5 Minutes Read

Fidelity sees rupee as top carry trade pick on RBI’s tight grip

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Even while the rupee fell to a record in April, it remains the best-performing Asian currency this year. The currency is down just 0.2% against the dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht have declined more than 5%. 

The Indian central bank’s tight grip on the rupee is boosting the allure of the currency for carry trades, according to Fidelity International.

The rupee rewards investors with a high yield than regional peers, and together with low volatility, makes it “arguably one of the most attractive currencies on the planet,” Paul Greer, a money manager at Fidelity in London, said in an interview.

The Indian rupee is among the most stable Asian currencies, thanks to repeated interventions from the Reserve Bank of India, as it seeks to slow its decline near a record low. That strategy has its risks as traders may face losses in case of a sudden policy shift.

“When I look at the Indian rupee, I don’t think about it as an appreciation trade,” said Greer. “Because RBI has been so tight on both sides of the range, the carry-to-volatility ratio is what many investors are attracted to.”

Even while the rupee fell to a record in April, it remains the best-performing Asian currency this year. The currency is down just 0.2% against the dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht have declined more than 5%.

Underpinning the appeal of the rupee is that the RBI has kept interest rates unchanged, while some of its Latin American counterparts have been easing policy. The policy divergence has lured overseas funds into India, also driven by the inclusion of Indian bonds into JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global index.

India’s near-record foreign exchange reserves of $643 billion have also given the RBI firepower to intervene and curb rupee swings. The yield on benchmark 10-year bond at about 7.20% is the highest among major Asian markets, luring foreign investors.

“The real benefit of India is the carry, which is why a lot of people like it,” Greer said. “Over the coming months and quarters, many investors will be looking to build or add to exposure in this particular market.”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Rupee off record low on likely central bank intervention, Iranian official’s comment

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The rupee was at 83.5175 to the US dollar at 11:15 a.m. IST, marginally up from 83.5375 on Thursday. The currency had dropped to 83.5750, a lifetime low, in early trading.

The Indian rupee recovered after slipping to a record low on Friday, on likely intervention by the central bank and comments by an Iranian official that there was no missile attack on the country.

The rupee was at 83.5175 to the US dollar at 11:15 a.m. IST, marginally up from 83.5375 on Thursday. The currency had dropped to 83.5750, a lifetime low, in early trading.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely intervened in the onshore over-the-counter market and in non-deliverable forwards to help out the rupee, traders said.

The RBI “just completely knocked out” any thoughts “of a big push” higher on USD/INR, a FX trader said.

“I suspect a number of traders have been caught on the wrong side due to RBI’s resolute defence (of the rupee) and the clarification from Iran.”

Israel launched an attack on Iranian soil on Friday, sources said, in the latest tit-for-tat exchange between the two arch foes, whose decades of shadow war has broken out into the open and threatened to drag the region deeper into conflict.

Iranian media reported explosions, but an Iranian official told Reuters those were caused by air defense systems.

The Natanz nuclear site, the centrepiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, is in Isfahan province.

U.S. equity futures and Asian shares were off the worst levels for the session and Brent crude, having climbed past $90.50 at one point, was last at $88.86 a barrel.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

How low does the Rupee go when the Middle East erupts

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The recent flare-up between Iran and Israel has rattled global markets, leaving investors on edge about how it might shake up India’s markets and the value of the rupee.

In today’s tightly woven world, big world events like the recent flare-up between Iran and Israel rock the boat in financial markets. This latest showdown, coming right after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, is a stark wake-up call to just how much these global power struggles can mess with market stability.

To dive into the impact of the recent escalation, it is important to dig deeper into the historical trends in the currencies.

Instability in the Middle East holds significant sway over global oil markets, safe-haven assets, and currencies. As a crucial oil source, any disruption to its supply can trigger speculation-driven price hikes. These spikes historically influence global inflation rates and trade balances, particularly for countries like India heavily reliant on oil imports and, subsequently, currencies. However, it’s debatable whether these countries ( Israel, Palestine, Iran) contribute a sizable portion to the world’s oil market? Perhaps not directly, but the surrounding regions could be impacted. If major players like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or the UAE were to face similar instability, the true impact would become evident.

A list of conflicts in the Middle East since 2000 and how long it stayed:
• Second Intifada: September 2000 to February 2005
• Second Lebanon War: July 2006 to August 2006
• Gaza-Israel conflicts or Operation Cast Lead: December 2008 to January 2009
• Israel-Gaza conflict or Operation Protective Edge: July 2014 – August 2014
• Israel- Hamas war: Oct 2023 to till date

Out of the five major historical tensions, three cases saw wars lasting hardly a month with limited impact on the financial market. The first case, the Second Intifada, endured for 4.5 years but had a limited impact on the financial market. Furthermore, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has persisted for over six months, yet it has had a negligible impact on equities, as multiple global equities reached all-time highs during this period. Surprisingly, the yen, often considered a safe-haven currency, did not appreciate. However, gold soared to an all-time high due to central banks’ accumulation of the safe-haven asset in their reserves

Governement and central bank’s presence of mind

Over the past five years, it has been observed that governments and central banks take immediate steps to address uncertainties in the market. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk-off sentiment was short-lived, lasting only a couple of months. To support growth and economic activity, governments and central bankers swiftly eased their stance.

Also Read: Rupee vs US Dollar: INR falls to record low of 83.54 versus USD

Similarly, in 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, central banks intervened in the market to stabilise volatility and FX rates. For instance, in India, the RBI announced Sell-Buy swaps and utilized FX reserves. Additionally, during the 2023 US banking crisis, the impact on the global equity market remained minimal.

Similarly, during the Israel-Palestine war in October 2022, equities experienced modest declines of less than 2 to 3%, and oil prices remained relatively stable for the following months. Therefore, we believe that even if the Israel-Palestine-Iran conflict persists or escalates, global authorities will likely take measures to manage the situation.

Coming to the domestic factors and outlook on the Rupee during such geopolitical tension:

During wartime, crude oil prices typically soar due to concerns over supply disruptions. The possibility of Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel amidst escalating tensions in West Asia, and potentially remaining at that level in the near term, could impact key macro-indicators. According to analysis, crude oil at $100 per barrel could raise CPI inflation by 40 to 60 basis points (bps) from the RBI’s estimate, assuming full pass-through to retail consumers of automotive fuels. Additionally, it could inflate the oil import bill by $2 to $3 billion. Nevertheless, the aforementioned impacts may not fundamentally alter economic activity.

What could offset the impact of geopolitical tension?

1. RBI’s FX reserves: Over the past 1.5 years, the RBI has significantly bolstered its FX reserves, while maintaining the currency between $81.50 to $83.50 billion. After a decline to $528.37 billion in October 2022, they swiftly resumed accumulation, reaching an all-time high of $648.56 billion. In addition to foreign currency assets, the RBI has also been observed increasing its gold reserves, mirroring trends seen in other global central banks. These reserves serve as a robust pillar during periods of financial market uncertainty or significant outflows of hot money.

2. Stronger domestic fundamentals: Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) flows have remained robust throughout the calendar year 2024, boasting impressive inflows totaling $10 billion. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) holds substantial reserves, reaching a record high of $648 billion, providing a significant buffer during times of uncertainty. Furthermore, the trade balance reflects encouraging signs, standing at an 11-month low of $15.6 billion. In terms of economic indicators, inflation remains under control, hovering around 4.85%, while Industrial Production (IIP) growth stands at a healthy 5.7%. Moreover, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments (BoP) portray a balanced and favourable outlook. Lastly, both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) are outperforming those of peer and developed countries, underscoring the resilience and strength of India’s economic fundamentals. These factors collectively indicate a promising trajectory for the Rupee’s potential resurgence.

Outlook

Overall, we believe that the intensity of geopolitical tensions and their impact during proactive environments is minimal. Currently, governments and central banks have established a war-proof shield for their economies, prepared to take immediate action. Furthermore, being a net importing country, India can manage higher oil prices as the RBI always maintains a buffer and revisits projections. Amid the backdrop of global uncertainty, domestic fundamentals remain resilient. Therefore, we anticipate that pressure on the Rupee will be short-lived and restricted to levels between 83.50 to 83.70. In the near term, we foresee the Rupee moving towards 83 to 82.80, and over the medium term, between 82.50 to 82.00.

Also Read: Could rising global risks trigger an equities sell-off? Taimur Baig and Mark Matthews answer

Amit Pabari is Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors. The views expressed in this article are his own.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Rupee vs US Dollar: INR falls to record low of 83.54 versus USD

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The rupee fell to 83.54 vs the dollar at close, below the low of 83.53 hit earlier today. The currency settled at 83.45 vs the dollar on Monday.

The Indian rupee slipped to its record low against the US dollar on Tuesday, April 16 amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rupee fell to 83.53 vs the dollar at close, after falling to an all-time low 83.54 against greenback. The currency settled at 83.45 vs the dollar on Monday.

The dollar index — which measures the American currency against the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, the Swiss franc and the euro — was last trading marginally higher, above the 106 mark. The dollar index is at its highest level in nearly six months.

The value of the US dollar against a basket of six peers is inversely proportional to the value of the rupee. That is, if the value of the greenback rises, the value of the rupee depreciates, and vice versa.

Crude oil benchmarks slipped on concern about the escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the last count, Brent crude futures were trading 0.3% lower at $89.82 per barrel. WTI futures, too, were trading lower at $85.12 per barrel.

The rupee breached the 80 mark against the US dollar for the first time on July 19, 2022, and has since hit a series of lows.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

Rupee avoids record low despite slew of negative cues

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The rupee was at 83.4150 to the dollar at 9.52 a.m. IST compared with its previous close of 83.4375 and the 83.4550 record low hit on Thursday.

The Indian rupee was little changed on Friday amid expectations that the country’s central bank will intervene, which countered weak risk appetite, a stronger U.S. dollar and rising oil prices.

The rupee was at 83.4150 to the dollar at 9.52 a.m. IST compared with its previous close of 83.4375 and the 83.4550 record low hit on Thursday.

Asian currencies and equities were down, while Brent crude futures settled at its highest levels since October.

That the rupee “is holding” in the face of these factors is “obviously down to the belief” that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will yet again intervene, a trader at a bank said.

The RBI had sold dollars when the rupee dipped to a record low on Thursday.

Asian currencies struggled on Friday and risk assets retreated amid hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and mounting tensions in the Middle East.

Some Fed officials have adopted a more cautious tone on rate cuts this year in light of a resilient U.S. economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation continues to stall, no cuts may be required at all this year.

Fed funds futures have prices in 75 basis points of rate cuts this year with a first cut expected in June.

Focus turns to the RBI’s monetary policy decision at 10:00 a.m. IST and the U.S. monthly jobs report due later in the day.

“Arguably (payrolls) is the most influential number for markets. It sets the tone not just for Friday, but for the month ahead,” ING Bank said in a note.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Rupee weakens 1.5% in FY24, but registers best year in three

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Among the emerging market, rupee has outperformed most of its peers barring Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real.

The rupee ended the financial year with a fall of 1.5% against the US dollar as compared to a close to an 8% decline in FY23. The local currency fared even better compared to other emerging market currencies, despite headwinds like surging oil prices and a strengthening dollar. The currency ended the last day of the year at 83.40.

While the crude prices rallied as much as 19% from its December lows, the dollar index gained 3.5% to 105 during the same period. India has been vulnerable to high global oil prices as the country imports 87% of its oil demand. A high oil prices would widen India’s current account deficit (CAD) and thereby putting pressure on the currency.

However, cheaper oil imports from Russia, buoyant services exports and resilient remittance inflow have cushioned volatility in oil prices. In FY24, India imported over 35% share of its crude oil imports from Russia. The share of Russian crude oil in India’s total volume of imports was a mere 2% in FY22 and 20% in FY23. Additionally, foreign flows of $40 billion to equity and debt markets also supported the currency.

Economists at UBS believe India can sustain global crude oil prices up to $90/bbl, all else remaining unchanged, but the lower the oil goes, the better it would be for the country. The Brent is currently hovering at $87.2/bbl. UBS, which revised its rupee target for the next year said, “Reflecting the current account balance forecast revisions, we shift our USDINR end-FY25 forecast from 84 to 82.”

Among the emerging market, rupee has outperformed most of its peers barring Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real. Notably, the Mexican Peso had the most favourable outlook among emerging-market currencies, according to an HSBC survey of 121 investors from institutions overseeing $362 billion of EM assets. The rally in the peso has been driven by a combination of high-interest rates, low volatility and ample liquidity. While the peso surged 9% in FY24, Brazilian Real gained 1.6%.

Further, the inclusion of Indian Government Bonds in global bond indices is perceived to be a big tailwind for the currency. In September 2023, JP Morgan announced its decision to include India’s bond in its Global EM local Currency Government Bonds Index as of June 2024. Similarly, in March this year, Bloomberg also announced its decision to include India’s Fully Accessible Route (FAR) bonds in the Bloomberg Emerging Market (EM) Local Currency Government Index and related indices, phased in over 10 months, starting at the end of January 2025.

Market participants expect these indices’ inclusion will attract inflows to the tune of $25-30 billion over the next year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI’s new rule on exchange-traded rupee derivatives confuses brokers

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The RBI’s January circular differentiates between exposure requirements for rupee and non-rupee derivatives. Derivative contracts not involving the rupee can be offered without “any restriction in terms of purpose”.

Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) requiring underlying foreign exchange exposure for exchange-traded rupee derivative transactions has confused brokers and left them worried about the potential impact on activity in this growing segment.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in a January 5 circular said that stock exchanges may offer forex derivative contracts involving the rupee to users ”for the purpose of hedging contracted exposure”.

In 2008, the RBI had allowed transactions in dollar/rupee currency futures “to hedge an exposure to foreign exchange rate risk or otherwise”.

The new rule comes into effect on April 5.

”The exposure requirement needs explanation,” Abhilash Koikkara, head – forex and rates at Nuvama Professional Clients Group, said.

“We and other brokers have written to the exchanges and are awaiting clarification,” he said.

The RBI’s January circular differentiates between exposure requirements for rupee and non-rupee derivatives. Derivative contracts not involving the rupee can be offered without “any restriction in terms of purpose”.

As per the new rule for rupee derivatives, the stock exchanges will inform clients that while they are not required to provide proof of underlying exposure for positions of up to $100 million, the clients have to ensure such exposures exist and that they have not already been hedged.

”The way we read this is that no matter the size of the position, you need an underlying exposure,” the head of currency derivatives segment at a large broker said. The person did not want to be named since he is not authorised to speak to the media.

Only a very small percentage of his clients have an actual forex exposure and most are speculators and arbitrageurs. As such, a large number of clients may decide to not trade in forex derivatives anymore, hurting volumes, he said.

It will not be the broker’s responsibility to ensure clients have exposure to FX, but they will need to inform clients that exposures are needed to transact in derivatives, the person said.

The RBI did not immediately respond to an email seeking clarity about the underlying exposure requirements for rupee derivatives offered by exchanges.

Exchange-traded futures and options have grown to occupy an important place in India’s foreign exchange markets. Apart from speculators, exporters and importers, the RBI has at times used dollar/rupee futures to intervene in the forex markets. Banks arbitrage between currency futures and the over-the-counter market.

The open interest on dollar/rupee futures on the most popular National Stock Exchange is over $5 billion and average daily volumes were $2.8 billion last year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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World Bank, others issue offshore India rupee bonds as demand soars

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The bond issuance since January is almost half the $3.3 billion issued in all of 2023, said the sources, who actively trade these supranational bonds and who based their tally on data from several financial institutions. 

The Wonld Bank’s lending arm and other global institutions have issued $1,4 billion worth of offshore rupee-denominated bonds this year, so far, to meet strong demand spurred by India’s inclusion in JP Morgan’s widely track.ed emerging market debt index, two banking sources said

The bond issuance since January is almost half the $3.3 billion issued in all of 2023, said the sources, who actively trade these supranational bonds and who based their tally on data from several financial institutions.

Most of lest year’s issuance was in the fourth quarter the sources seid, when foreign investors piledinto rupee debt after JP Motgan said lncia wilbte part of the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) from June 2024.

These offshore bonds, with matunities ranging from four years to 10 years, are denominated in Indian rupees but settled in US dollars, the sources said. They declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The bond yields are usually lower than Indian govemnment bonds. They allow issuers to raise US funds at cheaper rates while giving overseas investors access to rupee debt without having to get a special licence to operate onshore or pay local texes, investment bankers added.

The fact that you may just have some investors that don’t want to go through the registration process. They may just continue to use the supra market, and to be honest the supra market is growing quite quickly” Singapore-based Kenneth Akintewe, head of Asian sovereign debt at abrcn, said, adding that global investors are “generally ovenweight”on India risk.

Mitul Kotecha, head of currency and emerging market macro strategy for Asia at Barclays said the issuance of rupee bonds offshore had picked up following the JP Morgan inclusion, acding that they were a “straightforward channel” for investors wanting to own debt without having to set up local arrangements.

The ₩orld Bank’s lending arrn, the international Bank for Reconstruction & Development (IBRD), has issued several bonds so far, inclucing a 6-year bond
issued this month at a yield of 6,89%, lower the onshore sovereign yield of 7.06%.

Other supranationals, all of them “AAA” rated, including the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, Inter-American Developrent Bank and the Asian Infrastructure lnvestment Bank have also issued rupee bonds. JP Morgan, Golciman Sechs, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC were among the arrangers, bankers said.

Issuers typically convert the rupee bond proceeds into US dollars to finance global projects. The high demand for rupee debt means the dollar funds are 15-25 basis points cheaper than prevailing US rates.

“The appeal for issuers is that they shave off a few basis points of the dollar cost and that it provides them access to a wider set of investors,’ a managing director for emerging markets at Britain-headquartered bank said, declining to be named.

Long-only traditional asset managers pick up around three-fourths of the total issued amounts, with the rest absorbed by a short-term investors looking to front-run the passive investment inflows that index inclusion will spur, the banker addec.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

India economic outlook 2024: Experts weigh in on growth, interest rates, and rupee

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Leading economists discussed their outlook on India’s GDP, interest rates, and currency in a chat with CNBC-TV18.

The Indian economy grew a solid 6.5% in 2023, outpacing most major economies. However, the road ahead may be bumpy given the weak global economic outlook, according to economists who shared insights with CNBC-TV18 on their estimates of GDP, interest rates and the rupee.

Samiran Chakraborty, Chief India Economist at Citi, predicts a modest 50 basis points (bps) drop in GDP growth rate for India in the fiscal year 2025. Citi’s global economists forecast a drop in global growth from 2.7% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024, affecting India’s growth rate.

Santanu Sengupta, Chief India Economist at Goldman Sachs, attributed the lower growth forecast of 6.5% for fiscal year 2025 to a fiscal drag. He noted optimism in US growth but emphasised the impact of fiscal policies on India’s economic prospects.

Sakshi Gupta, Deputy Vice President and Sr. Economist at HDFC Bank, echoed these sentiments, projecting a growth rate of 6.3% for the upcoming year. Gupta anticipated a slowdown due to the global economic downturn and foresees a fiscal drag affecting India’s economic performance.

Gupta anticipates a tight monetary policy for at least the first half of the year. Even if rate cuts are implemented in the latter part of the year, they are expected to be gradual. The tight monetary stance, coupled with global economic challenges, is likely to exert pressure on India’s growth prospects.

Also Read | India’s agricultural outlook for 2024: Experts flag election challenges, low harvests, and inflation woes

Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive and Head-Treasury, Markets, and Wholesale Banking Products at Axis Bank, foresees a range-bound bond market with stable rates. Despite potential fluctuations in deposit rates, a generally stable rate regime is expected.

Sakshi Gupta further suggested that once the election uncertainty subsides, the second half of the fiscal year might witness more broad-based signs of private capex revival. This indicates a potential turnaround in economic sentiment and investment patterns.

Also Read | This analyst feels a decisive BJP win in the states and 2024 general elections might fuel another market rally

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

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Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Rupee rises 8 paise to 83.26 against US dollar in early trade

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic currency opened at 83.33 and gained further to 83.26 against greenback, registering a rise of 8 paise from its previous close. On Wednesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.34 against the dollar.

The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.26 against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking a weak American currency against major overseas rivals and positive cues from domestic equity markets.

According to forex traders, the Indian currency strengthened on the back of massive equity buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, volatility in crude oil prices resisted a sharp gain in the Indian currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic currency opened at 83.33 and gained further to 83.26 against greenback, registering a rise of 8 paise from its previous close. On Wednesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.34 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.17 per cent at 100.48 on Thursday. Global oil price benchmark Brent crude inched up 0.08 per cent to USD 79.71 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 221.43 points, or 0.31 per cent, higher at 72,259.86. The broader NSE Nifty rose 50.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 21,705.55. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 2,926.05 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?