Tag: US Senate

US government shutdown to crimp growth, recession risk steady

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US economic growth will take a hit this quarter from the longest-ever government shutdown, keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until at least its April 30-May 1 meeting, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

But the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months held steady from last month at 20 percent, according to the median forecast, while the chance of a recession in the next two years was also steady at a median 40 percent.

The latest Reuters poll of over 100 economists taken January 16-23 also showed a cut to the 2019 quarterly growth outlook, in line with a recent run of weaker US economic data pointing to rougher sledding for the economy this year than last year.

“With the economy possibly easing and inflation not stirring in a meaningful way, the case for additional tightening in monetary policy seems weak,” noted Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

The partial government shutdown affecting 800,000 federal workers has lasted more than a month and is expected to hurt the already-slowing economy. The Senate is preparing for a vote on Thursday to fund the government for three weeks.

Nearly 60 percent of about 50 economists who answered an additional question said the shutdown will have a significant impact on first quarter gross domestic product growth.

When asked how much of an impact the shutdown would have on US GDP for this quarter, the median was for a 0.3 percentage point trim. But forecasts ranged between 0.1 and 1.3 percentage points.

Analysts expected the US economy to grow at a 2.1 percent annualised pace this quarter, down from 2.3 percent forecast last month, followed by 2.3 percent in the second quarter and then slowing to 1.9 percent by the end of the year.

Growth forecasts were trimmed for each quarter this year.

“If the shutdown were to last for the entire quarter, it could subtract around a full percentage point from Q1 inflation-adjusted output growth. In a worst-case scenario, real GDP could indeed contract in Q1 if this Congressional impasse remains unresolved,” said Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank.

“However, we have not made any changes to our current-quarter real GDP growth forecast…given the uncertainty around these estimates.”

A deep sell-off in financial markets last month drove several US stock indexes closer to bear market territory, and pushed expectations for the Fed to slow the pace of its rate hikes. Fed officials have also voiced growing concerns about the economy. Last week, New York Fed President John Williams called for “prudence, patience and good judgment” among policy makers.

The latest survey still predicted two rate hikes in 2019, in line with the December poll and the Fed’s own dot-plots. However, economists now expect the Fed to take rates higher in the second quarter instead of the first quarter, as predicted in the previous poll.

But nearly one-third of 105 economists predicted the US central bank would either hike rates only once or keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent in 2019. That was notably higher than the 11 of 101 respondents in the previous poll.

Traders of US short-term interest-rate futures expect no rate hikes in 2019.

“We agree that the environment has shifted from that in December when the Fed issued its latest dot plot and hinted at two additional tightenings,” noted Daiwa’s Moran. “We have less confidence in our projection of two hikes, but we will hold to that view at this time.”

The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was expected to reach the Fed’s target of 2 percent in the third quarter and then forecast to level out to average slightly above that at 2.1 percent in the final quarter.

It was 1.9 percent in November.

Over 80 percent of 52 economists who answered a separate question said a sell-off in financial markets and a sharper slowdown in the US economy pose the biggest challenges for the Fed in raising rates this year.

“Global weakness, tightening financial conditions, and quiescent inflation should lead the FOMC to pause their hiking cycle this year. The timing of rate increases will depend crucially on incoming data, but for now we expect the Fed to at least skip a Q1 hike,” noted James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US Senate to vote on ending government shutdown, Trump wall impasse

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US Senate shifted slightly closer on Tuesday to resolving a month-long partial government shutdown, but there was no sign of relief anytime soon for 800,000 federal workers who are furloughed or working without pay.

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell laid the groundwork for a vote on Thursday on a Democratic proposal to fund the government for three weeks, without attaching the $5.7 billion in US-Mexico border wall funding demanded by President Donald Trump. The president has opposed similar legislation in the House of Representatives.

McConnell had said previously he would not consider a funding bill that Trump would refuse to sign.

The Senate leader said he would also bring up for a Thursday vote a proposal by Trump to end the shutdown that includes border wall funding and relief for “Dreamers,” people brought illegally to the United States as children. The plan was unlikely to pass in the Senate and had even less chance in the Democratic-led House of Representatives.

Democrats have said they would not trade a temporary restoration of the immigrants’ protections from deportation in return for a permanent border wall they view as ineffective. In 2017, Trump moved to end the Dreamers’ protections, triggering a court battle.

But the Senate action could set the stage for the type of bipartisan negotiating that will be necessary to end a shutdown that began on December 22. Americans have largely blamed Trump for the shutdown, now the longest in US history.

Affected federal workers are struggling to make ends meet.

A Trump administration official said on Tuesday the president still intended to deliver his State of the Union speech on January 29, even though House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the top US Democrat, had recommended he delay it because of the shutdown.

The request seemed likely to set up another clash between Trump and Pelosi, days after Trump abruptly refused to let her use a US military plane to go on an overseas trip hours before she was to depart.

Aides to Pelosi did not respond to requests for comment on whether Trump’s invitation to speak would stand.

Bargaining Chip

Trump may have lost the Dreamer issue as his main negotiating point on Tuesday when the US Supreme Court was silent, at least for now, on considering an administration appeal of lower-court rulings allowing continued temporary protections for the immigrant youths.

Instead, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals programme established by then-President Barack Obama in 2012 lives on with or without approval by Congress.

As the Senate debates Trump’s proposal, House Democrats this week are pushing legislation that would end the partial shutdown of agencies including the departments of Justice, Homeland Security, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor and Interior.

While their legislation would contain new border security money, there would be nothing for a wall, ensuring Trump’s opposition.

Once the government reopens, Democrats said, they would negotiate with Trump on further border security ideas.

“We were optimistic that he might … open up government so we could have this discussion,” Pelosi told reporters in comments carried by CNN. “But then we heard what the particulars were in it and it was a non-starter, unfortunately.”

Representative Jim Clyburn, the No. 3 House Democrat, welcomed any effort by the Republican-led Senate to debate and vote on legislation to reopen the government.

“This gets us started,” Clyburn told MSNBC in an interview.

The shutdown’s impact was being felt at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, with the FBI Agents Association saying probes of possible financial crimes, drugs and terrorism were being hindered by a lack of funds.

Many federal employees and contractors were turning to unemployment assistance, food banks and other support as the shutdown entered its second month. Others began seeking new jobs.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Trump, top Democrats openly spar in Oval Office over border wall

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US President Donald Trump openly fought with the top two Democratic lawmakers at an Oval Office meeting on Tuesday about government funding, throwing into question whether a deal was possible ahead of a deadline later this month.

In a remarkable public argument, the likes of which is seldom seen before cameras, Trump bickered with US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi about funding for the wall he has promised to build on the southern border with Mexico.

“If we don’t get what we want, one way or the other – whether it’s through you, through a military, through anything you want to call – I will shut down the government,” Trump said as the heated argument drew near a close.

“I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck, because the people of this country don’t want criminals and people that have lots of problems and drugs pouring into our country,” he said before reporters left the room.

Congress is seeking to finalise spending before some federal government funding expires on December 21. While Trump‘s fellow Republicans control both the House and the Senate until next month, Democratic support is needed to pass any spending legislation.

Trump has asked for $5 billion, while Schumer and Pelosi were expected to offer just $1.3 billion for border security in a package to extend funding for the Department of Homeland Security until Sept. 30. That is less than the $1.6 billion a bipartisan Senate committee has approved.

‘It’s Called Transparancy’

It was the first time Trump met with Pelosi and Schumer since the Democrats won control of the House of Representatives in November 6 congressional elections – a rocky start to the relationship the White House will have with the opposition party, with which it needs to deal to advance any priorities.

