Tag: Russia-Ukraine war

Putin appoints Sergei Shoigu as secretary of Russia’s national security council

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, May 12, proposed replacing Sergei Shoigu as defence minister and appointed him as secretary of Russia’s national security council. The appointment comes after Putin proposed appointing Andrei Belousov as the country’s defence minister in place of Shoigu, who has served in the post for years. The reshuffle comes as Putin starts his fifth presidential term and as the war in Ukraine drags on for the third year.

In line with Russian law, the entire Russian Cabinet resigned on Tuesday following Putin’s glittering inauguration in the Kremlin.

The announcement came as thousands more civilians have fled Russia’s renewed ground offensive in Ukraine’s northeast that has targeted towns and villages with a barrage of artillery and mortar shelling, officials said.

The intense battles have forced at least one Ukrainian unit to withdraw in the Kharkiv region, capitulating more land to Russian forces across less defended settlements in the so-called contested gray zone along the Russian border.

The town of Vovchansk, among the largest in the northeast with a prewar population of 17,000, emerged as a focal point in the battle.

Volodymyr Tymoshko, the head of the Kharkiv regional police, said that Russian forces were on the outskirts of the town and approaching from three directions.

“Infantry fighting is already taking place,” he said.

A Russian tank was spotted along a major road leading to the town, Tymoshko said, illustrating Moscow’s confidence to deploy heavy weaponry.

An Associated Press team, positioned in a nearby village, saw plumes of smoke rising from the town as Russian forces hurled shells. Evacuation teams worked nonstop throughout the day to take residents, most of whom were older, out of harm’s way.

At least 4,000 civilians have fled the Kharkiv region since Friday, when Moscow’s forces launched the operation, Gov Oleh Syniehubov said in a social media statement. Heavy fighting raged Sunday along the northeast front line, where Russian forces attacked 27 settlements in the past 24 hours, he said.

Analysts say the Russian push is designed to exploit ammunition shortages before promised Western supplies can reach the front line.

Ukrainian soldiers said that the Kremlin is using the usual Russian tactic of launching a disproportionate amount of fire and infantry assaults to exhaust their troops and firepower. In what was previously a static patch of the front line, Russian forces threaten to pin down Ukrainian forces in the northeast, while carrying out intense battles farther south where Moscow is also gaining ground.

It comes after Russia stepped up attacks in March targeting energy infrastructure and settlements, which analysts predicted were a concerted effort to shape conditions for an offensive.

Meanwhile, a 10-story apartment building partially collapsed in the Russian city of Belgorod, near the border, killing at least eight people and injuring 20 others. Russian authorities said that the building collapsed following Ukrainian shelling. Ukraine hasn’t commented on the incident.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that halting Russia’s offensive in the northeast was a priority, and that Kyiv’s troops were continuing counteroffensive operations in seven villages around the Kharkiv region.

“Disrupting the Russian offensive intentions is our No. 1 task now. Whether we succeed in that task depends on every soldier, every sergeant, every officer,” Zelenskyy said.

The Russian Defence Ministry said that its forces had captured four villages on the border along Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, in addition to five villages reported to have been seized on Saturday. These areas were likely poorly fortified because of the dynamic fighting and constant heavy shelling, easing a Russian advance.

Ukraine’s leadership hasn’t confirmed Moscow’s gains. But Tymoshko said that Strilecha, Pylna and Borsivika were under Russian occupation, and it was from their direction they were bringing in infantry to stage attacks in other embattled villages of Hlyboke and Lukiantsi.

Russian tactics in Vovchansk mirror those used in the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, he said, in which heavy aerial attacks were accompanied by droves of infantry assaults.

“Now the Russians are simply wiping it (Vovchansk) off the face of the earth and advancing with the scorched earth method. That is, they first scorch a specific area and then the infantry comes in, and they always advance in this way,” he said.

A Ukrainian unit said that they had been forced to retreat in some areas and that Russian forces had captured at least one more village late Saturday.

In a video Saturday evening, the Hostri Kartuzy unit, part of the special forces’ detachment of Ukraine’s national guard, said that they were fighting for control of the village of Hlyboke.

“Today, during heavy fighting, our defenders were forced to withdraw from a few more of their positions, and today, another settlement has come completely under Russian control. As of 20:00, fighting for the village of Hlyboke is ongoing,” the fighters said in the clip.

The Institute for the Study of War said that it believed claims that Moscow had captured Strilecha, Pylna, Pletenivka and Borsivika were accurate, and that geolocated footage also appeared to show that Russian forces have seized Morokhovets and Oliinykove. The Washington-based think tank described the recent Russian gains as “tactically significant.” In the war’s early days, Russia made a botched attempt to quickly storm Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second-largest city, but retreated from its outskirts after about a month. In the fall of 2022, seven months later, Ukraine’s army pushed them out of Kharkiv. The bold counterattack helped persuade Western countries that Ukraine could defeat Russia on the battlefield and merited military support.

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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Russia faces shortage of oil and gas industry workers amid mobilisation of economy for war

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Russia’s oil and gas industry has been crucial for bankrolling the invasion of Ukraine, giving the Kremlin the funds to keep fighting even as the conflict drags on through its third year. But the industry is facing a shortage of manpower as the full mobilization of Russia’s economy for war exacerbates a longstanding demographic crunch.

In a nation where Gazprom PJSC’s “Dreams Come True” slogan has long summed up the career aspirations of many citizens, high-paying energy companies now find themselves having to compete for workers against the Russian army and weapons manufacturers, according to analysts and recruiters working with the industry. The sign-up bonus alone for a soldier fighting in Ukraine may be equivalent to nearly a year’s salary for an average oil and gas field worker.

This problem isn’t entirely new — Russia has faced a shrinking working-age population for almost two decades. The collapse in birth rates in the 1990s was a root cause and the Covid pandemic added to the challenge, but the invasion of Ukraine has made it much more acute.

Lack of personnel is now hitting businesses across all parts of the economy, according to recent reports from Russia’s central bank. While the oil and gas industry appears to be ticking along smoothly, there may be a longer-term impact.

“Staff shortages have affected even the wealthy industries,” said Alexei Zakharov, president of online recruiter Superjob.ru. “The oil and gas sector can afford to attract employees with higher salaries, but the state competes by offering military contracts.”

Russia’s oil and gas sector lacks some 40,000 employees this year, according to estimates from Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting, formerly Deloitte’s research center in the region. The industry raised the number of online job listings in the first quarter by 24% compared to a year before, looking not just for qualified personnel but also low-skilled workers, show data from major Russian recruitment platform hh.ru.

“This industry has open vacancies for electricians, drivers, mechanics, welders, machinists, general workers, sales managers, design engineers, salesmen,” said Anna Osipova, head of regional external communications at hh.ru.

Russia’s Energy Ministry didn’t respond to Bloomberg request for comment.

The oil and gas industry has long been one of Russia’s highest-paying employers, offering a wage that exceeded the national average by at least two thirds since 2017, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Federal Statistics Service. In January and February, the monthly nominal salary in the industry — including workers in oil and gas production, services, refining, pipeline shipments and storage — averaged some 125,200 rubles ($1,340).

That sum no longer competes with what the Russian army is offering to contract soldiers. In addition to the flat nationwide sign-on bonus of 195,000 rubles, each Russian region offers its own one-time payment to a new recruit, rising to as much as 1 million rubles.

“Competition with salaries in the armed forces and military industrial complex has certainly had an impact,” on workforce availability for the Russian oil and gas industry, said Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Moscow-based Kasatkin Consulting.

If a worker doesn’t want to fight in Ukraine – where the UK Ministry of Defence estimates more than 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since President Vladimir Putin decided to invade in February 2022 — there are also lucrative contracts available with military manufacturers. Demand for tanks, armored vehicles and weapons has soared and arms factories have been searching for workers in the tight labor market.

Last year, Russia’s state defense corporation, Rostec, raised salaries by an average 17.2%. “We still need people,” Chief Executive Officer Sergey Chemezov told Vladimir Putin in August. “Many of our facilities have been working on the weekends, on bank holidays, and at night.”

Demographic Crunch

Putin’s decision to mobilize Russia’s economy for war has worsened a longstanding demographic problem.

In the 1990s, the economic turmoil after the breakup of the Soviet Union sent fertility rates plunging. Between 2007 and the end of 2021, the nation’s working-age population shrank by 5.8 million people, according to statistical data. The pandemic exacerbated the issue. From 2020 to 2022, almost 750,000 people died in Russia with Covid-19 listed as the main cause, according to Federal Statistics Service data.

The share of employees under 30 years in the Russian labor market dropped to 14.9% in 2022, the lowest since early 1990, according to estimates of audit and consulting firm FinExpertiza.

Another consequence of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has been to limit the flow of laborers from abroad. International sanctions have weakened the ruble, boosted inflation and complicated international money transfers, making Russia less attractive for migrants from ex-Soviet countries. Last year, the official net inflow of foreign migrants into the country was almost 110,000 people, just a quarter of the level in 2021, the last year of statistics before the war started.

That level of immigration is just a drop in the ocean compared with Russia’s demand for labor. At the end of March, the nation needed 1.86 million extra workers, according to data from Federal Statistics Service based on companies’ requests to job centers.

Employee Perks

“The northern regions are starving for more workforce, there are just not enough people,“ said Denis, a 41 year-old who left the Russian energy industry last August to pursue another career in Moscow.

As salaries alone are not enough to attract a new workforce, Russian oil and gas companies, which often run their core operations in remote areas with harsh climates, have been offering further perks.

A field worker doing monthly shifts somewhere in Siberia or the Arctic can expect “hot meals three times a day” and regular medical check-ups covered by the employer, according to job listings at hh.ru. Some employers also throw in Soviet-style incentives such as “New-Year presents for kids” and trips to corporate resorts, according to recent listings on the site.

To widen the circle of potential employees, some companies have introduced a policy of “bring your friend and get paid,” offering around $50 to $100 per new hire. That’s not much by western standards, but in Russia it’s enough to buy the minimum level of food necessary for one person for a month.

All those perks are still not enough to lure the most desirable young skilled workers to the energy industry. That’s forcing companies to turn to older workers.

“The oil industry used to encourage people to retire on time — You are close to the retirement age? Here’s a big bonus for you and we’ll see you off with honor, to make room for the younger generation,” said Superjob.ru’s Zakharov. Now the companies are phasing these programs out and encouraging the personnel “to work as long as possible,” he said.

Key Industry

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s oil and gas sector has been targeted by an ever-tightening net of international sanctions designed to curb the flow of petrodollars. Yet the industry has continued to operate smoothly, giving Moscow the funds needed to keep sending soldiers to the front line and purchase weapons to attack Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Last year’s oil-production drilling rates set a post-Soviet record, while Russia’s crude exports remain robust even as the country makes output cuts in partnership with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The country’s natural gas production is rebounding after a sharp drop in 2022 and 2023 when pipeline flows to Europe were mostly halted. The government expects pipeline exports of the fuel to recover by almost a fifth this year due to higher flows to China.

The labor shortages raise questions about whether Russia’s oil and gas industry can sustain this performance in the longer-term.

“Restricted access to Western high-tech oil services creates a risk for maintaining and increasing profitable production and refining of oil and gas,” said Sofia Mangileva, an analyst at Moscow-based consultant Yakov & Partners. “The lack of qualified personnel aggravates this challenge, since the task now is not only to operate the equipment, but also to develop our own technologies.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Russia breached global chemical weapons ban, used choking agents in Ukraine: US claims

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The United States has imposed sweeping sanctions on several Russian firms and government bodies, accusing the country of violating the international chemical weapons ban by deploying chloropicrin — a choking agent — against the Ukrainian troops, besides using riot control agents ‘as a method of warfare’ in Ukraine.

“The United States is today sanctioning more than 280 individuals and entities to impose additional costs on Russia for both its foreign aggression and internal repression,” read a statement from the State Department.

The Department of State has imposed sanctions on over 80 entities and individuals, including the ones that are engaged in the development of Russia’s future energy, metals, and mining production and export capacity.

Further, it has determined that Russia has used chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

“The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield,” the statement read.

Chloropicrin has been listed as a banned choking agent by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which is based in the Hague. The organisation was created to implement and monitor compliance with the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), Reuters reported.

During World War I, the German forces are believed to have fired the gas against Allied troops in one of the first uses of a chemical weapon.

Earlier, the Ukrainian military had alleged that Russia has stepped up its ‘illegal’ use of riot control agents to press its biggest advances in eastern Ukraine.

Besides chloropicrin, the Russian forces are also believed to have used grenades loaded with CS and CN gases, the Ukrainian military claimed. Further, it stated that around 500 Ukrainian soldiers have been treated for exposure to toxic substances, while one of them died by suffocating on tear gas.

On Wednesday, the US State Department announced that it was delivering to Congress its determination that Moscow’s use of chloropicrin against the Ukrainian troops violated the Chemical Weapons Convention.

The country’s use of chloropicrin “comes from the same playbook as its operations to poison” late opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2020 as well as Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in 2018 with the Novichok nerve agent, read the statement.

On its behalf, Russia had earlier denied involvement in both cases.

This comes as Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of breaching the treaty during the OPCW meetings. However, the organisation has stated that it has not been formally asked to start an investigation into the alleged use of prohibited substances in Ukraine.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US sanctions over 300 companies for supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The US on Wednesday announced sanctions on nearly 300 companies and individuals, including in China and the United Arab Emirates, for alleged support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to the US Treasury Department, the Chinese firms include Hong Kong-based Finder Technology Ltd., which is accused of exporting 293 shipments of drone parts and other electronics, Juhang Aviation Technology Shenzhen Co., which is accused of providing Russia with drone propellers, signal jammers, sensors and engines; and Zhongcheng Heavy Equipment Defense Technology Group Co. Ltd., which is accused of supplying the paramilitary Wagner Group.

Treasury also targeted for the first time manufacturers and suppliers of cotton cellulose and nitrocellulose, which are precursors for making gunpowder, rocket propellant and other explosives. A combination of Russian and Chinese companies were sanctioned for being involved in the trade of those materials.

The move comes shortly after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Chinese officials the US would take action against any firms that helped Russia’s military procurement efforts.

Yellen said in a statement Wednesday that the sanctions, along with recently enacted additional funding for Ukraine, mean that the country has a “critical leg-up on the battlefield.”

She had foreshadowed parts of Wednesday’s announcement in remarks April 8 in Beijing, when she said that “companies, including those in the PRC, must not provide material support for Russia’s war and that they will face significant consequences if they do.”

Yellen had also cautioned that day that the US might sanction Chinese banks that were involved in “significant transactions that channel military or dual-use goods” to Russia. However, no financial institutions based in China were named in Wednesday’s announcement.

China-based Hengshui Heshuo Cellulose Co. Ltd. and Hengshui Yuanchem Trading Ltd. are accused of shipping large quantities of nitrocellulose to Russia.

The Treasury Department also sanctioned UAE-based Albait Al Khaleeje General Trading LLC for acting as a conduit for sanctioned goods to Russia. The company, which advertises itself as an auto parts exporter, has been involved in more than 6,800 shipments to Russian customers, according to the department.

In addition, the US expanded restrictions against Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, including a Singapore-based company, a Hong-Kong-based entity and almost two dozens vessels. US has also designated 12 entities within the Sibanthracite group of companies, one of Russia’s largest producers of metallurgical coal. A popular budget airline Pobeda was also sanctioned.

The State Department determined that Russia used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops and levied sanctions against companies and individuals it says have aided Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs in violation of sanctions and other restrictions.

The department also sanctioned three individuals in connection with the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny at a Russian prison.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

A top Russian military official reportedly linked to Ukraine’s Mariupol arrested for bribe-taking

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A top Russian military official was arrested on suspicion of accepting a bribe, authorities said Tuesday, a high-profile arrest that comes as Moscow’s war in Ukraine is in its third year.

Timur Ivanov, 48, one of Russia’s 12 deputy defense ministers, was sanctioned by both the United States and the European Union in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that both President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were informed about the arrest.

The Investigative Committee, Russia’s top law enforcement agency, reported Ivanov’s detention without offering any details of the accusations against him, saying only that he is suspected of taking an especially large bribe — a criminal offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

According to the defense ministry’s website, Ivanov was appointed to the post in 2016 by a presidential decree and oversaw property management, housing and medical support for the military, construction and reconstruction of facilities.

Russian media claimed that he was in charge, among other things, of some of the construction in Mariupol — a port city in Ukraine’s partially occupied Donestk region which was heavily bombarded and occupied by Russian forces early on in the war in 2022.

Zvezda, the official TV channel of the Russian military, reported in the summer of 2022 that the ministry “is building an entire residential block” in the severely damaged city and showed Ivanov inspecting construction sites.

That same year, the team of late Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader and anti-corruption campaigner, alleged that Ivanov and his family had been living an extravagant life full of luxurious trips abroad, lavish parties and elite real estate.

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As US Secretary of State Blinken heads to China, these are the major divides he will try to bridge

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken is starting three days of talks with senior Chinese officials in Shanghai and Beijing this week with US-China ties at a critical point over numerous global disputes.

The mere fact that Blinken is making the trip — shortly after a conversation between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a similar visit to China by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a call between the US and Chinese defense chiefs — might be seen by some as encouraging, but ties between Washington and Beijing are tense and the rifts are growing wider.

From Russia and Ukraine to Israel, Iran and the broader Middle East as well as Indo-Pacific and trade issues, the US and China are on a series of collision courses that have sparked fears about military and strategic security as well as international economic stability.

Blinken “will raise clearly and candidly our concerns” during the talks starting Wednesday, a senior State Department official said.

Here’s a look at some of the key issues Blinken is expected to bring up on the trip:

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

The Biden administration has grown increasingly concerned in recent months about Chinese support for Russia’s defense industrial base, which US officials say is allowing Moscow to overcome Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine and resupply its military. US officials say this will be a primary topic of conversation during Blinken’s visit.

While the US says it has no evidence China actually is arming Russia, officials say other activities are potentially equally problematic.

“If China purports on the one hand to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it can’t on the other hand be fueling what is the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War,” Blinken said last week.

A senior State Department official said Friday that “through Chinese support, Russia has largely reconstituted its defense industrial base, which has an impact not just on the battlefield in Ukraine but poses a larger threat, we believe, to broader European security.”

MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

US officials, from Biden on down, have repeatedly appealed to China to use any leverage it may have with Iran to prevent Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza from spiraling into a wider regional conflict.

While China appears to have been generally receptive to such calls — particularly because it depends heavily on oil imports from Iran and other Mideast nations — tensions have steadily increased since the beginning of the Gaza war in October and more recent direct strikes and counterstrikes between Israel and Iran.

Blinken has pushed for China to take a more active stance in pressing Iran not to escalate tensions in the Middle East. He has spoken to his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, several times over the past six months and urged China to tell Iran to restrain the proxy groups it has supported in the region, including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.

Blinken told Wang in a phone call this month that “escalation is not in anyone’s interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of their last conversation.

The senior State Department official said Blinken would reiterate the US interest in China using “whatever channels or influence it has to try to convey the need for restraint to all parties, including Iran.”

TAIWAN AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

In the Indo-Pacific region, China and the United States are the major players, but Beijing has become increasingly aggressive in recent years toward Taiwan and its smaller Southeast Asian neighbors with which it has significant territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

The US has strongly condemned Chinese military exercises threatening Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province and has vowed to reunify with the mainland by force if necessary. Successive US administrations have steadily boosted military support and sales for Taipei, much to Chinese anger.

The senior State Department official said Blinken would “underscore, both in private and public, America’s abiding interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. We think that is vitally important for the region and the world.”

In the South China Sea, the US and others have become increasingly concerned by provocative Chinese actions in and around disputed areas.

In particular, the US has voiced objections to what it says are Chinese attempts to thwart legitimate maritime activities by others in the sea, notably the Philippines and Vietnam. That was a major topic of concern this month when Biden held a three-way summit with the prime minister of Japan and the president of the Philippines.

HUMAN RIGHTS AND SYNTHETIC OPIOIDS

The US and China are at deep odds over human rights in China’s western Xinjiang region, Tibet and Hong Kong as well as the fate of several American citizens that the State Department says have been “wrongfully detained” by Chinese authorities.

China has repeatedly rejected the American criticism as improper interference in its internal affairs. Yet, Blinken will again raise these issues, according to the senior State Department official, who added that China’s self-described efforts to rein in the export of materials that traffickers use to make fentanyl have yet to yield significant results.

The two sides agreed last year to set up a working group to look into ways to combat the surge of production of fentanyl precursors in China and their export abroad. US officials say they believe they had made some limited progress on cracking down on the illicit industry but many producers had found ways to get around new restrictions.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Global military expenditure touched an all-time high of $2.4 trillion in 2023: Report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Global military expenditure in 2023 witnessed its steepest increase in more than a decade, touching an all-time high of $2.4 trillion, as per a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), news agency AFP reported.

This was fuelled by the wars and rising global tensions. The report stated that military spending in Europe, Asia and Middle East witnessed a particularly large increase.

AFP quoted a senior researcher at SIPRI, Nan Tian as saying that for the first since since 2009, military spending rose across all five geographical regions.

The report stated that military spending increased by 6.8% in 2023, its steepest year-on-year increase since 2009, AFP reported.

Tian told the news agency that the increased military spending was a reflection of the deteriorating peace and security across the world.

The top five spenders were the United States, China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia, AFP reported citing the report.

Tian said the continuation of the Ukraine war led to a rise in military spending in Russia and Ukraine and many of the European countries. As per SIPRI’s estimates, Russia’s spending increased by 24% in 2023, reaching $109 billion.

Ever since Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, its military spending has increased by 57%.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s military spending increased by 51% to $64.8 billion. However, it also got military aid of $35 billion, majority of which came from the US. As per this, the combined spending and aid equalled over nine tenths of the spendings of Russia.

Tian told AFP that even though Russia and Ukraine’s overall budgets were more or less close in 2023, Kyiv’s military spending was 37% of its GDP and 50% of the entire government spending. On the other hand, Russia’s military spending equalled to 5.9% of its GDP. Tian added that Ukraine does not have as much room to increase its spending.

In Europe, Poland witnessed its largest increase in spending so far, increasing 75% to $31.6 billion, as per the report.

Military spending also increased across the Middle East, where Israel, which the second-largest spender in the region, witnesseda 24% increase in its expenditure to $27.5 billion last year. This was primarily driven by its offensive in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Middle East’s largest spender Saudi Arabia, also increased its spending by 4.3% to around $75.8 billion, the report stated.

The US, which spends the most on its military compared to other nations, increased its expenditure by 2.3% to $916 billion, as per the report. China’s military spending expanded for the 29th consecutive year by another 6% to around $296 billion.

Japan and Taiwan both upped their military expenditures by 11% each to %50.2 billion and $16.6 billion, respectively, in 2023.

India, which is the fourth largest spender in the world, increased its spending to $83.6 billion in 2023, a 4.3% rise in expenditure.

Increase in spending in the Caribbean and Central America were driven by struggles such as fighting organised crime. The Domincian Republic increased its expenditure by 14%, responding to the worsening gang violence in Haiti spilling over the border.

Africa also witnessed an increase in its military budgets. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s spending more than doubled by 105% to $794 million, the largest increase by any nation percentage-wise, as tensions increased in neighbouring Rwanda.

South Sudan witnessed the second-largest increase of 78% to $1.1 billion.

Tian told AFP that the expectation is that the increasing military expenditure trend is likely to continue for a few years.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Ukraine’s drone attacks target Russia’s energy infrastructure

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Ukraine launched a barrage of drones across Russia overnight, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said Saturday, in attacks that appeared to target the country’s energy infrastructure.

Fifty drones were shot down by air defences over eight Russian regions, including 26 over the country’s western Belgorod region close to the Ukrainian border. Two people — a woman with a broken leg and the man caring for her — died during the overnight barrage, after explosions sparked a blaze that set their home alight, Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on social media.

A pregnant woman and her unborn child were also killed in shelling later Saturday, he said.

Drones were also reportedly destroyed over the Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan and Kaluga regions across Russia’s west and south, and in the Moscow region.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said that it had shot down a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jet. It provided no details and the claims couldn’t be independently verified.

Ukrainian officials normally decline to comment about attacks on Russian soil. However, many of the drone strikes appeared to be directed toward Russia’s energy infrastructure.

The head of the Kaluga region, Vladislav Shapsha, said that a drone strike had sparked a blaze at an electrical substation, while Bryansk Gov. Alexander Bogomaz and Smolensk Gov. Vasily Anokhin also reported fires at fuel and energy complexes.

In recent months, Russian refineries and oil terminals have become priority targets of Ukrainian drone attacks, part of stepped-up assaults on Russian territory.

Ukrainian drone developers have been extending the weapons’ range for months, as Kyiv attempts to compensate for its battlefield disadvantage in weapons and troops. The unmanned aerial vehicles are also an affordable option while Ukraine waits for more U.S. military aid.

Moscow said Friday evening that an American citizen known to have fought with Kremlin-backed separatists in Ukraine between 2014 and 2017 had died in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region.

Russell Bentley, 64, was no longer involved in military operations and previously worked for state-owned Russian news agency Sputnik. His death was confirmed by his former battalion and by Margarita Simonyan, head of the state-funded television channel RT, who described him as “a real American.” He used the call sign “Texas” and had spent time in prison on charges of drug smuggling before leaving the United States.

No information has been released as to the cause of Bentley’s death, but local police had previously reported the American as missing on April 8.

Meanwhile, Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with seven missiles, and air defences downed two missiles and three reconnaissance drones, the Ukrainian air force said Saturday.

Gov. Oleh Kiper, head of Ukraine’s Odesa region, said that ballistic missiles had damaged infrastructure overnight, but didn’t provide further details. Previous attacks on the Black Sea city on Friday damaged port infrastructure, including two food export terminals, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Russian shelling also killed two men, including a 81-year-old retiree in the city of Vovchansk, said Gov. Oleh Syniehubov, head of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.

A 60-year-old woman was wounded after shelling struck a nine-story apartment building, he said.

A 54-year-old man was also killed in shelling in the Dnipropetrovsk region, local governor Serhii Lysak said.

Alongside the attacks, Ukrainian police said they were hunting for two Ukrainian soldiers who killed a police officer at a checkpoint in the country’s Vinnytsia region.

The troops opened fire on Maksym Zaretskyi, 20, in the early hours of Saturday morning after he stopped their car for a routine inspection. Zaretskyi’s partner was wounded, but survived the attack.

In a statement on social media, Ukraine’s Ground Forces Command confirmed that the two men were military personnel. They described Zaretskyi’s death as an “irreparable loss” and said that those guilty of his killing should be “punished severely.”

“Ground Forces Command will provide all possible assistance in a comprehensive and impartial investigation,” it said.

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Russia considers removing Taliban from terrorist list, fostering stronger ties

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Russia is currently considering taking the Taliban off its list of terrorist organisations, officials have indicated.

While no final decision has yet been taken, one sign of their increasingly cordial relationship is the Taliban’s invitation to an international economic forum being held in Kazan, Russia, in May. The Kremlin has opened up discussions with the Taliban before, and Russia was one of the few nations to accredit a diplomat when the organisation took control of Afghanistan.

But Afghanistan’s political and economic crisis and western sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war mean both sides have something to gain from a stronger relationship.

In 1999, the UN security council adopted resolution 1267, in which the Taliban was found responsible for “the provision of sanctuary and training for international terrorists”. A few months later, Vladimir Putin signed a decree implementing the UN resolution and imposing sanctions against the Taliban.

In 2003, the Russian supreme court recognised the Taliban movement as a terrorist organisation, saying it maintained links with illegal armed forces in Chechnya and tried to seize power in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia launched a regional initiative in 2017 to negotiate between the Kabul government and the Taliban as an effort to create a peacemaker role for itself.

These negotiations were aimed at offering solutions to the Afghanistan crisis, and were usually held with the participation of China, Iran, Pakistan and central Asian republics. Russia continued to maintain contact with the Taliban, despite labelling them a terrorist group.

Interests and goals

Since taking over control of Afghanistan, no foreign states have recognised the Taliban government. There are few signs yet that many are close to doing so, partly because of the Taliban’s continuing erosion of women’s rights and recognition of human rights more generally.

The Taliban wants international sanctions to be withdrawn, to take Afghanistan’s UN seat and for frozen assets to be released, which will help the country’s economic development.

Afghanistan should benefit economically from developing the important Lapis-Lazuli trade corridor which links Afghanistan to Istanbul and Europe, and the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan railway line, if international sanctions are withdrawn. Russia taking the Taliban off their terrorism list would be a first step toward international recognition for the current Afghan government.

Russia also benefits from its cooperation with the Taliban. It aims to present itself as the region’s security provider, especially compared to the US’s failure to create stability in Afghanistan. Moscow considers central Asia a zone of historical interest (the Soviet Union was involved in an armed conflict within Afghanistan from 1979-89).

It is also concerned about the stability of the region, drug trafficking and threats from Islamist terrorism, especially after the recent Isis-K attack on the Crocus City Hall, Moscow.

To increase its geoeconomic and geopolitical presence in the region, Russia can use the alliances it has already built – the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (a military alliance with Armenia Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, formed in 2002) and the Eurasian Economic Union (an economic union of five post-Soviet states). Russia’s 2023 foreign policy plan mentions prospects for Afghanistan’s integration into “the Eurasian space for cooperation”.

Russia’s relationship building

The increasing cooperation between the Taliban and Russia has implications in terms of the ongoing rivalry between Russia and the west. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Moscow has tried to get other nations to support its strategic view of why the war is happening.

This version of history and policy positions Russia as a protector of traditional religions and values and places it among major world civilisations, contrasting it with the “godless” west. It also details the right of civilisations to exist and develop within their own values, something that should appeal to the Taliban, and that Russia presents as a contrast to the west.

In 2022, Putin said: “Real democracy in a multipolar world is primarily about the ability of […] any civilisation to follow its own path and organise its own socio-political system. If the United States or the EU countries enjoy this right, then the countries of Asia, the Islamic states, the monarchies of the Persian Gulf […] certainly have this right as well.”

These ideas are popular in the Muslim world because they promise an alternative non-western order and recognise Islamic values as equal and fundamental, with no need to conform to the western interpretations of right and wrong.

The potential rapprochement with the Taliban is a sign to the Islamic world in particular, that, unlike the US, Russia is an ally that will not interfere in another country’s internal affairs or dictate its values.

Economically, and politically, the Taliban needs to cooperate with Moscow, but this doesn’t mean the Taliban trust Russian officials and their official line, or that they have forgotten the Soviet military campaign in Afghanistan. For now, having Moscow as an ally is extremely useful.

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This expert does not see oil prices receding much from current levels

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Vandana Hari, Founder and CEO of Vanda Insights, suggests that whether Brent crude stabilises around the $75 to $80 per barrel range or stays nearer to $85 to $90 per barrel depends largely on the developments in the conflicts between Iran and Israel, as well as Ukraine and Russia.

According to Vandana, the geopolitical tensions have resulted in a premium in crude of $12-15 per barrel taking it to $90 per barrel currently. “I don’t see that receding much,” she said.

She believes a substantial pullback will be needed. “Some sort of a ceasefire agreement, some temporary rapprochement in Ghaza and then followed by a more enduring peace deal over there. That premium remains intact. There is a bit of premium on account of the heightened warfare between Ukraine and Russia as well,” she explained.

Oil prices jumped $3 a barrel on Friday in reaction to unconfirmed reports on X that explosions had occurred in Iran, sparking concerns that Middle East oil supply could be disrupted.

Brent futures jumped $3.03, or 3.5%, to $90.14 a barrel by 0147 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $3.03, or 3.7%, to $85.76 per barrel.

Amrita Sen, Founder and Director-Research, Energy Aspects sees the potential for it to reach triple-digits if geopolitical tensions get out of hand.

“The one that is potentially a threat to supply and probably the biggest threat this year is Ukraine-Russia,” she said.

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) also indicated that with two to three months of contracts already in place, they may have headroom to deal with higher crude oil prices for now. However, if crude continues at $90 beyond May–June, it may pose some concerns. Brent crude prices have been hovering around this level since September last year, after the OPEC+ extended production cuts.

For more, watch the accompanying video

With inputs from agencies

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow