Union Budget 2024 Trade Setup: Nifty heads into the big event with optimism but 21,800 is key
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
The recovery in Wednesday’s trading session could also be attributed to the buying by both foreign and domestic investors in the cash market. Foreign investors, in particular, turned in a buy figure after being net sellers over the last few trading sessions.
Its been a topsy-turvy start to the Nifty 50 for the February F&O series. The index began the series on a strong note, before giving up more than half of those gains on Tuesday. The mid-week session looked like one of consolidation until the first half, but the index recovered nearly 300 points from the day’s low of 21,449 to end close to the 21,750 mark.
All eyes are now on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman who will present the Union Budget on Thursday. While this is a Vote on Account or an interim budget, the street is not expecting any major big bang announcements, but a clear direction on policy and the road ahead would surely be welcomed by market participants.
Thursday’s session, aside of the Union Budget, will also be an event-heavy one. Companies will report their auto sales figures for the month of January, while other macro data such as the manufacturing PMI will also be reported on the first day of the new month. Thursday will also be the weekly options expiry of the Nifty 50 contracts.
The recovery in Wednesday’s trading session could also be attributed to the buying by both foreign and domestic investors in the cash market. Foreign investors, in particular, turned in a buy figure after being net sellers over the last few trading sessions.
Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One believes that some positive announcements during the Budget could propel the Nifty beyond the 21,850 mark, which will pave the way for the index to retest the mark of 22,100 on the upside. On the flip side, a break below 21,400 and 21,200 is likely to trigger a substantial sell-off.
There is a high probability of negation of the previous bearish chart patterns of lower highs and lower lows on Nifty 50’s daily charts and result in the formation of higher highs and higher lows, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He expects a decisive breakout beyond the 21,800 levels soon but expects Thursday’s trading session to see heightened volatility.
The Nifty formed a piercing line pattern on the Nifty’s daily chart, following a dark cloud cover in the previous trading session, observed Rupak De of LKP Securities. This complete reversal patterns indicate a highly volatile market sentiment. Support for the Nifty at the lower end is seen at 21,500, while a decisive breakout above 21,750 may take the index back to 22,000, he added.
The Nifty Bank has been the weaker index when compared to the Nifty, but managed to outperform on Wednesday, when its options contracts had their weekly expiry. The index closed within touching distance of the 46,000 mark but is still 5.5% away from its record high of 48,636. A thing that the bulls may take heart from is that the index has been making higher highs over the last four days.
Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said that the Nifty Bank now faces resistance at the 46,500 mark and a decisive break above this level can potentially reverse the entire trend for the index. “On the downside, the immediate lower end support is at 45,700 and a breach of those levels may lead to a resurgence of bearish control in the market,” he added.
Despite the surge on the Nifty Bank, the RSI remains below the average line, said Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities, adding that the 20-DMA is a resistance for the index. “Market participants anticipate a decisive directional shift only if the 56,600 range is taken out,” he added.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50’s February futures shed 0.1% or 7,750 shares in Open Interest on Wednesday. They are now trading at a premium of 82.9 points from 108.4 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s February futures shed 5.9% or 1.93 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is now at 0.9 from 0.82 earlier.
SAIL and Zee Entertainment are now in the F&O ban.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for February 1 expiry:
For Thursday’s weekly options expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 21,800 and 22,000 have seen addition in Open Interest.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
21,900 |
24.78 Lakh Added |
64.9 |
22,000 |
9.48 Lakh Added |
42.85 |
21,950 |
8.66 Lakh Added |
52.55 |
21,800 |
5.82 Lakh Added |
98.2 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for February 1 expiry:
On the put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 21,500 and 21,700 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s expiry.
Strike |
OI Change |
Premium |
21,500 |
39.36 Lakh Added |
44.9 |
21,700 |
19.8 Lakh Added |
112.1 |
21,600 |
14.68 Lakh Added |
72.45 |
These stocks added fresh long positions on Wednesday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Dr Reddy’s |
4.33% |
18.59% |
Max Financial |
0.93% |
12.14% |
Coromandel International |
0.42% |
9.40% |
Gujarat Gas |
4.70% |
7.37% |
SAIL |
1.11% |
6.91% |
These stocks added fresh short positions on Wednesday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:
Stock |
Price Change |
OI Change |
Pidilite |
-1.62% |
12.91% |
Chola Finance |
-2.49% |
9.15% |
Larsen & Toubro |
-4.41% |
7.89% |
Titan |
-1.21% |
6.94% |
ABB India |
-1.61% |
6.21% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Thursday’s trading session:
- Paytm: The Reserve Bank of India has directed Paytm Payments Bank to stop onboarding of new customers with immediate effect under Section 35A of the Banking Regulation Act, 1948. No new deposits, wallet top-ups or credit transactions to take place from February 29, but customers can use up existing balances. Nodal Accounts of Paytm and Paytm Payments to be terminated. Sources also tell CNBC-TV18 that the RBI action took place after it observed deficiencies in Paytm’s technology and customer redressal mechanism, KYC processes, monitoring and alert systems, transaction monitoring at Paytm Payments Bank. In a clarification to the exchanges late last night, the company said that it sees an impact of ā¹300 crore to ā¹500 crore to its annual EBITDA in the worst case scenario.
- Religare Enterprises: In confirmation of a CNBC-TV18 newsbreak, the Burman family has acquired an additional stake of nearly 4% in Religare, taking their total stake past 25.18%. Mohit Burman told CNBC-TV18 that they remain committed to the Religare acquisition and that they await approvals necessary to complete the Open Offer. In case the Open Offer is successful, the Burman family will own more than 51% in the company.
- Dixon Technologies: Net profit of ā¹97 crore falls short of the CNBC-TV18 estimate of ā¹104 crore. Revenue doubles year-on-year aided by a low base but declines quarter-on-quarter. Mobile business contributes nearly two-thirds of the revenue and also sees a decline on a sequential basis.
- Godrej Consumer Products: Solid operational performance with sharp margin expansion. LatAm currency impact weakens consolidated revenue. Revenue of ā¹3,660 crore was higher than the poll of ā¹3,563 crore. EBITDA margin of 23% also higher than poll estimates of 22.4%. Domestic organic volume growth of 5% compared to poll expectations of 4-5% growth. Consolidated India volume growth of 12% versus poll estimates of 11-12%.
- Shree Cement: Sales volumes in December quarter in-line with expectations at 8.89 MT. EBITDA beat due to lower costs as power and fuel costs decline 14% from last year, while freight costs decline 7% year-on-year. The company has also announced an interim dividend of ā¹50 per share.
- JSPL: December quarter net profit at ā¹1,928 crore compared to a CNBC-TV18 poll of ā¹945 crore. Revenue at ā¹11,701.3 crore is below estimates of ā¹12,178 crore. EBITDA up 19.6% year-on-year to ā¹2,842.5 crore, higher than estimates of ā¹2,347 crore. EBITDA margin of 24.3%, higher than estimates of 19.3% and also higher than 19.1% last year. Benefits from captive thermal coal mines in India starts materialising resulting in lower raw material costs, which contributed to the better EBITDA.
- Mankind Pharma: Revenue up 25% to ā¹2,606.9 crore, while EBITDA rises 39% to ā¹606.5 crore. EBITDA margin at 23.3% from 20.9% last year. Net profit rises by 55% to ā¹459.8 crore from ā¹295.7 crore last year. Domestic revenue up 20% year-on-year to ā¹2,400 crore. Export revenue up 118% from last year to ā¹207 crore. Net cash balance at ā¹2,756 crore.
- Cochin Shipyard: Bags an order from a European client for the design and construction of a hybrid service operation vessel (SOV). The project cost is nearly ā¹500 crore and the vessel is to be delivered in 2026.
- Divgi TorqTransfer Systems: Wins orders worth ā¹212.1 crore from two marquee North American manufacturers of Automotive Transmissions over a five-year period. Annual value of these orders is approximately ā¹42.5 crore. Management said this helps in expansion of product portfolio.
- Glenmark Pharma: Partners with Pfizer to launch Abrocitinib in India. The drug is used for the treatment of Atopic Dermatitis, also known as Eczema. The drug is approved by both the USFDA and the EU’s EMA.
What Are Global Cues Indicating?
Asian markets have opened mixed after Fed chair Jerome Powell dashed all hopes of a rate cut in March.
The Nikkei 225 and the Topix in Japan are both down 0.5% in early trading.
On the flip side, the Kospi in South Korea is up 0.5%, while the Kosdaq remains unchanged.
Futures on the Hang Seng are indicating a positive start to the trading day.
US markets lost ground overnight post the Fed announcement and some disappointing results from Alphabet and Microsoft. The S&P 500 fell the most since September, while the Nasdaq declined over 2%.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow