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Emerging markets: the comeback kid of 2014?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Emerging markets are getting a beating right now, but the tattered asset class could be poised to become the “comeback kid” of 2014, some analysts say.

Emerging markets are getting a beating right now, but the tattered asset class could be poised to become the “comeback kid” of 2014, some analysts say.


Those investors willing to take a long-term outlook should start looking at the battered emerging markets, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in a note released on Friday, although they added that the current turmoil was a reason to be cautious heading into September.


The asset class has been hammered in recent weeks amid speculation about an unwinding of US monetary stimulus, with those countries that have sluggish economic growth and wide current-account deficits such as India being particularly hit hard.


“While policy makers have yet to panic sufficiently for an inflection point in global risk, an improving long-term, risk-reward trade-off could make emerging markets the comeback asset class of 2014,” the BofAML analysts said.


The MSCI emerging market index has shed about 13 percent of its value since late May and has tumbled about 5 percent in just over two weeks. The Indian rupee, meanwhile, dived to a new record low against the dollar this week and the Indonesian rupiah hit its lowest level in more than four years.


Some analysts argue that there could be an opportunity to be found in the rout.


Mirza Baig, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas , told CNBC earlier this week that he thought emerging countries should stop trying to defend their currencies and allow them to fall, paving the way for an export-led recovery next year.


“After this we will have cheap assets and an export-led recovery,” he said, referring to the turmoil in emerging markets. “They [central banks in emerging markets] should just let the currency go, let it find its value and have an export-led recovery next year.”


Currency weakness gives exporters a competitive edge in overseas markets and is something emerging markets have in abundance right now.


India`s rupee is the world`s worst performing currency this year with a fall of 21 percent against the dollar. The Brazilian real has shed about 15 percent of its value and the Indonesia rupiah has tumbled 13 percent.


“We are in a slightly worse situation right now – inflation is higher, growth is weaker, we`ve adjusted to the fact that China`s growth is not going to be double digits. The reality checks have been kicking in for a while,” David Mann, head of regional research at Standard Chartered Bank, told CNBC Asia`s ” The Call ” on Friday.


“But when the dust settles, what are we left with? We are seeing relatively attractive currencies,” he added.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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If August was bad for stocks, September may be worse

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

“The end of the month day before a three-day weekend ordinarily has a 70 percent upward bias, so it`s going to be a little tough with Syria hanging over us,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS.

Traders close the books Friday on the worst month for the Dow and S&P 500 in more than a year, and are likely to be cautious ahead of the long Labor Day weekend.


“The end of the month day before a three-day weekend ordinarily has a 70 percent upward bias, so it’s going to be a little tough with Syria hanging over us,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS.


Stocks were higher Thursday, as some of the tensions surrounding Syria eased and the timing of a US led attack, which looked imminent earlier in the week, seemed to slide. For the month, the Dow fell 4.2 percent to 14,840, and the S&P 500 was off 2.8 percent at 1638, the worst month for those indices since May, 2012.


“At this point, most traders I feel are going into the weekend somewhat flat. No need to be a hero,” notes Scott Redler of T3Live.com.


Oil was lower Thursday, after running up this week on concerns that a US action against Syria could lead to retaliation that would hurt oil supplies. Late in the day Thursday, the British parliament rejected a motion supporting military action in Syria, and in the U.S., national security officials were briefing members of Congress in the early evening. Any action against Syria, which the Obama Administration says used chemical weapons on its citizens, looked like it would be after United Nations investigators report back their findings, after leaving Syria Saturday.


Even though it may be quiet in markets Friday, anxiety has been building ahead of September, historically the worst month for stocks. This September will be especially difficult to navigate with the monthly employment report next week and the Fed’s decision whether to taper its bond buying or not, expected Sept. 18. Syria has entered the picture as another potential negative in just the last week.


“That’s what’s roiling the market now, both pro and con,” said Milton Ezrati, market strategist and senior economist at Lord Abbett. “If the Syrian situation looks like it’s calm, and nobody’s going to act in any violent way…then it will be quiet” ahead of the long weekend.


“They will be taking a wait and see attitude. If the president can find a channel where he doesn’t look like he’s dithering, or inviting war, that could make the market scream higher,” Ezrati said.


Redler said the market is lacking the normal dip buyers, who have been stepping into every shallow correction. “We put a pivot low in at (SandP) 1627. Some active guys will trade long against that. But if we get a break and close below that, the bears will be growling for the 200-day and a retest of the June lows which stand at 1560ish,” Redler noted.


There is some data Friday, including personal and spending income at 8:30 a.m. ET, Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment, at 9:55 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economy at 9 a.m.


The British vote hurts President Obama’s efforts to build a coalition, and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said he would not override it.


“Now crude is down another 70 cents” in late session trading, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “That really does have to be a surprise. You bring something to a vote and you lose.”


Analysts have said the increase of production in U.S. oil has helped cap some of oil’s gains on Mideast tensions. West Texas Intermediate kept trading lower, falling below $107 per barrel Thursday evening. Government data this week put U.S. production at 7.5 million barrels a day last week, a two-decade high.


Lipow said new statistics show that U.S. oil production is growing so much that even the state of Texas’ output surpassed that of Iran, which has cut back production and is being sanctioned for its nuclear program. He said Texas output in June was 2.575 million barrels, and Iran’s output for July was 2.56 million barrels. Iran’s exports have been severely limited by the sanctions.


-Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Emerging rout to trigger global recession: Societe Generale

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Edwards believes the consequences of the fallout will be dire, and reiterated some of his more recent drastic forecasts.

The rout in emerging market (EM) currencies is unlikely to be contained and could lead to a global crisis, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards.


Edwards, who is known for his extremely bearish views, argues that the sharp fall in emerging Asian currencies will force China to devalue the yuan in order to remain competitive and that, in turn, will trigger deflation in western economies and subsequently lead to a worldwide downturn.


(Read more: Goldman downgrades emerging Asia currencies )


“At the moment, investors think that the problems are isolated to a few emerging market countries that have allowed their current account deficits to get out of hand. I see this as the beginning of a process where the most wobbly domino falls and topples the whole precarious, rotten, risk-loving edifice that our policy makers have built,” Edwards said in a note.


“The emerging market rout is merely the final tweet of the canary in the coalmine,” he added.


Edwards believes the consequences of the fallout will be dire, and reiterated some of his more recent drastic forecasts .


Gold will soar to USD 10,000 per ounce, he said, while US Treasurys will yield less than 1 percent and the US SandP 500 (INDEX: .SPX) will plummet over 72 percent to levels of 450. He did not give a time frame for these moves, however.


(Read more: Gold within striking distance of bull territory )


To back up his view, Edwards compared the performance of the SandP 500 in 2013 and the index`s performance just before Black Monday on October 19 in 1987 – when stocks on Wall Street crashed 20 percent – drawing parallels between the two.



He also referenced recent declines in copper prices, which have fallen 3 percent over the past two weeks and are broadly seen as a gauge of global economic sentiment, as a warning sign for a stock market crash.


(Read More: Stephen Roach warns of global economic crisis )


Edwards also forecast that in the event of a global recession, the US central bank will likely embark on a new and aggressive phase of quantitative easing (QE).


“With fiscal firepower essentially spent, QE will be ramped up exponentially as the Fed doves coo in universal reassurance that they can still save the world. Ultimately, I expect a new phase of aggressive QE will lead to inflation that is unlikely to be containable,” he added.


(Read more: Is taper talk really behind emerging markets rout? )


Not all industry watchers see the recent emerging market rout as a prelude to a wider crisis though, with some arguing the sell-off offers an opportunity to buy.


“We should look at emerging markets and say there are some countries where there will be a recovery,” William Davies, head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments told CNBC Asia`s “The Call” on Friday.


“India is one where we are skeptical about the near-term prospects. Indonesia is caught in the rout as well but I think it`s more likely that we`ll get a recovery there,” he added.


Meanwhile, Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a report on Friday arguing that emerging markets are set to be the comeback asset class of 2014.


(Read more: Emerging markets: the comeback kid of 2014? )


“The immediate economic pain in many emerging markets is likely to be intense. But successful long term investing requires buying `humiliation` rather than `exuberance`,” authors of the report wrote.


-By CNBC`s Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter @hollidaykatie



Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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For China inflation hawks, it’s time to watch pigs

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The rapid rise in pork prices is developing as the main threat to currently subdued inflation in China, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The rapid rise in pork prices is developing as the main threat to currently subdued inflation in China, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.


The price of pork, viewed as an essential part of the Chinese diet, has risen in recent weeks on higher seasonal demand. Tight supply meanwhile has been exacerbated by unusually hot weather conditions, which hinder transportation of pigs over long distances.


Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said that pork prices are up 13 percent from where they bottomed in mid-May, and, according to Chinese media quoting the Ministry of Commerce, prices rose 10 percent between the fourth week of May and the fourth week of July.


“The CPI [consumer price index] inflation trend deserves a careful examination, and within that, pork prices are among the most important to watch for,” analysts at BofAML said in a note released Tuesday.


“Recall that almost every episode of China`s inflation spikes in the past few years was driven by food prices – case in point, the escalating pork prices in 2007-08 and 2011, and rising vegetable prices in late-2010.”


Inflation in China has remained relatively subdued, rising an annual 2.7 percent in July, the same as the increase in the previous month, but focus could return to price pressures as the economy shows signs of bottoming out from a slowdown, analysts say.


“In year-on-year terms, pork price inflation could accelerate from 3.0 percent in July to around 10 percent and contribute 30 basis points to CPI inflation at the end of 2013 with pork`s weight in the CPI basket at 3 percent,” analysts at BofAML said in the note.


The Chinese consume more than half the pork produced in the world, according to data from Northstar Commodity Investment, and the appetite has grown as consumers gain more disposable income and spend it on meat products that were once out of reach.


Still, BofAML analysts said they do not expect pork prices to spike as much as they did in 2007-08 and 2010-11, when they surged by 75 percent and 80 percent, respectively, given higher levels of supply.


“Although current live pig stock is lower than that in 2012, resulting in a rising pork inflation, it is much higher than that in 2011 (and likely in 2007, but no data is available),” they added.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Singapore dollar: the next currency to fall?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Singapore dollar has fallen more than two percent. Its fall has raised questions whether it will be the next currency in line to witness a currency crash.

Even the Singapore dollar, underpinned by a robust economy , has failed to escape the pressure facing its regional pears.


The currency has fallen more than 2 percent from a two-month high hit just over two weeks ago, raising the question of whether it may play catch up with neighboring emerging-market currencies that have been caught in a brutal sell-off.


According to foreign exchange strategists, the Singapore dollar should remain “well isolated” from the heavy selling plaguing countries with external deficits such as Indonesia and India. The Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee have depreciated 6.5 and 16.3 percent, respectively, over the past month.


“I don`t think we`ll see strengthening in the near-term, but it [the Singapore dollar] will outperform its peers on a relative basis,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign-exchange strategy, at Credit Agricole. He expects the Singapore dollar to appreciate to USD 1.26 percent by year-end, from USD 1.28 currently.


“It`s perceived as more of a safe haven relative to other currencies,” he added.


Important factors that are expected to shield the currency from the emerging markets storm are the country`s strong current account balance, which makes it more resilient to portfolio outflows, and high foreign exchange reserves, say strategists. In 2012, Singapore`s current account surplus stood at 19 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.


In addition, the Singapore dollar is managed within trade-weighted policy bands where it is allowed to move within an estimated 2 percentage point range of a mid-point, which limits room for pronounced movements in the currency.


Investment bank UBS identifies the Singapore dollar, alongside the Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan, as the “least vulnerable” Asian currencies in the emerging markets rout. It expects the Sing dollar to appreciate to 1.25, 1.24, 1.23 against the greenback over a 3, 6, 12-month period, respectively.


Nizam Idris, head of strategy, fixed income and currencies at Macquarie bank, agrees that the currency is unlikely to go down the same path as its emerging market peers given a relatively strong economy, but adds that one risk to the currency outlook stems from a potential unwinding of Singapore`s property bubble.


“Maybe the one problem with Singapore, is the risk of a property bubble bursting,” he said. “But compared to the current account stress seen in other countries in Asia, that`s a small risk.”


Low interest rates have led to a surge in home loans in the city state, fueling property prices in the recent years. The fear is that once borrowing costs begin to rise, investors will find it more difficult to service their mortgages, leading to stress in the market.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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For many Indians, degrees abroad now unaffordable

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

With the rupee depreciating consistently and touching a new low of 68/USD last week, many Indians are facing a problem of unaffordable foreign degrees.

For the thousands of Indian students pursuing college degrees abroad, the thrill of starting a new chapter in their lives is being doused by the crash in the rupee, which has dramatically pushed up academic fees and the cost of living.
 
Shaym Mehta, a 26-year-old Mumbai national who recently began a Master of Business Administration (MBA) program at Insead in France, said this could not have come at a worse time.


“The one year you do your MBA is when the rupee is it an all-time low, it feels horrible,” Mehta, who has taken out a euro-denominated loan to fund part of his 60,000 euro college fee.


Plans to return home to find work after he graduates next year have also been put on hold, as it would be much more expensive to service the loan with on a rupee-denominated income. The rupee has fallen 28.4 against the euro over the past three months.


“Initially, I thought I would return home and work after completing the program. But since I have to pay back a loan in euros, the plans have to be reassessed. It`s an extremely weak option at this point,” he said.


Mehta says he now has less disposable income, and will likely need to cut back on discretionary spending during his time abroad. “There`re still a lot of rupees that I need to convert into euros for day-to-day spending, on housing rent, car rentals. I need to re-budget and reallocate.”


Falguni Jhaveri, who is currently in New York to send off her daughter at a college in the city, said she and her husband budgeted for tuition fees when the rupee was at 55 against the US dollar – 25 percent stronger than Thursday`s trading level of 68.8.


“That`s huge considering it costs us USD 75,000-USD 80,000 a year to send our daughter to college, including living and travel expenses. It`s a lot of money, it`s unplanned for. We`ll have to reevaluate how we are going to take care of the fees,” Jhaveri, who lives in Mumbai, told CNBC.


“The problem is also uncertainty and where it`s going to be next. You can`t plan,” she added.


According to Arvind Kumar Singhal, chief executive of consultancy Technopak Advisors, the number of Indian students traveling abroad to study will likely suffer a notable decline, if the rupee doesn`t recover. An approximate 200,000 Indians set off for overseas degrees every year, according to Technopak.


“For students who are already overseas, there`s nothing they can do about it. This impact will happen in the next academic year, even if the rupee stabilizes, we will see a significant amount of impact with more people deciding not to send their kids overseas,” he said.


Mumbai resident Miloni Shah, who has spent the past four years saving to pay for business school in the US which she plans to enroll in next year, fears the money she has set aside now may not suffice.


“I have been saving up for business school, but if this continues, and the rupee goes to 75-80, my savings are going to be wiped out and I may need to take out a student loan,” 27-year-old Shah, who works at a private equity firm in the India`s financial capital, said. “It`s really frustrating.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Just what will stop the emerging market rot?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Brazil and Indonesia, alongside India, Turkey and South Africa, have been the hardest hit countries in a brutal sell off in emerging markets, triggered by expectations for an unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus that has provided global markets with ample liquidity in recent years.

As the carnage in emerging markets continues, policy makers may have no option but to resort to more aggressive measures to shore-up confidence in their battered currencies, analysts say.


They add that the options available include stepping up the pace of interest rate hikes, while talk of capital controls to stem the outflow of foreign cash is also growing.


Brazil on Wednesday lifted its key interest rate to a 16-month high of 9 percent in a bid to rebuild confidence in one of South America`s largest economies, while Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is expected to follow suit when its central bank holds an emergency meeting on Thursday.


Brazil and Indonesia, alongside India, Turkey and South Africa, have been the hardest hit countries in a brutal sell off in emerging markets, triggered by expectations for an unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus that has provided global markets with ample liquidity in recent years.


Analysts told CNBC that capital controls, seen as a last resort when a country runs out monetary policy options to stabilize its economy and confidence in a crisis, is one option that may be considered by pummeled emerging markets.


“We`ve seen this movie many times with Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, where you have massive capital flight, and they`ve had to resort to capital controls in order to control them,” Boris Schlossberg, managing director at BK Asset Management in New York, told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box.”


“The one thing that is different right now is most of those emerging market nations have very good currency reserves so they’re in much better fiscal shape than they were before, but it’s a situation that is getting more perilous by the moment,” he added.


On Wednesday, India’s beleaguered rupee slumped more than 3 percent to a fresh record low and the Indonesian rupiah weakened to 10,950 – its lowest level against the dollar in more than four years.


Capital controls?


Speaking to CNBC on Thursday, Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said the country was not contemplating capital controls.


“No, not at all. I was in the 2008 crisis, and the situation is different now. We do not have any intention to use capital controls,” he said.


But as the sense of crisis in emerging markets grows as each day brings a fresh bout of turmoil, analysts say more needs to be done.


“In June, when we had the first wave of selling in emerging markets, that was global and it was clearly too early to intervene. But now, where the problems are becoming more isolated, it is coming closer to the time where aggressive intervention is needed,” said Jens Nordvig, global head of currencies at Nomura.


India, where the rupee has slumped 25 percent so far this year and the local stock market has tumbled 7 this month alone, has fallen under particular criticism for not doing more in recent years to buffer its economy from a possible tightening of global liquidity.


On Wednesday, the central bank said it would provide dollars directly to state oil companies, in a latest effort aimed at supporting a crumbling currency, on top of recent moves that include raising import taxes on gold and silver and tightening rules on how much local companies and citizens can invest abroad.


Others said emerging markets could issue a stern warning to markets just as European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi did last year when worries about Spain`s financial woes triggered turmoil in European markets.


“If the RBI [Reserve Bank of India], Bank Indonesia or Brazil or Turkey, go like Draghi and say ‘we’ll do whatever it takes’ to defend our currencies, it may work for a week, two weeks but at what cost?,” said Mirza Baig, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas.


“By spending their reserves [to defend currencies] in a haphazard manner, these countries are at risk of a credit downgrade at that`s even worse in the medium term,” he added.


-Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Survey shows long work hours entrenched in Asia banks

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

A survey of professionals in Singapore`s financial services industry shows that more than three quarters work over and above their contracted hours, global recruitment site eFinancial Careers said on Tuesday.

A survey of professionals in Singapore`s financial services industry shows that more than three quarters work over and above their contracted hours, global recruitment site eFinancial Careers said on Tuesday.


With many firms in the sector trying to co-ordinate with clients and offices overseas, regular early mornings and late nights are often the norm, according to the report.


It highlights a culture of long working hours in a sector which is under scrutiny following the recent death of an intern working at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.


According to the report `The Money Never Stops, ’78 percent of workers surveyed in Singapore said they worked beyond their contracted hours, with 40 percent saying they work longer than their set hours three or more times a week, especially to participate in overseas conference calls.


“There are two key take-aways from this survey. It confirms that the financial services industry is a truly global one that requires cross-time zone communication and Singapore is increasingly at the heart of that,” George McFerran, the managing director for Asia Pacific at eFinancialCareers, told CNBC.


“The other side of this is that with people working beyond their contracted hours, you start to have questions around productivity – can people really be productive in this environment?” he added. McFerran said the findings in the Singapore survey were similar to those conducted in Hong Kong and Australia, with nine out of 10 professionals polled in Hong Kong`s financial services industry saying they worked beyond their contracted hours.


In Singapore, 37 percent of those polled said they had been woken up during the night by a telephone call from a colleague or clients and two thirds said they have had their annual leave interrupted by work, according to eFinancial Careers, whose clients include major banks such as HSBC, Morgan Stanley and regional heavyweight DBS.


Over three quarters of those surveyed said their weekends have also been disrupted by work.
Recruiters and human resource groups have called for changes to guidelines and working practices following the death earlier this month of Bank of America Merrill Lynch intern Moritz Erhardt.


Erhardt, who was an intern in BofA`s investment banking division, collapsed at his London home after reportedly working until 6 am three days in a row.


A culture of long working hours and pressure could make it difficult for the financial sector to recruit the brightest graduates, according to McFerran.


“The current crop of graduates coming out of university today are less impressed by financial services as a career option… perhaps the best and the brightest are saying: is this what we want?,” he said.


A quarter of professionals in Singapore`s financial services sector work on a shift basis, the survey showed. It was conducted in July and almost 1,740 professionals took part in the poll.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Brent may hit $150 if Syria impacts Iraq, SocGen warns

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Brent crude oil prices may touch USD 150 a barrel if military action against Syria sparks a broader regional spill-over and causes supply disruptions in major producers like Iraq, Societe Generale warned.

Brent crude oil prices may touch USD 150 a barrel if military action against Syria sparks a broader regional spill-over and causes supply disruptions in major producers like Iraq, Societe Generale warned.


Under such a scenario, the French bank classified a “significant supply disruption in Iraq or elsewhere” as affecting between 500,000 to two million barrels a day. “Brent could spike briefly to USD 150” if this materializes, said Michael Wittner, Global Head of Oil research at Societe Generale.


In the more immediate term, Brent could gain another USD 5 to 10 a barrel, surging to as high as USD 125 in the days ahead “either in anticipation of the attack or in reaction to the headlines that an attack had started,” Wittner said.


However, demand destruction caused by high prices, spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the availability of emergency stockpiles held by major consumers will ensure any Syria-related oil price spikes are temporary, he added.


Major energy consuming countries under the IEA (International Energy Agency) “would be particularly concerned with protecting the fragile economic recovery, which has only recently been gathering momentum in an apparently sustainable fashion.”


Brent crude prices rose more than USD 2 on Wednesday to trade as much as USD 117.13, highs not seen since February this year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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US automakers fall further behind foreign brands

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

A new survey of customer satisfaction in the United States shows the gap between the `Big Three` automakers and imported car brands has stretched to its widest point in five years.

A new survey of customer satisfaction in the United States shows the gap between the `Big Three` automakers and imported car brands has stretched to its widest point in five years.


The 2013 American Consumer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) finds GM, Ford and Chrysler have an average score of 82 (on a scale between 0 and 100) which is below the industry average of 83. Asian brands have an average score of just over 84, slightly behind European brands which lead the ACSI with an average just under 85.


Overall, satisfaction with 20 different auto brands fell 1.2 percent. The ACSI does not show a survey score for the Tesla brand.


ACSI researchers believe customer satisfaction is slipping in part because vehicle reliability may be suffering as automakers ramp up production.


As the `Big Three` have increased their production to keep up with greater sales demand, they`ve seen customer satisfaction slip.


David VanAmburg, Director of the ACSI, said domestic automakers may be losing focus as they add more shifts and run their plants at capacity. “US automakers may be stretched too thin, ramping-up production to meet rising demand,” says David VanAmburg. “Quality may be giving way to quantity.”


It`s a troubling slide for the American auto brands. Just five years ago, the Big 3 and the Asian auto brands were in a virtual tie when it came to customer satisfaction.


Mercedes surges while Dodge and Chevy falter


Mercedes topped the list of top auto brands in the latest ACSI with a score of 88. It jumped past Lexus, which lead the survey last year.


Dodge and Chevrolet tied for last place in the ACSI as the only brands with scores of 79. Chevy`s rating dropped 6 percent.


The American Consumer Satisfaction Index was calculated after more than 4,000 Americans were surveyed in early April.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?