5 Minutes Read

How ISIS attacks could affect Saudi oil production

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Saudi Arabia has led OPEC in a policy of keeping oil production steady despite a global glut that has sent crude prices spiraling more than 60 percent since last year.

Market watchers should be looking for any indication that Saudi Arabia will stop “punishing” Russia and Iran in oil markets if last week’s terror attacks on Paris lead to a deal to stabilize Syria, Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff said Monday.

Saudi Arabia has led OPEC in a policy of keeping oil production steady despite a global glut that has sent crude prices spiraling more than 60 percent since last year.

In the past, OPEC has cut output to prop up prices, but its members have opted to defend market share, putting pressure on other oil-dependent economies, such as Russia’s.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has been at loggerheads with Russia and Iran, who back Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s civil war. The Saudis are aligned with US backed rebels.

Read More: Paris attacks unlikely to cause correction: Wilbur Ross

But Kilduff said Friday’s Paris attacks, as well as the downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt and bombings in Lebanon, could move the parties together in an attempt to stabilize Syria.

The Syria-based militant group that calls itself Islamic State and has set up a self-declared caliphate in that country and parts of Iraq has claimed responsibility for all three attacks.

“Does this sort of end the Saudi punishment of Russia and some of the others in the region because they come together finally over this to sort of strike a solution for Syria?” Kilduff asked on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“The Saudis have been punishing Russia and Iran in particular because they were backing Assad. If that ends, if they all come together and cut a deal, this could end the Saudi overproduction to a degree,” he said.

Kilduff told CNBC he does not see that scenario playing out, but said it warrants watching.

Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross also told “Squawk Box” on Monday he believed that outcome was “a very unlikely event.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Paris attacks unlikely to cause correction: Wilbur Ross

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The market response to the deadly Paris attacks was fairly tepid Monday, with major stock market indexes in France, Germany and London all higher. US futures pointed to a positive open.

The terrorist attacks in Paris are unlikely to cause a market correction, said billionaire Wilbur Ross, a major investor in European assets.

“I don’ t think this will provoke anything like a 10 percent market crack,” the chairman of distressed asset investment firm WL Ross & Co told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.

The market response to the deadly Paris attacks was fairly tepid Monday, with major stock market indexes in France, Germany and London all higher. US futures pointed to a positive open.

Read More: The ECB will fight migrants and terrorists

The so-called Islamic State claimed responsibility for the series of attacks carried out by bombers and gunmen in Paris.

Ross said the market was somewhat prepared for the event following the downing of a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and a recent bombing in Lebanon, both of which ISIS said it was behind.

“After a while there is less incremental effect on investor confidence,” he said.

Read More: Buffett: I won’t sell anything due to Paris attacks

Kathy Lien, managing director of foreign exchange strategy for BK Asset Management, also noted that the euro had not fallen as much as one would expect following a tragedy on the scale of the Paris attacks.

The euro was trading about 0.35 percent lower against the US dollar on Monday morning.

I think that the markets and people prove that terrorism doesn’t provide too much of a scare or a long-lasting impact on the human psyche, as well as the markets. Overall, I think everyone proves to be much more resilient,” she told “Squawk Box.”

Read More: How ISIS attacks could affect Saudi oil production

The market is instead focused on the prospects of further economic stimulus through quantitative easing from the European Central Bank.

As for whether economic slowdown in Europe due to lost tourism revenues and other factors could cause the Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike, Lien said the Fed is likely still waiting to see how markets react and whether the ECB will launch a “powerful” round of quantitative easing.

Ross, however, said the Fed has been looking for something to hide behind to avoid raising rates, and slowdown in Europe could provide that excuse.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Warren Buffett: I won’t sell anything due to Paris attacks

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Meanwhile, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway released its latest 13F filling Monday, revealing a boosted its stake in IBM by nearly 1.47 million shares, or just over 1.8 percent.

Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday the terrorist attacks in Paris won’t change his investment decisions.

“I’m not selling any securities because of the attacks in Paris, not at all,” he said in a phone interview with CNBC.

