Trade Setup for September 15: Nifty 50 set to achieve this feat for the first time in five months
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)
Summary
This will also be the first instance since April this year, where the Nifty 50 would gain in excess of one percent for back-to-back weeks.
What a week this has been for the Nifty 50. More importantly, what a series this is turning out to be for the Nifty 50. The index has declined only once in the entire series, that too a mere 3 points. It not only scaled the mark of 20,000, but has also managed to sustain above it.
For the week, the index is now up 1.4 percent. In case the Nifty 50 manages to close above 20,206 on Friday, this would turn out to be its best week since June. However, this will also be the first instance since April this year, where the Nifty 50 would gain in excess of one percent for back-to-back weeks.
The broader markets are also slowly trying to recover the wounds of Tuesday. The Nifty Midcap index ended nearly a percent higher on Thursday. Interestingly, the index has declined only thrice over the last one month. The Smallcap index is now just 250 points away from recovering all of Tuesday’s losses.
Key Levels To Watch
- Nifty 50: 20,166 (Thursday’s high) and 20,206 (For best week since June)
- Nifty Bank: 46,159 (Thursday’s High) and 46,369 (All-Time High)
- Nifty Smallcap: 12,982 – For recovering all of Tuesday’s losses
- Nifty Midcap: 41,444 – For recovering all of Tuesday’s losses
What Are The Experts Saying?
Anshul Saigal of Kotak PMS told CNBC-TV18 that while he will be cautious on the broader markets for the near term, he is extremely bullish on midcaps and smallcaps for a five-year period.
“I would be extremely bullish on this space because I think that there are multiple factors leading to significant growth in this space over the next three, five years. Short term valuations clearly are stretched. So broadly, you should be cautious in the short term, long term very bullish,” he said.
Dean Kim of William O’Neil said that investors should start trimming positions if stocks do not manage to move above their 50-Day Moving Average. He advised focusing on largecap stocks, within which, TCS and Cipla rank as his preferred bets. Among the broader markets, he listed Varun Beverages and TVS Motor as his preferred picks.
What Do Nifty 50’s Charts Indicate?
Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities believes that as long as the Nifty 50 trades above the mark of 20,000, the positive sentiment will take it higher to levels of 20,180 – 20,225. On the flip side, a slip below 20,000 may drag the index lower towards 19,900.
A buy-on-dips strategy should remain in place until the Nifty 50 falls decisively below the 19,900 mark, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. He expects significant resistance at 20,100 due to the high Open Interest concentration on the Call side. Above 20,100, he sees a strong rally in the short-term.
Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One said that the Nifty 50’s ability to defend its previous swing high of 19,991 bodes well for the index. He said that as the Nifty 50 has gained nearly 900 points within a few sessions, the next leg of the rally may not be as swift. Upside resistance is first seen at 20,200 and then at 20,450.
Nifty Bank’s Best Week Since July
The Nifty Bank is facing hurdles to get to its record high. Yet, it managed to close exactly at 46,000 on Thursday, 370 points away from its record high of 46,369. The index is up nearly 2 percent this week, which will be its best week since mid-July.
Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said that the Nifty Bank failed to deliver a decisive breakout above 46,000 but the buy-on-dips strategy remains till it holds 45,500 on the downside. “A sustained rally could materialise if the Nifty Bank decisively crosses the 46,000 mark,” he added.
Technical Analyst Mitessh Thakkar believes that 46,200 is the next key level for the Nifty Bank and a fresh round of momentum would begin once the index crosses that level. “Banking should be on the limelight for the next one to one and a half weeks from a trading point of view. 46,200 is the first target, 46,500-46,700 is the next target area,” he said.
Bombay Dyeing’s Day In The Sun
Shares of Bombay Dyeing ended 9 percent higher on Thursday after the company decided to sell its land parcel for Rs 5,200 crore. The company said that this would enable them to become debt free and pay dividends in the future too. The stock, at one point, was up 20 percent, before cooling off.
““All the positives are priced into the company. But per se making an investment in Bombay Dyeing from a real estate play or from a cash value play doesn’t make sense to me. It has been a stark underperformer. They have had many missed opportunities as well and one would have thought that it would convert itself into a proper real estate company considering the land bank it is sitting on, but the company is looking at selling off its land bank. So, I don’t see any investment case in Bombay Dyeing,” Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities said.
What Are the F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50’s September futures added 7.3 percent or 7.4 lakh shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 68.9 points from 55.15 points earlier. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank’s September futures shed 8.4 percent or 1.48 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.33 from 1.25 earlier.
Balrampur Chini, BHEL and Zee Entertainment are back in the F&O ban list from today’s trading session, while Indiabulls Housing Finance, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, Manappuram Finance, SAIL, India Cements, IEX, NALCO, and REC continue to remain in the ban list.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for September 21 expiry:
For next Thursday’s expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 20,200 and 20,700 have seen significant Open Interest addition. The 20,700 strike has seen the maximum Open Interest addition.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
20,700 |
30.5 Lakh Added |
2.95 |
20,600 |
21.29 Lakh Added |
4.2 |
20,300 |
20.59 Lakh Added |
39.05 |
20,200 |
18.61 Lakh Added |
76.85 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for September 21 expiry:
On the put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 19,500 and 20,100 saw Open Interest addition for next Thursday’s expiry. The 19,000 strike put, however, saw the maximum addition in Open Interest.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
19,000 |
34.14 Lakh Added |
3.05 |
20,100 |
28.71 Lakh Added |
77.85 |
19,500 |
27.47 Lakh Added |
7.2 |
20,000 |
18.26 Lakh Added |
46.45 |
Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh long positions on Thursday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Dr Lal Pathlabs |
4.03% |
23.35% |
BHEL |
0.62% |
23.35% |
Granules India |
4.31% |
12.59% |
ONGC |
2.20% |
11.60% |
MRF |
1.85% |
9.66% |
Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh short positions on Thursday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Asian Paints |
-1.08% |
13.06% |
Piramal Enterprises |
-0.51% |
7.92% |
Page Industries |
-0.33% |
6.50% |
Hindustan Unilever |
-0.54% |
6.13% |
Torrent Pharma |
-0.06% |
5.63% |
Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Friday’s trading session:
- Infosys: Signs MoU with a global company to provide enhanced digital experiences along with modernisation and business operations services. The total client spend over 15 years is said to be $1.5 billion subject to the parties entering into a master agreement.
- Alkem Laboratories: CNBC-TV18 newsbreak confirmed, says that the IT department is conducting a survey at some of its offices and subsidiaries. The company said that it is fully co-operating with I-T department. The action will have no impact on the operations.
- Strides Pharma: Gets tentative approval from the USFDA for Dolutegravior tablets which are used in first-line HIV treatments.
- Bharat Forge: To produce a wider range of armoured vehicles in India along with Paramount and Kalyani Steel.
- GMM Pfaudler: To acquire Professional Mixing Equipment (MixPro) for $7 million.
- Lemon Tree Hotels: Signs license agreements for two hotel properties in Junagadh and Gujarat.
- Sequent Scientific: To sell its Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients unit in Thane.
- NTPC: Signs a supplementary JV agreement with Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam. The agreement will amend JV Agreement in order to take up additional thermal power projects.
- Gufic Biosciences: Granted a patent for an invention for 20 years starting April 19, 2021.
- Patel Engineering: JV declared the lowest bidder for a Rs 250 crore irrigation project. The project is fromMaharashtra Krishna Valley Development Corporation.
What Are Global Cues Indicating?
Asian equities have opened higher on the final trading day of the week ahead of key economic data from China. The world’s second-largest economy will be releasing data for house prices, unemployment rate and retail sales, along with urban investment.
The Nikkei 225 is up over 1.1 percent, while the Topix is at a new 33-year high. SoftBank shares are up 3 percent after a strong listing of its chip-designing unit Arm Holdings on the Nasdaq on Thursday.
The Kospi in South Korea is up 0.6 percent, while the Kosdaq is flat. Hang Seng futures are indicating a positive start to the trading day.
Overnight, all major US indices ended higher on Wall Street as core producer price index climbed 0.2 percent in August, in-line with expectations. The Dow Jones ended 1 percent higher, lodging its best day since August 7, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.8 percent each.
Foreign investors emerged as surprise buyers in the cash market on Thursday, while domestic institutions were net sellers.
Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout
3 Mins Read
Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter
KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow