Pharma Q4FY24 earnings preview | Robust US performance expected to drive revenue growth
Summary
Analysts will watch out for an update on US pricing from Aurobindo, Lupin and others, pending US FDA issues for Cipla, Sun Pharma, Biocon, and the commentary on fundraising from the likes of Biocon.
Pharmaceutical companies are likely to report around 12-14% healthy year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth and as much as 26-27% earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) growth for January-March 2024 as a steady quarter in the US offsets a seasonally weak domestic market.
The US markets could grow as much as 22% YoY, higher than the four-quarter growth average of around 17-18%.
This expansion will be aided by easing price pressure and sales of key drugs, especially continued sales from the blockbuster cancer drug Revlimid generic.
Here’s how the US market sales could look like company-wise
- Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (DRL) could see around 5% quarter and quarter (QoQ) growth, which would be led by over $100 million from Revlimid generic and aided by the integration of the main portfolio.
- Zydus is expected to grow over 20% QoQ led by Revlimid generic again, which could add as much as $50 million for the company, according to some estimates.
- Cipla’s sales could be tempered due to a loss of market share for the respiratory drug Albuterol.
- Sun Pharma could see around 2% QoQ growth led by their speciality portfolio of drugs, which has been doing well consistently.
- Lupin will benefit from the inhaler Spiriva generic driving around a 4% QoQ growth for the company in the US.
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Domestic market for Lupin is likely to grow around 10-11% driven by sales of chronic drugs and a recovery in acute therapy drugs.
JB Chemicals and Mankind are likely to outperform with an over 20-25% growth in the domestic market.
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Margins will be aided by niche products in the US and lower operational costs. Estimates are margins could expand by as much as over 250 basis points.
Also, watch for higher CDMO sales QoQ pushing up earnings for Divis Laboratories as well as Laurus Labs.
Margin improvement and commentary will be key for both these companies as the Street will watch for cues on big orders from multinational companies (MNCs) and progress on opportunities such as GLP 1 drugs.
Lastly, analysts will watch out for an update on US pricing from Aurobindo, Lupin and others, pending US FDA issues for Cipla, Sun Pharma, Biocon and commentary on fundraising from the likes of Biocon.
Also Watch | Vishal Manchanda, Pharma Analyst at Systematix Group, talked on CNBC-TV18 about what to expect in the pharmaceutical sector for the Q4 of FY24.
For more details, watch the accompanying video
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