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This is what consumer and healthcare sector expects from Union Budget 2020

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The Indian growth story has been largely fuelled by retail consumption, thanks to the country’s growing middle class. However, recent systemic issues such as inflation in basic consumer goods, the shadow-banking crisis and the on-going unemployment crunch has resulted in a setback to consumption.

The Indian growth story has been largely fuelled by retail consumption, thanks to the country’s growing middle class. However, recent systemic issues such as inflation in basic consumer goods, the shadow-banking crisis and the on-going unemployment crunch have resulted in a setback to consumption. The lack of funds in the hands of consumers, owing to the reluctance of NBFCs to lend freely has particularly marred demand in not only high-ticket segments like real estate and auto but also in the retail and the packaged consumer goods industry.

As per Nielsen, sales of FMCG goods from online channels is expected to quadruple from $1.2 billion to $4 billion by 2022.  E-commerce is certainly one of the growth avenues particularly for the FMCG industry. The broader e-commerce market is also set to grow at a CAGR of 30 percent for gross merchandise value to be worth $200 billion by 2026. While this is positive news, a key challenge to the growth of the retail industry is the foreign direct investment policy. The policy decisions around permitting foreign investment in the e-commerce industry in India have always centered around protectionism for the domestic industry, particularly the ‘mom-and-pop’ stores. As a result, while the government has permitted FDI in the market-place model, foreign investment in the high-value inventory-model is prohibited.

Another challenge faced by the stakeholders in the retail industry, particularly those having a pan-India presence, has been in complying with unpredictable and varying state-specific laws. Take for instance, the shops and commercial establishments laws – where, each state has prescribed its own set of registers and forms/ returns, which must be filed on a periodic basis for the continuation of routine operations.

While a model act has been in the works for years to address issues around uniformity, the reluctance by state to enact the model law has taken a toll on the ‘ease of doing business’ efforts. Similar issues have been brewing with the ‘goods and services tax’ laws – one of the most prolific tax reforms in recent years. Implementation issues have had a negative impact on the stakeholders in the FMCG industry – particularly the MSME distributors and channel partners. The GST council is making concerted efforts on revising the tax rates. However, constant rate cuts have risen concerns around profiteering, especially for the FMCG industry.

E-pharmacies in trouble

India’s sunshine industry – drugs and pharmaceuticals – has been grappling with similar issues. The e-pharmacy startups are fighting an uphill battle on account of the unpredictable regulatory landscape, with high courts of different states passing contradictory orders. Similar challenges are also being faced by the nascent medical devices industry, with the recent draft notifications highlighting the government’s intent to have greater control over the import, manufacturing and distribution of such devices. To counter challenges around inflation, the government has also been capping prices of drugs and medical devices (under the Essential Commodities Act). While the long-term impact of such price controls is yet to be seen, the profits of the ‘pharmacy to the world’ will surely be pared in the short-run.

With challenges such as stagnating growth and dwindling consumption rates, India is once again at the crossroads of re-thinking its policy decisions, including those for attracting foreign investments. While India Inc. is surely banking on this year’s budget to act as a panacea to the NBFC crisis, the industry expects steps such as formulating national-level policies and increased focus on predictability and uniformity of the regulatory regime to address fears of a slowdown.

Rupinder Malik and Sidharrth Shankar are partners and Aman Bhatia is an Associate at J. Sagar Associates. The views are personal.

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Government to push RBI for dividend boost again as revenue drops

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

India’s government plans to push the central bank for a fiscal lifeline in the form of another interim dividend, as it struggles to meet its expenditure commitments amid a steep revenue shortfall, three sources directly aware of the matter said.

India’s government plans to push the central bank for a fiscal lifeline in the form of another interim dividend, as it struggles to meet its expenditure commitments amid a steep revenue shortfall, three sources directly aware of the matter said.

The fresh call comes just months after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved a Rs 1.76 trillion dividend payment to the federal government, including Rs 1.48 trillion for the current fiscal year.

The RBI largely earns profits through its trading of currencies and government bonds. Part of these earnings are set aside by the RBI for its operational and contingency needs while the rest is transferred to the government in the form of a dividend.

It earned a surplus of Rs 1.23 trillion in its last financial year, which was substantially higher than previous years.

One of the officials said the government wants the RBI to consider its demand for an interim dividend given this financial year has been an “exceptional year,” with economic growth projected to fall to an 11-year low of 5 percent. The current fiscal year runs to March 31.

“We do not want to make an RBI interim dividend a regular thing, but this year can be treated as extraordinary,” said the source, adding the government is likely to push for a payout of between Rs 350 billion and Rs 450 billion.

If agreed, it would mark the third straight year in which the RBI has agreed to give the government an interim dividend.

Spokesmen for the finance ministry and RBI both declined to comment on the matter.

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to present the annual budget for the next fiscal year on February 1, and is widely expected to announce a fiscal stimulus including more spending on infrastructure and tax incentives to boost consumer demand and investments.

Shaktikanta Das, who was appointed RBI governor by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in late 2018 after the resignation of Urjit Patel, has cut the policy repo rate five times by a total of 135 basis points and eased liquidity restrictions to support falling economic growth. Some RBI officials are still reluctant to pay more funds as it could impact provisions to cover sovereign risks, sources said, but the government is hopeful that the RBI board, which includes its nominees, will approve the dividend. A panel headed by former RBI governor Bimal Jalan was set up by the RBI in 2018 to recommend a formula for the sharing of its profits with the government. The panel, whose suggestions were accepted, approved a record dividend and has said an interim dividend could be paid only “under exceptional circumstances.”

Exceptional year

New Delhi wants the central bank to extend a helping hand as it faces a shortfall of more than one-third in its revenue target of Rs 19.6 trillion following a severe economic slowdown and cut in corporate tax rates last year.

Modi met officials and economists on Thursday, and sought suggestions for the budget and to make India a $5 trillion economy.

The government is worried about an economic slowdown as the manufacturing sector is projected to grow just 2 percent compared to 6.9 percent a year ago, hitting tax collections.

RBI officials have been told the revenue shortfall was currently estimated at between 34 and 37 percent of the budgeted target, but using all efforts may be brought down to nearly 25 percent, the first official said. “India is facing a serious crisis. We need all steps even to achieve 5.5-6 percent growth next fiscal year.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Union minister Hardeep Singh Puri expects construction sector to be vehicle of revival

Real estate growth

As Narendra Modi government set an ambitious target of making India a $5 trillion, union housing and urban affairs minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Thursday said like China, construction will be the vehicle of revival in India too.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Puri said that real estate sector in the country is heading into the direction of revival and at the same time, it is witnessing a drop in unsold inventory and a pickup in construction activity.

The minister claimed that the Centre has given ownership rights to 40 lakh people in unauthorised colonies in Delhi just weeks ahead of assembly elections in the national capital.

Further, he said the Real Estate Regulation and Development Act (RERA) is taking care of small dispute settlement cases in the real estate sector.

Puri said the upcoming Union Budget 2020 is likely to address any concerns that the real estate industry has, “Culture of impunity is the main problem this sector is facing, which is the second largest in terms of employment.”

Will Union Budget 2020 bring relief on personal taxation? Experts discuss

Income Tax return file

With the Union Budget 2020 to be presented on February 1, hope floats that there could be some relief on the personal taxation front. In this show, CNBC-TV18 give viewers an opportunity to put forth all your tax queries or even your appeal to the union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

CNBC-TV18’s Mangalam Maloo and Sumaira Abidi are in conversation with Parizad Sirwalla, partner and head, Global Mobility Services, Tax at KPMG India and Rishi Kapadia, partner at Dhruva Advisors to answer all your tax-related queries.

Speaking about inheritance tax, Parizad said, “There is a lot of thought process that needs to go before this tax is levied and what does it set out to achieve. Personally, I don’t think there should be any mention of inheritance tax this year.”

Kapadia said common man is expecting lower taxes as the government had announced huge corporate tax rate cut in September 2019, “I think it is time when there can be some rationalisation in the tax rates.”

 5 Minutes Read

Shriram Properties reduces IPO size to Rs 750 crore, says report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The company had received approval from capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to float an IPO in April 2018.

Bangaluru-based real estate developer Shriram Properties Ltd has reduced the size of its proposed initial public offering (IPO) to Rs 750 crore, reported Mint.

According to the report, the developer had planned to launch the IPO after the Union budget in February to raise up to Rs 1,250 crore earlier.

The company had received approval from capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to float an IPO in April 2018.

“The expectation from the budget is that it will be housing-friendly, particularly for the mid-income and affordable housing segments, which is what Shriram Properties focuses on. Market sentiment was weak last year but is expected to pick up and be positive after the budget announcement,” the report quoted said the person directly familiar with the plans.

Shriram Properties has Rs 590 crore of debt, and will mainly use the proceeds of the share sale to pare its leverage level. The developer plans to raise around Rs 250 crore through the primary market and the rest from the secondary market, the newspaper report added.

Further, the company has already got commitments of around Rs 400 crore from around nine investors, the report quoted another person. Shriram Properties currently has Tata Capital, TPG, Starwood Capital Group and Walton Street Capital as entity-level investors, it added.

 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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No industry will shift out of Maharashtra anymore, says CM Uddhav Thackeray to Corporate India

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

In a two and a half-hour closed-door meeting, Maharashtra CM met top corporates and industrialists to discuss proposals for the industrial policy and job creation in the state.

“No industry will shift out of Maharashtra anymore.” This was the commitment by the Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray today to the industry honchos as he promised that permissions required for big, small and medium industries will be further facilitated.

In a two and a half-hour closed-door meeting, Maharashtra CM met top corporates and industrialists to discuss proposals for the industrial policy and job creation in the state.

The CM sought suggestions and expectations that will make the state’s economy reach $1 trillion by 2025. During the meeting, the Maharashtra CM and business leaders discussed ways to boost investment in the state.

Responding to the concerns of the industrialists on lengthy approval cycles, infrastructure and ease of doing business, CM assured that steps will be taken so that no industry will be pushed to closure.

The proposal to start the largest steel industry in Vidarbha and the push to expand on the tourism sector was also discussed. This was the first such meeting that Uddhav Thackeray held with top corporates since he took over as the chief minister.

Ratan Tata, Deepak Parikh, Mukesh Ambani, Uday Kotak, Kumar Mangalam Birla, Anand Mahindra, Adi Godrej, Baba Kalyani, Sajjan Jindal, Gautam Singhania, Gopichand Hinduja, were among those who attended the two and a half-hour-long meeting. State industries minister Subhash Desai and minister Aditya Thackeray were also present for the meeting.

With a core focus on industries, the attention was also moved to discuss the need for investments on the health and education sectors. The new state cabinet will be presenting its first budget in March 2020.

Maharashtra’s economy is currently a little over $400 billion and the state has a debt burden of Rs 6.71 lakh crore. CMO’s media statement had highlighted that Maharashtra, through its well-developed economy, is among the largest contributors to India’s GDP.

The state hosts industries from almost all sectors. The vision for Maharashtra is to become a trillion-dollar economy by 2025, contributing about one-fifth to the national economy.

After taking over, the new Maha Vikas Aghadi government had ordered a review of all big-ticket projects like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad Bullet Train, among other projects they called ‘money-guzzlers.’ Although, no project has been halted.

Subhash Desai said the progress of Tuesday’s decisions would be reviewed within three months and such industry-government discussions will continue in future.

Industry honchos had met the Prime Minister Narendra Modi just yesterday to discuss the country’s current economic status and expectations from the upcoming Union Budget 2020.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Interview: Legendary investor Mark Mobius on Indian equities, oil prices and union budget 2020

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Legendary investor Mark Mobius on Tuesday said he is positive on Indian equities for the long term and expects a rise in Brent crude oil price above $70 due to geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.

Legendary investor Mark Mobius on Tuesday said he is positive on Indian equities for the long term and expects a rise in Brent crude oil price above $70 due to geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.

Mobius, the founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said that the government cutting expenditure is a positive sign but needs to focus on infrastructure spending.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, he expects to see higher allocation by the Narendra Modi government for infrastructure in the upcoming Union Budget 2020.

Edited excerpts from the interview:

Your thoughts on this recent geopolitical crisis and whether that will lead markets much lower from here?

The key thing is oil prices. If you see the substantial hike as you know oil prices have already gone up to $70 per barrel and looks like it is going a little higher, this could result in real problems for a lot of countries in Asia, particularly which are importing oil. So I think we have to keep an eye on that possibility.

The Donald Trump administration said they have got the targets in mind and mentioned the oil refineries in Iran. So that could escalate the whole situation and could result in higher oil prices. So I would focus on that.

At this stage of the game, Iran is pretty desperate to do something about ending the sanctions and they believe that by escalating terrorist attacks they will be able to do that. So I think we can expect more such situations going forward.

Two separate questions. One, should we logically expect an escalation of armed skirmishes and separately how worried are you about crude? As we spoke to some oil market experts yesterday and their point was that the US lately is a very big supplier of crude oil to the world of energy and separately Iran and Iraq between them don’t account for a great deal in a global economy that is already slowing. So most of them gave $70 per barrel as the upper limit.

Iran is now pretty desperate to do something and believe that by escalating the situation, they will be able to get the US to pullback. Problem with that is that it doesn’t look like the Trump administration will do so. So I think we can expect an escalation.

In terms of oil prices, yes, the US is the big producer, the biggest in the world now and of course higher oil prices could help the American economy. However, you must remember that it is not only about Iranian production but it is also about the production in Iraq as well as if the US is forced out of Iraq, then we have another possibility of airstrikes in that part of the world.

Would you buy into markets like India now amidst all these geopolitical skirmishes as history has taught us that the best time to buy markets like India is when you have these geopolitical or global problems, what would your view be?

For long-term, we are very positive on India and we believe that if prices go down substantially, then we would want to add to holdings in India.

Do slowdown issues worry you? The latest worry is that the government has imposed spending cuts because taxes have not lived up to budget expectations.

That is a good sign in the sense that they are acting responsibly to make sure that they have a budget but at the same time, I think they have to move ahead on infrastructure spending and get people to work on the infrastructure.

I want your thoughts on what would be your number one wishlist in terms of budget? What would you want as we move into the union budget?

I would like to see substantially more spending on infrastructure. That is the key – for two reasons, one is that country needs it and good infrastructure will speed up the commerce and trading generally.

At the same time, it will put more people to work. That is one of the areas where the government can do a lot with infrastructure spending by having more workers work on roads, bridges, tunnels etc.

As we kick-start 2020, how are you positioned in the emerging markets (EMs) now, what is your pecking order and where does India feature on your list?

India is right up there. China is the largest obviously and India is right behind. India may turn out to be the higher than China going forward but that remains to be seen on what happens to prices so on and so forth.

What are you buying at the moment in India? The referring we get from a lot of stock pickers is that what is good is way too expensive, the others are still not worth buying?

We are more interested in growth rather than just looking at the price to earnings ratio or price to book and those countries that have high growth like India are the ones we want to target. The most interesting industry is related to the consumer as we think the consumer has more money to spend going forward, capital incomes are going up, so that is one area where we are focused.

But the last gross domestic product (GDP) growth number – nominal GDP was 6 percent and the average for the first half of the current fiscal is 7 percent nominal. The real GDP growth comes in somewhere between 4.5 and 5, it doesn’t bother you?

No, not at all. It is very good growth for a country of the size of India. So in our view, it will do better than 5-6, that is terrific.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Quantum Securities says Nifty50 could hit 13,300 in 2020

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Quantum Securities on Tuesday said that Nifty50 could hit 13,300-13,300 level in 2020.

Quantum Securities on Tuesday said that Nifty50 could hit 13,300-13,300 level in 2020.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Neeraj Deewan, director, said, “In case the government announces a cut in income tax, then consumer discretionary stocks will see an immediate uptick. Cement and metals would see gains on the back of stable global markets and increased infrastructure spending by the government.”

Here are the edited excerpts from the interview:

Q. What do you have to say about 2019?

A. It was a narrow market and very few people were able to reap benefit out of the bull run in 2019. If you see at an index level, people think that the markets did not do well. The money was sitting at the highest level, and that’s why the portfolios’ didn’t see much gain. So even though the index performance was very good, people were not able to make that money on a portfolio level.

Q: What are the regulations that you are expecting as a market participant from the Union Budget 2020?

A: Income tax cut is on everyone’s list. It will pave the way to boost consumption. Plus, we also need to see how the government is going to fund infrastructure spending.

Q: Do you see the fiscal deficit problem will be carried in 2020 as well?

A: The government should let it go and maybe do a little bit of fiscal deficit in 2020 and 2021. Even the government’s disinvestment of PSUs will be happening in 2020 and all other things will fall in place, while the economy picks up.

Q: If personal income tax cut – if we do see that which are the sectors that you think will be the most kind of profitable?

A: I think discretionary consumption and that is one which should see a boost immediately.

Q: Do you see Nifty sustaining 12,200 level or will it rally till 13,000?

A: Next year, I don’t see much of an upside in the market but Nifty50 will touch 13,000-13,300 level during the year.

Index wise, I am not seeing much upside because some stocks are already very expensive. Whether you look at fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks like Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) or you look at HDFC Bank, they are very good companies doing very well but then, I don’t see too much of an upside. I have not seen a sell-off there but at least the upside would be limited.

Q: While you choose stocks, do you look at premium valuations or earnings trajectory?

A: If there’s a long-term investor in the market, it doesn’t make any difference whether he buys HDFC Bank today or three months later because if you are investing for three-five years, you will make money. On the contrast, in the short-term, he may not get the returns because it is already expensive.

For investors, there is a mix of good quality. In the paint sector, there is Asian Paints. In non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), we have HDFC Ltd. You need to have some of these but then the delta comes when you buy the stock which are at attractive valuations.

So it has to be a mix of large-cap multi-bagger or a bluechip stock which has an expensive valuation but has growth visibility for the next 10-20 years.

Q: Which way do you see the Indian markets heading now?

A: In the short-term, it will take some time for the economy to show signs of picking up so there may be some green shoots available. However, for them to pick up from these levels, it may take some time. Therefore, the narrowness of the market may continue but gradually the market has already started becoming broader. We have seen this in the last few weeks as some midcaps and broader market also participating which should slowly gradually increase towards this year. This year should be more of a broader market year than just a narrow market.

Q: Which are the sectors that you think are going to give good returns this year?

A: According to me, the Indian equity market should become broader and the economy bottom out and gradually picks up the pace from that level. If there’s a personal income tax cut, then consumption including auto should pick up the pace.

Financials have to play an important part as it did give good returns last year. Cement and metals will also see an uptick supported by the gains coming from global markets and government expenditure in the infrastructure.

Q: What would be the target for the Sensex and Nifty that you are expecting this 2020?

A: I see an upside. I see that Nifty hit the levels of 13,300 around and Sensex around 45,000 for the year. That is the upside while on the lower side, Nifty could also go as down as 11,300.

Q: What is your investment strategy right now?

A: There has been a lot of problems as far as financials are concerned because of all these bad debts, NPAs, poor leverage positioning in the corporates. In the broader market, while selecting a stock one should avoid leverage company right now. That is one of the problems in most of the companies. So, wherever you have high leverage, avoid such companies.

Q: How should the portfolio look like?

A: If you are investing in mutual funds, you should be going for multi caps because pure large-cap won’t give that kind of return and pure midcap will be risky. The portfolio should have a multi-cap approach and even when you are making your portfolio, you should have a diversified portfolio with a good mix of large-caps and a small quantum of midcaps. The major part of the portfolio should always go to large caps and then followed by midcaps and small caps.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Union Budget 2020: How key economic indicators have changed since Budget 2019

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

With less than a month left for the Union Budget, here’s a look at how key economic numbers have changed between the last budget and the upcoming one

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present Union Budget 2020 — her second — on February 1. With less than a month left for the budget, here’s a look at how key economic numbers have changed between the last budget and the upcoming one:

Fiscal Deficit

Budget 2019: In her last budget, which was presented on July 5, 2019, after PM Modi-led NDA formed the government for the second term, FM Nirmala Sitharaman had revised the fiscal deficit target to 3.3 percent of GDP from an earlier 3.4 percent for 2019-20.

Now: Several reports and experts say that the government is likely to miss its fiscal deficit target of 3.3 percent and that the actual number may be anywhere between 3.5 percent and 3.8 percent.

DBS Group Research, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, had said that it expects the fiscal deficit to remain between 3.5 percent and 3.6 percent for the financial year 2020.

Moody’s, after the budget announcement on July 5 last year, had said that there were risks of India missing the deficit target if tax revenue falls short of the projection — a case which seems quite likely now.

In fact, government officials too have acknowledged the same. A report by Business Standard in December, citing government officials, said that India is indeed likely to miss its fiscal deficit target for this financial year.

Government Expenditure

Budget 2019: The government had proposed to spend Rs 27,86,349 crore in 2019-20, 13.4 percent above the revised estimate of 2018-19.

Now: A Reuters report on Tuesday said that the government is likely to cut spending for the current financial year by as much as 2 trillion Indian rupees (Rs 2 lakh crore) as it is facing tax shortfall, which is likely to affect its fiscal deficit target.

“The government has spent about 65 percent of the total expenditure target of 27.86 trillion rupees till November but reduced the pace of spending in October and November,” the report said, citing government data, adding that a 2 trillion-rupee reduction would be about a 7 percent cut in total spending planned for the year.

Tax Collections

Budget 2019: The total indirect tax collections were estimated to be Rs 11,19,247 crore in 2019-20, of which, the government had estimated to raise Rs 6,63,343 crore from GST, out of which, Rs 5,26,000 crore was estimated to come from Central GST. The collections from taxes on firms were expected to jump by 14.2 percent in 2019-20 over the revised estimate of the previous year, and those on individuals by 7.6 percent — Rs 7,66,000 crore and Rs 5,69,000 crore, respectively.

Now: There are concerns that the government may fall short of the tax revenue. The revenue department has launched measures to boost tax collections for the next four collection months, asking senior officers to achieve targets.

Direct tax collections, as of November, crossed only Rs 5 lakh crore against the target of Rs 13 lakh crore. While the Central GST collection, as of November, stood at Rs 3.26 lakh crore, against the govt’s target of Rs 5,26,000 crore.

The collections of GST for the month of November, collected in December, crossed Rs 1.03 lakh crore, sources told CNBC-TV18 earlier.

The centre, in December, set an ambitious Rs 1.1 lakh crore monthly GST target for the remaining four months of the current fiscal and asked taxmen to step up efforts to achieve the goal.

Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey, in a meeting held with top tax officials, had also said that of the remaining four months, Rs 1.25 lakh crore collections have to be achieved in at least one month.

Government officials, on the condition of anonymity, told CNBC-TV18 that the collections will be better in December. However, some reports claim the government may miss the target.

GDP Growth

Budget 2019: Sitharaman, in Budget 2019, had pegged India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate at 12 percent for 2019-20.

Now: A survey conducted by CNBC-TV18, ahead of the first advance estimates of the FY20 GDP, hinted at real GDP at 5 percent while nominal GDP at 7.5 percent.

The government later estimated India’s GDP growth during fiscal 2019-20 at 5 percent as compared to 6.8 percent in the year-ago period.

Global rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has lowered India’s gross domestic product growth projection for the fiscal year 2019-20 to 4.9 percent from 5.8 percent, saying that weak household consumption will curb economic growth and weigh on the credit quality.

India’s GDP growth declined for the third straight quarter to an over six-year low of 4.5 percent for the second-quarter ended September 30, down from 5 percent recorded in the Q1FY20.

Surcharge

Budget 2019: In the 2019-20 budget, the government decided to increase surcharge from 15 percent to 25 percent on taxable income between Rs 2 crore and Rs 5 crore, and from 15 percent to 37 percent for income above Rs 5 crore.

Now: Sitharaman later announced the rollback of the controversial tax surcharge on the Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPIs). The decision taken in the budget to levy enhanced surcharge had spooked the stock markets.

Corporate Tax Cut

India cut corporate tax rates in September in a surprise move designed to woo manufacturers, revive private investment and lift growth from a six-year low. The cut in the headline corporate tax rate to 22 percent from 30 percent was widely cheered by corporates as well as the stock market.

 

(With agency inputs)

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

Care Ratings expects another 25 basis points rate cut in February

RBI announces portfolios of deputy governors

After the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was released on Thursday, rating agency Care Ratings said it is expecting another 25 basis points rate cut in February itself.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, said, “Reading the MPC minutes it does gives me the impression that it is going to be a one-time pause.”

According to Sabnavis, after union budget 2020, RBI can make a decision on the rate cut as the status of government finances will be out then.

Further, he said, “Personally, I still feel that we need to see that 1.35 basis points first workout before we go in for another cut. It looks like following the budget, we would be seeing a rate cut taking place probably at a magnitude of 25 basis points.”