5 Minutes Read

Corporate ratings outlook worst since crisis: S&P

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Last week, S&P warned that sovereign credit worthiness had worsened sharply since the middle of 2015.

Pressure on global corporate credit ratings is at the worst level since the financial crisis, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has warned.

In a report on Tuesday, the ratings agency said that 17 percent of debt-issuing companies were on “negative credit watch” at the end of 2015, meaning they had a 50 percent chance of being downgraded within the next three months. This outnumbered the number of companies on “positive credit watch” by a ratio of three-to-one.

This meant that negative outlooks on global companies exceeded positive ones by the worst margin —11 percent — since 2008-09, S&P said.

“Meanwhile, global corporate creditworthiness has declined slightly since the onset of the crisis. The average long-term corporate credit rating has fallen by about half a notch to between ‘BB-plus’ and ‘BB’ compared with ‘BB-plus’ at end-2008,” S&P credit analyst, Terry Chan, said in the report.

“The fall in the average rating is because more new corporate ratings were in lower rating categories and due to issuer rating downgrades,” he added.

In addition, S&P said that global prospects for companies were diverging by region as a result of variance in the credit cycle and exposure to commodities.

“We are expecting mixed fortunes for European corporates, cautious about the US, somewhat negative on Asia-Pacific, and see further weakening for Latin America,” the agency said.

Last week, S&P warned that sovereign credit worthiness had worsened sharply since the middle of 2015.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Crude oil rises for first time in 8 days after US stocks fall

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 44 cents at USD 30.88 a barrel at 0144 GMT. On Tuesday, it fell 97 cents to close at USD 30.44 a barrel, after touching a low of USD 29.93, which was last seen in December 2003.

Crude futures rose on Wednesday for the first time in eight days, with US oil pulling further away from the widely watched USD 30-per-barrel level breached the previous session, after US crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week.

US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 44 cents at USD 30.88 a barrel at 0144 GMT. On Tuesday, it fell 97 cents to close at USD 30.44 a barrel, after touching a low of USD 29.93, which was last seen in December 2003.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 34 cents at USD 31.20 a barrel.

The contract fell 69 cents to settle at USD 30.86, after bottoming at USD 30.34, on Tuesday.

The USD 30 mark is both a psychological and financial threshold and, in recent days, traders have poured money into USD 30 put options for expiration in February and March.

“USD 30 may be intermediate support but I really honestly can’t say whether this is the bottom,” said Avtar Sandu, senior commodities manager at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

“We see a bounce off here … but a change in trend is not visible yet,” he said.

US crude stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week to 480.071 million, compared with analysts’ expectations for a increase of 2.5 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for WTI fell by 302,000 barrels, API said.

But the bearish outlook for oil remains after the US government forecast on Tuesday that the global glut will swell until late 2017.

Increased Iranian oil output should feed into oversupply this year with the expected lifting of Western sanctions on that country’s exports, the US Energy Information Administration said.

The agency forecast that a limited decline in US supplies next year and steady growth in global demand will help ease the glut only in the third quarter of 2017, the first decline after nearly four straight years of gains.

Still, in a reminder that geopolitical tensions could intervene to support prices, Iran is holding 10 US sailors after seizing two Navy boats that allegedly entered Iranian waters in the Gulf on Tuesday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US crude touches fresh 12-year low near $30

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Analysts at Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Societe Generale all cut their 2016 oil forecasts this week, with Standard Chartered saying oil could fall as low as $10 per barrel

Crude oil fell back to a 12-year low on concerns about oversupply and fragile demand from China on Tuesday, after briefly recovering as investors booked profits.

Analysts at Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Societe Generale all cut their 2016 oil forecasts this week, with Standard Chartered saying oil could fall as low as USD 10 per barrel.

Oil has been dragged lower by a glut, China’s weakening economy and stock market turmoil, as well as the strong dollar, which makes it more expensive for those using other currencies to buy oil.

US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded down USD 1.13 at 30.28 by 11:26 a.m. EDT (1626 GMT), touching the weakest price since December 2003.

International benchmark Brent crude recovered to USD 30.80 per barrel, down 75 cents, after falling to a low of USD 30.43, a level last seen in April 2004.

Analysts said the bounce was likely to be short lived as investors booked profits.

“Oil prices have bounced just over USD 30 per barrel, in a weak fashion that brings dead cats to mind,” Seth Kleinman, head of energy research at Citigroup said.

Trading data showed that managed short positions in WTI crude contracts, which would profit from a further fall in prices, are at a record high, indicating that many traders expect further falls.

China’s slowing economy has also weighed on oil, which has shed more than 70 percent of its value since mid-2004.

And while demand looks fragile, supply from key producers remains robust.

Iraq, the second-biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plans to export a record of around 3.63 million barrels per day from its southern oil terminals in February, trade sources said.
They cited a preliminary loading program, up 8 percent from this month.

Nigeria’s oil minister said a “couple” of OPEC members had requested an emergency meeting, adding that current market conditions support the need to hold such a gathering.

But OPEC has no plan to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the drop in oil prices before its next scheduled gathering in June, two OPEC delegates said on Tuesday. “There won’t be any meeting,” said one of the delegates from an African OPEC member country.

Oil major BP announced plans to cut at least 4,000 jobs in the face of oil’s sustained declines.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Slower, sustainable China growth good for all: Lagarde

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

“China itself has embarked on an ambitious multi-year rebalancing of its economy, toward slower and more sustainable growth. This is a positive endeavor that, in the long run, will benefit everybody,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said

Slower but more sustainable, economic growth in China will benefit the world in the long-term, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday.

“China itself has embarked on an ambitious multi-year rebalancing of its economy, toward slower and more sustainable growth. This is a positive endeavor that, in the long run, will benefit everybody,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in Paris.

“In the short run, however, this transformation generates spillover effects — through trade and lower demand for commodities, and through financial channels as well,” she added.

China’s once-startlingly fast economic growth has slowed steadily since 2010. It grew by 6.8 percent in 2015, according to estimates from the IMF, which forecasts expansion of 6.3 percent in 2016.

Lagarde spoke at a farewell event for Christian Noyer, the recently retired governor of the Bank of France and chairman of the Bank for International Settlements.

On Tuesday, Lagarde said that the slowdown in economic convergence between developed and developing countries was “a cause for concern.”

“The global community cannot afford the cost of stalled convergence, because the 85 percent (of countries that are ’emerging’ or ‘developing’) matter,” Lagarde said.

The 60-year-old added that emerging market countries needed to redirect their economies towards “added value” goods and services, rather than over-relying on commodity exports.

Lagarde noted that “the short-term nature and inherent volatility of short-term capital flower were part of the problem facing emerging markets today” and called for a “strong global financial safety net.”

The IMF head is one of the world’s most influential women. She is a trained lawyer and previously held various ministerial positions in the French government, including that of finance minister.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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‘Ridiculous’ to think yuan falls much more: Official

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

“It’s ridiculous. It’s impossible,” Han Jun, deputy director of the office of the Chinese Communist Party’s Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, said through an interpreter in response to a question about further yuan depreciation. He spoke at a briefing held at the Chinese consulate in New York.

Adding to the confusion over how China’s policymakers are handling market volatility, a Chinese official speaking in New York on Monday said it was “ridiculous” to expect the country’s currency, the yuan, to depreciate substantially more against the dollar.

“It’s ridiculous. It’s impossible,” Han Jun, deputy director of the office of the Chinese Communist Party’s Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, said through an interpreter in response to a question about further yuan depreciation. He spoke at a briefing held at the Chinese consulate in New York.

He was referring to a prediction that the yuan could depreciate much more. The currency has already weakened substantially since the beginning of 2016, but in a note on Monday Goldman Sachs analysts said the currency was headed “meaningfully” lower this year.

The dollar will fetch 7.0 yuan by year-end, Goldman Sachs forecast in the note. In the spot market, the dollar was fetching around 6.5732 yuan Tuesday.

As the mainland economy slows and regulators scramble to contain wild moves in the yuan and stocks, analysts are calling out what appears to be a ham-fisted approach to managing market volatility. That’s denting confidence in the ability of China’s policymakers to guide the opening up of the country’s financial system and the economy’s transition away from export manufacturing and toward consumption.

Last week, policy makers at the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), tinkered with the currency without providing much indication to the market about its endgame – one factor in the China market selloff that spurred a global stock rout.

On Thursday, the PBOC allowed the yuan to fall by the most in five months to the lowest fixing since 2011. But the PBOC is also suspected of intervening several times last week, including on Friday, to slow the renminbi’s decline.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the mid-point of the yuan trading band at 6.5628, barely moved from Monday’s 6.5626 fixing, which had suggested a stronger Chinese currency. China’s central bank lets the yuan spot rate rise or fall a maximum of 2 percent against the dollar, relative to the official fixing rate.

Han also told the New York audience that “the economic fundamentals for the RMB exchange did not see a big fluctuation,” dismissing concerns that there was a massive capital outflow from China. “China still maintains a huge capital inflow.” RMB refers to the renminbi, another word for the yuan.

“I think the attempt to sell short the Chinese RMB will not succeed,” he added. “People should have confidence in the RMB.”

Data on the mainland’s foreign reserves, released last week, showed the biggest annual drop on record in 2015, suggesting that the central bank has sold dollars to support the yuan.

Han said Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves had been reduced recently by some $500 billion, though he noted that China still maintained a comfortable $3.3 trillion in reserves.

Meanwhile, in China on Monday, Ma Jun, the chief economist at the PBOC’s research bureau, said that China was more focused on the yuan’s value against a basket of currency, not the dollar.

“That will be the keynote of the yuan’s exchange rate formation mechanism in the foreseeable future,” he said, according to a report by state media agency Xinhua.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US oil falls below $32 a barrel, hitting fresh 12-year low

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down USD 1.55 at USD 31.61 per barrel by 11:35 am EDT (1635 GMT), having fallen to the lowest level since December 2003. Brent crude futures were down by USD 1.76 at USD 31.79 a barrel, after falling to the lowest level since April 2004

Oil prices fell for a sixth session to a new 12-year low on Monday as slowing growth in China rattled investors’ hopes for demand this year and traders increased bets against any near-term recovery.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down USD 1.55 at USD 31.61 per barrel by 11:35 am EDT (1635 GMT), having fallen to the lowest level since December 2003. Brent crude futures were down by USD 1.76 at USD 31.79 a barrel, after falling to the lowest level since April 2004.

Speculators increased their net-short positions to a record high in the week to last Tuesday, in a sign that they are losing faith in a price rise anytime soon.

Analysts pointed to China’s slowdown, which saw a slide in the yuan and two emergency suspensions in stock trading markets last week, as the main reasons for lower oil and commodity prices.

On Monday, turbulence gripped Chinese markets once again, as blue-chip stocks fell by another 5 percent and overnight interest rates for the yuan outside of China soared to nearly 40 percent, their highest since the launch of the offshore market.

“If the first week is anything to go by we are in for a long, volatile and very exhausting year. The week started on a bad note and ended on a good one but the market response, worryingly, was the same to both — sell, sell, sell,” David Hufton, of oil brokers PVM Oil Associates, wrote in a note.

“China has torpedoed the hopes of the optimists. The third leg of the financial crises involving emerging markets that the IMF, World Bank, BIS and various messengers of doom had warned of has come into play,” he said.

Morgan Stanley said on Monday that oil prices in the $20s were possible, especially if the dollar surges more against other currencies. “A 15 percent CNY (Chinese yuan) depreciation alone could send oil into the $20s,” the bank said.

Monday’s decline adds to last week’s more than 10 percent drop in both Brent and WTI prices.

Goldman Sachs analysts, who have also said oil could hit $20 a barrel, said in a note on Friday that sustained lower prices were needed in the first quarter “so producers will move budgets down to reflect $40 a barrel oil for 2016.”

Oil prices have fallen over 70 percent since the downturn began in mid-2014 as soaring global production sees hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude produced every day without a buyer.

This imbalance looks set to increase this year as Iran brings barrels back to global markets and other countries such as Iraq and Russia pump at, or near, record levels.

“If you actually look at how low (prices) need to go to hit variable-cost production, then you need a two-handle on crude and we could well be in that world now,” Citi head of energy research Seth Kleinman said.

“Q2 looks brutal. You could have refiners coming offline, just as Middle East production comes back online, including Iran.”

Adding to overproduction is slowing demand, especially in China where growth has dropped to its lowest rate in a generation and experts see few signs of improvement for the next few years.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Billionaire Wilbur Ross: Why Alcoa stock may bounce

Struggling metals giant Alcoa is doing a “very good job” managing through the difficult world economic environment and the slump in commodities prices, billionaire vulture investor Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Monday.

While encouraged by Alcoa’s execution, Ross said he’s not a buyer of the stock yet, “because they have a couple of bad quarters to get through.”

“[But] Alcoa is adjusting to [China] because they made this big move into titanium and other different metals,” the chairman and CEO of WL Ross & Co. said in a “Squawk Box” in an interview. “That’s why they’re doing the split-up.” Alcoa plans this year to divide itself into two publicly traded entities, acknowledging that its legacy aluminum operations, and higher-value automotive and aerospace businesses were diverging and no longer compatible.

“Chances are there’s more value in the newer things that they’ve been doing than there was in the old stuff because China is exporting an awful lot of aluminum,” Ross said. “And it’s a real problem for everybody. The price is down 25 percent in a very short time period. But commodities don’t go to zero. Eventually they stabilize at something above the margin cost of production.”

Shares of Alcoa, a former Dow component, have lost nearly half their value in the past 12 months. The company is set to report quarterly results Monday afternoon.

Alcoa has won a $1.5 billion supply contract from General Electric’s aviation unit. Under the deal, Alcoa will supply advanced nickel-based superalloy, titanium and aluminum components for a broad range of GE Aviation engine programs.

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China’s currency conundrum: Cause for alarm?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Global stocks had their worst drop in more than four years, down more than 6 percent for the week.

Markets started 2016 in chaos: It was the worst start for the S&P 500and the Dow Jones industrial average ever.

Global stocks had their worst drop in more than four years, down more than 6 percent for the week.

A lot of it comes back to red alerts about China’s currency and what policymakers are trying to do.

But is it justified?

A growing chorus of economists and currency strategists suggests the weakness in the yuan may not be as scary as some believe.

A chief worry in the market is the seemingly huge scope of the move. But, in actuality, it’s relatively small by historical standards.

Brown Brothers Harriman Chief Currency Strategist Marc Chandler notes that China’s currency is actually significantly stronger over the course of the last decade, and the recent moves are a relative blip.

“The big picture here is the Chinese yuan strengthened 50 percent in its broad trade-weighted index since 2005. It has gained about 30 percent since early 2011 and has now recouped 4 percentage points,” he said.

In fact, the 1.5 percent weakening of the yuan last week paled in comparison with moves in other currencies. Australia’s dollar and New Zealand’s kiwi lost more than 4 percent each. South Africa’s rand has lost 8 percent of its value this year.

A second major concern: China is weakening its currency to help exporters and spark its economy. But, the damage and destruction of the policy on global markets and economies may make the strategy seem fruitless.

“The currency devaluation is meant to spur Chinese growth, but if the devaluation shocks European and US markets to the point that it triggers extreme risk aversion and possibly recessions there — then it is counterproductive,” Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Brean Capital, wrote in a note Sunday.

“It seems like [what] all the global stock markets and economies can digest in a short time is 4 to 5 percent [drop in the currency],” Tchir wrote.

In other words, the ripple effects caused by China’s policy moves may force Beijing to weaken less than quickly and less aggressively than planned.

“My bottom line remains that gradual, further depreciation of the renminbi is the most likely outcome, maybe for another five to 10 percent to help stimulate the economy, but nothing more dramatic,” wrote Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit, in a note on Sunday.

Another concern investors have about China’s weakening currency: It will reignite a regional currency war, but so far, China’s currency is primarily weakening against the US dollar, and Asian currencies are already weakening on their own.

“At the moment the yuan is weakening against the dollar but is remaining broadly stable relative to the PBOC’s basket [of other currencies],” said Kit Juckes, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale, referring to the People’s Bank of China.

Economists and strategist worry that China’s devaluation will spark trading partners such as South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan to intervene in order to weaken their own currencies, to boost their own export competitiveness and gain an edge against China in global trade.

China’s “actions will flame the currency war in the region,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.

However, Asian currencies have been weakening for the past two years, and the first week of 2016 was no exception.

South Korea’s won fell double the amount of the yuan last week, down more than 3 percent of the year. Most Asian currencies including the Malaysian ringgit, Taiwan’s dollar and Indonesian rupiah fell, with the notable exception of the safe haven Japanese yen.

Since Asian currencies are already weakening on their own, there may be less official central bank intervention and competitive “beggar thy neighbor” policies, which end up hurting growth and trade.

So far, all of this assumes China is in control and is trying to steer its currency sharply weaker to help boost its economy with exports. But there’s another lurking suspicion that China is in fact not in control of this currency move at all.

There’s a deep concern among investors that the yuan’s drop is being driven by the market and a flood of money being yanked out of a slowing Chinese economy.

Last week, we learned that China’s reserves fell by a record $108 billion in December, which signals the central bank is spending a lot of money to actually prop up the currency so it doesn’t collapse under the wave of outflows.

It’s a scarier prospect than the concerns about China’s growth and exports.

However, in reality, strategists say the outflows may be short-lived and the policy response could very well inspire confidence instead of desperation.

Why?

For one, “it is typical in this time of year to have a seasonal outflows. Corporations front load their hedging for the year,” according to Maher.

As for the question about confidence in policymakers’ ability to control outflows and the currency, HSBC Holdings currency strategist Daragh Maher points out that the depreciation shows China’s authorities are actually making good on promises to allow their currency to be more driven by market forces.

China has promised repeatedly to let its currency move to a more free-floating, less managed and controlled beast. It’s something investors and policymakers around the world want to see.

“I would say investors should have faith in Chinese policymakers because they’ve been fairly consistent,” Maher said.

Of course, if the reserves continue to plummet and outflows pick up, there will be bigger concerns about the impact. For now, Maher and others are taking the moves as a signal that China is increasingly letting its currency be dictated by the market.

The bottom line: China’s currency remains an enigma. So when you have sharp reversals of multiyear trends like we’ve seen, investors are guessing and speculating and stressing about why it’s happening, what is says about the economy and what it means for others.

But so far, there’s plenty of reasons to remain calm.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Cameron aims to offer Britons in-out vote on EU this summer

David Cameron is confident he can reach a deal on the UK’s terms of membership in the EU next month, paving the way for a vote this summer on whether Britain will sever its four-decade relationship with the bloc.

The prime minister said that there was a “massive prize for Britain” if it could renegotiate membership, adding that he felt the “best answer” was for the UK to remain part of a reformed EU.

His comments came as a survey revealed that the majority of leaders at Britain’s biggest companies thought that leaving Europe would not damage their prospects, suggesting that the impact of a Brexit could be less negative for business than In campaigners had suggested.

While most of the British business leaders interviewed in annual research by Ipsos Mori in conjunction with the FT said that walking away from the bloc would be negative for the UK economy as a whole, 61 percent were confident that their individual operations would not suffer.

Many of the chairmen, chief executives and other senior managers from more than 100 big British companies also said that they wanted to unravel the close political ties between the UK and Europe and return to membership of a pure trading bloc.

Although more than half of the leaders said that the greatest attraction of EU membership was recruiting staff from Europe without requiring visas, three-quarters said that Brexit would not affect their company’s ability to attract overseas talent.

Asked by the BBC whether he could conclude a deal at the European Council meeting in Brussels next month, opening up the possibility of a summer vote, Mr Cameron said: “I would like to see a deal in February and a referendum that will follow.”

Public opinion polls still suggest that British voters will opt to remain in the EU, with the average of the six latest polls revealing that 55 percent would vote to stay in the bloc, according to the poll of polls on the What UK Thinks website.

The biggest stumbling blocks for Mr Cameron over renegotiating the terms of Britain’s EU membership are social security benefits and freedom of movement.

In his letter last year to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, Mr Cameron said that he wanted EU migrants to become eligible for certain in-work benefits only after they had worked in the UK for four years. Some member states have suggested that this would be illegal and discriminatory.

The prime minister said on Sunday that his proposal remained “on the table until I see something that is equally powerful and meaningful”.

Mr Cameron, who has said he will not serve a third term as prime minister, insisted on Sunday that he would stay in place for the remainder of parliament if the UK voted to leave.

He recently said that Eurosceptic ministers could campaign for the UK to leave the EU, in response to rising pressure from cabinet rightwingers. Ministers would be able to take “a different personal position” to the official government line during the Brexit referendum campaign “while remaining part of the government”, he said.

On Sunday, the prime minister said that the government was “not going to be neutral” on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU. After the renegotiation concluded, the cabinet would decide upon a formal position and reach a “clear recommendation”, Mr Cameron said. However, Eurosceptics would be able to campaign against that position.

China shares tumble in late trade as Asia markets sell off

Chinese markets extended an already rough start to the year Monday, losing further ground after another sell-off in late afternoon trade that sent mainland indexes down more than 5 percent.

The Shanghai Composite tumbled 168 points, or 5.29 percent, to 3,017.99, while the Shenzhen Composite plunged 130.61 points, or 6.6 percent, to close at 1,848. In afternoon trade, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 2.3 percent, slipping below the 20,000 threshold for the first time since June 2013.

The rest of Asia also closed down, with Australia’s main ASX 200 index continued its downward slide, ending 58.63 points, or 1.17 percent, lower at 4,932.20. The energy, materials and financials sectors weighed, with those indexes down 1.8, 2.95, and 1.27 percent respectively.

In South Korea, the Kospi shed 22.78 points, 1.19 percent, to close at 1,894.84 on Monday’s session, with commodities sectors seeing early losses.

Mainland brokerages suffered steep losses, with shares down as much as 9 percent at market close. Citic Securities’ mainland-listed shares were off 7.01 percent, while its Hong Kong-listed ones fell 5.53 percent. Airlines stocks on the mainland traded mixed, between up 3.72 and down 1.54 percent. Airlines tend to see an earnings boost when oil prices fall.

Beijing guides the yuan higher

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) guided the yuan higher by setting the mid-point fix at 6.5626 against the dollar. On Friday, the midpoint was fixed at 6.5636. The yuan traded at 6.5818 against the dollar.

The yuan-based Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rates (Hibor) spiked to over 13 percent from 4 percent Friday as offshore yuan volume declined.

Last week, the Shanghai Composite lost all of its 2015 gains, falling by 9.97 percent in just five days. Trading in Chinese markets was halted twice last week by circuit breakers – a market-calming regulatory tool – that were only implemented in the country at the start of the week.

The circuit breakers were designed to trigger a 15-minute trading halt if the CSI 300 index fell 5 percent. If that index moved by 7 percent, trade was halted for the rest of the session. By the end of the week, China suspended its circuit breakers, but investors remained wary over the country’s ability to handle financial turmoil.

Experts said the ongoing crisis in Asia’s largest economy would have bigger, broader implications about the region’s economic prospects.

Taimur Baig, chief economist for Asia at Deutsche Bank Research, said in a note on Friday, “The key risk is China, where fears of continued economic slide are causing capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation, asset market selloff, and policy dilemmas.”

Baig noted that while this might not halt economic growth in the mainland, with large parts of the economy operating independently of the country’s stock markets, it would hurt sentiment — not just in China, but also in rest of Asia, causing possible deflation, credit crunches and policy challenges.

Aussie drop a double-edged sword

The Australian dollar fell below 70 US cents again, trading at USD 0.6969.

Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia and New Zealand at HSBC, said in a note that this was the third time since the global financial crisis that the Aussie had fallen below 70 US cents.

But a weaker Aussie was not necessarily negative for Australia’s economy, Bloxham said, because it could help to offset the lower commodity prices that were hitting local income growth and speed up the economy’s rebalancing toward non-mining sectors.

Commodities remain a concern

Energy plays in Asia traded in the red, weighed by further declines in oil prices. US crude futures were down 2.02 percent at USD 32.49 a barrel, after falling 10.47 percent in the previous week. Globally traded Brent futures were down 2.18 percent at USD 32.80 a barrel; last week, Brent futures shed 10 percent.

Australian oil stocks Santos, Oil Search and Woodside Petroleum closed down between 0.76 and 5.03 percent.

In China, mainland oil stocks were down between 2.31 and 3.63 percent, while Hong Kong-traded CNOOC, Petrochina, and Sinopec shares had losses of between 2.97 and 4.27 percent.

Resource stocks were also down, pressured by lower commodity prices.

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, Australia’s two biggest miners, shed 3.34 and 4.89 percent respectively, while iron ore producer Fortescue saw losses of 4.93 percent. Iron ore prices were down at USD 41.50 a tonne a tonne Friday, for a total 3 percent decline for the week after rallying for three weeks.

Samsung drops on missed targets

Elsewhere, in South Korea, shares of heavyweight Samsung Electronics were down 1.62 percent after the company missed its profit targets for the fourth quarter of 2015 last week. Other blue chip stocks such as SK Hynix also traded lower.

Shares of Doosan were down 0.49 percent after the company said its subsidiary sold 305 billion won (USD 252.71 million) worth of shares in fighter jet manufacturer Korean Aerospace Industries, according to reports.

Shares of Korean Aerospace Industries closed down 4.42 percent.

On Wall Street last week

In the US, major indexes closed the first trading week of the year in the red as global economic concerns outweighed an above-expectation jobs number for December.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.1 percent for the week, closing at 16,346.45. The S&P 500 shed 5.96 percent for the week, down at 1,922.03 while the Nasdaq Composite was down 7 percent at 4,270.78.

In Japan, the market will be closed for a public holiday.