Emerging markets: the comeback kid of 2014?
Summary
Emerging markets are getting a beating right now, but the tattered asset class could be poised to become the “comeback kid” of 2014, some analysts say.
Emerging markets are getting a beating right now, but the tattered asset class could be poised to become the “comeback kid” of 2014, some analysts say.
Those investors willing to take a long-term outlook should start looking at the battered emerging markets, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) said in a note released on Friday, although they added that the current turmoil was a reason to be cautious heading into September.
The asset class has been hammered in recent weeks amid speculation about an unwinding of US monetary stimulus, with those countries that have sluggish economic growth and wide current-account deficits such as India being particularly hit hard.
“While policy makers have yet to panic sufficiently for an inflection point in global risk, an improving long-term, risk-reward trade-off could make emerging markets the comeback asset class of 2014,” the BofAML analysts said.
The MSCI emerging market index has shed about 13 percent of its value since late May and has tumbled about 5 percent in just over two weeks. The Indian rupee, meanwhile, dived to a new record low against the dollar this week and the Indonesian rupiah hit its lowest level in more than four years.
Some analysts argue that there could be an opportunity to be found in the rout.
Mirza Baig, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas , told CNBC earlier this week that he thought emerging countries should stop trying to defend their currencies and allow them to fall, paving the way for an export-led recovery next year.
“After this we will have cheap assets and an export-led recovery,” he said, referring to the turmoil in emerging markets. “They [central banks in emerging markets] should just let the currency go, let it find its value and have an export-led recovery next year.”
Currency weakness gives exporters a competitive edge in overseas markets and is something emerging markets have in abundance right now.
India`s rupee is the world`s worst performing currency this year with a fall of 21 percent against the dollar. The Brazilian real has shed about 15 percent of its value and the Indonesia rupiah has tumbled 13 percent.
“We are in a slightly worse situation right now – inflation is higher, growth is weaker, we`ve adjusted to the fact that China`s growth is not going to be double digits. The reality checks have been kicking in for a while,” David Mann, head of regional research at Standard Chartered Bank, told CNBC Asia`s ” The Call ” on Friday.
“But when the dust settles, what are we left with? We are seeing relatively attractive currencies,” he added.
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