The Philippines outshone larger peers to emerge as Asia’s fastest-growing economy during the second quarter. Sustaining that pace may prove more difficult.

That may be as good as it gets for the Philippines for this year, analysts say.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen could clear the air next week, sounding more concrete on whether the central bank will squeeze in a rate hike or two this year, but more likely she won’t.

“I think she’s going to play her cards very close to the vest. I don’t think she can signal a September hike,” said Diane Swonk, CEO of DS Economics. Swonk said three inflation reports and the August employment report will be released after the Aug. 26 speech and before the Sept. 20 Fed meeting. “She’s got to leave her options open.”

But Swonk said the Fed is caught in a difficult spot, and there are good reasons why it would want to ease sooner even though it’s unlikely.

“It’s the Fed’s conundrum. … The markets are pricing in easing infinity. If they raise rates, they could destabilize the markets. If they don’t raise rates, they’re feeding a bubble. It’s a hard place to be in,” she said.

Barclays’ chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, is among a minority on Wall Street who believe the Fed could raise rates in September.

“I hope she steps up and gives an interesting speech. Don’t give me this blah-dity blah. The markets need to hear from her. She’s lost some credibility with investors. There are many market participants that believe she will never see sufficient data to make her move,” he said

Gapen said Yellen should sound a bit more hawkish and more confident in the economy when she speaks, but he agrees that the Fed chair can’t give the nod to a September hike because of the pending August jobs report, released the following Friday.

But he expects that report to confirm the recent solid trend, clearing the way for a hike. Gapen said the Fed could even slip in a second increase at the end of the year.

“I can see a world where that happens. I can also see a world where it doesn’t. In my view, they need to be opportunistic when they have the window on good news. The good news it the labor markets have rebounded and the recession is not there as some have feared,” he said.

Wednesday’s release of Fed minutes somewhat put to rest heightened speculation that the Fed could raise rates in September, a time frame that was written off by many on Wall Street because of the mixed performance of the economy and the proximity to the presidential election.

In the lull of a mid-August market, talk had picked up after comments Tuesday from New York Fed President William Dudley, who basically warned the market it is too complacent and that it would be appropriate for Fed to hike soon, maybe even at its September meeting.

But the Fed’s minutes from its July meeting showed a divided central bank, with some members too worried about the economy while others were ready to raise rates. The Street took that release as meaning the Fed remains in dovish mode even though the views reflected in it were three weeks old. Treasury yields fell and the dollar resumed its downward trajectory, as the market moved back to the view that the only hike this year would be in December.

“Listen to Dudley and not the minutes,” wrote Deutsche Bank currency strategist Alan Ruskin. “I think Dudley could not have been clearer on the (market) being mispriced on Fed rate risks. If you take the FOMC minute headlines at face value, the slightly softer 2yr yield that followed the minutes is the correct response. However, I expect the rates/FX market will go back to focusing primarily on the latest read from Dudley.”

The opinion of Dudley is important since he is viewed as close to Yellen, at the center of the dovish core of the Fed. So it was important that when speaking to the press Thursday, he doubled down on his earlier comments.

“My views haven’t changed since Tuesday,” Dudley said to reporters. He also said growth is picking up in the second half and that the labor market is continuing to improve. On the labor front, he also said there are some signs that wages are picking up and there has been a turnaround in hiring of jobs in the middle of the scale, after several years of growth only in the lowest- and highest-paying jobs.

Swonk said Dudley has to be worried about the buoyancy of financial markets, since as the head of the New York Fed he is the official most closely tied to the markets. She said it would be hard for the Fed to move in September, with the heightened uncertainty surrounding this year’s election.

“It would just put them in a political hail storm for no reason,” Swonk said. “There’s a good economic policy reason to delay past the election. Talk about making yourself a political pinata. It looks like you’re turning a blind eye on one of the most contentious election cycles we’ve ever had. You’ve got to be cautious.”

Gapen said the election could end up being a factor to stay the Fed.

“It’s possible but I think I’d say on a first-order basis, they do things irrespective of the political calendar. But they’re people too and they don’t want to be a part of the debate. If anything, the fact there’s an election out there probably makes them more sensitive,” he said.

Gapen added they could see a move in September as a way to get ahead of the election. “If she’s dead set on going in September, she has to give a pretty clear speech. The volatility tends to be driven by unexpected things. If you’re worried your move is going to generate volatility, just be clear about what you’re going to do. Let markets get there and then you can make your move.”

European stocks opened higher on Thursday as markets digest minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting.

Key earnings were in focus for investors on Thursday. Swiss food giant Nestle said first-half organic sales grew 3.5 percent, missing analyst expectations amid continued challenges in China.

Meanwhile Raiffeisen Bank International said its second quarter net profit came in at 96 million euros (USD 108.6 million), missing market expectations.

Kingfisher, the owner of B&Q in the U.K., said second-quarter like-for-like sales were up 3 percent and said that the Brexit vote had led to “no clear evidence of an impact on demand so far”,

In the US, stocks closed mostly higher on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest minutes from the Fed for more clues on the trajectory of interest rates.

Some voting Federal Reserve policymakers expect that a US interest rate increase will be required soon although there is general agreement that more data are needed before such a move, according to the minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting.

On Tuesday, New York Fed President William Dudley said a rate hike could come next month. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the US economy is strong enough to withstand at least one increase this year.

Meanwhile in Asia on Wednesday, Japanese shares dropped on Thursday morning in an otherwise positive Asian trading session, as a stronger yen weighed on sentiment. Data showed that Japan’s exports fell 14 percent on-year in July, the worst drop in seven years, but in line with expectations, while imports declined 24.7 percent, missing a Reuters forecast for a 20.6 percent decline.

Oil prices dipped in early trading on Thursday as the prospect of record Saudi output weighed on markets and as traders cashed in on profits following an almost uninterrupted price rally this month of nearly 20 percent.

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service raised its forecasts for China’s economic growth in the wake of “significant” fiscal and monetary stimulus policies.

“The slowdown and rebalancing of China’s economy is likely to be gradual,” said Madhavi Bokil, a senior analyst at Moody’s, in a statement. “Thus we do not expect China to exert a significant drag on global growth prospects over the rest of 2016 and in 2017.”

China’s economy has been slowing, posting its slowest growth rate in 25 years in 2015, and a slew of readings released earlier this month came in slightly below expectations.

Economists were particularly concerned after fixed asset investment missed expectations, rising 8.1 percent in the January-July period, compared with a Reuters poll forecast for 8.8 percent. That was the slowest pace of growth since 1999, according to Reuters.

Analysts expected that the implications for long-term growth would likely spur further stimulus, particularly from the fiscal side amid concerns additional monetary easing may overheat the property sector. The country’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has already run through several rounds of easing, including lowering banks’ reserve requirement ratios and cutting interest rates.

Moody’s also raised its economic growth forecasts for Japan.

The ratings agency expected Japan’s economy to grow 0.7 percent and 0.9 percent in 2016 and 2017 respectively, up from its previous estimate of 0.4 percent for both years.

It also cited authorities’ stimulus efforts for the change, as well as expectations of further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan.

Japan’s efforts to kick start its long-moribund economy have stumbled. Data released on Monday showed that the economy failed to grow from the previous quarter, missing forecasts for 0.2 percent growth. Exports in July tumbled 14 percent on-year while imports collapsed 24.7 percent, data showed Thursday.

Earlier this month, the government announced a stimulus package worth $278 billion in hopes of increasing gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1.3 percent, Reuters said. Analysts also have expected that the BOJ would introduce further monetary easing although at its July meeting, the central bank disappointed markets.

It said it would only increase its exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases so that their amount outstanding on its balance sheet would rise at an annual pace of 6 trillion yen ($56.7 billion), from 3.3 trillion yen previously. Analysts had expected that the BOJ might cut interest rates further into negative territory or increase its purchases of Japanese government bonds, or both.

A better outlook for China would likely help to stabilize the outlook for emerging market economies as well, Moody’s added in a press release on Thursday.

It also noted that a modest recovery in commodity prices and better capital flows would help keep emerging markets on an even keel.

Moody’s upgraded its growth forecast for G20 emerging markets by 0.2 percentage point each to 4.4 percent for 2016 and 5.0 percent for 2017, mainly on Russia’s and Brazil’s economies contracting at a slower pace and higher China growth expectations.

But Moody’s noted that emerging markets have previously experienced “sharp reversals” in capital flows when the US Federal Reserve has tightened policy, such as in 2013 when the central bank first broached the idea that it would taper its quantitative easing program.

“Financial market turbulence could easily return when the US rate increase cycle resumes or political risks crystallize,” Elena Duggar, an associate managing director at Moody’s, added in the statement.

The report said, “their ability to weather external headwinds during the early phase of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate tightening cycle in 2017 is material to the assessment of their economic outlooks.”

Japanese exports tumbled at their steepest pace in seven years as a stronger yen weighed on international shipments.