Month: August 2016

China’s yuan firms as dollar slumps globally

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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China’s yuan firmed on Monday after the dollar tumbled in global markets on weak US growth data.

But the Chinese market still saw robust dollar demand, while major state banks were suspected of selling dollars on behalf of the central bank to help support the yuan, traders said.

“Investors still believe the yuan will depreciate by the end of this year, possibly to 6.8/dollar,” said a senior trader at a European bank in Shanghai.

He said that “sustained” dollar demand in the market despite the yuan’s recent rebound, while the central bank “was suspected to be offering dollar liquidity to keep the yuan’s value under its control.”

The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.6277 per dollar prior to market open, firmer than the previous fix of 6.6511. The spot market opened at 6.6340 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.6346 at midday, -55 pips away from the previous late session close and 0.10 percent away from the midpoint.

Since the yuan slipped to the psychologically important 6.7/dollar level on July 18, it has had a mild rebound of 0.7 percent as the central bank stepped in to control the pace of its depreciation.

The Chinese currency has still depreciated 2.2 percent so far this year, partly because of how the world’s second largest economy is struggling to keep growth rates from falling.

In global markets, the dollar on Monday pulled away from lows after it lost 1.3 percent on Friday, hit by disappointing US growth figures while the yen pared some its large gains after the Bank of Japan’s smaller-than-expected stimulus steps.

The Thomson Reuters/HKEX Global CNH index .RXYH, which tracks the offshore yuan against a basket of currencies on a daily basis, stood at 95.55, weaker than the previous day’s 95.85.

The offshore yuan was trading -0.05 percent away from the onshore spot at 6.6379 per dollar.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

China Caixin July manufacturing PMI at 50.6 versus 48.6 in June

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Manufacturing activity in China ticked lower in July, according to an official survey released on Monday.

The July official PMI was slightly under forecasts; a poll of analysts by Reuters had predicted a 50.0 reading.

China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, has shown signs of stabilizing after a torrid summer last year that saw a hefty devaluation in the yuan and an acceleration of capital outflows.

From March to May, the survey logged results above the key 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. In the seven months before March, the survey had remained stuck below 50.

The latest numbers are likely to trigger a debate on whether more monetary support can be expected from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

Citi’s chief China economist Liu Li Gang told CNBC’s Squawk Box that the Chinese central bank was likely to cut the reserve ratio requirement (RRR), which is the amount of cash banks are required to hold.

This was because second-quarter capital outflow was still substantial, Liu said, and an RRR cut would inject permanent liquidity into the economy. The house had a 49.8 forecast for China’s official PMI figure.

“Even though we had quite steady second quarter growth, underlying economic fundamentals cannot mask very sluggish growth in the second half,” Liu said.

China’s economy logged a 6.7 percent expansion on-year in the three months through June.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow