Given robust system of reporting, missing out on COVID deaths unlikely: Govt

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Refuting media reports that alleged India’s COVID-19 death toll was “vastly undercounted”, the government on Thursday said the reports assume that all excess mortality figures are COVID deaths, which is not based on facts and totally fallacious. Given the robust and statute-based death registration system in India, while some cases could go undetected as per the principles of infectious disease and its management, missing out on the deaths is unlikely, the Union Health Ministry said.

There have been some recent media reports alleging that India’s toll of excess deaths during the pandemic could be in millions, terming the official COVID-19 death toll “vastly undercounted”, the ministry said in a statement. In these news reports, quoting findings from some recent studies, the US and European countries’ age-specific infection fatality rates have been used to calculate excess deaths in India based on the sero-positivity.

“The extrapolation of deaths has been done on an audacious assumption that the likelihood of any given infected person dying is the same across countries, dismissing the interplay between various direct and indirect factors such as race, ethnicity, the genomic constitution of a population, previous exposure levels to other diseases and the associated immunity developed in that population,” the statement said.

Furthermore, the sero-prevalence studies are not only used to guide strategy and measures to further prevent the spread of infection to the vulnerable population but are also used as another basis to extrapolate deaths. The studies also have another potential concern that the antibody titers may diminish over time, leading to underestimation of true prevalence and corresponding overestimation of infection fatality rate.

“Further, the reports assume that all the excess mortality figures are COVID-19 deaths, which is not based on facts and totally fallacious. Excess mortality is a term used to describe an all-cause mortality figure and attributing these deaths to COVID-19 is completely misleading,” the statement said.

India has a thorough contact-tracing strategy. All the primary contacts, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, are tested for COVID-19. The true detected cases are the ones that test positive with RT-PCR, which is the gold standard of COVID-19 test.

In addition to the contacts, given the vast availability of more than 2,700 testing laboratories in the country, anyone who wants to get tested is able to get the test done. This, coupled with awareness campaigns about the symptoms and access to medical care, has ensured people could reach out to hospitals in case of need. Given the robust and statute-based death registration system in India, missing out on the deaths is unlikely.

This could also be seen in the case fatality rate, which, as on 31st December 2020, stood at 1.45 percent and even after an unexpected surge observed in the second wave in April-May 2021, the case fatality rate today stands at 1.34 percent, it said. Moreover, the reporting of daily new cases and deaths in India follows a bottom-up approach, where districts report the number of cases and deaths to the state governments and to the Union Ministry on a continuous basis, the statement said.

As early as May 2020, to avoid inconsistency or confusion in the number of deaths being reported, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) issued ‘Guidance for appropriate recording of COVID-19 related deaths in India’ for correct recording of all deaths by States/UTs as recommended by the WHO for mortality coding. In his statement in Rajya Sabha, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has refuted allegations of hiding COVID-19 deaths and said that the central government only compiles and publishes data sent by the state governments, the statement said.

The Union Health Ministry has been repeatedly advising states and UTs for recording of deaths in accordance with guidelines. The Health Ministry has also regularly emphasised the need for a robust reporting mechanism for monitoring district-wise cases and deaths on a daily basis. States have been advised to conduct thorough audits in their hospitals and report any cases or deaths that could have been missed with a district and date-wise details so as to guide a data-driven decision-making.

During the peak of the second wave, the entire health system was focused on effective clinical management of cases requiring medical help, and correct reporting & recording could have been compromised which is also evident in a few states such as Maharashtra, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh reconciling their number of deaths recently.

In addition to this reporting, the robustness of statute-based Civil Registration System (CRS) ensures all the births and deaths in the country get registered. The CRS follows process of data collection, cleaning, collating and publishing the numbers, which although is a time-consuming process, but ensures no deaths are missed out. For the expanse and amplitude of the activity, the numbers are usually published a year later, the statement said.

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Pegasus row: How much does it cost to use the spyware?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Created by Israel-based surveillance tech company NSO Group, the Pegasus spyware was allegedly used to hack into smartphones of ministers, opposition leaders and journalists in India.

According to a 2016 New York Times report, the NSO — which claims to deal with only authorised governments — doesn’t sell its spyware cheap. In fact, the cost of spying on people by putting Pegasus in their smartphones runs into crores.

The Israeli firm charges an installation fee of $500,000 (around Rs 3.7 crore), $650,000 (Rs 4.8 crore) to spy on 10 iPhones or Android users; $500,000 to spy on five BlackBerry users; or $300,000 (Rs 2.23 crore) to spy on five Symbian users, according to the report.

The report adds that 100 additional spyware targets cost $800,000 (around Rs 5.9 crore). The price for 50 extra targets is $500,000, for 20 extra targets is $250,000 (Rs 1.8 crore), and for 10 extra targets is $150,000 (Rs 1.1 crore).

The NSO Group also charges a hefty maintenance fee of 17 percent of the total price.

Going by this 2016 price chart and considering that 300 people were put under such surveillance, the service would have cost a few hundred crores. The cost would shoot up further if renewal charges and annual cost escalation are factored in.

Meanwhile, French media rights organisation — Forbidden Stories — has clarified that the presence of a phone number in the database doesn’t necessarily mean that the corresponding device was infected with Pegasus.

Among Indians, the database had the phone numbers of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, election strategist Prashant Kishor, former Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa and leaders of the Congress-JD(S) government in Karnataka and 40 journalists.

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Havells Q1FY22: Shares zoom over 7% as net profit sees four-fold jump

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Shares of consumer electrical goods maker Havells India Ltd on Thursday gained over 7 percent after the company reported a nearly four-fold jump in its consolidated net profit for the first quarter ended June 2021. The stock jumped 7.30 percent to Rs 1,184 on the BSE.

At the NSE, it gained 7.29 percent to Rs 1,184. Havells India Ltd on Wednesday reported a nearly four-fold jump in its consolidated net profit to Rs 235.78 crore for the first quarter ended June 2021, driven by “resilient” demand post easing of COVID restrictions.

The company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 63.98 crore in the April-June quarter a year ago, Havells said in a regulatory filing. Its revenue from operations was up 75.95 percent at Rs 2,609.97 crore during the period under review, as against Rs 1,483.40 crore a year ago.

Havells India Chairman and Managing Director Anil Rai Gupta said, “Despite a truncated quarter, overall performance has been encouraging across segments. The demand has been resilient, and we expect further improvement as COVID restrictions are progressively lifted.”

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Partisan fight brews as forecaster warns US could hit debt limit by fall

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US Treasury Department is projected to exhaust its borrowing authority in October or November, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday, as a fight between Democrats and Republicans over raising the nation’s debt ceiling erupted in Congress.

“If that occurred, the government would be unable to pay its obligations fully, and it would delay making payments for its activities, default on its debt obligations, or both,” the non-partisan CBO said in a statement. It noted this timeline could change depending on the pace of revenue collections and government outlays.

A failure to work out differences over whether government spending cuts should accompany an increase in the statutory debt limit, currently set at USD 28.5 trillion, could lead to a federal government shutdown – as has happened three times in the past decade – or even a debt default.

President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats narrowly control both the Senate and House of Representatives. No senior Republicans have mentioned a shutdown threat in recent public statements. Democrats are insisting on a “clean” debt limit increase unfettered by a fight over spending reductions.

The top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell, said on Wednesday that members of his party would be unlikely to support a debt limit increase given the current Democratic drive for a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure investment bill.

“I can’t imagine there will be a single Republican voting to raise the debt ceiling after what we’ve been experiencing,” McConnell told the Congress-focused Punchbowl News.

McConnell suggested Democrats address the debt limit in a second spending measure they are expecting to pass without Republican votes in a manoeuvre called reconciliation.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called McConnell’s remarks “shameless, cynical and totally political.” Schumer said Republicans did not raise such concerns during the presidency of Republican Donald Trump and that some of the debt is related to emergency aid in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Another leading Democrat, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, accused Republicans of trying to launch a protracted debate over the cost of popular federal programs such as Social Security to cloud the debt limit issue.

Wyden rejected McConnell’s suggestion that a debt limit bill be attached to a Democrats-only infrastructure investment bill that could advance this fall, saying, “We’re going to do it quickly” through more conventional procedures.

The Treasury Department on July 31 technically bumps up against its statutory debt limit. Much like a personal credit card maximum, the debt ceiling is the amount of money the federal government is allowed to borrow to meet its obligations. These range from paying military salaries and IRS tax refunds to Social Security benefits and even interest payments on the debt.

Since the government spends more than it receives in revenues, it keeps operating by borrowing more and more.

For many years, the statutory debt limit was raised to a specific dollar level. More recently, Congress has set the limit to a specific date in the future.

Lawmakers often try to extend borrowing authority to beyond the next US election so that it does not become a campaign issue. The midterm elections that will determine whether Democrats retain control of Congress are set for November 2022.

If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling from its current USD 28.5 trillion by the time that the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority runs out, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to take special steps to avoid a government default. Such stop-gap measures are effective for only a short period.

Failure to raise the debt ceiling could lead to a repeat of the government shutdowns that occurred in 2013, January 2018 and 35 days from late December 2018 into January 2019. Other factors also were in play during those disruptions.

In a sign of Wall Street’s worry about the approaching limits, yields on short-term US Treasury debt have inched up to around 0.05 percent, after having hovered near zero since early in the pandemic.

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Anand Rathi Wealth files IPO papers with SEBI

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Anand Rathi Wealth, a part of Anand Rathi Group, a financial services company, has filed preliminary papers with market regulator SEBI to raise funds via an initial public offering (IPO).

The IPO is entirely an offer for sale (OFS) of 1.2 crore shares by promoters and existing shareholders, the company’s draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) showed.

Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd (ARFSL) will offer 9.29 million shares and Anand Rathi, Pradeep Gupta, Priti Gupta, Supriya Rathi, Amit Rathi, Rawal Family Trust, Feroze Azeez will offer up to 375,000 shares each. Jugal Mantri, the Group CFO, will offer up to 90,000 shares.

The company has appointed Equirus Capital, BNP Paribas, IIFL Securities Limited, Anand Rathi Advisors Limited as the merchant bankers to the IPO. The shares will be listed on both BSE and NSE.

Anand Rathi Wealth operates in the financial services industry, focusing on mutual fund distribution and the sale of financial products. It has been ranked among the top three non-bank mutual fund distributors in India by gross commission earned in the fiscal year 2019-20.

It manages Rs 26,058 crore in assets under management (AUM) as of March 21 and caters to 6,109 active client families.

As of March 2021, Anand Rathi, the founder of the Anand Rathi Group, holds a 12.85 percent stake in the firm, while ARFSL holds 43.12 percent. Pradeep Gupta, the co-founder and vice-chairman of the Anand Rathi Group, holds a 5.48 percent stake in the firm.

The company aims to enhance its brand name and provide liquidity to the existing shareholders via the IPO. It had filed draft papers with SEBI for a Rs 425-crore IPO in 2018 but had withdrawn the proposal.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Balancing financial inclusion and security for payment enablers

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A key contributor to development for any economy, financial inclusion is a priority for the Indian government for many years. The digital revolution has already pervaded the urban realm and unlocked several tech-enabled digital payment solutions. This begs the question – are the hinterlands developing at a similar place? Especially when more than half of the 64 million MSMEs are based in rural India.

India’s tier 4, 5 and 6 towns and villages present a world of untapped potential for payment enablers to introduce their services and help individuals and businesses enter and benefit from the digital commerce revolution. Though JAM trinity paved the way for Financial Inclusion in terms of bridging the gap for underbanked linking with mobile and Aadhar for digital enablement, However, there exist certain challenges that are hindering the proliferation of broader financial inclusion across the country.

Challenge#1: Access to credit – How to build strong credit framework for the unbanked?

While the crucial, tech-led elements of financial inclusion are gaining massive traction in mainstream regions, their reach has traditionally been limited. Take, for instance, a micro/ small business in an Indian village. Its highly probable that this region has been exposed to high-speed, low-cost data, and smart phones. In today’s day and age, there’s not much more you need to envision the geographical expansion of a business. Simply put, the financial products are in place for this business to leverage. The only shortcoming, then, is how does this business get credit or loans for its growth without a credit history? Especially when the lending sector is transformed[social score] based on data-led lending augmenting the financial parameters [credit score, financial soundness].

Traditionally, banks require prior financial data or credit history to ascertain the creditworthiness of a business or individual. In the case of MSMEs or individual based in the country’s hinterlands, this could impede financial inclusion. Several individuals may still be unbanked and, thus, would not qualify for credit through the traditional means and numerous schemes offered by the government.

However, today several financial institutions, digital lending apps planning to expand to small towns can adopt non-traditional mechanisms for building a social and financial database for individuals and business owners. These data points can be derived from several aspects of the potential borrower’s day-to-day life such as their social standing, assets, utility/mobile bill payment history, social savviness, local opinion, and more. Building a well-rounded database with such a bottom-up approach can ensure that small and micros business get into the mainstream data fabric enabling them to receive credit and expansion opportunities, thereby driving economic growth and financial inclusion of the region and the country at large. Credit decisions, in such cases, can be made within 5-10 seconds – no banking history needed.

Challenge#2 – How to introduce payment security in the backdrop of financial inclusion?

Let’s go back to the above example. Our small and micro business is now on the cusp of doing great things. With substantial credit to its name, the MSME is set to target larger markets. But, in the absence of tech-savviness, access to market places, digital supply chain, how does a business grow in today’s digital-first environment? In the case of a tech-savvy entrepreneur, the route would be fairly easy. They could simply connect with online marketplaces that offer comprehensive seller services that allow mass-onboarding for rural regions.

Without technical know-how, the most lucrative option is an intermediary or business correspondent. Such middlemen would act as financial advisors for entrepreneurs and individuals. Post office workers, gas station employees, phone recharge shop owners can all double up as trustworthy financial business correspondents who could help individuals secure loans, carry out peer-to-peer payments, receive payments from their customers, and much more. Locals already know these individuals and would be able to trust them with their financial transactions.

However, financial security remains elusive as long as digital financial transactions are not protected by authentication and secure enough. So, how does an MSME authenticate transactions done through intermediaries or even by themselves?

Biometric, fingerprints, and face IDs are all great ways to ensure secure transactions. These methods are also largely contactless – the veritable need of the hour during the COVID-19 period. To bolster security, several new-age payment enablers are using voice-based authentication which is highly secure and extremely simple to use. Such a mechanism sends data over sound, authenticating a transaction within seconds. All customers need to do is simply say hello and their transaction would be complete. The risk of fraud is reduced exponentially while offering a superior authentication experience for end-users. Sound wave-based payments can be made on basic feature phones even in absence of the internet. In addition, sound biometric, fingerprint or faced-based multifactor authentication on a basic smartphone will provide additional options for secure contactless payments.

Another secure method of carrying out financial transactions for such reasons is through a prepaid card. Recently the RBI announced that prepaid payment instruments with complete KYC would be made completely interoperable. With this development, MSMEs or individuals will be able to tie their prepaid cards to their mobile phones and get paid for their products and services instantly and securely based on 2-Factor Authentication. This will also do away with cash pilferage at various levels, further preventing fraud. Other important financial services like credit, P2P payments, etc could also be carried out through prepaid cards to drive financial inclusion across the country’s socio-economic landscape.

As evident by the aforementioned, it can be stated with some confidence that financial inclusion and payment security can go hand in hand. With systematic, targeted growth and development of the fintech space, we can see the next phase of financial inclusion being unlocked in India sooner than imagined.

The author, Ravi Battula, is Head Merchant Acquiring Solutions at Wibmo — a PayU Company. The views expressed are personal

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bezos ‘thanks’ Amazon employees for funding ‘fun’ trip to space, counterblast follows on Twitter

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Billionaire Jeff Bezos thanked every Amazon employee and customer for ‘paying’ for his space trip but it wasn’t taken well by many.

The Amazon founder, who stepped down as CEO on July 5, expressed his ‘gratitude’ with good intentions but the result turned out to be just the opposite.

Critics have been regularly pointing out that the working environment at Amazon warehouses was unsafe, the employees there were not given adequate breaks, and often underpaid.

DemCast USA Executive Director Nick Knudsen said that ‘tone-deaf’ cannot really describe Bezos’ thanks while adding that Amazon workers, whose unions were barred from formation, subsidised this space trip.

Tone deaf doesn’t begin to describe this @JeffBezos quote.

I’m sure your workers who get blocked from unionizing at every turn are just giddy with excitement about your neato field trip to outer space that they subsidized. https://t.co/pmgCUIp7kp

— Nick Knudsen 🇺🇸 (@NickKnudsenUS) July 21, 2021

Bezoz’s other critics included US senators and representatives who spoke on behalf of the workers and customers. They even pointed out how Amazon paid zero US federal income tax in 2018.

US representative Nydia Velaquez tweeted a media report that underscored that an average Amazon worker got paid $29,000 per annum in 2020 while Bezos salary was 58 times more at $1.68 million in addition to owning 10 percent of Amazon’s shares.

While Jeff Bezos is all over the news for paying to go to space, let’s not forget the reality he has created here on Earth. https://t.co/9CSgpfUXgt

— Rep. Nydia Velazquez (@NydiaVelazquez) July 20, 2021

Critics remembered how Amazon stopped the $2 per hour payment for 2.5 lakh warehouse workers facing hazards at work in June 2020 during the pandemic even as the e-commerce giant announced its highest sales growth in three years.

US senator Elizabeth Warren tweeted that Bezos forgot to thank hardworking Americans, who paid taxes to run their country while Bezos and Amazon paid no taxes.

Jeff Bezos forgot to thank all the hardworking Americans who actually paid taxes to keep this country running while he and Amazon paid nothing. https://t.co/tjOeCWbUA8

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) July 20, 2021

US representative and democrat Earl Blumenauer (also on the tax-writing committee) asked for a law to tax the rich travelling to space (similar to taxes for flights) as private space travel doesn’t deserve tax-free holiday for not creating any scientific value.

I just announced my Securing Protections Against Carbon Emissions (SPACE) Tax Act.

Space travel isn’t a tax-free holiday for the wealthy.

We pay taxes on plane tickets. Billionaires flying into space—producing no scientific value—should do the same, and then some! #SPACETax🚀

— Earl Blumenauer (@repblumenauer) July 20, 2021

Former US secretary of labour Robert Reich, now a professor of public policy at the University of California, tweeted that Bezos had prevented workers’ unions from coming into being. He asked Bezos to pay the workers what they deserved rather than merely thanking them.

Reich pointed out that Bezos’ fun trip cost $2.54 million per minute and Americans were still arguing whether billionaires need to be taxed. He urged Bezos to pay his fair share of taxes before thanking Amazon workers.

Jeff Bezos’ recreational space trip cost $2,540,000 per minute, and we’re still arguing about whether the billionaires need to be taxed.

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) July 21, 2021

Lobbyist and US representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pointed out that Amazon’s delivery drivers did not have health insurance during a pandemic. She said that Amazon is abusing its market power to hurt small businesses.

Yes, Amazon workers did pay for this – with lower wages, union busting, a frenzied and inhumane workplace, and delivery drivers not having health insurance during a pandemic.

And Amazon customers are paying for it with Amazon abusing their market power to hurt small business. https://t.co/7qMgpe8u0M

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) July 20, 2021

Bezos financed his space venture Blue Origin by selling Amazon shares.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

India’s smartphone mkt falls 13% sequentially in Q2 amid 2nd COVID wave: Canalys

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Smartphone shipments in India fell 13 percent to 32.4 million units in the April-June 2021 period over the previous quarter as the second wave of COVID-19 stifled demand, according to research firm Canalys. Given that April-June 2020 had an almost two-month nationwide lockdown (amid the first wave of the pandemic), the year-on-year comparison was “extremely favorable” with shipments up 87 percent, Canalys said in its report.

Xiaomi continued to remain the top player with a 29 percent market share (9.5 million units shipment) in the June 2021 quarter, followed by Samsung stayed in second place with 17 percent share (5.5 million) and Vivo with 5.4 million. Realme overtook Oppo for fourth place, shipping 4.9 million units (15 percent) against Oppo’s 3.8 million (12 percent) in the said period, the report said.

A surge in COVID-19 cases prompted regional restrictions and economic disruption, which limited consumers’ disposable income. “India was taken by surprise by its second wave, as the new COVID variant emerged and took hold quickly. For smartphone vendors, this was a wake-up call, and shows the importance of bolstering both online and offline presences equally,” Canalys Analyst Sanyam Chaurasia said. Signs of recovery did emerge by the end of the second quarter as consumer confidence was boosted by vaccination programmes in key localities.

India will rebound in the second half of 2021, aided by accelerated vaccinations, as well as brands expanding promotional activities and new product releases, Chaurasia said. “But the second half will not see a surge in pent-up demand like last year. The threat of a third wave still looms in India, but as citizen behaviour and industrial operations continue to adapt to pandemic conditions, its impact should be minimal,” he added.

Chaurasia noted that increasing costs will be challenging, amid limited component supply, rising shipping charges and a tough macroeconomic environment. “In the short term, vendors will bear the impact of supply chain disruption and will be conservative about raising prices. But the component shortage also brings another risk of regional deprioritization as brands look to allocate their limited supplies of devices to more lucrative markets, he said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow