Trade Setup for April 1: Nifty eyes Earnings updates, RBI policy for more cues after expiry jitters
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
Banking stocks coming out with business updates in the upcoming week will provide further cues to the Nifty Bank’s trajectory.
The Nifty came within 10 points of making a new record high last Thursday but failed to do so. What followed was a sharp sell-off from the highs of the day during the final 45 minutes of the session, that questioned the entire 400-point jump from the lows that the Nifty witnessed on F&O expiry day.
So how much does one read into the move the Nifty witnessed on Thursday? Most attribute it to rebalancing, last day of the financial year and hence the related adjustments and so on. So does this mean that the Nifty still does not have enough legs to test its previous peaks? Or it was only the expiry related volatility that caused the sharp fall?
Despite that, the index still ended 200 points higher, ensuring a positive expiry and a positive truncated week. The other positive is the fact that the index managed to close above the 22,200 mark, a level it failed to cross for most parts of the March series. The only question is, can it sustain as we step into a new financial year and a new F&O series starting Monday?
The upcoming week will be a data-driven one as companies will start reporting their March quarter business updates, particularly banks and financials, along with certain FMCG companies. Focus will also be on the RBI Monetary Policy between April 3-5 and whether the MPC will provide further clarity on where the interest rates are headed in the country. The second week of April will also see IT companies start reporting their quarterly earnings, and future commentary from them will be keenly awaited.
Both foreign and domestic investors remained net buyers in the cash market on Thursday. The numbers would also be influenced due to block deals seen in stocks like Cartrade Tech, IDFC First Bank and Rategain.
Shrikant Chouhan expects the bullish sentiment to remain intact as long as the Nifty continues to trade above the 20-DMA of 22,150. On the upside, he expects the index to find resistance at 22,500 – 22,650. Only a slip below the 22,150 mark can take the index back down to 22,000 or even 21,950.
The higher top higher bottom setup of the Nifty remains intact albeit with high volatility, observed Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. The next levels on the upside are seen at 22,500 – 22,600 with immediate downside support at 22,250 – 22,200 levels.
LKP Securities’ Rupak De said that there has been a clear breakout from Nifty’s consolidation pattern, signaling further optimism. The index will see resistance at its previous all-time high, which needs to be crossed to see a bigger rally. 22,200 on the downside will be a short-term support.
Similar to the Nifty, the Nifty Bank also witnessed a sharp correction from the day’s high at around 47,440 levels. Despite that 300-point correction, the index managed to close above the 47,000 mark, for the first time in nearly three weeks. Banking stocks coming out with business updates in the upcoming week will provide further cues to the Nifty Bank’s trajectory.
A note from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research says that positions currently in banking stocks appear to be heavily short, which indicate the potential for some short covering-led action and resultant gains between 2% to 2.5% by mid-April. However, the note also advises setting up short positions around levels of 48,400 as significant outperformance is not foreseen.
The MACD indicators on the Nifty Bank are indicating a neutral to positive stance on the Nifty Bank, said Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities. A key level of 48,000 remains an overhead resistance and crossing that may trigger the next leg of the rally, he added.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50’s April futures added 27.7% and 23.1 lakh shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 161.3 points. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s April futures added 1.6% or 52,170 shares in Open Interest on Thursday. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.18 from 1.15 earlier.
Hindustan Copper is out of the F&O ban, while Zee Entertainment remains in the ban.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for April 4 expiry:
On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,300 and 22,600 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s weekly expiry.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
22,500 |
19.1 Lakh Added |
82.9 |
22,600 |
16.1 Lakh Added |
46.95 |
22,300 |
9.1 Lakh Added |
182.75 |
22,400 |
9 Lakh Added |
127.75 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for April 4 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 21,850 to 22,450 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s expiry.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
22,300 |
20.7 Lakh Added |
96.95 |
21,850 |
11.4 Lakh Added |
17.15 |
22,400 |
10.6 Lakh Added |
134.2 |
22,450 |
9.9 Lakh Added |
163.35 |
For the April series, these stocks saw additions of fresh long positions on Thursday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Cipla |
2.01% |
82.96% |
SAIL |
0.26% |
73.67% |
Titan |
1.24% |
47.46% |
Tata Consumer Products |
0.56% |
46.45% |
M&M |
2.18% |
43.01% |
These stocks have seen addition of fresh short positions for the April series, meaning a decline in price but increase in Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Persistent Systems |
-1.27% |
120.50% |
Chambal Fertilisers |
-0.52% |
57.39% |
Atul |
-0.73% |
40.81% |
Deepak Nitrite |
-1.50% |
39.82% |
Shree Cement |
-1.00% |
39.04% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Monday’s trading session:
- Auto Stocks: Companies to report sales numbers for March.
- HDFC Bank: Signs binding term sheet as part of the process to sell 100% equity stake in HDFC Education and Development Services Pvt. Ltd. The stake sale will be done through a Swiss Challenge method, post which the subsequent purchaser and HDFC Bank will sign definitive documents for the said sale.
- Infosys: Expected to get refund of ₹6,329 crore from the Income Tax Department. The company is evaluating the implications of these orders on the financial statements for the quarter.
- Indian Oil Corporation: Signs binding term sheet with Panasonic Energy to manufacture Lithium-Ion Cells in India. In addition to meeting domestic requirements, investments in setting up local manufacturing will set up a complete supply chain ecosystem improving India’s self-reliance, fortifying India’s position in the global energy landscape.
- MOIL: Prices of all Ferro grades of Manganese ore with Manganese content of Mn-44% and above increased by 6% on from March. Prices of all other ferro grades of Manganese ore with content below Mn-44% increased by 3% from March. Prices of all SMGR fines and chemical grades increased by 3% on the prevailing prices.
- Newgen Software: Executed an agreement for a Trade Finance Project with a customer. Aggregate value of the purchase order is ₹49.84 crore. The project is to be executed over a three-year period. Additionally, the company has also won orders for a Trade Finance Solution from an international customer worth $1.1 million. It has also received the Letter of Intent for purchase and implementation of customer onboarding, corporate finance origination system and business process automation system for a five year period worth $2.07 million.
- RVNL: Emerges as the lowest bidder for three projects. One worth ₹148.26 crore, the other for $7.15 million and the third one for ₹95.95 crore. The orders are from South Eastern Railway, North Eastern Frontier Railway and from the Energy Development Corporation.
- Garden Reach Shipbuilders: Annual turnover for financial year 2024 crosses ₹3,400 crore, which is the highest ever in the company’s history. On a year-on-year basis, the turnover grew by 33%.
- PG Electroplast: Wholly-owned subsidiary PG Technoplast becomes the first company to get approval for disbursement of PLI incentives for AC components. The disbursement amounts to ₹15 crore.
- Adani Total Gas: Wholly-owned subsidiary Adani TotalEnergies Biomass Ltd., said it has commissioned operations at Phase 1 of its Barsana Biogas Plant in Uttar Pradesh with an overall capacity of 600 Tonnes Per Day Of Feedstock. Project cost for all three phases would be in excess of ₹200 crore.
- Lupin: Gets USFDA nod for Eslicarbazepine Acetate tablets of generic Aptiom. The drug will be manufactured at the company’s Pithampur unit and Lupin could be eligible for 180-day exclusivity. Estimated sales of the drug are at $354 million.
- Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys: Declares ₹15 per share as special dividend. Board also approves withdrawal of scheme of amalgamation of Utkal Coal into the company and acquisition of remaining shares of Utkal Coal to make it a wholly-owned subsidiary. Board also approved write-off of doubtful interest income on a loan issued to Utkal Coal worth ₹111 crore and accounts for an impairment provision against the investment made. The company will also issue ₹200 crore into the Ethanol business and its allied by-products.
- Veranda Learning Solutions: Acquired 50% equity in Tapasya Educational Solutions through its subsidiary, valuing Tapasya at ₹240 crore. The acquisition to bolster Veranda’s presence in Telangana and Karnataka.
- Trident: Existing capacity of bath linen business at Budhni in Madhya Pradesh has been enhanced from the existing 622 looms with the addition of another 42 looms. The overall capex of ₹132 crore was funded via term loans and internal accruals. Existing capacity utilisation was 63%.
- Canara Bank: To dilute 13% stake in Canara Robeco Asset Management Company via the IPO. The stake dilution is subject to approval of the Reserve Bank of India and the Department of Financial Services.
- Torrent Power: Gets Letter of Award from Torrent Power Ltd. Distribution unit to set up a 150 MW (RE Power) grid-connected wind solar hybrid projects under the greenshoe option. The project cost is worth ₹1,825 crore.
- Landmark Cars: Set to expand brand offerings by adding Kia India to its portfolio. The company will now represent 10 brands across 10 Indian states. The dealership will include sales and aftersales services of Kia cars in Hyderabad.
- Aurionpro Solutions: Board approves allotment of 9.02 lakh equity shares worth ₹200 crore to non-promoters at ₹2,215 each. Varanium India Opportunity, Steadview Capital among those issued shares.
- Macrotech Developers: To acquire 50% stake in Siddhivinayak Realties for ₹250 crore.
- Metro Brands: Extends partnership with Crocs India for continued growth in the India business.
- SBI Life Insurance: Gets tax demand worth over ₹5,000 crore from the Faceless Assessment Unit of the Income Tax Department on March 30, 2024. The company said that the tax demand and applicable interest has been calculated incorrectly and the revised demand should only be around ₹301 crore.
- Indian Overseas Bank: Gets Income Tax demand worth ₹620 crore on account of certain additions and disallowances made for annual year 2022-2023.
- EIH: To invest ₹421 crore to construct Oberoi Luxury Resort at Cavelossim Beach in South Goa.
- MAS Financial: Approves investment of ₹15 crore in subsidiary company Rural Housing & Mortgage Finance Ltd. to address working capital needs and expansion of business activities.
- CreditAccess Grameen: Completed a direct assignment transaction worth ₹555.54 crore in March. The entire direct assignment pool qualifies for priority sector treatment as per RBI Guidelines. For the quarter, the company raised total funds worth ₹5,885 crore through term loans and direct assignment.
- Adani Green Energy: Wholly-owned stepdown subsidiary has operationalised an incremental 163 MW of solar power projects at Khavda in Gujarat. An aggregate of 225 MW of solar power project has been operationalised by AGE25AL.
- HG Infra: Enters into EPC Contracts with Norangdesar Solar Developer Pvt. Ltd. and Rasisar Solar Developer Pvt. Ltd. for Solar Power Plants. Both contracts need to be executed within 9 months and are worth ₹36 crore and ₹28 crore respectively. The orders classify as a related party transaction.
- Tejas Networks: Received balance incentive payment of 15% worth ₹4.88 crore for financial year 2023 under the Production-Linked Incentive Scheme for Telecom and Networking Products.
- NACL Industries: Two wholly-owned subsidiaries begin commercial production at their respective manufacturing plants situated in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Both units are eligible for a concessional income tax rate of 15% till perpetuity.
- Shankara Building Products: Opened new fulfilment centers under the ‘Shankara Buildpro’ brand at Aurangabad, Davangere, Chikmangaluru, Ramnagara and Mandya. It will also close stores in Thiruvalla, Palghat, Vanastalipura and Vasco. The net store count after these measures stands at 92.
- Cantabil Retail: Opened five new showrooms at different locations across India in March, taking the total number of stores to 534.
- NTPC: Operations of NTPC Barauni Thermal Power Station Stage – I, comprising of two units of 110 MW each will be permanently discontinued from March 31.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow