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Advisors brace for the $30 trillion ‘great wealth transfer’

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Over the next several decades, the biggest and wealthiest generation in US history will transfer roughly USD 30 trillion in assets to their Gen X and millennial children, and if studies are accurate, most of those children will promptly fire their parents’ advisors.

No issue looms larger for the financial advice industry than demographics and the aging of the baby boomers.

 Over the next several decades, the biggest and wealthiest generation in US history will transfer roughly USD 30 trillion in assets to their Gen X and millennial children, and if studies are accurate, most of those children will promptly fire their parents’ advisors.

“Studies regularly show that when wealth passes to another generation, in the majority of cases, the heirs change financial advisors,” said Gauthier Vincent, head of Deloitte’s US Wealth Management practice. “The relationship between assets, asset owners and financial advisors is unraveling before our eyes.”

How advisory firms deal with this long-term trend will determine which succeed in the future and which falter. As the ‘great wealth transfer’ accelerates — the oldest boomers are now 70 years old — the strengths of some business models will become more apparent and the weaknesses of others more glaring.

“This is a fascinating time from a competitive perspective,” said Vincent. “There’s going to be winners and losers, and market shares will shift.”

He added, “This industry will be very fluid in the next decade.”

For an industry that has largely earned its bread serving affluent clients — and avoiding smaller, unprofitable ones — it’s been easy to put addressing this huge but slowly unfolding issue on hold.

“It’s a question of revenue today versus revenue tomorrow,” said Kendra Thompson, North American lead at Accenture Wealth Management Services. “Incumbent players are not by nature nimble and willing to take risk.”

There’s good reason for the inertia. Next-generation clients with fewer assets may be the future of the industry — every advisor acknowledges the fact — but they won’t pay the bills today. Trying to attract and engage them costs money; it takes a lot of people and demands new technologies and service models.

“Is it the right thing to do?” asked Peter Mallouk, CEO of registered investment advisor Creative Planning. “Yes — but you have to be willing to not be profitable with the mass affluent.”

He added: “The majority of the industry is not designed to think generationally. Economically, it’s not worth it.”

Mallouk and his firm, one of the largest and fastest-growing RIAs in the country, have a leg up on most advisors. Their clients are generally high in net worth, they successfully recruit young advisors to the firm, and they offer the high-touch, full-service financial-planning relationships that are most likely to retain assets through generations.

Mallouk said involving the children of clients in financial-planning discussions is the norm at his firm. “There’s a perception in the industry that to be successful, you can only work with people who have at least USD 1 million in assets,” he said. “But if you don’t work with the next generation, someone else will.”

Daisy Medici, managing director of governance and education at GenSpring Family Offices, focuses on engaging all family members of the firm’s ultrahigh-net-worth clients. The parents in those families expect it, and working with next-gen clients is an essential part of what a family office does.

“We attract families that worry about the impact of wealth on the next generations,” said Medici. “They come to us because we’re known for bringing multiple generations of families to the table.”

There are no guarantees, but if advisors can bring young family members to the table now, those children are more likely to stick with their parents’ advisors down the road when they inherit assets. The trick is building the business model to do that for the future without bankrupting the firm in the present.

“Incumbent advisors have to figure out how to scale high-net-worth advisory services for other customer segments,” said Accenture’s Thompson. She said that after a long period of denial, firms across the industry are finally taking steps to do that.

The catalyst is — you guessed it — the robo-advisors, or more accurately, the fintech digital experience that is increasingly being demanded by all customer segments.

“Every firm we work with is now moving in the direction of digitally led wealth management,” said Thompson. “We’ve come through a very stressful time where there has been widespread resistance to the idea of digital disruption in this industry and executive teams have been frozen.

“In the last 18 months, it’s turned like a light switch,” she added.

Indeed, firms in all corners of the industry — from banks and wire-house brokerages to asset managers and even insurance companies — have seen the light. They are either building out digital-advice platforms, as Charles Schwab and Vanguard have done, buying them like BlackRock and Northwest Mutual Insurance did, or partnering with online advisors, as UBS recently did with SigFig. The RIAs, most of whom can’t make the investments, are accessing the fintech tools through custodians such as Schwab, Fidelity and TD Ameritrade.

They are doing it because investors are demanding it. “In every wealth tier of the market, more and more people are behaving like next-generation investors,” said Deloitte’s Vincent.

However, that doesn’t mean the industry will shift to low-cost automated advice for everyone. Vincent said that surveys consistently show younger investors want the self-directed robo-experience, but they also want access to human advisors.

Furthermore, they want to move seamlessly between different service models and see more clearly what they’re paying for. “The model doesn’t exist yet, but most firms are working on it,” said Vincent.

He calls it a hybrid model, where human advisors use digital tools to help them give customers what they want when they want it. That improves advisors’ service to existing clients and makes them more attractive to future next-gen clients. “It’s true that it’s not economical to spend a lot of time with small accounts, but this helps create a pipeline of future clients,” said Vincent.

With the great wealth transfer in its earliest stages, advisors will need it.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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All the world loves bonds, but maybe for the wrong reason

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

“The central banks are Hoovering up all of these bonds. But yet it hasn’t promoted growth or inflation,” said George Goncalves, head of rates strategy at Nomura.

Sovereign bonds are pricier than ever, yet the world can’t seem to get enough.

The rush into bonds has been due to a number of factors, including worries about global economic growth and most recently fears the UK could disrupt financial markets and the economy if it votes next week to leave the European Union. But the overriding forces behind the buying are the world’s central banks as well as the unease caused by the world’s central banks.

“The central banks are Hoovering up all of these bonds. But yet it hasn’t promoted growth or inflation,” said George Goncalves, head of rates strategy at Nomura. “Maybe these policies are not effective. That new theme, which has been growing throughout 2016, is: ‘Those guys can’t generate growth and help the world economy. I have to buy bonds.'”

As prices rise for government bonds, yields fall, and this week some yields, like German 10-year bonds and Swiss 30-year bonds, went negative for the first time ever. Drawn to these low yields like a magnet, the US 10-year fell to a low Thursday morning of 1.51 percent, close to its all-time low near 1.39 in July 2012. It rebounded as bonds sold off later in the day to 1.57 percent.

“They thought they’d be easing us into buying other things by providing liquidity. Instead, people put money to work to fixed income and it created a negative feedback loop. Basically, they thought it was going to be virtuous and you’d see growth and more lending, and instead they’re making people buy the same thing they’re buying,” said Goncalves.

On Friday, markets will be watching housing starts in the US at 8:30 a.m. but will more so be monitoring developments in foreign markets. The S&P 500 reversed course Thursday and ended higher after UK sterling rose and gold erased much of its gains. The move coincided with news that Britain temporarily suspended campaigning on the Brexit vote after a member of Parliament was shot and killed. The cause of the shooting was unclear, but there was speculation the act could encourage more voters to choose to remain in the EU.

Some of the tension in markets could end if the Brexit vote to leave Europe fails June 23, as Thursday’s market reaction showed.

“There is a little bit of psychology here, I think, that’s at work. You don’t want to miss a rally, but you also don’t want to get hurt if there is an adverse outcome. It does make it very, very tricky, but what it really means is today in portfolios, people are building high levels of cash because they’re reducing risk, but what does it mean if it’s a risk-on event after the 23rd? There is a lot of cash on the sidelines that needs to be put to work and it could chase the market higher,” said Jim Caron, fixed income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “There’s also a significant amount of money that’s on the sidelines right now that will act as a stabilizer.”

If the US 10-year does fall through its all-time intraday low 1.36 percent, set in July 2012, most strategists don’t have a forecast that low, and some say it could keep on falling. They do say if the British vote fails to support a separation from the EU, yields could adjust upward. But because the current move lower has been based on relative value, charting levels with traditional technical analysis is not as useful.

“What recent history has shown us is you cannot definitively say there’s a level in rates that cannot be breached,” said Goncalves.

The actions of central banks have been perplexing, and in fact they are becoming a fear factor themselves. The Federal Reserve is the one bank trying to go against the easing trend, and it caused a bit of an uproar in markets this week when it reversed course on its interest rate forecast, stepping back from more than one hike this year and paring back on the number of increases for next year and the year after.

“You have the confusion coming from the reaction, response to the Fed, after two weeks ago they set up the market for a rate increase,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery. “There’s unevenness, waffling or the inconsistency of the reporting coming out of the Fed. … You had the Bank of Japan … based on the strength of the yen, was poised to act and it sat on the sidelines, rallying the yen even further. That’s disturbing based on the implications for the Japanese economy.”

Luschini said investors are becoming worried about overreach by the central banks. There was also some concern after Wednesday’s Fed meeting that the Fed felt it needed to reduce rate forecasts, just to maintain its already low economic forecasts.

“I think the legitimacy of Fed policy or central bank policy, whether it’s impotent or not, is coming to the forefront as a question in investors’ minds,” said Luschini. “The Fed is talking about an event [Brexit] that didn’t even happen yet. They focus on a date on a calendar for an event that could occur but has not occurred, and they’re acting in anticipation of that and are again becoming the world’s central bank.”

Yellen said Brexit factored into the Fed’s thinking when it met this week, and Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said he had been in contact with the Bank of England and other central banks about the risks of a Brexit. He blamed Brexit talk for the declines in Japanese government bond yields to record lows, and he acknowledged the risks from the yen’s sharp rise.

Even though the BOJ already took interest rates negative, the market speculated it could make other moves at Thursday’s meeting such as increasing its asset purchases, similar to the corporate bond buying program started by the European Central Bank last week. So the response was great when it failed to announce new policy, and Japanese stocks ended down 3 percent.

David Ader, chief Treasury strategist at CRT Capital, said the US 10-year yield is being tugged lower, mostly due to interest rate differentials, with the Japanese and German 10-year now at negative yields. Ader said the differential between the US 10-year and German bund when the 10-year was at this level in 2012 was much narrower than the current 1.55 differential. That level has been close to zero.

“With bunds where they are, we could go to 1.00 percent in 10s and still maintain a wide differential,” said Ader. “If you connect that we are being driven by these overseas issues then yes, it’s ridiculous but it’s not only about the US in that context, we can go lower.”

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify before Congress for two days next week, and her comments will again be critical to markets trying to decipher the Fed’s message.

“I’m just worried about what this means for the state of the world when you have rates grind lower and people are questioning the efficacy of central banks,” said Gonaclves. “To me, the bigger issue at hand is we don’t have a sustainable way to create upward growth.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Asia trades higher despite uncertainties surrounding Brexit

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Chinese mainland shares traded higher, with the benchmark Shanghai composite up 0.81 percent and the Shenzhen composite adding 1.39 percent.

Asia markets traded higher on the final day of a week marked by volatility amid concerns surrounding key central bank decisions and the UK’s upcoming June 23 referendum vote on its future within the European Union.

Investor sentiment in Asia also received a boost after US stocks ended a five-day losing streak to close higher Thursday.

Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2 percent in morning trade, boosted by a 0.62 percent advance in the financials sub-index, which accounts for nearly half of the broader index. In South Korea, the Kospi was up 0.52 percent; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 1 percent.

Chinese mainland shares traded higher, with the benchmark Shanghai composite up 0.81 percent and the Shenzhen composite adding 1.39 percent.

Japanese shares received a boost from a relatively weaker yen, as the benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 1.59 percent. The yen had strengthened against the dollar, after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept monetary policy steady on Thursday, in line with expectations.

The dollar/yen currency pair traded as low as 103.58 after the BOJ decision. As of 9:24 a.m. HK/SIN on Friday, the pair traded at 104.56. The yen also gained against other major crosses, with the euro/yen at 117.75, up from lows around 115.46 on Thursday.

Japan’s Finance minister Taro Aso told reporters on Friday he was deeply concerned about the “one-sided, rapid and speculative moves” seen in the currency market and that he would respond if necessary to ensure stability in currencies, according to Reuters.

Some analysts said Thursday’s moves in dollar/yen and euro/yen were largely due to non-Japanese factors.

“We see expectations of Fed rate hikes as the main driver of the dollar/yen,” said Michael Sneyd, a foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas. He added the fall in the euro/yen pair “in part reflects increased uncertainty related to the UK’s upcoming referendum on EU membership.”

Major Japanese exporters rallied on Friday, with shares of Toyota up 2.03 percent, Nissan adding 0.22 percent and Sony up by 0.61 percent. A relatively weaker yen is a positive for exporters as it increases their overseas profits when converted to local currency.

Much of the global economic uncertainties seen in markets this week surrounded the crucial June 23 referendum in the UK, where Britons will vote to decide to either leave or remain within the European Union. Several surveys released recently have shown public opinion was divided, with the Brexit campaign gaining momentum.

Campaigning for the referendum, however, was halted Thursday, after a British lawmaker, Jo Cox, was shot to death while meeting with constituents. Police said they arrested a 52-year-old man in the attack on Cox, but did not know of a motive for the killing.

“It is a tragic event. I have to say it may change the psychology of the campaign. And those who are pro-EU might benefit from this tragic event,” Fariborz Moshiran, director of the Institute of Global Finance at the UNSW Business School, told CNBC’s “Rundown” on Friday.

“The global economy is highly interdependent and for that reason the world is moving towards more unity and diversity rather than isolation from an integrated bloc such as the European Union,” he said. “For that reason I think it is possible to see a very close race and I wouldn’t be surprised if the outcome were to be different from what the current opinion polls are showing.”

The British pound traded at USD 1.4259 as of 8:20 a.m. HK/SIN on Friday, climbing on the back of the news from levels as low as USD 1.40 on Thursday.

Oil prices advanced during Asian hours, after slumping nearly 4 percent overnight amid lingering uncertainties. The global benchmark Brent was up 0.87 percent at USD 47.60 a barrel, after falling 3.6 percent on Thursday. US crude added 0.61 percent to USD 46.49, after finishing down 3.8 percent during US hours.

Energy plays in Asia traded mixed. Shares of Santos were up 0.94 percent, Oil Search was down 1.12 percent and Inpex gained 1.29 percent. Chinese mainland oil stocks were mostly up, with Sinopec advancing 1.05 percent.

The dollar touched levels near 95.300 overnight against a basket of currencies, but by Friday early morning, the dollar index pared back some of the gains to trade at 94.412.

Daniel Hui from JPMorgan Securities said a temporary dollar discount is likely in the coming months ahead of the US Presidential elections.

“We do not believe FX markets have yet begun to actively and systematically price in political risk surrounding the upcoming U.S. general elections,” Hui said in a note, adding it was likely due to “preoccupation with other imminent global political risk factor (the U.K. EU referendum next week), and because until at least last week there was still some lingering uncertainty as to who the two candidates competing in November would be.”

Hui said in the coming weeks, foreign exchange markets will look to “more actively price in US election risks” and that the dollar discount will likely be seen against reserve assets such as the euro, yen and gold.

Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 92.93 points, or 0.53 percent, at 17,733.10; the S&P 500 index was up 6.49 points, or 0.31 percent, at 2,077.99 and the Nasdaq composite added 9.98 points, or 0.21 percent, to 4,844.91.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Asia stocks down,yen surges as Bank of Japan keeps policy steady

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The yen’s strength came despite jawboning likely aimed at weakening the currency. Before the BOJ announcement, Japan’s chief government spokesman said the yen’s moves were being closely watched, calling the appreciation rapid and speculative, according to a Reuters report.

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply against the dollar and the Nikkei tumbled on Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady as was widely expected.

The dollar-yen pair traded at 104.10 as of 1:16 p.m. HK/SIN, compared with levels around 105.21 just before the decision. The BOJ decision was announced while Japan’s stock market was closed for its lunch break. The Nikkei 225 extended losses, dropping 3.1 percent to 15,426.09 in the afternoon, compared with a 1.10 percent decline before the decision. The Japanese benchmark index was at lows not seen since February 2016.

The yen’s strength came despite jawboning likely aimed at weakening the currency. Before the BOJ announcement, Japan’s chief government spokesman said the yen’s moves were being closely watched, calling the appreciation rapid and speculative, according to a Reuters report.

The rest of Asian markets mostly traded lower, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold.

In South Korea, the Kospi traded down 1.04 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 2.16 percent. Chinese mainland markets were mixed, with the Shanghai composite down 0.19 percent and the Shenzhen composite up 0.22 percent. That followed gains on Wednesday when the markets largely ignored a snub from MSCI, which made the decision to keep mainland listed shares out of its key emerging markets index.

Bucking the trend, Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 gave up gains to trade flat.

The Federal Open Market Committee held its interest rate target at 0.25-0.50 percent on Wednesday, after a two-day policy meeting.

In its post-meeting statement, the Fed noted that the unemployment rate had declined (to 4.7 percent) but “job gains have diminished.” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference following the statement release that the Brexit vote, due on June 23, was also one of the factors in Wednesday’s decision.

The Fed’s dot plot of future rate projections indicated there was still a greater likelihood of two moves before the end of 2016, but doubts have increased that that will happen.

“The level of confidence in that central case view is now less, with six members anticipating only one hike this year,” said ANZ’s Brian Martin.

Martin added that while all Fed meetings were considered “live,” the market pricing for a possible hike in July had fallen to almost zero. “[The Fed] will need a robust labor market report for June and strong data on retail sales and improving inflation if rates are to move up next month,” he said.

Analysts noted that the markets didn’t seem to appreciate the dovish bent.

Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at spreadbettor IG, said on Thursday, “Equity markets did not take the release especially well, with US markets closing down for the fifth day in a row…In the wake of the release, gold saw some minor gains, as did emerging market currencies and high yield debt.”

The dollar weakened against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index trading at 94.306 as of 1:18 p.m. HK/SIN, compared with levels near 94.798 on Wednesday afternoon Asia time.

The onshore Chinese yuan traded at 6.5740 against the dollar, after the People’s Bank of China set the yuan mid-point at 6.5739 on Thursday. China’s central bank lets the yuan spot rate rise or fall a maximum of 2 percent against the dollar, relative to the official fixing rate.

Oil prices fell for a fifth straight day overnight amid global uncertainties, particularly around the prospect of the U.K. leaving the EU following its June 23 referendum. On Thursday morning Asia time, global benchmark Brent traded down 0.76 percent at USD 48.61 a barrel, after finishing down 1.7 percent overnight. US crude futures were down 0.9 percent at USD 47.58, after dropping 1 percent in US hours.

Spot gold traded up 0.88 percent at USD 1,302.50 an ounce, following the Fed decision and weakness in the dollar. Gold miners in the region were up sharply, with Newcrest adding 3.01 percent and Evolution Mining up 5.6 percent.

In company news, shares of Australia’s Crown Resorts soared 12.88 percent, after the company announced plans for a demerger of its Australian and international investments.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut commodities trader Noble Group’s credit rating deeper into junk status on Wednesday. Noble’s long-term corporate credit rating was downgraded to B+ from BB-.

“We downgraded Noble to reflect our view that the company’s liquidity position has weakened despite the recent completion of refinancing and a proposed USUSD 500 million fully underwritten rights issue,” S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Danny Huang said in a media release.

Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 34.65 points, or 0.2 percent, at 17,640.17. The S&P 500 index was down 3.82 points, or 0.18 percent, at 2,071.50 and the Nasdaq composite finished down 8.62 points, or 0.18 percent, at 4,834.93.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy steady

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it would continue to conduct money market operations at a rate that kept the monetary base increasing at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen (USD 760 billion).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held rates steady Thursday, sending the yen sharply higher and sparking speculation on whether policymakers would intervene to halt the currency’s rise.

At the end of a two-day monetary policy review, the BOJ said it will continue to conduct money market operations so the monetary base increases at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen (USD 760 billion) and maintain a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the policy-rate balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the bank.

While the BOJ’s decision was widely anticipated, the yen still strengthened more than 1 percent against the dollar, hitting a 21-month high of 104.5, while Nikkei stock futures in Chicago and Osaka dropped more than 1 percent. The currency has already rallied 13.5 percent year to date against the greenback, inflicting pain on the export-focused companies listed on Japan’s benchmark equity index.

“It is really interesting when you get a flat decision out of a central bank and you see these big market swings. This makes investing more difficult for investors,” noted Macquarie division director Martin Lakos.

Should market turbulence continue, that could force officials to step in.

“Policymakers actually spend more time looking at equity markets than the actual yen, and if it does have a significantly negative impact on stocks, intervention risks picks up,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Barclays.

Ahead of the decision, HSBC predicted that policy inaction could cause unwanted currency gains.

If the BOJ abstained from stimulus on Thursday, that could weigh on market confidence in the central bank’s commitment to increasing inflation, potentially translating into a stronger currency and making the BOJ’s job even more difficult, Izumi Devalier, economist at HSBC, explained in a recent note.

“In our view, the longer the board waits to address downside risks to the economy and prices, the more markets will question the central bank’s commitment towards its inflation target,” she continued.

April’s consumer price inflation (CPI) report — the latest available – showed a 0.3 percent annual fall, the second straight month of decline and a far cry from the BOJ’s goal of 2 percent inflation by early 2018.

In its official statement on Thursday, the BOJ repeated that the economy continued “its moderate recovery trend,” citing steady improvement in business fixed investment, employment and housing investment.

It did acknowledge recent weak developments in private consumption and flat industrial production however, and expected annual change in CPI to be zero percent for the time being as energy prices extend their slide.

The central bank has kept its powder dry since the shock-and-awe introduction of negative rates in January, and the majority of market participants had expected that trend to continue this month, pointing to the upcoming UK Brexit referendum as a key reason.

Britain votes on June 23 on whether to will stay in or leave the European Union and market upheaval caused by a Brexit could spark further yen appreciation.

The current isn’t an explicit objective of monetary policy, but its strength actively hurts the wider Japanese economy, Mizuho Bank said in a note on Thursday.

On Wednesday, Reuters reported the BOJ had a contingency plan if Britain did leave, one that involves the central bank offering dollar funds to Japanese banks should investors rush to buy the US currency in a flight to safety.

Analysts now expect the BOJ to take action in July as officials wait to assess the market implications from the June 23 vote.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Fed must hike rates to prevent a recession: Robert Heller

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

“There is a very dangerous scenario building up in the US because the rates are so low and for so long,” Heller, who was on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 1986 to 1989, warned.

If the Federal Reserve did not start increasing interest rates, that could the cause of the next US recession, former Fed Governor Robert Heller told CNBC.

“There is a very dangerous scenario building up in the US because the rates are so low and for so long,” Heller, who was on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 1986 to 1989, warned.

His comments to CNBC’s “Squawk Box” came after the Fed said on Wednesday that it would keep interest rates unchanged from the current 0.25-0.50 percent. The post-meeting statement also took a more dovish tone, with some indication that the central bank may hike rates only once this year, instead of the two increases previously flagged.

But Heller pointed to increasing risks from the impact of low rates on investment returns.

“Pension funds and insurance companies will sooner or later have a very hard time fulfilling their obligations and that would be definitely triggering the next recession,” he said. “When that will happen, when they will run out of money, when they can not fulfill their obligations, nobody really knows, but that may be the trigger for the next big downturn in the US”

The US economy last entered a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of year-on-year economic contraction — in December 2007, after the housing bubble burst, leading to a global financial crisis. That recession, dubbed the Great Recession, ended in mid-2009, making it the longest US recession since the end of World War II.

Heller said he still hoped for two interest rate hikes in 2016, adding that a potential July increase was “still on the table,” depending on how data for the current month cames in.

The Fed’s more dovish projections come less than two weeks after a Labor Department report showed a 38,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for May, well below expectations in the 160,000 range.

But Heller, who was formerly the CEO of Visa USA and worked at Fair Isaac, now known as FICO, the consumer credit rating provider, from 1994-2001, wasn’t convinced that weaker jobs data should slow the hiking cycle.

“The US had just one bad month of employment data and the Fed is overemphasizing that one bad month,” he said.

“Not all that much has changed. Investment has gone down just a little bit in the US economy,” Heller added. “The consumer is doing very well. Auto sales are at a very high level. Housing is also performing very well and overall consumer spending is very good. Outside the US, also not much changed.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Brexit factored in decision, may have consequences for US:Yellen

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Amid worries about slowing job growth, Federal Reserve officials remain only tentatively committed to two more rate hikes this year, and provided indications Wednesday that there might be only one.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Brexit concerns were a factor in the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision.

“It was fair to say it was one of the factors that factored into today’s decision,” she said at a news conference after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected.

Yellen also said Brexit “could have consequences in turn for the US economic outlook.

Amid worries about slowing job growth, Federal Reserve officials remain only tentatively committed to two more rate hikes this year, and provided indications Wednesday that there might be only one.

Market expectations for a Fed rate hike dwindled ahead of the meeting, amid a lackluster May jobs report and concerns about a British exit from the European Union.

Gold prices surged after the announcement, briefly hitting USD 1,300 an ounce, while yields traded lower, with the benchmark 10-year note yield near 1.6 percent.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, expectations for a hike were just 2 percent ahead of the announcement.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

US Producer Price Index up 0.4% in May vs 0.3% increase expected

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

US producer prices rose for a second straight month in May as the cost of energy products and services increased, but the lingering effects of a strong dollar and lower energy prices will likely keep inflation tame for a while

US producer prices rose for a second straight month in May as the cost of energy products and services increased, but the lingering effects of a strong dollar and lower energy prices will likely keep inflation tame for a while.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in April. In the 12 months through May, the PPI slipped 0.1 percent after being unchanged in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3 percent last month and slipping 0.1 percent from a year ago.

A surge in the dollar and the plunge in oil prices between June 2014 and December 2015 have dampened price pressures, keeping inflation below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

Although the dollar has dropped 1.5 percent against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners this year and oil prices are near $50 per barrel, underlying inflation remains benign.

Last month, energy prices jumped 2.8 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in April. Energy prices accounted for two-thirds of the 0.7 percent rise in the cost of goods last month.

Prices for services rose 0.2 percent after inching up 0.1 percent in April. The increase reflected an increase in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.

A key measure of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services dipped 0.1 percent last month after rising 0.3 percent in April.

The so-called core PPI was up 0.8 percent in the 12 months through May. The core PPI increased 0.9 percent in April.

Manufacturing in New York grew in June

A separate report showed factory activity in New York expanded in June, rebounding from a May decline as manufacturer orders and shipments rose.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says that its Empire State manufacturing index rose to 6 in June, after slumping to minus 9 the previous month. Any reading above zero points to expansion.

The figures indicate that New York factories are seeing slight improvements in their outlook, although the employment gauge of the index shows that hiring has been flat. Factory output nationwide has been weak this year as sluggish economic growth worldwide has hurt demand for US exports.

A measure of new orders rose to 10.9, from minus 5.5 the previous month. And a gauge of shipments also turned positive at 9.32, up from minus 1.9.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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The Fed just made this number a lot more important

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The consumer price index, expected at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Thursday, is the first fresh inflation report after the Fed forecasts Wednesday revealed that one rate hike is probably more likely than two this year. Fed forecasts also show at least four fewer hikes than previously forecast through 2018.

The Fed dialed back forecasts for how fast it will raise rates over the next couple of years, so now anything to do with inflation becomes more important to markets, as a flare up in prices or expectations might be the one thing that could get the Fed moving.

The consumer price index, expected at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Thursday, is the first fresh inflation report after the Fed forecasts Wednesday revealed that one rate hike is probably more likely than two this year. Fed forecasts also show at least four fewer hikes than previously forecast through 2018.

Economists expect May CPI to be tame, rising by 0.3 percent, or 1.1 percent year over year, when it is reported at 8:30 a.m. EDT, according to Thomson Reuters. That compares to 0.4 percent in April. The core is expected to be up 0.2 percent or 2.2 percent year over year, about the same as last month.

The Fed on Wednesday did not make much change in its message and it emphasized it will still hike rates, but now seemingly more slowly. The message of a slower-moving Fed was clear in the so-called “dot plot,” a chart with dots on a timeline representing each Fed official’s interview. The Fed did retain its forecast for two rates this year, but the dots revealed that six members want to see one hike this year, up from one in March.

“The extent to which the dovishness that’s been communicated by the dots is really what the key is. You have about six people thinking one hike is appropriate [for 2016],” said Jim Caron, fixed income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

“That’s a little bit of a surprise. The other surprise is if you look at 2017 and 2018 … they’re taking out one hike in 2017 and they’re taking out two and a half in 2018. It calls into question how do they get to the 3 percent. Is that just pie-in-the sky stuff and do they take that down to 2 percent?” Three percent is the terminal rate, or neutral rate.

“Just a few weeks ago, the expression ‘gradual normalization’ meant a rate hike every six months, and now it looks like a rate hike every year. It’s a very muddled picture and they have not helped it,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

McCarthy said it’s less clear what will now trigger Fed rate hikes, and even inflation may not matter. The Fed was expected to hold off on June and possibly July after May’s very weak employment report showed just 38,000 jobs created. The fact that Brexit — the UK vote on whether to stay in the European Union — has created some concern in markets was seen as another factor, but less so.

But some Fed watchers are wondering why the Fed is shifting so much of its longer-term view on rates.

“There was an abrupt change from the minutes of the April meeting to what they did today. What would get you from point A to point B? The only major important difference is maybe the labor market weakened, but as she said, you shouldn’t base too much on one data point. She didn’t offer much different except for that one data point,” said McCarthy.

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said stocks reacted late in the day to comments from Yellen as she was asked about the fact that the meeting minutes indicated Fed members had wanted to hike rates in June. Cashin said there was also more than $1 billion in stock for sale going into the closing bell, and that weighed on the market. The S&P 500 closed at 2,071, off three points.

The big moves in markets after the Fed meeting were in Treasury yields where the two-year note went from a yield of about 0.72 percent to 0.66 percent late in the day. The 10-year was at 1.57 percent. Treasury yields have been slipping in recent weeks due to the easing programs of other central banks and worries about Brexit.

Caron said he continues to see just one rate hike in December. “The Fed is out of play for a while. This should be good for other assets. This should be good for EM. This should be good for high yield. … We have to get Brexit out of the way before the all-clear siren sounds. This should be a very risk-on outcome to this meeting, except that there’s a risk event that sits in front of us,” he said. The Brexit vote is June 23, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirmed at her press briefing that the Fed did consider it during the meeting.

The Fed’s statement did comment that household spending was improving, but that labor market improvement was slowing.

Scott Clemons, Chief Investment Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said he is watching inflation but the single most important data he is watching is the average hourly earnings growth, at about 2.5 percent. “That may be the source of inflation pressure that forces the Fed’s hand, but not yet. Wages are beginning to outpace core prices,” he said.

Core CPI has been above the Fed’s 2 percent target, but the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is the PCE deflator, and it is below 2 percent.

Clemons said the Fed’s change in interest rate forecasts is not a surprise. “I think the consensus has been moving that way for some time. You have one more rate hike [this year], and then it just becomes a guessing game,” he said.

But McCarthy said what seems to be an about-face by the Fed in its longer-term view is bad for confidence.

“They shatter confidence. What comes across is they’re not confident in the economy and they’re not confident in monetary policy, and that’s not a good thing from a central bank,” said McCarthy.

Besides CPI, weekly jobless claims are also reported at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise slightly to 270,000. The current account is also reported at 8:30 a.m., and the Philadelphia Fed survey is released at 10 a.m.

Caron said he was also watching the Bank of Japan overnight, which he said has a 50 percent chance of surprising the market after its meeting.

Amherst Pierpont chief economist Stephen Stanley expects to see a 0.3 percent increase in CPI, and 0.2 percent in core. “A noticeable seasonally adjusted rise in energy prices drives the headline estimate, while my core forecast reflects a largely trend-like performance. Core services prices have firmed slightly and will continue to drive the aggregate, led by shelter costs. Over time, core goods prices are likely to stabilize or tick up in the wake of the turnaround in import prices in recent months, but it is likely too early to see that effect by May,” he wrote.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Odds for a July rate hike drop after Fed holds steady

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

While the Fed still sees rates at 0.9 percent by the end of 2016, it is now looking for the funds rate to rise to 1.6 percent in 2017, as opposed to the 1.9 percent estimate in March.

The CME Group FedWatch probability for a July rate hike dropped after the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for the funds rate on Wednesday.

While the Fed still sees rates at 0.9 percent by the end of 2016, it is now looking for the funds rate to rise to 1.6 percent in 2017, as opposed to the 1.9 percent estimate in March.

Before the announcement, the market estimated a 21 percent chance of a July rate hike, but those odds, which dropped as low as 0 percent, now sit near 10 percent.

Traders tracked by the CME now see about a 26 percent chance of a September rate hike. They sat at a 35 percent chance before the statement.

Thirty-day fed funds futures prices are widely considered a reliable indicator of U.S. monetary policy changes. CME’s FedWatch tool tracks the target rates based on fed funds futures contract prices.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the market’s guess for the next rate hike.

After the announcement, odds dropped in all months tracked by CME:

  • July: 10 percent chance, down from 21 percent prior to the 2 p.m. ET announcement.
  • September: 26 percent, down from 35 percent
  • November: 27 percent, down from 36 percent
  • December: 45 percent, down from 51 percent
  • February 2017: 48 percent, down from 54 percent

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

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