The fight kicked off when Pelosi told Trump that Americans did not want to see a “Trump shutdown,” touching a nerve. Trump cut off Pelosi, arguing that he could not advance a funding bill without Democratic votes in the Senate.

“I don’t think we should have a debate in front of the press on this,” Pelosi said.

“We’re doing this in a very friendly manner,” Trump said, as Vice President Mike Pence sat beside him, silent and stony-faced.

Senior White House staff watched the melee from the corners of the room, among them Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, outgoing Chief of Staff John Kelly, immigration adviser Stephen Miller, and Shahira Knight, his legislative director.

Then Schumer brought up “Pinocchios” that Trump had been awarded by the Washington Post for misstatements on the issue, and accused him of wanting to get his own way.

“Let’s call a halt to this,” Pelosi said as the two New Yorkers went at it.

“It’s not bad, Nancy – it’s called transparency,” Trump said.

When Pelosi brought up Republican election losses in the House, Trump quickly retorted that his party won the Senate.

“When the president brags that he won North Dakota and Indiana, he’s in real trouble,” Schumer said to the astonished press capturing the back-and-forth.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Gold prices steady but under pressure from firmer dollar

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold prices steadied on Monday after touching a one-month low in the previous session, but the metal remains under pressure from a firmer US dollar and expectations the Federal Reserve is on track to tighten borrowing costs.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,209.71 per ounce at 0431 GMT. On Friday, prices fell to their lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,206.13 per ounce.

“Higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar are flashing red for gold investors,” said Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA in Singapore.

There was little to no safe haven appeal and robust US leading indicators showed the US services-based economy was firing on all cylinders, suggesting the Fed will hold the course on expected rate rises, he said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.1 percent.

The greenback built on last week’s gains and rose towards a 16-month high.

The Fed has reaffirmed its plan to raise interest rates by in December, followed by two more potential rate hikes by mid-2019 on the back of an upbeat economy and rising wage pressures.

“It seems like the bears are back in control… It’s disappointing that every time gold starts to rally it runs out of steam so fast,” a Hong Kong-based trader said.

The precious metal has fallen about 11 percent from its April peak after investors preferred the dollar as the US-China trade war unfolded against a background of higher US interest rates.

Higher US interest rates tend to boost the dollar and also push up bond yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold is expected to test a support at $1,201, with a good chance of breaking below this level and falling more to $1,192, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in gold by 8,136 contracts to 37,486 contracts, data showed.

In other precious metals, silver was little changed at $14.15 per ounce. Prices fell to their lowest level since Sept. 18 at $14.06 in the previous session.

Palladium was flat at $1,116.50 per ounce.

Platinum was up 0.2 percent at $851 an ounce.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Gold prices hold steady, eyes on US Fed meeting

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gold prices were steady in early Asian trade on Thursday, while the dollar edged higher and investors turned their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on future interest rate hikes.

Fundamentals

Spot gold was flat at $1,225.61 per ounce at 0115 GMT.

US gold futures was down 0.2 percent to $1,226.6 per ounce.

Asian stocks rose on Thursday as investors, relieved to have moved past the US midterm elections without any major political surprises, drove a Wall Street rally, while the dollar clawed back some of its earlier

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.2 percent.

The US Federal Reserve began its policy meeting on Wednesday facing a shifting political landscape but little in recent economic data to alter plans for an interest rate increase in December and more to come next year.

The Fed’s policy statement is scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) on Thursday, and analysts do not foresee major changes.

The top Democrat in the US House of Representatives pledged a new era of congressional scrutiny over President Donald Trump on Wednesday, shrugging off White House threats of political warfare if Democrats launch investigations into his affairs.

Trump on Wednesday forced out Attorney General Jeff Sessions a day after congressional elections, and vowed to fight if the U.S. House of Representatives’ new Democratic majority launches probes into his administration.

The chances of sealing a deal on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union this month are receding, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Wednesday.

The European Union would have to see a breakthrough on Brexit within a week if its leaders are to endorse any deal with Britain in November, several official and diplomatic sources in Brussels said on Wednesday.

The president of the European Central Bank told the Italian finance minister at a closed-door meeting that Italy’s high debt requires a degree of fiscal discipline that goes beyond what is mandated by EU regulations, two EU sources said.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.19 percent to 755.23 tonnes on Wednesday from 756.70 tonnes on Tuesday.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Global stocks rise after US vote splits power; dollar slips

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Most major stock markets rose on Wednesday, led by a strong rally on Wall Street, after the outcome of the US midterm congressional elections drove expectations of political gridlock in Washington, boosting risk assets and weighing on the dollar.

Tuesday’s vote delivered a split US Congress, with Democrats seizing control of the House of Representatives and Republicans strengthening their majority in the Senate.

US oil prices fell after U.S. crude output hit another record high.

While gridlock could hamper President Donald Trump’s political and economic agenda, few analysts expect a reversal of the tax cuts and financial deregulation measures that have already been enacted.

That view helped Wall’s Street three major equity indexes rally, with traders piling into technology and healthcare stocks.

“I don’t think any of Trump’s agenda that he’s already accomplished gets unwound. That was the main point of concern for investors,” said Robert Phipps, a director at Per Stirling Capital Management in Austin, Texas. “We’ve got a relief rally because the market got exactly what it expected.”

Still, a split Congress could hamper Trump’s push for a further round of tax cuts and deregulation, measures that have supercharged the U.S. economy, stock markets and the dollar.

After the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 545.29 points, or 2.13 percent, to 26,180.3, the S&P 500 gained 58.44 points, or 2.12 percent, to 2,813.89 and the Nasdaq Composite added 194.79 points, or 2.64 percent, to 7,570.75.

Cannabis-related shares rallied as voters in several US states approved ballot initiatives approving marijuana use, while the resignation of US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who has openly opposed legalization, gave investors a further boost.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.06 percent and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.53 percent.

The US Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, and it is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. A rate hike in December is largely priced in.

By Wednesday afternoon, the focus was turning to the Fed and the decision of its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee expected at the close of its meeting on Thursday.

“I think traders are squaring positions ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision,” said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Tempus Consulting.

The dollar index fell 0.12 percent, with the euro unchanged at $1.1426.

US Treasury yields fell, but cut their decline after a record high amount of 30-year government bonds was met with weak demand.

The Treasury yield curve touched its flattest in over a month. Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 6/32 in price to yield 3.2373 percent, from 3.215 percent late on Tuesday.

Attention will now focus on Trump’s hard line on trade tariffs, which he can impose without congressional approval. That keeps alive worries about a trade war between China and the United States.

Chinese shares closed 0.7 percent lower, while Hong Kong stocks ended up 0.1 percent.

Emerging market stocks rose 0.57 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.61 percent higher, while Japan’s Nikkei closed down 0.3 percent.

The dollar’s weakness lifted other currencies. Sterling was last at $1.3128, up 0.24 percent on the day.

The Mexican peso rose overnight as the US election results showed a Democratic majority in the House, but later fell as traders cashed in following four sessions of gains.

The Mexican peso lost 0.74 percent versus the US dollar, recently trading at 19.86.

US oil prices continued a recent slide after domestic inventories rose more than expected, adding to over-supply concerns as US crude output hit another record high.

US crude fell 0.96 percent to $61.61 per barrel and Brent was last at $72.02, down 0.15 percent on the day.

Spot gold added 0.1 percent to $1,226.56 an ounce, having earlier hit a high of $1,235.83, while US gold futures settled up $2.40, or 0.20 percent, at $1,228.70.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Democrats capture US House majority in rebuke to Trump

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Democrats rode a wave of dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump to win control of the US House of Representatives on Tuesday, Fox News and NBC News projected, giving Democrats the opportunity to block Trump’s agenda and open his administration to intense scrutiny.

In midterm elections two years after he won the White House, Trump and his fellow Republicans were set to maintain their majority in the US Senate, CNN, NBC and ABC News said, following a divisive campaign marked by fierce clashes over race, immigration and other cultural issues.

At last count, Democrats had gained a net 14 of the 23 Republican-held seats needed to capture a majority.

With a House majority, Democrats will have the power to investigate Trump’s tax returns and possible conflicts of interest, and challenge his overtures to Saudi Arabia, Russia and North Korea.

They also could force Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions, possibly dooming his promises to fund a border wall with Mexico, pass a second major tax-cut package or carry out his hardline policies on trade.

S&P equity index futures erased most of their gains on expectations Democrats would seize the House.

A simple House majority would be enough to impeach Trump if evidence surfaces that he obstructed justice or that his 2016 campaign colluded with Russia. But Congress could not remove him from office without a conviction by a two-thirds majority in the Republican-controlled Senate.

Democrats in the House could be banking on launching an investigation using the results of US Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s already 18-month-old probe of allegations of Russian interference on Trump’s behalf in the 2016 presidential election. Moscow denies meddling and Trump denies any collusion.

Tuesday’s result was a bitter outcome for Trump, a 72-year-old former reality TV star and businessman-turned-politician, after a campaign that became a referendum on his leadership.

Down the stretch, Trump hardened his rhetoric on issues that appealed to his conservative core supporters, issuing warnings about a caravan of Latin American migrants headed to the border with Mexico and condemnations of liberal American “mobs.”

Democrats turned out in droves to register disapproval of his divisive rhetoric and policies on such issues as immigration and his travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries.

A record number of women ran for office this election, many of them Democrats turned off by Trump’s policy agenda.

The election results mean Democrats will resume House control in January for the first time since the 2010 election, beginning a split-power arrangement with the Republican-led Senate that may force Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions and focus on issues with bipartisan support, such as an infrastructure improvement package or protections against prescription drug price increases.

It also will test Trump’s ability to compromise, something he has shown little interest in over the last two years with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.

The loss of power will test Trump’s political hold on House Republicans, most of whom had pledged their support for him lest they face the wrath of the party’s core supporters, who remain in his corner.

Most Democratic candidates in tight races stayed away from harsh criticism of Trump during the campaign’s final stretch, focusing instead on bread-and-butter issues like keeping down healthcare costs, maintaining insurance protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions and safeguarding the Social Security retirement and Medicare healthcare programs for senior citizens.

The final weeks before the election were marked by the mailing of pipe bombs to his top political rivals, with a political fan of Trump arrested and charged, and the mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue in which 11 people died, sparking a debate about Trump’s biting rhetoric and whether it encouraged extremists.

In the House, Democrats picked up seats across the map, ousting incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock in suburban Virginia and sending Donna Shalala, a former Cabinet secretary under President Bill Clinton, to the House in south Florida.

In the Senate, where Republicans were heavily favored to keep control heading into Tuesday’s voting, Republican Mike Braun captured incumbent Joe Donnelly’s seat in Indiana and Republican Kevin Cramer beat incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

Some of the biggest Democratic stars of the campaign season were struggling. Liberal House member Beto O’Rourke became a national sensation with his underdog US Senate campaign but fell short in conservative Texas, and Andrew Gillum was trailing Republican Ron DeSantis in his quest to become the first African-American governor of the key swing state of Florida.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin won a hotly contested race in conservative West Virginia, and conservative Marsha Blackburn held a Senate seat for Republicans.

Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a 2016 Democratic presidential contender, and Tim Kaine of Virginia, Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential nominee in 2016, easily won re-election, news networks projected. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown was projected to hold his seat in Ohio.

All 435 seats in the House, 35 seats in the 100-member Senate and 36 of the 50 state governorships were up for grabs.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Half polls closed; voters pit Trump strength, Democratic resistance

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Votes were being counted across half the United States as the energy and outrage of the Democratic resistance faced off against the brute strength of President Donald Trump’s GOP in a fight for control of Congress and statehouses across the nation.

Fundraising, polls and history were not on the president’s side. But two years after an election that proved polls and prognosticators wrong, an air of uncertainty and stormy weather across parts of the country clouded the outcome of high-stakes elections from Florida to Alaska and everywhere in between.

Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts easily won re-election as they consider bids for the Democratic presidential nomination. Other 2020 prospects on the ballot included New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Anxious Republicans privately expressed confidence in their narrow Senate majority but feared the House was slipping away. The GOP’s grip on high-profile governorships in Florida, Georgia and Wisconsin were at risk as well.
“Everything we have achieved is at stake,” Trump declared in his final day of campaigning.

Long lines and malfunctioning machines marred the first hours of voting in some precincts, including in Georgia, where some voters reported waiting up to three hours to vote in a hotly contested gubernatorial election. More than 40 million Americans had already voted, either by mail or in person, breaking early voting records across 37 states, according to an AP analysis.

Nearly 40 percent of voters cast their ballots to express opposition to the president, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate, while one-in-four said they voted to express support for Trump.

The nationwide survey indicated that nearly two-thirds said Trump was a reason for their vote. Overall, six in 10 voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, but roughly that same number described the national economy as excellent or good.

Trump encouraged voters to view the first nationwide election of his presidency as a referendum on his leadership, pointing proudly to the surging economy at recent rallies.

He bet big on a xenophobic closing message, warning of an immigrant “invasion” that promised to spread violent crime and drugs across the nation.

Several television networks, including the president’s favourite Fox News Channel, yanked a Trump campaign advertisement off the air on the eve of the election, determining that its portrayal of a murderous immigrant went too far.

The president’s current job approval, set at 40 percent by Gallup, was the lowest at this point of any first-term president in the modern era. Both Barack Obama’s and Bill Clinton’s numbers were 5 points higher, and both suffered major midterm losses of 63 and 54 House seats respectively.

Democrats needed to pick up two dozen seats to seize the House majority and two seats to control the Senate.

All 435 seats in the US House were up for re-election, although fewer than 90 were considered competitive. Some 35 Senate seats were in play, as were almost 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

Trump spent Tuesday at the White House, tweeting, making calls, monitoring the races and meeting with his political team.

He and the first lady were to host an evening watch party for family and friends. Among those expected: Vice President Mike Pence and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal adviser to the president.

Democrats, whose very relevance in the Trump era depended on winning at least one chamber of Congress, were laser-focused on health care as they predicted victories that would break up the GOP’s monopoly in Washington and state governments.

Democrats could derail Trump’s legislative agenda for the next two years should they win control of the House or the Senate. Perhaps more important, they would claim subpoena power to investigate Trump’s personal and professional shortcomings.

Some Democrats have already vowed to force the release of his tax returns. Others have pledged to pursue impeachment, although removal from office is unlikely so long as the GOP controls the Senate or even maintains a healthy minority.

Tuesday’s elections also tested the strength of a Trump-era political realignment defined by evolving divisions among voters by race, gender, and especially education.

Trump’s Republican coalition is increasingly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree. Democrats are relying more upon women, people of colour, young people and college graduates.

Women voted considerably more in favour of their congressional Democratic candidate with fewer than four in 10 voting for the Republican, according to VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 113,000 voters and about 20,000 nonvoters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Election Day arrives: Voters render judgment on Trump era

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A turbulent election season that tested President Donald Trump’s slash-and-burn political style against the strength of the Democratic resistance comes to a close as Americans cast ballots in the first national election of the Trump era.

With voters going to the polls Tuesday, nothing is certain.

Anxious Republicans privately expressed confidence in their narrow Senate majority but feared the House was slipping away. Trump, the GOP’s chief messenger, warned that significant Democratic victories would trigger devastating consequences.

“If the radical Democrats take power they will take a wrecking ball to our economy and our future,” Trump declared in Cleveland, using the same heated rhetoric that has defined much of his presidency.

He added: “The Democrat agenda is a socialist nightmare.” Democrats, whose very relevance in the Trump era depended on winning at least one chamber of Congress, were laser-focused on health care as they predicted victories that would break up the GOP’s monopoly in Washington and state governments.

“They’ve had two years to find out what it’s like to have an unhinged person in the White House,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who leads the Democratic Governors Association. “It’s an awakening of the Democratic Party.”

Democrats could derail Trump’s legislative agenda for the next two years should they win control of the House or the Senate. Perhaps more important, they would claim subpoena power to investigate Trump’s personal and professional shortcomings.

Some Democrats have already vowed to force the release of his tax returns. Others have pledged to pursue impeachment, although removal from office is unlikely so long as the GOP controls the Senate or even maintains a healthy minority.

Democrats’ fate depends upon a delicate coalition of infrequent voters particularly young people and minorities who traditionally shun midterm elections.

If ever there was an off-year election for younger voters to break tradition, this is it. Young voters promised to vote in record numbers as they waged mass protests in the wake of the February mass shooting at a Parkland, Florida, high school that left 17 students and staff dead.

Democrats are drawing strength from women and college-educated voters in general, who swung decidedly against Trump since his election. Polling suggests the Republican coalition is increasingly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree.

Democrats boast record diversity on the ballot.

Three states could elect their first African-American governors, while several others are running LGBT candidates and Muslims. A record number of women are also running for Senate, House, governorships and state legislative seats.

“The vast majority of women voters are angry, frustrated and they are really done with seeing where the Republican Party is taking them, particularly as it related to heath care and civility,” said Stephanie Schriock, who leads EMILY’s List, a group that help elect Democratic women.

“You’re going to see the largest gender gap we’ve ever seen.” The political realignment, defined by race, gender and education, could re-shape U.S. politics for a generation. The demographic shifts also reflect each party’s closing argument.

While the economy continues to thrive, Trump has spent much of the campaign’s final days railing against a caravan of Latin American immigrants seeking asylum at the U.S. border. He dispatched more than 5,000 troops to the region, suggesting soldiers would use lethal force against migrants who throw rocks, before later reversing himself.

Republicans have privately encouraged the president to back off, to no avail.
Democrats, meanwhile, have beat their drum on health care.

“Health care is on the ballot,” former President Barack Obama told Democratic volunteers in Virginia. “Health care for millions of people. You vote, you might save a life.” Tuesday’s results will be colored by the dramatically different landscapes in the fight for the House and Senate.

Most top House races are set in America’s suburbs where more educated and affluent voters in both parties have soured on Trump’s presidency, despite the strength of the national economy.

Democrats were buoyed by a wave of Republican retirements and an overwhelming fundraising advantage.

They need to pick up two dozen seats to claim the House majority.

Democrats face a far more difficult challenge in the Senate, where they are almost exclusively on defense in rural states where Trump remains popular.

Democratic Senate incumbents are up for re-election, for example, in North Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana states Trump carried by 30 percentage points on average two years ago.

Democrats need to win two seats to claim the Senate majority.
Given Trump’s stunning victory in 2016, few were confident in their predictions.

“I feel less comfortable making a prediction today than I have in two decades,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz said.

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Twitter, Facebook set to defend polices ahead of midterms

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Facebook and Twitter executives plan to defend their companies in two congressional hearings Wednesday, arguing they are aggressively trying to root out foreign actors who want to do the United States harm just weeks before the midterm elections.

Twitter’s CEO will also face angry Republicans who claim the companies have shown evidence of bias against conservatives. In prepared testimony released ahead of a House hearing Wednesday afternoon, Jack Dorsey says his company does not use political ideology to make decisions.

Congress has sharply criticized the social media companies over the last year as it has become clear that they were at the forefront of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections and beyond. That scrutiny has led to additional criticism over the companies’ respect for user privacy and whether conservatives are being censored — frustrations that are particularly heightened ahead of the midterms.

“The companies have made progress, the government has made progress, but the bad guys have made progress as well,” said Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee, which will hear from both companies in the morning on the subject of foreign interference. Warner has proposed a series of ways the companies could be regulated for the first time.

The afternoon hearing in the House Energy and Commerce Committee will feature only Dorsey in a hearing focused on bias and the platform’s algorithms. Some Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have pushed the idea ahead of the elections that Twitter is “shadow banning” some in the GOP because of the ways search results have appeared. Twitter denies that is happening.

Missing from the conversation will be Google, which refused to make its top executive available for the Senate intelligence hearing. The panel invited Larry Page, the CEO of Google’s parent company, Alphabet, but the company said it would send a lower-ranking executive instead. The committee rejected that offer, and is expected to have an empty chair at the hearing for Page.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr said Tuesday that Google doesn’t “understand the problem” if it doesn’t want to work with the government to find solutions.

The back-and-forth with Google is the latest in a year’s worth of attempts by Congress to force the companies to focus more sharply on the Russian interference issue. While Burr says he believes Facebook and Twitter do understand the problem, it took both companies several months last year to acknowledge they had been manipulated.

It also underscores how difficult the problem may be to solve. While the companies have made many changes around their policies and have caught and banned hordes of malicious accounts over the past year, their business models — free services that rely on attracting as many users as possible for as long as possible and finding out as much about them as possible — remain the same. Some critics have charged that unless they change this, they will continue to contend with bad actors taking advantage of their systems.

In prepared remarks for Wednesday’s hearing, Facebook’s No. 2 executive, Sheryl Sandberg, details many ways the company is addressing the problem but reiterates that the company was slow to spot it. Thirteen Russians were indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller earlier this year on charges of an elaborate plot to disrupt the 2016 U.S. presidential election by creating fake accounts that pushed divisive issues on social media.

In her testimony, Sandberg details ongoing efforts to take down material linked to the Russian agency, including the removal this year of 270 Facebook pages. Still, Sandberg says the company’s overall understanding of the Russian activity in 2016 is limited “because we do not have access to the information or investigative tools” that the U.S. government has.

“This is an arms race, and that means we need to be ever more vigilant,” Sandberg says.

Dorsey says Twitter has continued to identify accounts that may be linked to the same Russian internet agency in Mueller’s indictment. He says Twitter has so far suspended 3,843 accounts the company believes are linked to the agency, and has seen recent activity.

On bias, the Twitter CEO is aggressive in defending his company, saying in the prepared House testimony that he wants to be clear about one thing: “Twitter does not use political ideology to make any decisions, whether related to ranking content on our service or how we enforce our rules.”

To address the concerns, Dorsey offers an explanation of how Twitter uses “behavioral signals,” such as the way accounts interact and behave on the service. Those signals can help weed out spam and abuse.

He says such behavioral analysis “does not consider in any way” political views or ideology.

Dorsey says the San Francisco-based company is also “committed to help increase the collective health, openness, and civility of public conversation, and to hold ourselves publicly accountable towards progress.”

Only Dorsey was invited to the House hearing after specific Republican concerns about bias on Twitter. While all three tech companies have been accused of political bias against conservatives, the more public-facing nature of Twitter has made it an especially easy target.

Despite the companies’ denials, conservatives have continued to push the issue ahead of the 2018 elections.

“Sadly, conservatives are too often finding their voices silenced,” House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said in a statement when the hearing was announced. “We all agree that transparency is the only way to fully restore Americans’ trust in these important public platforms.”

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow