in 2022-23, says Morgan Stanley

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The brokerage expects India’s growth to average 7 percent for 2022-2023 and contribute 28 percent and 22 percent to Asian and global growth, respectively.

India could emerge as Asia’s strongest economy in 2022-2023 as it is best-positioned to generate robust domestic demand, helped by economic policy reforms, a young workforce and business investments, Morgan Stanley economists said.

The brokerage expects India’s growth to average 7 percent for 2022-2023 and contribute 28 percent and 22 percent to Asian and global growth, respectively.

Morgan Stanley’s projection comes as Asia’s third-largest economy grew 9.2 percent in the fiscal year 2022, a sharp recovery from a 6.6 percent contraction in the previous year as COVID-19 lockdowns took a severe toll on its economy. The country now expects GDP growth for 2022-2023 at 8 percent to 8.5 percent.

Also read: Government invites application from firms looking to set up private telecom networks

“Lower corporate taxes, the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and India as a potential beneficiary of supply chain diversification will catalyse and sustain domestic demand, especially in investment,” the economists said in a note dated Tuesday.

In 2019, India had cut corporate tax rates to woo manufacturers and revive private investment, and launched the PLI scheme in 2020 to aid domestic manufacturing.

The brokerage sees risks related to higher energy prices, spurred by the Ukraine war and supply constraints, to remain, but added that they have begun to recede.

Also read: Dow Futures soared 400 points as the US inflation data showed that the price rise in July was less than what the market had feared

Morgan Stanley’s outlook also comes as developed economies paint a glum picture, with business activity in the United States and eurozone contracting in July, as per their PMI data.

“The economy is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is being unleashed,” the brokerage said, adding that “healthy” corporate balance sheets and business confidence bodes well for India’s investment outlook.

While India, like other economies, raised interest rates to battle inflation, Morgan Stanley said the country’s 39.45 trillion rupee (USD 529.7 billion) budget for the current fiscal year has continued to tilt towards lifting public investment.

It expects domestic consumption to pick up and services exports to hold up better than goods exports.

Also read: The Indian Real Estate Reboot

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

‘Our umbrella strong but inflation a worry’: Key highlights of RBI monetary policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

RBI Policy Highlights: The MPC unanimously voted to hike the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40 percent. The RBI’s decision is a response to a spike in inflation that has forced major central banks around the world to raise rates.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday announced that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 percent in its bi-monthly policy meeting. A repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of a country lends money to commercial banks.

This is the third consecutive rate hike by the RBI. The RBI’s decision is a response to a spike in inflation that has forced major central banks around the world to raise rates.

The RBI maintained its retail inflation forecast at 6.7 percent while it has retained the GDP growth forecast at 7.2 percent for this year.

With strong and resilient fundamentals, India is expected to be the fastest growing economy in FY23, said Das.

However, he added that sustained high inflation could destabilise expectations and harm growth in the medium term.

Also Read: RBI hikes repo rate by 50 basis points for second time in a row to tackle inflation

Here are the key highlights:

  • The MPC unanimously voted to hike the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40 percent and keep the stance unchanged.
  • Focus remains on withdrawal of ‘accommodation’ to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth.
  • Domestic economic activity resilient, progressing broadly along the lines of the June MPC resolution.
  • Consumer price inflation eased from its surge in April but remains uncomfortably high.
  • Volatility in global financial markets is impinging upon domestic financial markets.

Inflation Forecast

  • CPI Inflation projection for FY23 retained at 6.7 percent
  • Q2 CPI seen at 7.1 percent vs the earlier 7.4 percent
  • Q3 CPI seen at 6.4 percent vs the earlier 6.2 percent
  • Q4 CPI projection retained at 5.8 percent
  • Q1 FY24 CPI seen at 5 percent
  • Incipient signs of factors that could lead to further softening of domestic inflationary pressures
  • There remain significant uncertainties with respect to inflation

Also Read: RBI retains retail inflation forecast at 6.7% for FY23

Growth Forecast

  • Real GDP growth forecast for FY23 retained at 7.2 percent
  • Q1 FY23 GDP growth forecast retained at 16.2 percent
  • Q2 FY23 forecast retained at 6.2 percent
  • Q3 FY23 forecast retained at 4.1 percent
  • Q4 FY23 forecast retained at 4 percent
  • Q1FY24 GDP growth seen at 6.7 percent
  • Domestic economic activity remains resilient
  • Rural demand indicators exhibited mixed signals
  • Capacity utilisation in manufacturing sector now above its long-run average, signaling need for fresh investment activity in additional capacity creation
  • Increase in capacity utilisation, govt’s capex push, large expansion in bank credit should support investment activity

Also Read: GDP growth projection for 2022-23 is retained at 7.2%: RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das

Liquidity

  • Surplus liquidity has come down to Rs 3.8 lakh crore during June-July from Rs 6.7 lakh crore during April-May
  • RBI will remain vigilant on liquidity front, conduct two-way fine-tuning operations as warranted (VRR and VRRR)

Also Read: SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors rise but HDFC, SBI Cards, Maruti fall after RBI’s 50-bps hike

On Rupee

  • The governor said that the rupee has moved in a relatively orderly fashion depreciating by 4.7 percent in FY23 against dollar, faring much better than several reserve currencies and EME and Asian peers
  • Depreciation of the rupee is more on account of the appreciation of the US dollar rather than weakness in macro fundamentals of Indian economy
  • Market interventions by RBI have helped in containing volatility
  • RBI has ensured orderly movement of the rupee
  • RBI will remain watchful and focused on maintaining stability of rupee

Catch LIVE updates on RBI policy here

Additional Measures 

  • Master Direction on Managing Risks in Outsourcing of Financial Services.
    To issue draft RBI (Managing Risks and Code of Conduct in Outsourcing of Financial Services) Directions, 2022, for public comments shortly
  • Inclusion of Credit Information Companies (CICs) under RBI’s Integrated Ombudsman Scheme
  • Standalone Primary Dealers (SPDs): Proposed to enable SPDs to offer all foreign exchange market-making facilities as currently permitted to Category-I Authorised Dealers. Permitting SPDs to deal in offshore Foreign Currency Settled Overnight Indexed Swap Market
  • Committee on MIBOR Benchmark: To set up a committee to undertake an in-depth examination of issues, including need for transition to an alternate benchmark
  • Enabling Bharat Bill Payment System (BBPS) to process cross-border inbound bill payments

Catch latest market updates with CNBCTV18.com’s blog

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

RBI hikes repo rate by 50 basis points for second time in a row to tackle inflation

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

RBI’s third rate hike comes as part of its efforts to control inflation that hit a multi-year high recently, forcing major central banks across the world to take this path.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to increase the repo rate — the rate at which the central bank of the country lends funds to the commercial banks — by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.40 percent in its bi-monthly policy meeting, Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. One basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point.

This was the second 50 bps hike in a row. The RBI has hiked the policy rate three times in a row now.

This decision comes as part of the RBI’s efforts to control inflation that recently hit a multi-year high, forcing major central banks worldwide to take the rate hike path.

“The MPC remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation remains within target going forward while supporting growth,” said Das while announcing the policy.

With this hike, the repo rate is returning to pre-pandemic levels, the highest since August 2019.

Also Read: Your home loan set to hit a three-year high as RBI hikes repo rate: Check details here

After a long pause during the COVID-19 period, the RBI started the rate increase cycle in May this year with a 40-basis-point hike in an unscheduled announcement. This was followed by another rate hike of 50 basis points in June.

The three-day RBI policy meet started on August 3 and ended today, with the committee unanimously deciding to increase the repo rate. The latest rate hike is largely in line with the Street’s expectations.

Also Read: NRIs can pay now pay for bills in India directly

A CNBC-TV18 poll of economists and market watchers had predicted a 35 bps hike. A majority believe that the repo rate will be at 5.75 percent by December this year and touch 6 percent by the time this rate hike cycle ends.

According to the central bank, the domestic economy faces headwinds from global forces such as geo-political tensions, rising financial market volatility, tightening financial conditions and recessionary concerns.

However, Das said, “our umbrella remains strong”. With strong and resilient fundamentals, India is expected to be the fastest growing economy in FY23, according to him.

Also Read: GDP growth projection for 2022-23 is retained at 7.2%: RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das

He said that the country’s current account deficit would remain within comfortable limits, adding that external debt to GDP fell from 21.2 percent in March 2021 to 19.9 percent in March 2022.

“India’s financial sector remains well capitalised and sound and forex reserves provide insurance against global spillovers,” the RBI governor said.

However, he added that sustained high inflation could destabilise expectations and harm growth in the medium term. “Inflationary pressures are broad-based, core inflation remains at elevated levels,” said Das.

Also Read: RBI retains retail inflation forecast at 6.7% for FY23

RBI said that the investment activity is picking up with the capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector now above its long-term average and bank credit growth accelerating to 14 percent year-on-year as of July 15.

RBI said that it would remain vigilant on the liquidity front and conduct two-way fine-tuning operations (VRR and VRRR) as warranted. It said that surplus liquidity has come down to Rs 3.8 lakh crore during June-July.

On rupee depreciation, the governor said, “Depreciation of INR is more on account of appreciation of USD than weakness in fundaments of Indian economy.” He said RBI had ensured orderly movement of the rupee.

Also Read: View: RBI moves quickly to stabilise forex rate but these measures might help rupee more

Catch LIVE updates on RBI policy here

Click here for other market news.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Asian Development Bank cuts India GDP forecast for FY23 to 7.2% on Covid, Ukraine war impact

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

In April, the Manila-headquartered multilateral funding agency had forecast the Indian economy to grow by 7.5 percent. China grew by 8.1 percent in 2021, as against 8.7 percent economic growth recorded by India during fiscal 2021-22.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday trimmed India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.2 percent from 7.5 percent as pandemic and war impact is weighing down alongside inflationary pressures.

India, however, will continue to surpass China which is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2022 as against the earlier estimate of 5 percent. In 2023 also, China is expected to grow by 4.8 per cent.

In April, the Manila-headquartered multilateral funding agency had forecast the Indian economy to grow by 7.5 percent. China grew by 8.1 percent in 2021, as against 8.7 percent economic growth recorded by India during fiscal 2021-22.

For India, ADB also revised downwards the economic growth in the fiscal ended March 2022 to 8.7 percent from 8.9 percent estimated earlier. “India has been hit by the omicron COVID-19 variant and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. Consequently, GDP growth for FY2021 is revised down from 8.9 percent to 8.7 percent and from 7.5 percent to 7.2 per cent for FY2022 (fiscal to be ending in March 2023).

Also Read: India’s FY23 growth forecast cut to 7%: FICCI survey

“Although consumer confidence continues to improve, higher-than-expected inflation will erode consumer purchasing power,” ADB said in its supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for 2022 released on Thursday. Some of the impacts of this may be offset by a cut in excise duties, provision of fertilizer and gas subsidies, and extension of a free food distribution programme.

Private investment will soften due to higher cost of borrowing for firms as the RBI continues to raise policy rates to contain inflation. For South Asian region which includes India – it has lowered the growth forecast from 7 percent to 6.5 percent for 2022 and from 7.4 percent to 7.1 per cent for 2023, mainly due to the economic crisis in Sri Lanka and high inflation and associated monetary tightening in India.

South Asia’s economy is expected to expand less than ADO 2022’s projection. This mainly reflects a modest downward revision to India’s forecast GDP growth due to higher-than-anticipated inflation since April and monetary tightening, and Sri Lanka’s sharp GDP contraction due to the country’s sovereign debt and balance-of-payment crises. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan are the other countries in South Asia.

For India, it said net exports will shrink due to subdued global demand and a rising real effective exchange rate eroding export competitiveness despite a depreciating rupee. On the supply side, higher commodity prices will boost the mining industry. But manufacturing firms will bear the brunt of higher input costs due to rising oil prices.

The services sector, hit hard by COVID-19 since 2020, will do well in FY2022 and beyond as the economy opens up and travel resumes. “The economic impact of the pandemic has declined across most of Asia, but we are far from a full and sustainable recovery,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

Also Read: RBI postpones MPC meet for setting rates to August 3

On top of the slowdown in the PRC (People’s Republic of China), the fallout from the war in Ukraine has added to inflationary pressure that’s causing central banks around the world to raise interest rates, acting as a brake on growth. It’s crucial to address all these global uncertainties, which continue to pose risks to the region’s recovery, Park said.

On India’s inflationary outlook, ADB said for FY2022 it is revised up from 5.8 percent to 6.7 percent on higher-than-expected oil prices. The inflation projection for FY2023 is raised from 5 percent to 5.8 percent. On China, ADO said, in addition to lockdown-induced weakness in household consumption, a further burden on the PRC’s economy is that the housing market has not stabilised.

Average new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.8 percent year-on-year in May 2022, despite a reduction in the mortgage-rate floor for first-home buyers and a cut of 15 basis points in the 5-year loan prime rate in May.

“With household demand hit by recent COVID-19 outbreaks, adding to the ongoing stress in the property market, the growth forecast for the PRC is revised down by 1 percentage point to 4 per cent in 2022,” said the ADO Supplement.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?