Tag: S&P Global Ratings

Non-performing loans in Indian banking sector to rise in next 12-18 months: S&P

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Non-performing loans in the Indian banking sector is likely to witness an uptick and may shoot up to 11 percent of gross loans in the next 12-18 months, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. It said forbearance is ”masking” problem assets for Indian banks arising from COVID-19 and the financial institutions will likely have trouble maintaining momentum after the proportion of Non-performing loans (NPL) to total loans declined consistently so far this year.

”While financial institutions performed better than we expected in the second quarter, much of this is due to the six-month loan moratorium, as well as a Supreme Court ruling barring banks from classifying any borrower as a non-performing asset,” S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Deepali Seth-Chhabria said.

In its report titled ”The Stress Fractures In Indian Financial Institutions”, S&P said with loan repayment moratoriums having ended on August 31, 2020, NPLs in the banking sector will likely shoot up to 10-11 percent of gross loans in the next 12-18 months, from 8 percent on June 30, 2020.

According to S&P, the banking system’s credit costs will remain elevated at 2.2-2.9 percent this year and next. ”Resumption of economic activity, government credit guarantees for small to mid-size enterprises, and buoyant liquidity is helping to limit stress. Our NPL estimates are lower than previous but we are still of the view that the sector’s financial strength will not materially recover until fiscal 2023 (ended March 31, 2023),” it said.

According to S&P, 3-8 percent of loans could get restructured. Banks and non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) have also been strengthening their balance sheets and bolstering their equity bases. Banks have also been building reserves and creating excess COVID provisions, which in our view should help them smooth the hit from COVID-related losses.

Also Read: RBI’s proposed corporate ownership of Indian banks poses high risks, says S&P Global Rating

”For NBFCs we rate, performance has been improving. Like with banks, collections have surged for NBFCs. Top-tier NBFCs are benefiting from surplus system liquidity, as indicated by a sharp reduction in risk premiums. Weaker finance companies, however, have faced higher risk premiums. We expect such polarisation to persist in 2021,” S&P added.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI’s proposed corporate ownership of Indian banks poses high risks, says S&P Global Ratings

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The recommendations made by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) working group on allowing corporate ownership in banks given India’s weak corporate governance amid large corporate defaults over the past few years pose a potential risk, said S&P Global Ratings.

The agency believes that RBI will face challenges in supervising nonfinancial sector entities and supervisory resources could be further strained at a time when the health of India’s financial sector is weak.

According to S&P Global, the working group’s concerns regarding conflict of interest, the concentration of economic power, and financial stability in allowing corporates to own banks are potential risks.

“Corporate ownership of banks raises the risk of intergroup lending, diversion of funds, and reputational exposure. Also, the risk of contagion from corporate defaults to the financial sector increases significantly,” the global rating agency said in a report.

Read here: RBI report favours large corporates owning banks

The agency noted the fact that the performance of India’s corporate sector over the past few years has been weak with large corporate defaults. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) for the corporate sector stood at around 13 percent of total corporate loans as of March 2020 (around 18% as of March 2018), highlighting the more pronounced risk in India compared with other countries.

The agency also pointed out that the performance of new banks set up in India over the past three decades has been mixed. Of the 14 new universal bank licenses issued by the RBI since 1993, Global Trust Bank and Yes Bank Ltd. had to be bailed out by government-owned banks. In addition, three banks were eventually acquired by HDFC Bank Ltd., while ICICI Bank Ltd. and IDBI Bank Ltd. merged with their parents, it said.

“Nevertheless, RBI has adopted a very calibrated approach in awarding new licenses. A change in regulation by itself would not lead to RBI liberally allowing corporates to start a bank. The RBI’s fit and proper criteria for banks give it large latitude in decision-making,” the report added.

Also Read: VIEW: A nation gets the banks it deserves

Meanwhile, the recommendation to harmonize licensing guidelines for all banks, new and old, will help restore a level playing field for all players, it said.

The RBI’s proposal to raise the minimum net worth for all universal banks to Rs 10 billion will also ensure better capitalization and that only promoters with deep pockets can enter the banking sector.

In addition, the recommendations would limit the size of shadow banking in India and ensure stronger supervision. RBI proposes that only well-managed NBFCs with over 10 years of experience and Rs 500 billion of assets will be allowed to convert to a bank.

S&P believes the NBFCs have numerous strengths that will give them a headstart in their entry into banking. These include their existing client bases, distribution networks, brand and risk management systems. Conversion to a banking entity could provide more stable funding, in particular low cost deposits, it said.

Also Read: RBI report on private bank ownership signals a big shift in stance; here’s what experts say

The agency does not expect the competitive banking environment in India to deteriorate with these new licenses. This is because the finance companies that are converting into banks will have huge upfront regulatory costs. They will incur additional costs in terms of cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio requirements; priority sector lending; and adjusting their existing portfolios to reduce concentration in one segment, it said.

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RBI’s swift resolution of Lakshmi Vilas Bank to maintain sector stability:S&P

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Reserve Bank of India’s swift resolution of troubled Lakshmi Vilas Bank will keep contagion at bay and help maintain stability in the banking system. The Reserve Bank has proposed merging Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) with DBS Bank India Ltd (DBIL). As part of the proposal, DBIL, the wholly-owned subsidiary of Singapore-based DBS Bank, will inject Rs 2,500 crore into the merged entity to support its financial position.

S&P said this deal is positive for India’s banking sector and will bring much-needed relief to LVB, which has been struggling for many years. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had put the private-sector lender under prompt corrective action (PCA, or under watch by the central bank) in September 2019, and the search for a white knight had been on since then.

”The RBI’s swift resolution of troubled Lakshmi Vilas Bank will keep contagion at bay and help maintain stability in the banking system. We believe the RBI took into account DBIL’s healthy balance sheet and capitalization when considering potential suitors for LVB,” S&P said. LVB, which has only a 0.2 per cent market share, is the only non-government-owned bank under PCA. Recently, the shareholders of LVB at their annual meeting ousted seven directors of the bank, including its managing director and CEO. The RBI had to step in and appoint a panel comprising three independent directors, S&P said.

The US-based rating agency said it has always viewed the Indian government as highly supportive of the banking sector as it has consistently supported weak commercial banks by promoting the merger of distressed institutions with stronger lenders. It has historically not allowed commercial banks to fail and has swiftly stepped in to address the trouble. In this case also, the RBI and the government stepped quickly to prevent any loss to the creditors, including depositors, and maintain system stability.

”In our view, the RBI’s decision to consider a foreign bank, beyond just homegrown institutions, to bail out LVB demonstrates its willingness to put control of banking assets in foreign entities,” S&P said. In the bailout of private sector Yes Bank Ltd earlier this year, the RBI called upon the government-controlled State Bank of India and other large Indian banks for capital support.

S&P said the acquisition of LVB will not materially affect the financial position of DBS. LVB is small when compared to DBS, accounting for less than 1 percent of the group’s total assets. That said, LVB will significantly expand DBIL’s footprint in India. As of September 30, 2020, LVB had 563 branches, compared with DBIL’s 27.

”The merger could provide a DBIL with meaningful physical presence, which we believe is needed to complement the digital strategy the bank is already pursuing in India. LVB will also help DBS penetrate deeper into southern parts of India,” S&P added.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

S&P affirms China; flags risk to growth from coronavirus, tensions with US

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings on Monday affirmed China’s sovereign credit ratings at ‘A+/A-1’ with a stable outlook, amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

S&P said China is likely to maintain above-average economic growth relative to other middle-income economies in the next few years.

However, it said that the growth is likely to come under pressure from the coronavirus outbreak, efforts to restructure the Chinese economy and US-China tensions.

The agency noted that it does not expect US-China relations to normalize in the foreseeable future.”We expect per capita real GDP growth to average 5.5 percent annually in 2021-2023, as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 shock”, S&P said on Monday.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Cos in India face further rating downside, in case of prolonged downturn: S&P Global

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Ratings agency S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said companies in India face further potential rating downside if the recovery in corporate earnings is prolonged beyond 18 months.

About 35 percent of credit ratings on Indian corporates have either a negative outlook or are on “CreditWatch” with negative implications, S&P Global ratings said in a statement.

“That increases to one-in-two ratings if we exclude debt-free companies in the IT sector,” it added.

Commenting on scenario, S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Neel Gopalakrishnan said, “for most of our ratings, we assume corporate earnings will recover over the next 12-18 months. There is downside risk to ratings if the downturn becomes more prolonged than we had expected.”

All but two out of seven companies with negative outlooks or on CreditWatch negative have speculative-grade ratings. Since these companies are more sensitive to earnings volatility, the downside risk increases even further, Gopalakrishnan added.

The ratings agency said corporates in India, especially the speculative-grade ones, were not well positioned for a downturn because of their debt-funded capital expenditure and acquisitions over the past two to three years.

“This had already led to lower ratings. The number of single ‘B’ ratings, for example, increased to about 33 per cent of total ratings at the end of 2019, from 13 per cent in 2016. However, most India companies had limited rating headroom for a downturn, especially one as sudden and sharp as the COVID-19 pandemic,” it said.

Given the weakened operating environment, S&P Global Ratings said it expects EBITDA for companies in sectors sensitive to the economy, such as automobiles and commodities, to drop as much as 25-30 per cent year-on-year this fiscal.

“We therefore, expect credit metrics to weaken in fiscal 2021 before recovering in fiscal 2022 with an earnings rebound. The credit metrics at the end of fiscal 2022 are still likely to be weaker than we had previously expected, resulting in lower ratings than prior to the pandemic,” it said.

S&P had taken negative rating actions on eight of the 19 rated India corporates in the past three months.

The ratings agency said businesses in sectors such as telecom, technology, and pharmaceuticals have been more resilient, in line with global trends.

The two positive outlooks that S&P Global Ratings currently has are on companies in the IT and pharmaceutical sectors, it said, however adding “the sectors are not without risk from a rating perspective”.

“How quickly India companies recover after the lockdown would be crucial to the rating outlooks or CreditWatch resolution,” S&P Global Ratings said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

S&P projects Indian economy to contract 5% in FY21

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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S&P Global Ratings on Thursday forecast Indian economy to contract 5 percent in the current fiscal as the lockdown imposed to contain COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed economic activity severely.

“We have lowered our growth forecast for fiscal year ending March 2021 to a 5 percent contraction… We currently assume that the outbreak peaks by the third quarter,” S&P said in a statement.

Earlier this week rating agencies Fitch and Crisil too had projected a 5 percent contraction for the Indian economy.

“The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown — longer in some areas — have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year. Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world,” S&P said in a statement.

COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India. New cases have been averaging more than 6,000 a day over the past week as authorities begin easing stringent lockdown restrictions gradually to prevent economic costs from blowing out further.

Policymakers have grouped geographical zones into red, orange, or green categories based on the number of cases.

Areas currently classified as red zones are also economically significant, and the authorities could extend mobility restrictions.

“We believe economic activity in these places will take longer to normalize. This will have knock-on impacts on countrywide supply chains, which will slow the overall recovery… We expect varying degrees of containment measures and economic resumption across India during this transition,” S&P said.

Service sectors, which account for high shares of employment, have been severely affected, thus leading to large-scale job losses across the country. Workers have been geographically displaced as migrant workers travelled back home before the lockdown, and this will take time to unwind as lockdown measures are lifted.

“We expect that employment will remain depressed over the transition period,” it added.

The rating agency said India has limited room to maneuver on policy support. The Reserve Bank of India cut policy rates by 40 basis points in May, meaning the repo rate is 115 basis points lower since February.

“Despite the cuts, India banks have been unwilling to extend credit. Small and mid-size enterprises continue to face restricted access to credit markets despite some policy measures aimed at easing financing for the sector,” S&P added.

Also Read: India’s Q1 GDP may fall by 40%, says SBI report

It said The government’s stimulus package, with a headline amount of 10 percent of GDP, has about 1.2 percent of direct stimulus measures, which is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic.

The remaining 8.8 percent of the package includes liquidity support measures and credit guarantees that will not directly support growth.

S&P said the big hit to growth will mean a large, permanent economic loss and a deterioration in balance sheets throughout the economy.

It said the risks around the path of recovery will depend on three key factors. First, the speed with which the COVID-19 outbreak comes under control.

Faster flattening of the curve — in other words, reducing the number of new cases — will potentially allow faster normalization of activity. Second, a labour market recovery will be key to getting the economy running again.

Finally, the ability of all sectors of the economy to restore their balance sheets following the adverse shock will be important. The longer the duration of the shock, the longer recovery, it said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

S&P Global lowers ICICI Bank, Axis Bank rating outlook to Negative

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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S&P Global Ratings has revised the rating outlooks on Axis Bank and ICICI Bank to Negative from Stable due to heightened economic risks facing India’s banking system that may affect the creditworthiness of these banks.

“In our base case, other private-sector peers such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank have stronger asset quality and would be able to withstand the weakness in operating conditions,” S&P Global said.

The rating agency has affirmed the ratings on all other Indian banks and their outstanding issuances. At the same time, the agency has revised downward its assessment of the stand-alone credit SACP of Indian Bank by one notch to ‘bb+’.

S&P Global believes that Indian banks face increasing risks stemming from challenging operating conditions following the COVID-19 pandemic. “We expect a flattish U-shape economic recovery. Risks remain on the downside and could lead to few banks being downgraded,” it added.

The agency expects Indian banks’ asset quality to deteriorate, credit costs to rise, and profitability to decline. It has revised the economic risk trend for the banking system to Negative from Stable. Other banking industry scores remain unaffected.

“While Indian banks are not entering this slowdown from a position of strength, they have been on the recovery path for the past 12-18 months. The economic slowdown will defer the improvement by a year, in our opinion,” it said.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow