SBI raises ₹10,000 crore via tier 2 bonds at 7.8% coupon rate
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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This is the first Tier 2 bond issuance by the bank in the current financial year. The bank has been rated AAA with stable outlook from CRISIL and India Ratings & Research Private Limited for these instruments.
State Bank of India (SBI), country’s largest lender, on Wednesday, November 1, raised ₹10,000 crore at a coupon rate of 7.81% through its first Basel III compliant Tier 2 Bond for the current financial year. The bonds are issued for a tenor of 15 years, with the first call option after 10 years.
The issue attracted an overwhelming response from the investors with bids of ₹15,907 crore and was oversubscribed almost 4 times against the base issue size of ₹4,000 crore with 98 bids, SBI said.
Dinesh Khara, Chairman SBI expressed that “wider participation and heterogeneity of bids demonstrated the trust investors place in the country’s largest Bank.”
This is the first Tier 2 bond issuance by the bank in the current financial year. The bank has been rated AAA with stable outlook from CRISIL and India Ratings & Research Private Limited for these instruments.
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Borrowing costs on foreign loans to get costlier as global bond yields rise
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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India’s benchmark bond yield has hovered around 7.3% for the last few days whereas the US yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007. That has resulted shrinking the spread between the two notes to 237 basis points (bps), levels last seen in May 2006.
With the yield on US-10-year bond surpassing the psychological 5% mark, domestic companies that opt for foreign currency loans are likely to see higher debt servicing costs going forward.
The strengthening dollar and surging crude oil prices add fuel to the fire. While the rupee has depreciated 1.6% against the US dollar over the past three months, oil prices have surged 13.2% during the same period.
While foreign-currency-denominated borrowings normally tend to be cheaper compared to local currency loans, the narrowing spread between the US and Indian bond yields will bring down cost advantage for many of them.
For instance, the finance cost as a percentage of total debt for BSE500 companies stood at 7.7% at the end of FY23, against 6.6% for companies with some overseas borrowings on their books.
The gross borrowings for BSE500 companies (excluding banks and financials) increased 11% year-on-year to ₹33.04 lakh crore in FY23, data sourced from Ace Equity database shows. Of them, nearly 70 companies had foreign loans on their books, totalling ₹4.4 lakh crore. Additionally, the foreign loans of these 70 companies account for 22.2% of their combined borrowings, which stood at ₹19.6 lakh crore as of March 2023.
The companies with the highest foreign loans in absolute terms include IOCL, ONGC, TATA Motors, NTPC, and Adani Ports & SEZ, among others. While the foreign currency loans account for more than 80% of Jubilant Pharmova and Oil India’s total borrowings in FY23, other companies like Adani Ports and SEZ, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and UPL also have borrowed more than 60% from abroad as of March 2023.
Source: Ace Equity
India’s benchmark bond yield has hovered around 7.3% for the past few days whereas the US yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007. That has resulted in shrinking the spread between the two notes to 237 basis points (bps), levels last seen in May 2006.
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Ten-year treasury yield breaches 5% for first time since 2007
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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The rise in the global bond benchmark above the psychological level of 5% underscores investors’ assumption that the Fed and fellow central banks are unlikely to cut borrowing costs quickly amid sticky inflation, even in the event that they soon call a halt to rate hikes.
The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years, propelled by expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates and that the government will further boost bond sales to cover widening deficits.
The yield rose nine basis points to 5.01%, the highest since 2007.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested last week that central bankers are inclined to hold rates steady at their November meeting, but remain open to hiking again if a resilient economy fans inflation risks.
Also undermining bonds are mounting concerns regarding the sustainability of the government’s burgeoning budget deficits, which will likely force the US Treasury to keep increasing the supply of bills and bonds. Having boosted the size of its quarterly bond sales for the first time in 2 1/2 years in August,
Secretary Janet Yellen’s department is now readying its November refunding.
The double-whammy of the Fed and Treasury has crushed the hopes of many that 2023 would prove to be the “year of the bond.” More recently, it’s proved powerful enough to offset haven flows into US debt as the Israel-Hamas conflict reignited geopolitical worries.
“While levels look attractive in the near term, investors are likely to continue waiting for catalysts (such as geopolitical risks or slowing data) rather than catching the falling knife amid technical weakness,” Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly McGown, strategists at TD Securities wrote in a recent note. “This could keep rate volatility extremely high in the near-term.”
Still, 10-year treasuries above 5% are a buy for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which sees yields overshooting the firm’s fair value above that level.
Psychological level
The rise in the global bond benchmark above the psychological level of 5% underscores investors’ assumption that the Fed and fellow central banks are unlikely to cut borrowing costs quickly amid sticky inflation, even in the event that they soon call a halt to rate hikes.
Another emerging threat to treasuries is the changing composition of the market. The Fed is reducing its bond holdings via quantitative tightening, while the holdings of foreign governments such as China’s are waning. In their place, hedge funds, mutual funds, insurers and pensions have stepped in.
The fact that they are less price-agnostic than their predecessors is leading to the revival of the the so-called term premium for bond pricing. That’s where investors seek higher yields to compensate for the risk of holding longer-dated debt.
The treasury market remains on course for an unprecedented third year of annual losses. Higher borrowing costs may ultimately serve as a brake on the US economy, helping the Fed’s inflation fight. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage soared to around 8% in recent weeks, while the cost of servicing credit card bills, student loans and other debts has also climbed as market rates rose.
Powell echoed some of his colleagues by saying a sustained rise in yields could “at the margin” lessen the pressure for tighter monetary policy.
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With US bond yields set to surpass equity earnings yields, should investors jump out of stocks and into bonds? Not really.
In 2008, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 dropped to 0.8%. US 10-year bonds then offered a yield of over 2.8%, suggesting a spread of 200 basis points. If you had jumped out of stocks into bonds then, you would have cursed yourself. Because by 2012, stocks had gained over 70% and were still available at a yield of well over 6%, while the yields on bonds were still near 2.2%.
This was because a sharp drop in earnings led to a big dip in yields, but a swift recovery led to a big leap in profits driving yields sharply down. It was during this period that the price-to-earnings (PE) of the S&P 500 hit a peak of over 120 times before plunging to nearly 13 times. This, of course, was an exceptional period, but it pays to keep this phenomenon in mind.
S&P 500 Price and Price to Earnings Ratio
But let’s take a closer look at how the S&P 500 and US bond yields have behaved.
YIELDS AND EQUITIES DO BOND
US bond yields and equities do tend to influence each other to an extent. A look at the correlation between US 10-year bond yields and the S&P 500 since 1990 reveals a moderate negative correlation of 0.67. What this suggests is that when bond yields rise, there is a likelihood that equity valuations may be negatively impacted. So, the common refrain of investors moving money from equities to bonds when yields rise does have some empirical basis.
That said, should you be worried when bond yields surpass equity earnings yields?
S&P 500 versus US 10-year Treasury bond yield
THE EQUITY-BOND YIELD EQUATION
Many are pointing to the surge in the US yields and its surpassing earnings yield on equities as a significant development. Some are suggesting this could have ominous consequences.
True, the development is significant because US earnings yields have remained well above the US 10-year bond yield since 2003. That’s a good 20-year phenomenon. But during the period from 1994 to 2002, US bond yields traded above the earnings yield. We looked at both these periods for pointers to what could transpire.
Interestingly, in 1994, the earnings yield spread over the 10-year bond yield was a negative 90 basis points. In 2002, it was a negative 70 basis points. In 1994, the 10-year bond offered a yield of 5.65% and the S&P 500 over the period delivered a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%. So, while the spread was negative, it wasn’t as if equities didn’t offer any returns, but one could argue that the differential in returns didn’t justify the risk of being in equities.
What’s also interesting is that during this period, the PE increased at a CAGR of 5.2%, suggesting a lower contribution from earnings growth than PE expansion.
In contrast, during the post-financial crisis period starting in 2010, when the earnings yield spread was a positive 200 basis points, equities delivered a CAGR of over 11% with only a 2.5% CAGR in PE. This suggests strong returns compared to the then bond yield of 3.9%.
Clearly, buying into equities when the yield was an attractive 5.7% also helped generate attractive returns—given the average yield of 4.5% and a median yield of 4.4%. So, buying into equities when spreads are positive is a good idea, but that itself isn’t good enough.
S&P 500 Yield vs US 10-year Treasure bond yield
THE IMPONDERABLES
It is important to appreciate that bond yields and earnings are both dynamic, moving numbers and basing investment decisions purely on yield differentials isn’t a sound strategy. Also important to understand is what parameters you are comparing. If you consider yields on a 10-year US bond, you are looking at fixed returns over a long period. Hence, looking at earnings yield for just the next four quarters may not be a fair like-to-like comparison. What if there is an acceleration in earnings during the period? That can make the yield on the discounted value look much more attractive.
In the present context, while undoubtedly buying into bonds does seem like a good idea to lock into yields near 5%, assuming interest rates don’t go much higher, a softer-than-expected economic landing—averting a recession—could also spell an upward revision in earnings estimates, altering the yield differential.
With earnings yield for the S&P 500 presently a tad below historical mean and median levels, a further dip in equities could throw up opportunities for investments in growth stocks for discerning investors. So, buy bonds for sure, but don’t give up on equities because the yields could change quite swiftly if things go right. Also, an inversion in yield spreads doesn’t necessarily signal a slide in equity values—we’ve lived through this before.
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CAG transfers 3 auditors who unearthed alleged irregularities in central schemes, Congress demands reversal
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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The transferred officers, identified as Atoorva Sinha and Dattaprasad Suryakant Shirsa from the Indian Audit and Accounts Service, were in charge of the audit reports scrutinising the Dwarka Expressway project and the Ayushman Bharat scheme, as per a report in The Wire. The third auditor, Ashok Sinha, had initiated the audit of the Ayushman Bharat scheme.
The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has reportedly transferred three auditors who were responsible for unearthing alleged irregularities in the Centre’s flagship Bharatmala and Ayushman Bharat schemes. The controversial transfers came to light through a report byThe Wire, drawing sharp criticism from the Congress.
The audit reports, which shed light on potential irregularities within the schemes, were presented in Parliament this August. However, it has been revealed that the transfer orders were issued on September 12, as reported by The Wire.
The transferred officers, identified as Atoorva Sinha and Dattaprasad Suryakant Shirsa from the Indian Audit and Accounts Service, were in charge of the audit reports scrutinising the Dwarka Expressway project and the Ayushman Bharat scheme. The third auditor, Ashok Sinha, had initiated the audit of the Ayushman Bharat scheme.
Atoorva Sinha, who had been appointed as the principal director of audit infrastructure in Delhi earlier in March, has been reassigned as the accountant general in Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram, according to The Wire.
The CAG’s reports brought to light irregularities in various aspects, including the Bharatmala project, the construction of Dwarka Expressway, violations of toll regulations by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), the Ayushman Bharat Scheme, and alleged undue advantages granted to contractors in the Ayodhya Development Project.
The Congress party, in a strong reaction to these transfers, accused the government of intimidating CAG officers who had exposed “corruption” within various schemes. Jairam Ramesh, Congress General Secretary, demanded an immediate revocation of the transfer orders and a return of the officers to their original positions within the CAG.
The Modi government operates mafia style under a cloak of silence and intimidation. If anyone exposes its modus operandi of corruption, they are threatened or removed. The latest victims are three officers of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG),…
Ramesh asserted that this move was consistent with what he described as the modus operandi of the Modi government, accusing it of threatening and removing individuals who expose corruption.
He further stated, “The Modi government operates mafia style under a cloak of silence and intimidation. If anyone exposes its modus operandi of corruption, they are threatened or removed.”
The CAG report uncovered widespread irregularities within infrastructure and social programmes. It exposed a shocking 1400% cost increase and inconsistencies in the tendering process for the Dwarka Expressway. Additionally, it revealed a diversion of Rs 3,600 crore from highway projects, flawed bidding practices, and a substantial 60% cost increase in the Bharatmala scheme, he claimed.
“Not only that, an audit of the Ayushman Bharat scheme showed lakhs of claims made to dead patients and at least 7.5 lakh beneficiaries linked to a single mobile number,” he also claimed.
Ramesh, a prominent figure in the Congress party, alleged that the reassignment of the three CAG officers responsible for investigating the Ayushman Bharat and Dwarka Expressway irregularities was a deliberate move to conceal apparent corruption within the Modi government, even though the CAG is an independent body.
With inputs from PTI
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On October 6th, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised the market by unveiling an Open Market Operations (OMO) bond sales program. This unexpected move caused a significant uptick in the yield of Indian 10-year bonds, pushing it from its previous closing rate of 7.21% to 7.35%.
Adding to this financial development, JPMorgan Chase & Co. made an announcement regarding the inclusion of Indian government bonds (IGBs) in its benchmark Emerging Market index, starting from June 28, 2024. According to Morgan Stanley, this inclusion is anticipated to attract inflows of approximately $40 billion into India.
Joydeep Sen, a Corporate Trainer & Author, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, expressed optimism about the impact of this news on debt funds, emphasising that longer maturity debt funds would likely see the greatest benefits compared to their shorter-term counterparts as the yields are likely to ease going ahead.
For those considering fresh investments in debt funds, Sen recommended opening new folios to take advantage of taxation benefits.
Notably, in the Budget of 2023, the government introduced changes to the taxation of capital gains from debt mutual funds. Government announced that from April 1, 2023, these gains will be categorised as short-term capital gains. Additionally, debt funds held for more than three years will no longer qualify for indexation benefits and will no longer be eligible for the 20% tax rate.
RBI’s OMO bond sales program to negatively impact NBFCs
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Following the RBI announcement, the yield on the Indian 10-year bond witnessed a notable increase, climbing to 7.35% from its previous closing rate of 7.21%. RBI clarified that the sale of bonds will be conducted through auctions rather than screen-based transactions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate and policy stance unchanged. The banking regulator, however, took the market by surprise with the announcement of a bond sales program known as Open Market Operations (OMO).
Following the RBI announcement, the yield on the Indian 10-year bond witnessed a notable increase, climbing to 7.35% from its previous closing rate of 7.21%. RBI clarified that the sale of bonds will be conducted through auctions rather than screen-based transactions.
This move is expected to have a negative impact on non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), as it is anticipated to significantly increase their cost of capital.
Lakshmi Iyer, the CEO of Investment & Strategy at Kotak Alternate Asset Managers, now anticipates yields to first consolidate and then rise again. She also advises caution in the equity markets, as the cost of borrowing is likely to remain at elevated levels.
“Bond yields rising from 7.11% to 7.35%, is a massive bump up, I think now the yields will have to consolidate probably come down 5-10 basis points and go up that is how it’s going to be. If you try to tie this into the larger markets, from an equity market standpoint, till the time the bond yields or sovereign bond yields stabilise, it’s very difficult to see the corporate bond yields come down. And that clearly means that the cost of borrowing is going to remain at elevated levels. One will have to take that into consideration when you are deploying money into the equity markets as well. I don’t think markets have still fathom that so I think there needs to be some bit of caution, even on the equity markets,” Iyer said.
Watch the accompanying video for the entire discussion.
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SBI raises Rs 10,000 crore in oversubscribed infrastructure bond issue at 7.49% coupon rate
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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The bonds were subscribed over five times the original base issue size of Rs 4,000 crore. In light of the enthusiastic response, SBI decided to accept Rs 10,000 crore at the coupon rate of 7.49 percent, payable annually. Shares of State Bank of India ended at Rs 598.10, up by Rs 9.80, or 1.67 percent, on the BSE.
The country’s biggest bank, State Bank of India (SBI), on Friday (September 22) said it has raised Rs 10,000 crore at a coupon rate of 7.49 percent through its fourth infrastructure bond offering.
The bonds attracted an overwhelming response from investors, with bids totalling Rs 21,045.10 crore. This substantial oversubscription exceeded the base issue size of Rs 4,000 crore by more than five times, underscoring the strong demand for such investment instruments.
The bidding process reflected a diverse pool of investors, including provident funds, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and corporate entities, showcasing broad market participation and a spectrum of investor interests.
The funds raised through these bonds will be channeled into bolstering long-term resources dedicated to funding critical infrastructure projects and the affordable housing segment, contributing to the nation’s development and economic growth.
In light of the enthusiastic response, SBI has decided to accept Rs 10,000 crore at the coupon rate of 7.49 percent, payable annually. This rate represents a spread of 12 basis points (bps) over the corresponding FBIL G-Sec par curve.
This achievement follows the bank’s previous successful issuance of long-term bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore on August 1, 2023, at a spread of 13 bps over the corresponding FBIL G-Sec par curve.
SBI enjoys a pristine AAA credit rating with a stable outlook from all domestic credit rating agencies for these financial instruments. The current offering adds to the bank’s outstanding long-term bonds portfolio, which now stands at Rs 39,718 crore.
“This issuance is also very significant as the bank has been successful in raising long-duration bonds successively at a finer spread. We believe that this issuance may help in developing a long-term bond curve and encourage other banks to issue bonds of longer tenor,” the bank added.
Shares of State Bank of India ended at Rs 598.10, up by Rs 9.80, or 1.67 percent, on the BSE.
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Inclusion of bonds in JPMorgan EM index will bring down cost of capital for India, says Sanjeev Sanyal
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Sanjeev Sanyal stated that the inclusion of Indian bonds in the JPMorgan EM index will have a profound impact on the country’s economy. It is estimated that this inclusion will bring about approximately $24 billion worth of inflows into India.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has announced that it will include Indian government bonds (IGBs) in its benchmark Emerging Market index, marking a pivotal moment in India’s journey towards becoming an integral part of the global economy.
Sanjeev Sanyal, a Member of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister, hailed this development as a momentous step forward. He emphasised, “The inclusion of Indian bonds in the JPMorgan EM index is one more form of inflow and access to capital that we have. In the long run, it positions India as part of the global economy, it lowers the cost of capital in India both for the government and overall as well. So, in that sense, the inclusion is good for bringing down the cost of capital in India.”
The journey toward this historic inclusion will begin on June 28, 2024, with JPMorgan gradually integrating IGBs into its benchmark index over a span of ten months, culminating on March 31, 2025. During this period, the weightage of IGBs in the index will increase by one percent each month. According to JPMorgan, India is expected to reach a maximum weight of 10 percent in the Global Diversified index (GBI-EM GD).
Sanyal stated that the inclusion of Indian bonds in the JPMorgan EM index will have a profound impact on the country’s economy. It is estimated that this inclusion will bring about approximately $24 billion worth of inflows into India. However, Sanyal highlighted that this is not the only index; there are several other indices like the Barclays, FTSE, etc. So, over time, if this becomes generalised and we become a normalised part of the global indices, then this can account for as much as $40 billion worth of inflows, Sanyal added.
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India says it did not offer any tax incentive to get its bond included in JPMorgan’s EM index
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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As JPMorgan Chase & Co. has announced it will include Indian government bonds (IGBs) into its benchmark Emerging Market index from June 2024, a government official told CNBC-TV18 the inclusion has happened without any tax incentive.
After JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced it will include Indian government bonds (IGBs) into its benchmark Emerging Market index from June 2024, a government official on September 22 told CNBC-TV18 that the inclusion has happened without any tax incentive.
“India is expected to reach the maximum weight of 10 percent in the Global Diversified index (GBI-EM GD),” JPMorgan said in a note, adding that the inclusion will begin in a staggered manner from June 28 to March 31, 2025, implying an inclusion of 1 percent weightage per month.
Following the development, Economic Affairs Secretary, Ajay Seth, said JPMorgan’s move is a welcome one and shows its confidence in the Indian economy.
“We will discuss the implications…we don’t look into the future…It is their decision and they have indicated what percentage they are looking for,” he said, adding that these are market forces and the flow will come out of that.
Currently, 23 Indian government bonds (IGBs) with a combined notional value of $330 billion are index eligible, the JPMorgan note said.
The GBI-EM GD accounts for nearly $213 billion of the estimated $236 billion benchmarked into the GBI-EM family of indices.
India was the last big emerging market that had not joined others like China on the global debt indices.
(India’s) index inclusion follows “the Indian government’s introduction of the FAR program in 2020 and substantive market reforms for aiding foreign portfolio investments,” the team led by the firm’s global head of index research, Gloria Kim, said in a statement. Almost three-quarters of benchmark investors surveyed were in favor of India’s inclusion in to the index, they said.
The move comes at a time when expectations that India may be added to international gauges had been rising in the recent months as providers looked to diversify index constituents. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had seen it drop off indexes, while China’s worsening economic woes have taken the shine off the country’s sovereign debt.
Harsha Upadhyaya, President & CIO – Equity, Kotak Mahindra AMC, said it’s a very positive move for the Indian economy and fundraising. “The cost of funds will go down and availability of resources will go up for our corporates and our government…we are likely to see upwards of $20 billion in the first year itself. So, it’s going to reduce the depreciation risk on the currency, and will make our economy more resilient. So definitely a long term positive.”
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