Russia-Ukraine war: Impact of US, EU sanctions on Russian banks
Summary
In response to Russia invading Ukraine, both the US and the European Union (EU) have imposed a spate of sanctions on Russia. CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh explains what the impact of these sanctions could be on Russian banks.
In response to Russia invading Ukraine, the US and the European Union (EU) have imposed a slew of economic sanctions on Russia with a view to cripple its economy, banking institutions and its access to technology. The move is expected to take a toll on Russia’s trade and stifle growth.
The US announced sanctions on some individuals, and on some Russian banks, while the EU has said that it will disconnect an unnamed list of Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system. Also, both the US and the EU have said that they will prevent Russia from accessing its reserves.
Preventing the central bank from accessing its reserves is by far the nuclear option in the financial sector. The removing of some people from the SWIFT or sanctioning those banks is important. Now what it means is that all dollar settlements are done by the US, by its clearing house. If one is a sanctioned entity, they cannot be a counterparty. So that means all the oil and commodities that are sold through those banks will not be settled at all. So, they are out of the financial sector.
The big unknown here is how does one prevent Russia from not accessing its reserves? There is a negative list in the US. If you are added to that list, you cannot transact whatever you have in those banks, so that becomes very clear. But what if Russia is not holding its reserves entirely in those banks. Also, Russia is holding a lot of gold- about 20 percent of the reserves are in gold. So technically, gold can be sold. Though one may still wonder who is going to pay them in dollars and how will that be settled. So perhaps it can still sell some of its gold or its other non-EU, non-US T-bill reserves, like China.
Another unknown is, which are the banks that are removed from the SWIFT? Now deliberately the EU has not named which of the banks have been removed. So at the moment, the scale is big. It could be any of them.
There is one section in the financial sector that believes that it would be the same banks that the US has already named, and the US has only named three banks in the top ten. The first biggest bank, the second and the eighth and then there are smaller entities. So one can deal with the other banks.
Also Read: What is SWIFT and how does it affect Russia?
The best case for Russia is there are sanctions on all the banks. Therefore, the other banks will still be able to handle transactions and therefore gas and other commodities can be sold through those banks. The US will settle it in dollars and dollars will flow in. So some transactions can be met.
Also, if there is a crash on the ruble (Russia’s currency), which is very imminent, the ruble in some of the black markets was selling at 171 ruble to the dollar. On Friday, it closed at 83 ruble to a dollar, so already Russians are rushing in to draw dollars.
What is the worst-case scenario here- because the list is not named, nobody wants to deal with these banks, which is why you are seeing all commodity prices shoot up, especially gas and oil. When gas shoots up, oil shoots up immediately. So as a result, Russians are already withdrawing dollars in panic so the reaction would be that Russia could impose capital controls, not allowing its people to take out dollars; Indian companies registered there will also face a similar problem, but the situation is still fluid.
It is also possible that the EU wants to freeze Russian assets, not their own homes- when an economy is recovering, one doesn’t want to impose a recessionary trend. Also, an important point is that one wants a bargaining chip against Russia- if you have already pushed the economy out, there are no talks. Russia is not yet Iran. There are still some negotiating chips and no one knows what they are- only the EU knows and they may still be negotiating.
Watch the accompanying video of CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh for more details.
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