As for questions about whether the attacks would delay what many expect to be a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month, Buffett said: “We never do anything based on what we think the Fed or the market is going to do in the next six months.”

Read More: Paris attacks won’t cause a correction: Wilbur Ross

Meanwhile, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway released its latest 13F filling Monday, revealing a boosted its stake in IBM by nearly 1.47 million shares, or just over 1.8 percent.

When Buffett was on CNBC in September, he said he was buying IBM shares, but did not say how many. In the past six month, IBM stock has dropped nearly 24 percent as of Friday’s close.

Other highlights from the filing included details about two major stock sales: a reduction by 7 percent in Berkshire’s stake in Wal-Mart, and a 13 percent decrease in Berkshire’s stake in Goldman Sachs.

Buffett told CNBC he sold those stocks to help pay for the Precision Castparts deal, not because he’s soured on those companies. Berkshire in August agreed to buy Precision Carparts for about USD 32 billion in cash.

Buffett also said he’s selling “billions” of dollars in Munich RE and Swiss RE.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Why isn’t the yuan rising despite IMF support?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The yuan fell to an intra-day low of 6.379 per dollar on Monday, weaker than the central bank’s midpoint rate of 6.375 and the previous session’s closing quote of 6.374, as Friday’s news failed to spark buying, surprising several analysts who expected short-term bullishness.

The renminbi’s status as a global reserve currency may be effectively guaranteed following formal backing by International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff, according to economists, but traders have yet to be convinced.

The yuan fell to an intra-day low of 6.379 per dollar on Monday, weaker than the central bank’s midpoint rate of 6.375 and the previous session’s closing quote of 6.374, as Friday’s news failed to spark buying, surprising several analysts who expected short-term bullishness.

Last week, IMF staff members issued a paper to the Executive Board stating that the renminbi, also known as the yuan, met requirements to be a “freely usable” currency, proposing it should be included in the organization’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket as a fifth currency, alongside the US dollar, euro, British pound and Japanese yen.

Chinese authorities have addressed all remaining operational issues identified in an initial analysis in July, said IMF director Christine Lagarde in a statement. The organization’s final decision on the issue is expected on November 30.

Friday’s positive remarks makes yuan inclusion more than an 80 percent likely, according to United Overseas Bank. Other banks issued equally bullish remarks, with TD Securities calling SDR acceptance “a done deal.”

So, why aren’t markets cheering?

Friday’s news is an undeniable positive for the world’s second-largest economy, but it may not be enough to trigger buying just yet.

Read More: Top officials: China is totally committed to reform

“While SDR inclusion is an important milestone, it is not the end-game for the internationalization of the RMB. In the foreseeable future, China will have to continue to convince foreign institutions and individuals of the benefits of holding RMB denominated assets,” Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics, at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), wrote in a report

Until then, renminbi holdings by central banks, sovereign wealth funds and other market participants will only increase at a gradual pace, he warned.

Indeed, SDR inclusion will not immediately solve China’s long-term structural issues, echoed a note by TD Securities.

“The inclusion doesn’t in the near term materially change the currency fundamentals or fundamental demand conditions for the renminbi given capital account constraints and the fact that the existence of CNH [China’s offshore yuan] for many years already has allowed reserve managers, and those who wish to hold the renminbi for portfolio investment purposes, to gain exposure to the currency.”

There’s also another reason behind the yuan’s flat performance on Monday.

“The obvious issue is whether global reserve managers (who act on behalf of central banks) immediately buy yuan to take account of the new ‘reserve’ status and the inclusion in the SDR basket. The answer to this in my opinion is ‘unlikely’ and the impact of the yuan entering the basket is more symbolic,” explained Chris Weston, IG’s chief market strategist, in a morning note.

Read More: Here’s what the experts say on China’s big issues

For now, reserve managers are awaiting the IMF’s weighting for the yuan within the basket before buying, he said.

“It’s this figure that will likely set expectations for future yuan purchases.”

But estimates vary, with ING forecasting the Chinese currency to hold a 9 percent weight in the new SDR at the expense of the euro, yen, and pound. IG meanwhile says the percentage could top 10 percent.

Also underpinning Monday’s weakness is the fact that reserve managers are generally slower to alter portfolios, compared to other market players such as hedge funds and pension funds, Weston said.

“In theory, global central banks would have around nine months to re-weight portfolios, but one can think back to 1999 and the introduction of the euro into the SDR. Here, reserve managers didn’t really increase euro holdings until a few years later.”

Plus, central banks already have sizeable yuan holdings so they don’t need to enhance exposure at the moment, he concluded.

Friday’s terror attacks in Paris could also be weighing on the currency, TD Securities warned.

“The macro situation dictates that the US dollar may get a boost on risk aversion versus Asia due to the tragic events in Paris on Friday, which would mean pressure for the onshore and offshore yuan.”

Indeed, the bulk of major Asian currencies fell against the greenback on Monday, with the exception of the safe-haven yen.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Poll: What’s driving the yen?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The Japanese currency strengthened 0.1 percent to 122.44 per dollar in early Asian trading, after rising 0.4 percent last week. The euro weakened 0.5 percent at 131.23 against the yen, falling below the support levels at mid-131.

The Japanese yen gained ground against the US dollar and the euro early Monday, as increased geopolitical fears following Friday’s terror attacks in Paris prompted a flight to safety.

The Japanese currency strengthened 0.1 percent to 122.44 per dollar in early Asian trading, after rising 0.4 percent last week. The euro weakened 0.5 percent at 131.23 against the yen, falling below the support levels at mid-131.

Meanwhile, data released before the Tokyo market open on Monday showed Japan’s economy slipping back into recession in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted an annualized 0.8 percent in the July-September period, worse than the estimate for a 0.2 percent contraction by economists polled by Reuters and following a 1.2 percent fall in the preceding quarter.

However, some analysts say the disappointing GDP print may not spur the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to step up its already massive quantitative easing (QE) program when it convenes its monthly two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

“We don’t think further stimulus is in the pipeline for now and the GDP print doesn’t change the picture,” Izumi Devalier, Japan Economist at HSBC, told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “Our stance is that the BOJ and the government are comfortable with where the yen is. Unless there’s a significant deflationary shock in the form of a very strong currency or a significant decline in equities, their inclination is to hold.”

In the near term, expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise its key short-term rate from near zero by December may also influence the dollar-yen.

According to the CME Group, the probability of a December lift-off rose from about 58 percent to about 70 percent, after the October nonfarm payrolls report – released October 6- showed the US economy added 271,000 jobs.

“Obviously after the payroll numbers which were very strong, it’s clearly a done deal now for a hike in December,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Barclays.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Japan economy shrinks 0.8% in Q3, back in recession

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Many analysts expect the economy to grow only moderately in the current quarter as companies remain hesitant to use their record profits for wage hikes, underscoring the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in pulling Japan sustainably out of stagnation with his “Abenomics” stimulus policies.

Japan’s economy slid back into recession in July-September as uncertainty over the overseas outlook hurt business investment, putting policymakers under growing pressure to deploy new stimulus measures to support a fragile recovery.

Many analysts expect the economy to grow only moderately in the current quarter as companies remain hesitant to use their record profits for wage hikes, underscoring the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in pulling Japan sustainably out of stagnation with his “Abenomics” stimulus policies.

The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualised 0.8 percent in July-September, more than a median market forecast for a 0.2 percent contraction, government data showed on Monday.

That followed a revised 0.7 percent contraction in April-June, which was the first decline in three quarters.

Japan thus slipped back into technical recession, which is definied as two consecutive quarters of contraction, after suffering one last year due to the hit on consumer spending from a sales tax hike in April 2014.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office data showed.

The dismal reading may affect debate among politicians and policymakers on how much fiscal spending should be earmarked in a supplementary budget that is expected to be compiled this fiscal year.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, rose 0.5 percent from the previous quarter, roughly in line with a median market forecast for a 0.4 percent increase, the data showed.

Capital expenditure fell 1.3 percent, more than a median market forecast of a 0.4 percent decrease, marking a second straight quarter of declines.

Read More: Seoul summit: Big breakthrough or just hot air?

External demand added 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth, while domestic demand shaved 0.3 point off growth, the data showed.

The weak data would be of little surprise to many Bank of Japan officials, who had largely factored in the recession and expect growth to rebound in coming quarters as consumption and factory output show signs of a pick-up.

While the data will be closely scrutinized by the policymakers, the BOJ is widely expected to keep monetary policy steady at its rate review this week, analysts say.

Last month the BOJ cut its economic growth and inflation projections but held off on expanding stimulus, hoping that the economy recovers well enough to accelerate inflation to reach the its ambitious 2 percent target.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Paris attacks spark sell-off in Asian stocks

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Asian stocks were hit by a sell-off early Monday, with sentiment badly dented by Friday’s brutal terrorist attacks in Paris.

Asian stocks were hit by a sell-off early Monday, with sentiment badly dented by Friday’s brutal terrorist attacks in Paris.

The attacks, which occurred across seven locations, leaving 132 people dead and hundreds more injured, will likely have a “short, sharp effect” on equity markets, analysts say.

“The horrific events in Paris on Friday are likely to have a short, sharp effect in markets but in the long-term, real effects are more likely to influence political risk than the markets themselves,” IG’s market strategist Evan Lucas wrote in a note issued early Monday.

Meanwhile, US stock futures fell on Sunday, with the Dow futures down 150 points and the S&P futures declining 0.76 percent in early Asian trading. European equities are also not spared amid the latest tragedy; The London FTSE index is expected to open 1.8 percent lower, the German DAX down 2 percent and the French CAC losing 3.7 percent, according to spread better IG.

“[The attacks] could have a significant effect as we saw markets quickly sold off at the close as the attacks took place… so that would equate to about 100 more points off the Dow and about 10-15 more points on the S&P. [Markets] might get worse as we see some fear, “Todd Horwitz, chief strategist at Bubbatrading.com, told CNBC’s “The Rundown.”

Major US averages each lost more than 1 percent on Friday, pressured by a continued decline in oil prices, a sell-off in tech firms and soft reports on the health of the consumer. Wall Street ended the week down more than 3.5 percent, marking their worst since the week ended August 21 and breaking a 6-week winning streak.

On the other hand, commodities like gold and oil advanced as the rise in geopolitical risks prompted a flight to safety.

Spot gold notched up 0.5 percent at $1,088.41 an ounce, after touching near six-year lows on Friday, on expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to raise US interest rates next month.

West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen 0.5 percent higher at $40.95 a barrel in Asian trade, while Brent added 0.4 percent to $44.66 a barrel, recouping some of last week’s losses sparked by concerns over swelling storage of crude on both land and sea.

China stocks down

Share markets in China tracked the region-wide downbeat sentiment, with the key Shanghai Composite index easing 1.3 percent from the get-go.

Among other indexes, the CSI300 Index and the smaller Shenzhen Composite slumped more than 1 percent each. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 1.8 percent to a near six-week trough.

Investors were digesting various events that took place over the weekend, such as the announcement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) after the market close on Friday that margin finance requirements will be raised to 100 percent from 50 percent, effective November 23.

Chinese stock indexes have regained their composure in November, following a dramatic meltdown in summer, helped by a steady rise in margin trading. “The move was a pre-emptive strike against ‘irrational exuberance’ of the kind that preceded the market crash. We expect more steps will be needed because of the attractiveness of the stock market where the government is pursuing pro-market reforms and the central bank is increasing accommodation,” Tim Condon, head of research for Asia at ING Financial Markets, wrote in a note on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi, moved closer to joining other top global currencies in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket after staff at the fund gave the move a thumbs-up. IMF chief Christine Lagarde also said Friday that she supports the findings in her staff’s proposal to include the Chinese currency in its benchmark foreign exchange basket.

However, the yuan slipped at Monday’s open, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.375 per dollar, weaker than the previous fix of 6.3655 and the previous day’s close of 6.374.

Nikkei loses 1 percent

A double whammy took Japan’s Nikkei 225 index down to its lowest level in about a week. Apart from the deadly attacks in Paris, traders also remained on the sidelines after preliminary figures for Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed the world’s third-largest economy slipping back into recession.

Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 0.8 percent in the July-September period, government data showed early Monday, worse than the expected 0.2 percent contraction and following a 1.2 percent fall in the preceding quarter due to a drop in capital spending and weakening external demand across Asia.

By contrast, the Japanese yen was unchanged at 122.35 against the U.S. dollar following the data release.

Export-oriented plays were among the hardest-hit; Toyota Motor declined 1.8 percent, while Sony, Toshiba and Canon lost between 1.3 and 2.1 percent.

ASX drops 0.6 percent

Australia’s S&P ASX 200 index clawed back some losses and recovered its footing above 5,000 points in early trade, as oil and gold-related counters rose on the back of firmer commodity prices.

Earlier on, the benchmark index had plunged as much as 1.1 percent to an intra-day low of 4,979 points, which marked the bourse’s lowest level since September 30.

Gold producers such as Newcrest Mining and Evolution Mining widened gains to more than 5 percent each. Meanwhile, oil and gas producers Woodside Petroleum, Santos and Oil Search erased early losses, up between 0.8 and 1.3 percent.

Market bellwether BHP Billiton also rebounded 0.4 percent, brushing off a weaker open that was expected following a 1.3 percent slide in its U.S. ADRs.

However, lenders dwindled in the red, with National Australia Bank and Australia and New Zealand Banking among the worst performers, down more than 1 percent each.

Kospi skids 1 percent

South Korea’s Kospi index hit a near two-month low at the open.

Lotte Shopping slumped nearly 5 percent to its lowest level since August 14 on the back of news that Hotel Lotte Co. has lost its license to run a duty-free retail outlet in Seoul to Doosan Corp. The loss of the license comes amid a power struggle between the retail conglomerate’s chairman Shin Dong Bin and his elder brother. By contrast, Doosan shares surged 8.5 percent.

Heavyweight components mostly started the brand new trading week on the back foot; Samsung Electronics and Posco lost 1 percent each, but Hyundai Motor added 0.3 percent.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Economy delivers another headache to the Fed

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Friday’s economic data brought a fresh set of reminders that growth remains muted. Consumers spent less than expected in October and price pressure remains muted.

If the Federal Reserve persists on its path to raise interest rates in December, it will have to do so with little help from the economy.

Friday’s economic data brought a fresh set of reminders that growth remains muted. Consumers spent less than expected in October and price pressure remains muted.

As a result, traders are growing a bit less confident about the prospect that the Federal Open Market Committee will indeed hike rates for the first time since going to near zero in late 2008.

Futures at the CME now are pricing in a 64 percent probability of a move, down from as high as 72 percent last Friday after an October rebound in jobs creation boosted expectations the Fed would tighten.

The enthusiasm that conditions were good enough to give the central bank a green light diminished as data show the prospects of deflation in the pipeline and a consumer still unwilling to commit to strong spending. Retail sales increased just 0.1 percent in October, while the producer price index actually fell, continuing a trend.

“What a turn of events?!” Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income, said in a note. “Just when the market is convinced the Fed will raise rates at year-end based on one good employment report, we are quickly reminded that there’s more to the equation than just a one-off nonfarm payroll increase.”

The 271,000 increase in October payrolls helped offset weak reports from the previous two months. But the Fed has been more focused on the pace of wage gains than it has headline job creation numbers, and the picture on the consumer remains muddled. The conditions have collided to put pressure on financial markets — no small factor in Fed deliberations — with the S&P 500 down about 0.7 percent midday Friday.

The payrolls report also showed a 2.5 percent annualized gains in average hourly wages, but that did not translate into stronger spending. Vehicle, general merchandise and gasoline sales fell sharply, offsetting gains in restaurants, materials and furniture.

At the same time, producer prices have been facing downward pressure. The producer price index dropped 0.4 percent for the month and 1.6 percent on an annualized basis.

“The pace of retail spending has been slowing on a trend basis since the middle of 2014 and more rapidly on a three-month rate-of-change basis since the middle of Q2’15. The reason why is fairly simple — the pace of job growth has slowed and this means growth in total consumer income has slowed as well,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research. “Less income growth, less retail spending on the stuff we want to buy.” Blitz believes the Fed probably will hike in December, but the latest numbers complicate the picture.

To be sure, several economists were quick to write off the Friday numbers as not being representative of the overall economic picture. The Atlanta Fed is projecting fourth-quarter growth of 2.3 percent, which would place it as second best of the year.

“We’re not concerned or alarmed by the modest 0.1 percent rise in sales last month. If you exclude the (truly questionable) auto and gasoline components, sales increased 0.3 percent, close to the 0.4 percent most forecasters expected,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. “Our take is that the propensity of consumers to spend is a lot stronger than the advance retail sales numbers suggest.”

As for Fed watchers, then, it’s probably a case of back to the drawing board.

Next week’s consumer price index probably will carry more weight in determining the path of price inflation. And then it’s hold-your-breath time for the November payrolls report, the last one the Fed will see before convening at the Dec. 15-16 FOMC meeting and the final chance to see whether American workers are seeing sustained growth in their paychecks.

“Higher wages for employees will also give employers incentives to at least hold steady on pricing with selective price increases likely a possibility,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note. “Thus, I continue to believe that the inflation/deflation debate is not black or white and there is more than just a touch of gray in between.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Pay attention to inflation risk in 2016: Credit Suisse

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Officials at the US central bank have said they intend to raise rates from near zero gradually, but if the economy heats up, they would feel pressure to rein in prices by increasing the cost of borrowing money.

Many market watchers looking for risks ahead are focusing on China’s slowdown, but there’s a trouble spot beyond slower growth in the world’s second-largest economy, Credit Suisse’s head of global fixed income and economics research said Friday.

To be sure, investment could collapse in China and cause a significant episode, but Ric Deverell said Credit Suisse is concerned about something others are not giving enough attention: the risk inflation will creep up, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path of interest rate hikes.

Officials at the US central bank have said they intend to raise rates from near zero gradually, but if the economy heats up, they would feel pressure to rein in prices by increasing the cost of borrowing money.

Read More: The Fed’s real inflation problem

“What’s really interesting is if you look at a broad range of inflation measures in the United States, the only one that’s really below 2 percent — core inflation — is the PCE deflator, and there are some distortions in that related to health care,” Deverell said, referring to the personal consumption expenditure deflator, a measure of the cost of living.

The Fed’s target for inflation is 2 percent. Core inflation — the cost of goods minus food and energy — came in at 1.9 percent year over year in September.

“As we go through 5 percent unemployment, I think the risk is that you actually start to see some wages and inflation in the US,” he said. “Markets would reprice really quickly, and then the Fed would have to get on the case again.”

Hourly wages rose 2.5 percent year over year in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Next year is shaping up to be another tough one for investors, and that’s due in no small part to a strengthening US economy, said Deverell.

While the world normally follows the United States higher, that trend may break down as unemployment remains high in Europe and China stays mired in a structural slowdown as it transitions to a consumer economy, he said.

Read More: How do you solve a problem like China?

Deverell said the Fed will face “episodic storms” as it seeks to guide interest rates higher at the same time the European Central Bank continues to ease monetary policy to boost Europe’s economy.

“I think that means you’re going to have some really big changes in capital flows, which will be hard to trade,” he said.

Credit Suisse flagged the US dollar — particularly against the euro and Swiss franc — as its top trade in its 2016 global outlook, citing divergence in interest rate policy.

At the same time, Credit Suisse favors European equities over US stocks, though Deverell said investors will have to hedge those trades to account for the strength of the greenback.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Record oil stockpiles an ‘unprecedented buffer’: IEA

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

“Stockpiles of oil at a record 3 billion barrels are providing world markets with a degree of comfort. This massive cushion has inflated even as the global oil market adjusts to USD 50/bbl oil.” the agency noted in its November report released Friday.

Growing global oil stockpiles could offer an “unprecedented buffer” in times of geopolitical shock, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, as it forecast demand growth would slow next year.

“Stockpiles of oil at a record 3 billion barrels are providing world markets with a degree of comfort. This massive cushion has inflated even as the global oil market adjusts to USD 50/bbl oil.” the agency noted in its November report released Friday.

Global growth is forecast to slow in 2016 to 3.6 percent, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts, which has warned that “downside” risks to the world economy have grown in recent months. Although the sharp drop in oil prices is a result of oversupply rather than a lack of demand, fears surrounding the health of the global economy are keeping investors on edge.

While supply appears to have outpaced demand growth in 2015, keeping oil prices subdued at their current level of USD 44.23 a barrel for benchmark Brent while US sweet crude trades at USD 41.62, demand growth could slow next year, the IEA said, a factor that could be bearish for oil markets.

“Demand growth has risen to a five-year high of nearly 2 mb/d, with India galloping to its fastest pace in more than a decade. But gains in demand have been outpaced by vigorous production from OPEC and resilient non-OPEC supply – with Russian output at a post-Soviet record and likely to remain robust in 2016 as well. The net result is brimming crude oil stocks that offer an unprecedented buffer against geopolitical shocks or unexpected supply disruptions.”

Demand growth to ebb

Factors that have seen global oil demand growth surge in 2015 are “likely to give way” in 2016, the IEA noted, signaling that oil prices could stay lower for longer.

Strong gains in Europe and non-OECD Asia took global oil demand growth up to a four-and-a-half-year high in the third quarter of 2015, but a glut in supply resulting from a shale oil boom and OPEC cartel politics has already weighed heavily on oil prices.

“Global demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2016,” the IEA said. “Momentum in global oil demand growth, is expected to ease towards its long-term trend as recent props – sharply lower oil prices, colder than-year earlier winter weather and post-recessionary bounces in some countries – are likely to give way,” the IEA added.

Read more: OPEC to mop up on oil; non-OPEC supply falls

The IEA did not see the situation changing anytime soon. “Supportive factors that have recently fuelled consumption are expected to fade. The impact of oil’s steep price plunge on end users is unlikely to be repeated and economic conditions are forecast to remain problematic in countries such as China.”

Despite the glut in oil, supply shows no sign of ebbing with major Middle Eastern producers pumping at record levels and US stockpiles increasing. On Thursday, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US oil inventories rose for a seventh straight week (in the week ending November 6) with stockpiles increasing by 4.2 million barrels.

The OPEC factor

Confirming the current plentiful oil supply, the IEA noted that “global oil supplies breached 97 mb/d in October, as non-OPEC output recovered from lower levels the previous month.”

Non-OPEC refers to oil producers (such as the US, Canada and Russia among others) who are not part of the 12-country, Saudi Arabian-led producer group, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Read More: OPEC holds fire on forecasts as meeting looms

Despite the sharp fall in oil prices, OPEC has refused to cut production which would support prices, opting instead to keep pumping at record levels (exceeding the group’s production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day).

The rationale behind such a strategy is that the group wants to maintain its 40 percent share of the market in the face of rivals, with competition from US shale oil producers a particular bugbear.

The report comes a day after the OPEC published its own November report in which it largely maintained its forecasts for oil demand growth and supply. It maintained its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2015, predicting it will rise by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to average 92.86 mb/d – a more conservative estimate than the IEA’s forecast of 1.8 mb/d in 2015.

In 2016, OPEC saw world oil demand growth reaching 1.25 mb/d (to average 94.14 mb/d) an estimate slightly above the IEA’s forecast for 1.2 mb/d. OPEC’s report comes before the group meets in Vienna on December 4 to discuss production policy and strategy. So far, there is little sign that OPEC will change course and lower output, signaling that supply could continue to outpace demand and prices could stay lower for longer.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?