Tag: World Bank

India’s growth expected to moderate to 6.3% but will remain one of the fastest growing economies: World Bank

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Indian economy’s growth is expected to moderate to 6.3 percent in the 2023-2024 fiscal from 7.2 percent in the previous financial year, the World Bank said. “The expected slowdown is mainly due to waning base effects, slowing global growth and domestic price pressures,” the bank said in its latest India development update.

The bank maintained that India will remain one of the fastest growing major economies in the word.

“An adverse global environment will continue to pose challenges in the short term. Tapping public spending that crowds in more private investments will create more favourable conditions for India to seize global opportunities in the future and thus achieve higher growth,” Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank Country director in India, said.

The bank said that rising food prices will continue to keep headline inflation elevated. The headline inflation is expected to average around 5.9 percent in this financial year because of high food and oil prices. “The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy of withdrawing accommodation and raising the policy interest rate over the last year has helped rein in core inflation, which is expected to continue to decelerate gradually,” the bank said in its report.

Also Read: August tax data, core sector show economy is in fine fettle

While the domestic demand is expected to remain robust, the pace of growth is likely to slow down in this fiscal. Private consumption growth is likely to taper off as the post-pandemic demand declines and high food inflation reduces budgets, particularly of low income countries. “Government consumption is expected to grow slowly, in line with the central government’s efforts to lower the share of current spending,” the bank said.

The report noted that conditions for private investment remain conducive due to increased capacity utilisation and improvement in balance sheets of banks and the corporate sector. Increased government capital spending on infrastructure is also likely to encourage private investments.

According to the World Bank, India’s fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 8.7 percent in the 2023-2024 financial year from 9 percent of the GDP in FY23. “Fiscal consolidation is likely to be led by modest growth in recurrent spending and buoyant revenue growth, making room for investment”, said the report. However, the bank noted that fiscal consolidation could be delayed by subsidy programmes to limit the impact of high food prices ahead of general elections in 2024.

Kouame said the bank does not envisage relaxation of the fiscal consolidation path because of the upcoming elections. Also, the Budget signals that the government is determined to maintain its consolidation path.

The World Bank India director said the bank is not building in fiscal slippages in its forecast as the states have to maintain a fiscal deficit at 3 percent. Kouame added that the bank sees zero risks of fiscal slippage because of elections.

The current account deficit (CAD) is projected to narrow to 1.4 percent of GDP in this fiscal, driven by a decline in the merchandise trade deficit.

Also Read: World Bank cuts growth estimates for East Asia as China falters

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World Bank cuts growth estimates for East Asia as China falters

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific are set to see slower growth this year and next as the region reels from the impact of tighter finances and a weak global environment, according to the World Bank’s latest report.

Gross domestic product growth is estimated at 5 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024, the World Bank said in its semi-annual outlook for East Asia and the Pacific. That compares with April forecasts of 5.1 percent for this year and 4.8 percent for the next. The latest estimates were still faster than the pace seen in other emerging markets, it said.

China accounts for some of that drag. The world’s second-largest economy will likely expand 4.4 percent next year, down from the 4.8 percent previously projected, amid property woes, increasing debt, and a fading boost from the post-Covid reopening. The 2023 GDP forecast for China was kept at 5.1 percent.

“What happens in China matters for the whole region,” the report read. “A 1 percentage point reduction in its growth is associated with a reduction in regional growth by 0.3 percentage points.”

Excluding China, East Asia and the Pacific should see slightly faster growth in 2024 as the global economy improves and revives foreign demand for the region’s manufactured goods and commodities, the World Bank said. Geopolitical tensions, possible natural disasters including extreme weather events are downside risks to the outlook, it said.

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World Bank sounds alarm as 12.5 million more Pakistanis slip below poverty line

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The World Bank has revealed that poverty in Pakistan surged to 39.4 percent during the last fiscal year, with an additional 12.5 million people slipping into poverty due to poor economic conditions. The international financial institution has urged Pakistan, facing financial challenges, to take urgent steps to achieve fiscal stability.

The Washington-based lender released draft policy documents on Friday, in collaboration with stakeholders, intended for Pakistan’s next government in anticipation of the upcoming election cycle, as reported by The Express Tribune newspaper.

According to the World Bank, poverty in Pakistan escalated from 34.2 percent to 39.4 percent within a single year, causing 12.5 million more individuals to fall below the poverty line, which is set at a daily income of $3.65. The report indicates that approximately 95 million Pakistanis now live in poverty.

Tobias Haque, the World Bank’s lead country economist for Pakistan, commented, “Pakistan’s economic model is no longer reducing poverty, and living standards have fallen behind peer countries.”

The World Bank has urged Pakistan to promptly address its fiscal issues by imposing taxes on key sectors such as agriculture and real estate while trimming unnecessary expenditures. This effort aims to achieve economic stability through a substantial fiscal adjustment of over 7 percent of the economy.

Citing the consistent rise in poverty levels, the World Bank identified areas in need of reform for the incoming government, including low human development, an unsustainable fiscal situation, excessive regulation of the private sector, and challenges in the agriculture and energy sectors.

The proposed measures include an immediate 5 percent increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio and a reduction in expenditures by approximately 2.7 percent of GDP, with the goal of restoring the unsustainable economy to a more prudent fiscal path.

The World Bank’s recommendations for bolstering government revenues include a range of measures, such as withdrawing tax exemptions and increasing the tax burden on the real estate and agriculture sectors. The World Bank expressed deep concern about Pakistan’s current economic situation and called for significant policy changes.

The World Bank noted that Pakistan has the potential to collect taxes equivalent to 22 percent of GDP, but the current ratio stands at only 10.2 percent, indicating a significant shortfall. To address this, the lender proposed reducing distortive exemptions to generate taxes equal to 2 percent of GDP, increasing taxes on land and property to collect an additional 2 percent of GDP, and generating another 1 percent of GDP from the agriculture sector.

Furthermore, the World Bank suggested the mandatory use of Computerised National Identity Cards (CNICs) for transactions, especially those involving assets. It also recommended reducing energy and commodity subsidies, implementing a single treasury account, and temporarily implementing austerity measures to save approximately 1 percent of GDP in expenditures.

In 2022, the government had deposits exceeding Rs 2 trillion in commercial banks, and due to sovereign borrowings rather than utilising these idle funds, it incurred an interest payment of Rs 424 billion, according to the World Bank.

For the medium term, the World Bank advised reducing federal development and current expenditures on provincial projects, cutting spending on loss-making entities, and enhancing the quality of development spending to save about Rs 1.4 trillion. The cumulative impact of these short- to medium-term savings would amount to 2.7 percent of GDP.

The World Bank highlighted Pakistan’s heavy subsidisation of the agriculture sector, resulting in low productivity. It suggested potential savings of Rs 328 billion by discontinuing ministries within the provincial domain. Additionally, it proposed saving Rs 70 billion by devolving the Higher Education Commission to the provinces and another Rs 217 billion through cost-sharing of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) with the provinces.

This situation arises as inflation surged to 27.4 percent in August following Pakistan’s receipt of $1.2 billion from the Washington-based International Monetary Fund in July, part of a $3 billion bailout program spanning nine months aimed at stabilising the country’s struggling economy.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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World Bank’s focus will include food insecurity and gender equality, says President Ajay Banga

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The World Bank needs to broaden the horizon to food insecurity and gender equality, says World Bank President Ajay Banga in an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi on Saturday.

The Indian-born American business executive said the vision of the global bank to eradicate poverty and share prosperity was very effective for many years due to worldwide support. This resulted in pushing millions of people out of poverty.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change have changed this. “We’ve got pandemics, we’ve got climate change, we’ve got fragility in a war,” he said.

He further said the emergence of food insecurity and biodiversity loss as global challenges have ensured the World Bank cannot stay focused on only poverty without expanding its approach to these poly crises which impact each other.

Expanding his point on focus on gender equality, he said that despite forming 50 percent of the world’s population, women are inadequately represented in management, the labour force or an opportunity at all levels of society across the world.

New Delhi Declaration

“My first take is that it is a job well done by India to get a declaration,” Banga said when asked for his reaction to the New Delhi Declaration. In a massive breakthrough under the Indian presidency, the New Delhi Leaders’ Summit Declaration was adopted on Saturday with “100 percent consensus” despite deep geopolitical divisions among group members on the Ukraine war.

The former Mastercard CEO also expressed satisfaction with paragraphs 48 to 53, which deal with reforming multilateral banks and importantly, future-proofing multilateral institutions for future challenges and future needs.

“I think there’s multiple levels in this when the G20 laid out the desire for an evolution of the Bretton Woods Institutions, the logic Shereen gave was that what we’ve done for the past 70 years was great, but it’s not future fit for what we need to go to.”

Also Read:G20 Summit 2023 | New Delhi Declaration will ensure no one is left behind globally, says S Jaishankar

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Joe Biden rallies G20 nations to boost World Bank support for low and middle-income countries

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US President Joe Biden has rallied G20 nations to agree to collectively mobilise more headroom and concessional finance to boost the World Bank’s capacity to support low- and middle-income countries, the White House said on Saturday.

Biden is currently in New Delhi to attend the annual G20 summit being hosted by India from September 9-10.

“We are aiming for our joint contributions to deliver a one-time boost to IBRD (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) equivalent to three times the World Bank’s annual non-concessional lending volume, and to double IDA’s crisis lending capacity,” the White House said in a press statement.

This initiative, it said, will make the World Bank a stronger institution that is able to provide resources at the scale and speed needed to tackle global challenges and address the urgent needs of the poorest countries.

“In New Delhi, President Biden rallied G20 partners to agree to collectively mobilise more headroom and concessional finance to boost the World Bank’s capacity to support low- and middle-income countries,” the statement said.

Biden is leading a major new initiative with G20 partners to fundamentally reshape and scale up the World Bank to more effectively deliver poverty reduction and inclusive economic growth while better addressing global challenges that can undermine the achievement of these very goals, it said.

The G20 member countries represent around 85 percent of the global GDP, over 75 percent of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.

The White House said a growing coalition of countries has come together to reform the World Bank’s mission and vision, incentives, operational model, and financing capacity.

“With measures implemented and identified under the G20’s Capital Adequacy Review, the multilateral development bank system could unlock USD 200 billion in new lending capacity over the next decade,” it said.

To amplify the impact of the ongoing reforms to the World Bank and advance progress at a global level, President Biden has asked Congress for support that would unlock new concessional World Bank financing by more than USD 25 billion just from US action.

Biden has asked the US Congress for funding to unlock USD 25 billion in new International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) concessional lending capacity and provide borrowers more headroom so that they can address global challenges.

“This new lending capacity will enable the World Bank to better support developing countries by providing more resources on better terms, and helping countries pursue more ambitious reforms and development projects with regional and global benefits,” the statement said.

The White House asserted that the World Bank must continue to pay sufficient attention to the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable countries, which are facing multiple, compounding crises, including those stemming from global challenges.

“President Biden has requested from Congress funding to provide a USD 1 billion contribution to support the International Development Association’s (IDA) immediate crisis response in the world’s poorest countries,” it said.

Biden will continue to call on G20 Leaders to commit to further progress on evolving the World Bank and other multilateral development banks over the next year, and he will push for concrete results by the Rio de Janeiro Summit under Brazil’s G20 Presidency in 2024, it said.

The G20 grouping comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK, the US and the European Union (EU).

In a significant milestone under India’s G20 presidency, the African Union on Saturday became a new permanent member of the grouping of the largest economies of the world, in the first expansion of the influential bloc since its inception in 1999.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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World Bank to aid Himachal Pradesh in assessment, reconstruction works

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The World Bank has offered to provide full support to flood-affected Himachal Pradesh, and will provide a comprehensive assessment of the damages which will aide reconstruction efforts, a statement issued here on Friday said.

The World Bank has offered to conduct an assessment in collaboration with the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) to quantify losses suffered in various sectors such as roads, power, water supply, housing, public buildings, irrigation, agriculture, horticulture, livestock, ecological services, the statement said.

World Bank’s Country Director for India Auguste Tano Kouame has conveyed the bank’s appreciation towards the timely measures taken by Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu in a letter, including for monitoring and ensuring the safe return of tourists stranded in different parts of the state, a government spokesperson said.

The proposed assessment will play a pivotal role in facilitating the reconstruction efforts, the statement said. The World Bank also stands ready to offer technical assistance for recovery and reconstruction, disaster risk management, infrastructure design, ecosystem services, and livelihood resilience, it said.

Expressing his gratitude for the World Bank’s support, Chief Minister Sukhu said that it would take at least a year to carry out restoration works caused by the rains.

Sukhu claimed rain-related damages have been estimated to be around Rs. 8,000 crore and added that restoration of roads, bridges, power, and water supply was the priority of the state government. However, as per the state emergency response centre, exact losses since the onset of monsoon on June 24 amount to Rs 5,492 crore.

Sukhu said it was a challenging time for the people of the state and support from the World Bank would prove vital in the recovery process. The Meteorological Office here has also warned of heavy rain in the state till Saturday, which may lead to more landslides, flash floods, mudslides, and increased flow of water in the rivers and drains.

Also Read:Himachal tourism takes a big step to attract more travellers: Check details here

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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India’s resilience shines amidst global economic slowdown, says World Bank President Ajay Banga

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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World Bank President Ajay Banga recently visited India and spoke about how India is doing well despite the global economic slowdown. He mentioned that India has come out strong from the challenges of the pandemic, but it’s important to keep up the progress.

Banga praised India for some things that are helping it stay ahead during tough times. One advantage is that a large portion of India’s GDP comes from within the country itself. This means India is less dependent on other countries for its economic growth.

When asked about high-income jobs in India, Banga pointed out that most of these jobs are in technology and manufacturing. He also highlighted an opportunity for India called the “China plus” strategy.

This strategy means that as supply chains move away from China or expand to other locations, India has a chance to attract these businesses and create more jobs. However, this opportunity may not last very long, maybe only three to five years.

Ajay Banga made history as the first person of color to lead the World Bank. During his visit to India, he went to a skill center called the GMR Varalakshmi Centre for Empowerment and Livelihoods, where he met and talked with students.

Overall, Banga believes that India has the potential to achieve progress and prosperity, and he is optimistic about the country’s future.

With inputs from PTI

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to travel to India for G20 finance meeting

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel this week to India for meetings with a Group of 20 finance officials and Indian officials, and then on to Vietnam for bilateral talks, the Treasury Department said on Thursday.

Yellen, who returned to Washington on Sunday after a visit to China, will use the G20 meetings to continue pushing for reforms at the multilateral development banks and for moves to accelerate sluggish progress on debt restructuring processes for low-income countries, a senior Treasury official said.

The official noted that Western leaders estimated that multilateral development banks could unlock $200 billion in extra lending firepower over the next decade through measures that were already under way, or under deliberation.

Treasury hoped the World Bank could create a mechanism to provide more resources for countries tackling global challenges such as climate change, and would like the World Bank to explore options for lending to sub- and super-sovereign actors, not just national governments.

Yellen would also urge all official bilateral creditors, including China, to speed up slow-moving debt restructuring efforts. Recent movement on Zambia’s debt was encouraging, but other cases needed to move faster, the official said.

Treasury was pushing for the publication of a user manual for borrowing countries aimed at increasing the efficiency of the overall debt restructuring process, the official added.

The US Treasury secretary, who has focused heavily on “friend-shoring” – taking steps to build more resilient supply chains through expanded ties with trusted partners – will hold bilateral talks in India and Vietnam, Treasury said.

Throughout the July 13-21 trip, Yellen would emphasise the need for countries to have diverse, resilient supply chains, although that was not a message “specifically targeted at China,” and it did not reflect any plans by the U.S. to decouple from the Chinese economy, the official said.

“If you’re talking about diversifying … your supply chain, you’re basically saying I don’t want 100% dependence on critical components anywhere in the world. That’s not specifically targeted at China,” the official said.

Yellen raised concerns with Chinese officials during her visit about what she called punitive actions against US firms and China’s recent move to restrict exports of gallium and germanium, two critical minerals used to make semiconductors.

That move was “perhaps the clearest example one can have of why we talk about building diversified and secure supply chains,” the official said, adding US officials were still trying to understand exactly how that action would be put in place.

Yellen would also work with Vietnamese officials on US concerns about Vietnam’s currency practices, the official said, lauding Vietnam’s “constructive dialogue” on the issues.

“Secretary Yellen will highlight this progress during her visit to Vietnam as one example of how our countries can work together to address challenges and help enhance Vietnam’s financial and macroeconomic resilience,” Treasury said.

Yellen would hold a news conference on July 16, ahead of the G20 meeting, as well as bilateral meetings with officials from India and the European Union, Treasury said.

In Vietnam, she will meet with Vietnamese finance officials and central bankers, as well as the economic commissioner from the Vietnamese Communist party, Treasury said.

She will also participate in a lunch with women economists, following on similar meetings she has held in Japan, South Korea and China, and take part in a female leadership conference hosted by Foreign Trade University, Treasury said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Sri Lanka receives $250 million from World Bank to boost economy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Sri Lanka has received USD 250 million as the first tranche out of a USD 500 million World Bank budgetary and welfare support, an official statement said on Tuesday, as part of the efforts to revive the bankrupt island nation’s economy.

The World Bank last week announced that they approved USD 700 million in budgetary and welfare support to debt-ridden Sri Lanka, which is going through its worst economic crisis since independence from the British in 1948.

We are pleased to confirm that the first disbursement of USD 250 million out of USD 500 million for budget support from the World Bank has been received, Shehan Semasinghe, the state minister of finance, said in a statement.

This was the biggest multilateral funding approved for Sri Lanka since the island nation struck a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-March. The statement said that about USD 500 million of the funds will be allocated for budgetary support while the remaining USD 200 million will be for welfare support earmarked for those worst hit by the crisis.

“Through a phased approach, the World Bank Group strategy focuses on early economic stabilisation, structural reforms, and protection of the poor and vulnerable,” the World Bank’s country director for Sri Lanka, Faris Hadad-Zervos, said.

When the economic crisis kicked in April 2022, triggering widespread public protests, the World Bank’s assistance allowed the island to end the cooking gas shortages.

Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis in history due to a shortage of foreign exchange reserves. The country’s economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, rising energy prices, populist tax cuts and double-digit inflation.

A shortage of medicines, fuel and other essentials also helped to push the cost of living to record highs, triggering nationwide protests which overthrew the government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

India’s share of global commercial services exports doubles to 4.4% in 2022 from 2% in 2005: Report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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India has doubled its share of global commercial services exports to 4.4 percent in 2022 from 2 percent in 2005, according to a World Bank and World Trade Organisation (WTO) report.

“China and India doubled their share of global commercial services exports from 2005 to 2022, from 3.0 percent to 5.4 percent, and from 2.0 percent to 4.4 percent, respectively,” it said.

The report titled ‘Trade in services for development’ also said that in India, South Africa and Türkiye, jobs directly linked to cross-border services exports account for more than 10 percent of total services sector jobs.

“The developing economies’ impressive trade performance under this expanded measure of trade in services is largely due to four economies that rank as leading services exporters and importers– China; Hong Kong; Singapore; India,” the report said.

It added that India and the Philippines will need to upskill and reskill their workforces and invest in the development of their domestic services sectors — particularly in terms of R&D to keep pace with rapidly changing technology and still remain competitive and progress up the value chain.

“India has become a popular destination for medical travel, and hosted around 3.5 million foreign patients from 2009 to 2019,” the report said.

Foreign patients from developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as from developing countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, go to India in search of less costly, high-quality treatment, according to the report.

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Noting that services value-added accounted for over 51 percent of India’s total exports in 2018, the two organisations said that India’s experience highlights how reforms to facilitate foreign direct investment (FDI) in services can “ignite positive growth dynamics by boosting participation in foreign manufacturing value chains”.

“Fuelled by advances in information and communications technologies (ICT), global commercial services exports almost tripled between 2005 and 2022, a period that saw marked changes in the composition of services trade, with exports of digitally delivered services increasing almost four-fold,” they said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow