Cut your emerging markets exposure by a third: Goldman

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Goldman Sachs has a clear warning for investors: Emerging markets will continue to disappoint.

In a December report, the bank’s investment management division predicted “the strong possibility of significant underperformance and heightened volatility over the next five to 10 years.”

The client note, titled “Emerging Markets: As the Tide Goes Out,” recommended that investors with a “moderate” tolerance for risk reduce their exposure by one-third, from 9 percent to 6 percent of overall portfolios.

It’s not time to increase portfolios in those markets, even though it may seem attractive because investments appear to be cheap, the report warned.

Read more: Bulls of Rio: JPMorgan Brazil fund feeling upbeat

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 8.4 percent this year as of Dec. 20. It was down more than 17 percent in late June but has recovered slightly.

Goldman Sachs used the 59-page report to argue that growth in emerging markets from 2003 to 2007 was a result of specific economic circumstances that aren’t likely to be repeated; the political and economic reforms needed to improve growth are too painful to undertake.

There has also been a “seismic shift” in investor sentiment on emerging markets for the worse. “The returns were not as attractive as expected, the economic growth rates were not as sustainable as imagined, and the countries were not as stable as believed,” the report said.

Common themes in Goldman’s pessimism on countries like China, Brazil and Russia include overinvolvement of governments in their economies, increasing reliance on commodities and unfavorable demographic trends.

Read more: Place your bets: China or Japan?

Goldman noted that China, for example, has five main problems: “severely imbalanced growth, a weakening demographic profile, financial repression that has distorted allocation of capital, growing pollution that has endangered the health of its population, and an antiquated household registration system known as ‘hukou’ that has hampered access to education and social services.”

In Brazil, Goldman said, the government’s large economic role is the most important reason for underperformance. That has created high interest rates, corporate strategy dictated by the government—often because of direct ownership—and high taxes.

Goldman expects “low single-digit” returns for emerging market local debt in 2014 with a range of gains and losses of about 10 percent. For stocks, the bank sees “high single-digit” returns with a range of gains or losses of about 20 percent.

—By CNBC’s Lawrence Delevingne. Follow him on Twitter @ldelevingne.

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Will Asia’s gold bugs come to the metal’s rescue?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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While Asian consumers have been an important force in the gold market, helping to offset the blow from heavy bullion-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) selling this year, they may not rescue the precious metal from its steep drop this time around, say analysts.

Gold prices fell 2 percent on Thursday, breaking through the key psychological level of USD 1,200 an ounce as speculation about the Federal Reserve scaling back stimulus further heightened deflation fears. Spot gold was last quoted up 0.3 percent at USD 1,193 in the Asian trading session.

(Read more: Fed taper: A nail in gold’s coffin?)

 “We have seen gold prices being supported at current levels previously, and normally we would have thought that would be the continuing story with emerging market demand lapping up the excess supply. But what is throwing a spanner in the works is India,” Mike Harrowell, senior resources research analyst at BBY told CNBC on Friday.

India, one of the world’s top consumers of gold, has imposed a wide range of restrictions to curb bullion imports in an effort to control the current account deficit.

(Read more: India slaps on more gold duties to defend rupee)

Earlier this year, the government hiked the import duty on gold to a record 10 percent and tied bullion imports to a fixed level of exports via the 80:20 rule. This rule stipulates that 20 percent of all gold imported must be exported before further imports can be made.

 The measures have been effective in suppressing demand, with gold consumption slumping 32 percent to 148 tons in the third quarter, according to the World Gold Council.

While gold demand out of China and other emerging markets in the region remain intact, this is unlikely to help drive prices higher, said analysts.

“Those sorts of buyers tend to be value [driven] and tend not to push the price very hard,” said Harrowell.

Ric Spooner, Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets says the key question for gold is when ETF selling will finish.

(Read more: Goldman predicts steep losses for gold in 2014)

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings fell 0.48 percent to 808.72 tonnes on Thursday from 812.62 tonnes on Wednesday.

“Over the next 12-18 months, – it’s hard to make a case for gold – we’ve got low inflation and potentially a rising U.S. dollar in the background of the Federal Reserve unwinding its monetary stimulus,” said Spooner, who adds that a drop below USD 1,180 would be a “bearish development” for the precious metal.

 “But what plays at the back of my mind is that it remains to be seen whether the world will exit from the current round of major central bank stimulus without inflationary pressure – that makes a case for potentially owning gold, so we may find a base around USD 1,150-USD 2,000,” he added.

According to Frank McGhee, head precious metals dealer with Integrated Brokerage Services, the significant rotation out of the metal into U.S. equities is likely to going to continue through next year and drag prices lower.

(Read more: Gold is just the tip of the ‘Taper Tantrum’)

He forecasts the precious metal will trade around USD 900 by mid-2014 – marking a 24 percent decline from current levels.

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What drives bull’s next leg?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Sure we’ve had a big run,” Jim Cramer said. “But I think there are places where you can come right in and buy.”

The Mad Money sees plenty of opportunity in five sectors of the market. They are banks, housing, retail, airlines and oil.

“Of course on any given day they could trade lower, but I think all these sectors present significant opportunity,” Cramer explained.

Following are Cramer’s insights for each sector.

 Banks

“If the Fed is to be taken at face value, there will be no increase in what the banks have to pay you on your CDs, but they can invest your deposit dollars in Treasurys that make them much more money,” Cramer said.

In other words, banks make more money in a rising rate environment. That’s bullish. However, Cramer sees other catalysts too.

With the economy improving, Cramer expects new businesses will begin to form – businesses that will turn to banks for loans. And he feels most banks are in excellent financial shape due to stricter regulations therefore, Cramer believes “banks will return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks.”

Although there are many ways to leverage the theme, Cramer is quite bullish on Bank of America. “Technicians take note, Bank of America’s chart is a Picasso in the waiting,” he said

Housing

In the housing sector, Cramer thinks companies are about to command more aggressive price-to-earnings multiples.

“Recently, Lennar told a compelling story that said demand had stayed pretty consistent, but supply has fallen behind. That means there’s an imbalance that favors the homebulders,” Cramer explained.

That kind of imbalance warrants premium.

“Given that Lennar has about USD 2.50 in earnings power and this company has growth characteristics and margin improvement possibilities that are better than the average stock in the S&P 500, it’s not a stretch to see it headed to the USD 40s, a nice gain from the USD 37 perch where it now finds itself. Gunslingers might want to go for DR Horton or Pulte or even lumber company Weyerhaeuser, which is also well behind the market.”

Retail

“This sector has done nothing for several months now, as everyone’s been so worried about the holiday season. I say enough already. Time to circle back to Macy’s, GameStop and Best Buy,” Cramer said.

After talking with CEOs Manny Chirico and Frank Blake on Mad Money, Cramer is also bullish on VF Corp and Home Depot. “I think both should have strong holiday seasons.”

Essentially, Cramer believes that retailers that execute well and understand their customers will continue to thrive.

 Oil

“The market has pretty much collectively decided that, after Warren Buffett bought Exxon, it’s the only oil worth owning. The market’s also made a judgment that the domestic oils have had their day and it’s time to move on,” Cramer noted. “I think that’s ridiculous.”

With signs suggesting that the economy is coming back, Cramer expects to see the demand for oil and other kinds of energy increase not decline.

Although there are many ways to leverage the trend, some of Cramer’s favorite energy plays include Conoco, EOG, Noble, Schlumberger and National Oilwell Varco.

Airlines

“I think you can easily buy the airlines, which have stalled out,” Cramer said.

The “Mad Money” host suspects airlines are becoming more profitable and thinks the sector is investable now as a bet on better than expected earnings in the weeks ahead.

And if you’re looking for a single stock ideas, “We now have the completion of the American Airlines-US Airways deal and the stock’s only at USD 26, which I think is radically undervalued based on next year’s prospects,” Cramer said.

Questions for Cramer? madmoney@cnbc.com

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer
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Don’t expect big things from Washington in 2014

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Think about 2014 as a year of diminished D.C. expectations—and then you’ll see the pattern in my predictions for the next 12 months.

Start with the budget, where Senate Democrats and House Republicans have struck a modest deal replacing part of the budget sequester with savings they like better.

Look for them in early 2014 to follow up with spending bills that throw scraps to defense and domestic priorities Congress has neglected—but make little fundamental change.

Lawmakers will avoid both a government shutdown and another debt crisis. Been there, already burned by that.

More predictions: 4 ways to make money off Washington next year

The Obama administration will grind along to the 2014 open enrollment deadline of March 31 for those troubled new health care exchanges that Americans without insurance must buy from.

 Even if enrollment comes up short of the 7 million person goal, White House allies will recruit enough young people to the system to keep the exchanges financially viable for 2015. Obamacare will still have health problems, but it’ll get the chance to survive and grow.

More predictions: Tired of Obamacare? More of the same in 2014

By the fall, voters will go to the polls for another round of mid-term elections.

Without much faith in either party, they’ll start no revolutions this time. Republicans will hold their House majority, Democrats theirs in the Senate.

More predictions: Get ready—Here comes the REAL economy

And then the status quo will limp along toward the 2016 election of President Barack Obama’s successor.

—By CNBC’s John Harwood. Follow him on Twitter @JohnJHarwood.

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Could this be the next big social networking site?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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If you haven’t heard of it yet, you may need to listen in a little more closely as social media site Whisper.sh has exploded in the 18 months since its inception, now boasting three billion pageviews a month.

The site allows users to post ‘secrets’ or thoughts anonymously, through the use of pictures with bold eye-catching quotes at the top, much like internet ‘memes’ — which are described as units for carrying cultural symbols or ideas that virally spread across the internet.

The sentiment on Whisper is serious and thought provoking, and the content is often the kind of thing individuals would not want to shout about in public. The look is similar to the long-running PostSecret website, but Whisper has features which make it more of a social network.

(Read More: Can Japan`s answer to WhatsApp take on the world?)

“That moment in the locker room when all your team mates are making fun of gays and you`re just sitting there like ‘glad you don`t know about me'” one reads. Another reads: “I am nervous that our honeymoon will suck since we are both virgins.”

Others are more lighthearted: “I still pick my nose on occasion. Sometimes tissues just don’t cut it.”

Users tend to use the mobile app for an average of 20 minutes a day, checking content between 8 and 10 times a day, and are aged between 17 and 28, and the majority are female (70 percent), according to media reports.

(Read More: Dating in China to heat up? Tinder’s on the way)

Jeremy Liew of Lightspeed Venture Partners – the first investor in popular photo messaging application Snapchat, which was reported to have turned down a $3 billion offer from Facebook – told CNBC he was excited about Whisper’s incredible growth. Liew invested $3 million in Whisper in April this year.

“Three billion pageviews a month is a shockingly big number for a company only 18 months old,” Liew told CNBC.

Facebook, arguably one of the first hugely successful social networking sites, has reported over one trillion page views per month, by contrast. It has 1.19 billion active users, with 728 million of these active every day.

Co-founder of Whisper Michael Heyward told technology website TechCrunch earlier this year that the site was designed to contrast with the identity focused social networks.

(Read More: Facebook marketing? Don’t bother, says new report)

Where Whisper differs from Facebook, Twitterand Pinterest, however, is that while these sites encourage people to post things they are proud of, like wedding pictures and holiday snaps, Whisper is where users go to spill the secrets they would normally only tell to a close friend. Other users can post supportive comments, and users can respond to one another.

“As is always the case with these companies the most important thing to look at is: are they delighting users? And the best way to tell is how engaged are they? How often are they using a product? How many times a day are they opening it and how many days per month are they opening it,” said Liew.

“Both with Snapchat and with Whisper, we`ve seen extraordinary engagement,” he added.

Users can download the app for free but have to pay to send messages to other users.

– By CNBC`s Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter @hollidaykatie

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Is inflation the ‘hiding lion in the grass’?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Inflation may not be a concern for the Federal Reserve right now but it could be the “lion in the grass” that takes the central bank by surprise, former Fed governor Robert Heller told CNBC Thursday.

The US central bank on Wednesday started a long-awaited tapering of its asset-purchase program. It said it would cut its monthly stimulus by USD 10 billion to USD 75 billion from January and that interest rates would remain low for some time.

(Read more: Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month)

Asked about whether inflation could be a possible risk to the outlook for monetary policy, Heller told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box”: “I think you have it right there, it’s the lion in the grass, it’s hiding there.”

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2 percent in November from a year earlier. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target, although it follows a gauge that tends to run a bit below the official CPI.

(Read more: US consumers see flat prices in November)

And the latest Fed statement suggests too-low inflation is more of a concern than high inflation right now. “The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance,” Wednesday’s statement read.

Still, the potential for an upside surprise in inflation should not be underestimated, Heller said.

“The potential for inflation is huge. We have huge excess reserves in the banking system and once the banking system feels confident in the economy and banks start lending again, that could ignite inflation quite quickly,” Heller added.

“All we need is a little bit more tightness in the labor market, a couple of strikes and here we go. So it is a danger that is ever present,” he said.

(Read more: Now that the Fed’s out of the way, it’s Santa’s turn)

Tai Hui, chief Asia Pacific strategist at JP Morgan Funds, agreed that inflation could become more of a risk if banks start to ramp up lending, fueling economic activity.

“If you look at the amount of liquidity pumped into the economy by the Fed and other central banks, this has not really been utilized by banks,” he told CNBC.

“This is crucial because if the banks start to lend out more aggressively we could see inflation risks return to the fore, but at the moment banks are still quite conservative in lending and that should help keep inflation at bay in the near term,” he added.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Fed begins ‘taper-lite’, trims bond-buying by $10bn

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it would start to taper its aggressive bond-buying program to USD 75 billion a month beginning in January, propelling the market to a record close.

The FOMC also announced it would lower its monthly long-term Treasury bond purchases to USD 40 billion and mortgage-backed securities to USD 35 billion a month, both reductions of USD 5 billion.

(Read more: Here’s what changed in new Fed statement)

“I think it logically, this is what they had to do,” said David Kelly, managing director at JPMorgan Funds. “If you look at what’s happened this year, the unemployment rate has come down to 7 percent. We’ve got housing starts over a million units. We got the S&P 500 up 25 percent. In this economy, you have to pull back from the most extreme monetary policy in a century. So I think it’s overdue. I’m glad to see it.”

Nine of the voting members of the FOMC supported the decision to start tapering. Only Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren dissented, noting the elevated unemployment rate and inflation below the 2-percent target.

Bernanke said in his final news conference as Fed Chairman that the recovery remains “far from complete,” but if jobs gains continue as expected, the bond purchases would likely continue to be cut at a “measured” pace throughout next year.

Bernanke said he consulted closely on the decision with incoming Fed chief Janet Yellen.

“She fully supports what we did today,” Bernanke said.

(Read more: Fmr. Fed Governor Mishkin: Fed got it right this time)

Markets had first expected tapering to begin in September, and then began to shift their focus to December—or even later.

Ken Volpert, principal at Vanguard, predicted the Fed will taper by USD 10 billion.

“What we’re going to see in 2014 is reasonably good growth,” he said. “We don’t have the fiscal headwinds, or the fiscal drag as much in 2014, and we do have, you know, the deleveraging cycle, the consumer is getting towards the end. And so we are going to see some reasonably good growth, and I think the Fed is looking at that as well.”

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist for Nuveen Asset Management, called it “good news for equities.”

“The Fed is finally signifying to us the economy is doing better,” he said. “2014, the economy will be a bit stronger, a bit broader and this is just confirmation of it.”

Major averages shot higher following the announcement, with the Dow skyrocketing nearly 300 points. Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs.

In updated quarterly forecasts, the central bank pared back its expectations for both inflation and unemployment over the next few years, acknowledging the jobless rate had fallen faster than expected. It now sees it reaching a range of 6.3 percent to 6.6 percent by the end of 2014, from a previous prediction of 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent.

Tangible job growth has been at a focus of the central bank’s policymakers. In November, U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 203,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dipping to 7 percent. The Fed has previously said it is looking for a 6.5-percent unemployment and 2.5 percent inflation rate before implementing an exit strategy from its USD 85-billion-a-month bond-buying program, also known as quantitative easing.

After nearly eight years, Ben Bernanke is stepping down as Fed chairman early next year. His designated successor, Vice Chair Janet Yellen, faces Senate confirmation this week. Yellen is known to lean dovish in her stance—favoring easy policy like Bernanke—which would likely bode well with markets.

(Read more: Fed-inflated stocks a ‘hall of mirrors’: Jim Grant)

This is the third round of QE since the financial crisis of 2008, and many investors believe that QE is the primary reason stocks have rallied since bottoming in March 2009.

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3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

A bullish new year for all? Fund managers think so

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Investors are counting down to the new year with a lot of bullish cheer for the global economy, corporate profits and equities – especially in Europe and Japan, according to a fund manager survey from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

A net 71 percent of fund managers expect the global economy will strengthen next year, up from November`s 67 percent and far stronger than 40 percent a year ago, the survey found.

(Read more: Six reasons why 2014 is the year the economy clicks )

Similarly, 41 percent expect global corporate profits are set to rise in 2014, up from just 11 percent a year ago.

All that bullishness has translated into a lot of love for equities, with a net 54 percent of managers overweight on the asset, up from November`s 52 percent, a standard deviation above the 10-year average, the survey found.

Eurozone equities may be the biggest beneficiaries, with a net 83 percent of fund managers expecting stronger growth on the continent and a net 43 percent overweight, making it the most preferred equity market for the fourth month running.

It`s a sharp about-face from a year ago, when just 2 percent expected stronger economic growth and just 7 percent were overweight the region`s equities.

(Read more: Why 2014 could be a `record year` for stock listings )

But it isn`t clear how long the love affair may last, with BofA-ML saying it is concerned the region may be flashing an “over-owned” signal. To be sure, it isn`t calling a peak just yet.

“While a net 15 percent still see Europe as cheap versus U.S. stocks, Europe is no longer the same deep value call it was at the start of the year,” BofA-ML said in a note. “With positioning and valuation gaps closed and sentiment high, European indices are likely due a pause.”

Japan equities are also landing under fund managers` Christmas trees, with the net overweight at 34 percent, the highest since May 2006, with the consensus call for a long Nikkei-short yen trade heading into the new year, the survey found.

(Read more: Soviet-style scare? Extreme predictions for 2014 )

Equities in the U.S. haven`t really lost popularity either, with a net 7 percent overweight, unchanged from a month earlier.

While more than 20 percent of fund managers view a long call on the SandP 500 (INDEX: .SPX) as one of the most crowded trades, “positioning is far from stretched at current levels,” BofA-ML said.

However, emerging markets didn`t get a party invite, with a net 10 percent underweight the segment`s equities, the survey found.

(Read more: Goldman: Earnings set for growth in 2014, but correction looming )

Expectations the US dollar (New York Board of Trade (Futures): =USD) will appreciate and a strong aversion to commodity, energy and materials stocks are the main factors keeping it the only regional equity underweight, BofA-ML said.

But it noted, fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash globally at around 4.5 percent of assets.

“Investor refusal to reduce cash balances should prevent any meaningful market correction,” it said.

Other surveys also find a bullish view ahead. Charles Schwab`s most recent Trading Services Sentiment Survey found only 10 percent of traders are taking a bearish view for the next three to six months, the lowest since the survey began in February 2008. However, one in three surveyed also increased their allocation to cash, suggesting the bullish sentiment hasn`t shifted into trading behavior yet, the survey said.

(Read more: Goldman: How Europe outperforms in 2014 )

-By CNBC.Com`s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter
@LeslieShaffer1
Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

China crushes India in BRICS university ranking

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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China has dominated a ranking of the top BRICS universities, with 40 mainland institutions making it into the top 100, compared with just 16 for economic rival India.

Tsinghua University, referred to as “China’s MIT [Massachusetts Institute of Technology],”grabbed first place, according to a ranking by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), which is based on eight key indicators including faculty-to-student ratio, the number of staff members holding a PhD, and reputation among employers.

The Beijing-based institution produces more state leaders and senior officials than any other mainland university, according to local media, including the current and former presidents Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao.

Read more: Chinese students are harder workers: Lang Lang

 “It is not surprising that China leads the pack, given the size of its economy and population and the massive resources it has been putting into higher education. This BRICS ranking points to a sharp contrast between Indian and Chinese achievement in higher education,” said Zoya Zaitseva, project director for QS University Rankings.

No Indian university featured in the top 10, with the highest ranked university – Indian Institute of Technology – taking the 13th spot.

“Despite being only marginally smaller in population, India has only 16 institutions listed here, less than half China’s haul. While India has world-class institutions in science and technology, its comprehensive universities are not as strong in an international context,” Zaitseva added.

Read more: The top 10 universities for billionaire alumni

Interestingly, while Tsinghua is ranked at the top of the BRIC table, it placed 48th in QS’ latest world university rankings – a sign that China and its emerging market peers have a way to go in terms in global academia.

Peking University (China), Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia), Fudan University (China), Nanjing University (China) claimed second through fifth place, in ascending order.

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China), University of Science and Technology of China (China), Universidade de São Paulo (Brazil), Zhejiang University (China) and Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Brazil) ranked sixth to tenth place.

Read more: In China, any US degree just won’t do

Overall, Russian, Brazilian and South African universities claimed 19, 17 and 8 spots, respectively in the top 100.

“Russia performs well in this ranking and demonstrates great progress as a part of its ambition to have five universities in the global top 100 by 2020. There are ambitious plans to expand the number of Brazilian students studying abroad; over time, the result could be a more internationally-integrated Brazilian university system,” said Ben Sowter, head of research at QS.

“South Africa’s university system is fast-changing, with new institutions being launched and old ones reformed; its strengths include strong international connections as well as productive and well-regarded researchers. Its universities are consistently good at attracting international students and staff, in line perhaps with its mission of African leadership in higher education,” Sowter added.

—By CNBC’s  Ansuya Harjani; Follow her on Twitter: @Ansuya_H

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow