5 Minutes Read

Bottomline: The Great FX F&O Slumber Party!

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The currency derivatives mess is not about the death of a market segment on stock exchanges. It is about the complete failure of our watchdogs to ensure that rules under their watch are followed.

The exchange traded foreign currency derivative trading mess is a case study in regulatory oversight and all from RBI to SEBI to stock exchanges and brokerages are to blame.

How does what’s happening in a ₹500 lakh crore turnover market get missed for 14 years? That’s a question RBI, SEBI and stock exchanges must answer. And, if it wasn’t missed, why the sudden wake-up call?

On April 5, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified that there was no change in regulations on currency derivatives trading. To emphasise his point, he added: “No one can say this is new”.

The previous evening RBI in a press release stated currency derivatives regulations are guided by the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, and reiterated in 2000 and 2020 which mandate: “currency derivative contracts involving the INR – both over-the-counter (OTC) and exchange traded – are permitted only for the purpose of hedging of exposure to foreign exchange rate risks.”

The release went on to add: “As announced in the Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies dated December 08, 2023 the regulatory framework governing the hedging of foreign exchange risks was comprehensively reviewed in 2020 with a view to ushering in a principle-based regime. Based on this comprehensive review, public consultations, feedback received from market participants and experience gained since then, the regulatory framework has been made more comprehensive in respect of all types of transactions – OTC and exchange traded – under a single Master Direction to enhance operational efficiency and ease access to foreign exchange derivatives.” What this suggests is that key stakeholders would have been consulted in 2020. So, why was no action taken for four years?

SEBI on its part also doesn’t seem out of line on its understanding of the regulations. In its annual report for FY2023, the markets regulator said: “Currency derivatives, which include futures and options contracts, are used to manage foreign exchange risks arising out of fluctuations in currency rates. In India, currency futures and options were launched in August 2008 and October 2010, respectively. Currently, these are available for trading on four currency pairs viz. US Dollars (USD-INR), Euro (EUR-INR), Great Britain Pound (GBP-INR) and Japanese Yen (JPY-INR). The cross-currency pairs such as EUR-USD, GBP-USD and USD-JPY are also permitted for trading.”

So, since 2010 trading in currency derivatives has been permitted knowing that these instruments are meant for hedging underlying exposure risk ONLY. The only relaxation provided by RBI in 2014 was in terms of disclosure. The RBI states: “For the purpose of ease of doing business, the RBI’s A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 147 dated June 20, 2014 permitted users of ETCDs to take positions up to USD 10 million per exchange without having to provide documentary evidence to establish the underlying exposure but did not provide any exemption from the requirement of having the exposure.”

While this limit was consequently raised to $100 million, there was no relaxation in the rules on hedging. This begs the question: Didn’t SEBI, Stock Exchanges, Brokers know that they couldn’t trade in such contracts without underlying exposure? To expect that they were unaware requires a leap of faith.

THE PROPRIETARY FLAG

One big red flag is the share of proprietary trades in the total turnover on stock exchanges. Data published in SEBI’s annual report of FY2023 reveals that these account for almost 88% of the total turnover on NSE, the exchange with 85% share of the total turnover in such contracts. It would also seem odd that such published information was not noticed by anyone at RBI.

The least one would have expected any of the regulating bodies—Stock Exchanges, SEBI or RBI—to do is enquire into the nature of such trades to ascertain whether these were done to hedge underlying exposures.

SHARE IN FX F&O (FY23)
Category BSE NSE MSEI
Proprietary 87.70% 66.70% 3.60%
FPI 2.90% 9.50% 12.40%
Banks 0.00% 0.50% 49.60%
Corporate 3.80% 5.30% 34.40%
Others 5.60% 18% 0.00%

Source: SEBI Annual Report FY2023

Also, it isn’t like this segment was so small to not have drawn any regulatory attention. The sharp jump in turnover and the size of the market should have been enough cause to invite scrutiny. The turnover in the currency derivatives segment jumped by over 60% to Rs 446 lakh crore in FY2023.

FX DERIVATIVE TURNOVER (Rs cr)
Exchange FY22 FY23 Share %
BSE 64,54,526.00 62,71,864.00 14.07
NSE 2,11,75,555.00 3,80,86,873.00 85.42
MSEI 90,270.00 2,31,435.00 0.52
Total 2,77,20,351.00 4,45,90,171.00 100.00

Source: SEBI Annual Report FY2023

THE SPOILS OF OVERSIGHT

Who gained from this convenient oversight? This is also something to be aware of. No, it’s not just the brokers. Stock Exchanges led by NSE have earned transaction charges on every trade. Even SEBI has got a share of the spoils as has the Government via GST. And all this for years on end from something that is fundamentally illegal. That’s astounding.

CHARGES ON FX F&O TRADES
Charges FX Futures FX Options
Brokerage lower of 0.03% or Rs 20 / trade Rs 20 / trade
Transaction – NSE 0.0009% 0.035%
Transaction – BSE 0.0009% 0.001%
SEBI Charge Rs 10 /crore
GST# 18% 18%

#On Brokerage + SEBI Charges + transaction charges | Source: Zerodha.com

TIME FOR INTROSPECTION

Given how things have panned out, it is time for regulators to take a closer look at what is going on under their watch. Are there other areas where norms are similarly being violated at scale? How is it they missed this violation in the currency derivatives market? Do they need to review their supervisory systems and practices?

The currency derivatives mess is not about the death of a market segment on stock exchanges. It is about the complete failure of our watchdogs to ensure that rules under their watch are followed.

We only hope another oversight of such scale won’t occur again.

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI slaps a penalty of ₹1 crore on IDFC First Bank for violating norms

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The shares of IDFC First Bank closed at ₹80.68 apiece on Friday on BSE, a hike of 1.48% from the previous close of ₹79.50.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed a penalty of ₹1 crore on IDFC First Bank on Friday, April 5, for non-compliance with ‘Loans and Advances—Statutory and Other Restrictions’ for an infrastructure loan granted to a public sector undertaking (PSU) in 2016 and 2017.

The lender revealed that the full loan had already been repaid with no loss to the bank. The loan has been closed in the books of the bank as of September 2023.

“We would like to mention that the bank does not undertake infrastructure project financing since 2019 as a part of its lending strategy,” the bank added in a regulatory filing. 

The lender said that it has taken necessary preventive actions with regard to its procedures to avoid recurrence in the future after scrutinising them in detail.

Meanwhile, the central bank also levied a penalty of ₹49.70 lakh on LIC Housing Finance on Friday for violating certain norms.

On Friday, the shares of IDFC First Bank closed at ₹80.68 apiece on BSE, a hike of 1.48% from the previous close of ₹79.50.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Bankers and economists weigh in on RBI’s April monetary policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Economists will be closely monitoring the inflation data and global cues to get a sense of when the RBI could begin the rate easing cycle.

Leading bankers and economists shared their take on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) first monetary policy of the year, focusing on the central bank’s growth and inflation predictions, rate cut schedules, and how the US Federal Reserve’s actions might affect India’s interest rates.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left key rates unchanged for the seventh straight time while retaining the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance.

In his address, Governor Shaktikanta Das said that while inflation is moving closer to target, the last mile of inflation is turning out to be challenging.

As a result, the central bank has left the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) forecast unchanged at 4.5%.

According to Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank there are a fair amount of risks on the food inflation side and that is the reason there seems very limited room for RBI to act in the near term.

“So, they will be looking very cautiously at most of the inflation-linked data, and of course, the global cues and that is when they can consider a change but that doesn’t happen in the first half of the year (H1) at all,” Bhardwaj said.

For Kaushik Das, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, the tweaks in the central bank’s inflation forecasts came as a surprise.

The central bank has revised the inflation forecast downward to 4.9% from 5% despite the predictions of heatwaves across the country between April and June.

Similarly, for July-September, the forecast has been revised to 3.8% from 4%, and for January-March 2025, it is now at 4.5% versus 4.7%.

“If you are hawkish on inflation, then they should not have touched the inflation forecast as whatever was there was okay, and there was no need for tweaking at this point of time,” he added.

Also Read | RBI Monetary Policy 2024: Interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row

According to CS Setty, Managing Director of SBI said, while the policy was broadly on the expected lines, Governor Shaktikanta Das’ commentary on liquidity was reassuring.

“We could witness in the last few weeks that the liquidity is not constrained in the system and whenever liquidity is excess, the absorption was done and when the shortfall is noticed, the injection was done. So, to that extent, what the Governor has assured us in terms of being nimble and flexible is reassuring,” Setty said.

Also Read | MPC meeting: Real Estate stocks cheer RBI’s decision to keep repo rate unchanged

Shobhit Mehrothra, Head-Fixed Income at HDFC AMC sees the potential for a first rate cut by the RBI in August, well after the US Fed starts easing rates.

“If the Fed is going to perhaps start the easing cycle with the first-rate cut in June, I would guess that perhaps RBI could consider an August cut if inflation moves inline as per expectations in the next few prints.”

Also Read | RBI MPC leaves inflation projection for FY25 unchanged at 4.5%, assuming a normal monsoon

Sandeep Yadav, Head of Fixed Income, DSP Mutual Fund agrees with Mehrothra.

The RBI’s decision on when to cut interest rates for the first time will mostly depend on when the US Federal Reserve cuts rates for the first time.

It’s all about the data, whether it’s from India or the US, says Mehrothra.

Also Watch: Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive & Head-Treasury at Axis Bank; Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, Ashhish Vaidya, MD & Head of Treasury & Markets at DBS Bank India and Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, assessed and analyse the RBI Monetary Policy.

For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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A new app will allow you to buy government bonds directly

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

With this new app, the RBI aims to foster a more inclusive and accessible environment for retail investors, thereby contributing to the deepening of the government securities market.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed to launch a mobile application to enhance retail participation in the government securities (G-sec) market, Governor Shaktikanta Das said during the inaugural monetary policy review of the fiscal year 2025 on Friday, April 5.

The RBI Retail Direct Scheme was initiated in November 2021. Under this, retail individual investors were allowed to easily open a Retail Direct Gilt (RDG) Account with the Reserve Bank of India through a dedicated online portal rbiretaildirect.org.in.

Adding an app for easing the opening of gilt accounts, Das said would streamline access to the Retail Direct portal. “It will enhance convenience for retail investors and foster deeper engagement with the G-sec market,” he said.

Investment avenues under the scheme encompass both primary and secondary markets. In the primary issuance of government securities, investors can participate through the non-competitive scheme in government securities auctions, adhering to the procedural guidelines for SGB issuance.

Meanwhile, in the secondary market, investors can engage in buying and selling government securities via the Negotiated Dealing System – Order Matching (NDS-OM) platform, encompassing the ‘Odd Lot’ and ‘Request for Quotes’ segments.

Facilitating seamless transactions, payments can be conveniently executed through savings bank accounts via Internet Banking or UPI.

The investor services under the scheme include provisions for transaction and balance statements, nomination facilities, pledges or lien of securities, and gift transactions. Importantly, no fees will be levied for the facilities provided under the scheme.

Also Read: RBI MPC meet: Reserve Bank leaves inflation projection for FY25 unchanged at 4.5%, assuming a normal monsoon

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Soon you’ll be able to deposit cash into your bank account using UPI

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The cash deposit machine has a slot that reads the debit card. Customers will now have the option of using the UPI interface instead of debit card if they wish to. 

The cash deposit machine allows people to deposit cash directly into the bank account using the debit card, instead of having to visiting the branch.

It’s similar to an ATM (automated teller machine) but instead of giving out cash, a cash deposit machine takes in cash.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said that it would allow people to use the unified payments interface (UPI) instead of the debit card.

ALSO READ: RBI MPC cuts FY25 inflation forecast to 4.5% and hopes for a normal monsoon

How it would work?

The cash deposit machine has a slot that reads the debit card. Customers will now have the option of using the UPI interface instead of debit card if they wish to.

Once the customer is identified, there’s another slot to count the cash that’s being deposited using sensors.

Once it’s verified, the amount is credited to the customer’s bank account. “Given the experience gained from cardless cash withdrawal using UPI at the ATMs, it is now proposed to facilitate deposit of cash in cash deposit machines using UPI. This measure will further enhance customer convenience and make currency handling process at banks more efficient,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said.

Cardless cash deposit is available even now

Even now customers can deposit cash without using a debit card.

Once the customer has entered the bank account number on the cash deposit machine, it asks for the registered mobile number for confirmation before allowing you to drop the cash.

 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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RBI holds repo rate at 6.5% for 7th consecutive time; home, auto EMIs to remain unchanged: TOP HIGHLIGHTS

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

RBI Monetary Policy 2024 HIGHLIGHTS: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee that met for its bi-annual meeting from April 3 to April 5 has decided to maintain key lending rates, withdrawal of accommodation stance and FY25 GDP growth projection, Governor Shaktikanta Das announced. He also cautioned banks, NBFCs and other financial entities to give highest priority to governance and adherence to regulatory guidelines. Track RBI Monetary Policy 2024 LIVE updates here

RBI Monetary Policy 2024 HIGHLIGHTS: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee that met for its bi-annual meeting from April 3 to April 5 has decided to maintain key lending rates, withdrawal of accommodation stance and FY25 GDP growth projection, Governor Shaktikanta Das also cautioned banks, NBFCs and other financial entities to give highest priority to governance and adherence to regulatory guidelines. Track RBI Monetary Policy 2024 LIVE updates here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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RBI policy on April 5: What is D-Street expecting?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

RBI MPC: Most CNBC-TV18 poll respondents believe the first rate cut is only expected in the October policy, with some expecting it by August, but no earlier than that.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is currently underway with the policy decisions scheduled to be announced on April 5, 2024.

The market isn’t expecting any changes in rates or stance just yet. But a CNBC-TV18 poll suggests it will watch out for macro forecasts with a potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth upgrade on the cards.

There’s also an expectation that RBI is going to signal that it will keep liquidity comfortable. If all of this comes through, it is going to be bullish for stocks.

In the CNBC-TV18 poll, 60% of the respondents said that they are going to focus on RBI’s growth and inflation projection with others highlighting that they’re going to watch out for any signal that the stance could be shifted towards neutral or if the tone turns a bit more hawkish given the exuberance in the system which RBI has been highlighting.

Also Read | World Bank upgrades India’s growth forecast to 7.5% for FY24, pegs rate at 6.6% for FY25

No one from the poll expected rates to be tinkered with in this policy. Most of the respondents expect the stance of the policy to be left unchanged at withdrawal of accommodation with just about 10% expecting that RBI will prepare the markets for a shift in stance going ahead.

Most respondents believe the first rate cut is only expected in the October policy, with some expecting it by August, but no earlier than that.

When do you expect the first rate cut from the RBI MPC?
Aug-24 40%
Oct-24 50%
Dec-24 10%
Source: CNBC-TV18 poll

Also Read | Goldman Sachs expects RBI to begin rate cuts from third quarter; prefers these sectors

On the liquidity front, the respondents largely expect RBI to signal comfortable liquidity. Since the last policy, liquidity conditions have eased and RBI has been actively managing liquidity with multiple interventions at both ends. Participants expect that RBI will continue with this and also reiterate its preference to stay nimble with market operations.

The inflation forecast for the current fiscal year is also unlikely to be changed just yet. While vegetable prices continue to remain volatile, the RBI could find some comfort in the softening core inflation, but on the growth front half of the respondents are expecting an upward revision with the domestic growth data remaining robust.

Will RBI change the average CPI forecast for FY25 from the current 4.5%?
Unchanged 80%
Revise lower to 4.2-4.4% 20%
Source: CNBC-TV18 poll

The RBI is expected to raise the GDP growth forecast for FY25 anywhere between 7.1% and 7.5% as per 50% of the respondents.

What will RBI change its 7% GDP forecast for FY25 to?
Unchanged at 7% 50%
Revise up to 7.1-7.3% 30%
Revise up to 7.4-7.5% 20%
Source: CNBC-TV18 poll

Apart from these, the governor’s comments in the press conference about recent regulatory measures, for instance, against financial entities, are also things that the Street is going to keenly watch out for.

Also Read | RBI Monetary Policy: 5 factors that could drive the central bank’s rate decision in April

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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 5 Minutes Read

RBI Monetary Policy: 5 factors that could drive the central bank’s rate decision in April

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

As the RBI Monetary Policy Committee convenes to decide on its April policy, these factors—economic growth, global economic conditions, inflation forecasts, agricultural prospects, and crude oil prices—will critically shape its repo rate decision.

A confluence of factors, ranging from inflation and economic growth trajectories to global macro environment, are poised to influence the repo rate decision of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its first meeting for the financial year 2025, set from April 3 to 5.

Here’s how experts believe these factors will play into the RBI’s policy decision:

Sustained economic growth

India’s economy is on an upswing, with growth forecasts for the last financial year (FY24) suggesting a robust performance ahead.

Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist – India and Asia Ex-Japan at Nomura, told CNBC-TV18 that the economy is expected to exceed initial projections, possibly reaching an 8% growth rate.

Also Read | Experts anticipate RBI to keep interest rates unchanged in April

This optimistic outlook could prompt the RBI to adopt a cautious stance on rate adjustments to avoid overheating the economy.

India’s economy grew a stellar 8.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the fastest among major economies

Global macroeconomic conditions

The RBI’s policy decision is also likely to be influenced by global economic trends, particularly the stability of the US economy.

Jahangir Aziz, Global Head-EM Economics at JPMorgan, suggested that the RBI might hold off on any significant rate cuts until at least July, considering the global economic landscape.

The US Federal Reserve is currently expected to deliver its first cut in June, a Reuters poll in March showed. However, the risks are growing for the cut to happen later in the year.

While the Fed has indicated some rate cuts in the coming months, the RBI is expected to keep rates higher for longer.

JPMorgan predicts the first rate cut by RBI in July, and even that is unlikely to be a significant one, according to Aziz.

At its policy announcement on February 8, the MPC left the key repo rate—the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks—unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth straight time.

Inflation forecasts

Inflation control is a perennial goal for the RBI, and current projections indicate a manageable scenario.

Inflation, at 5.09% in February, is expected to decline to 4.00% in the third quarter before rising, a separate Reuters poll showed. Price rises are expected to average 4.60% in the current fiscal year.

With inflation likely to stay within the 2%–6% target, the central bank may find some leeway in maintaining or subtly adjusting interest rates to support economic growth while keeping prices in check.

Monsoon predictions

The agricultural sector’s outlook, which is heavily dependent on monsoon patterns, also bears significance for the RBI’s policy framework.

A forecasted normal monsoon season, as predicted by Skymet, suggests that agricultural production could remain stable, thereby controlling food inflation and supporting rural income.

“There is a better chance of a normal and above normal…there is a very low chance of a below normal or drought this year,” Jatin Singh, the Founder and CEO of Skymetweather.com told CNBC-TV18.

Also Read | Skymet forecasts normal monsoon in 2024 with minimal El Nino impact

A normal monsoon is crucial for the RBI, as it directly impacts inflation and growth rates.

Crude oil prices

Lastly, the volatile nature of crude oil prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, presents an external challenge for India’s economy.

With crude oil prices expected to remain elevated, the RBI will need to account for the impact of higher energy costs on inflation and the current account deficit.

Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, “Brent oil futures should track closer to $75 to $80 a barrel in coming months given our view that China’s oil demand growth will disappoint.”

Also Read Oil rises with lower US stockpiles and OPEC meeting to the fore

This external factor could influence the RBI’s stance to mitigate any inflationary pressures arising from costly imports.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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 5 Minutes Read

RBI tightens rules on currency derivatives to curb speculative trading

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Reports suggest that around 80% of currency derivatives trading volume comes from speculative or non-hedging activities. Read on to know how the new RBI norms will affect currency derivatives traders.

Indian stock exchanges–National Stock Exchange (NSE) and BSE–have directed their member brokers to take note of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) notification dated January 5, 2024, stating that trade in currency derivatives can only be undertaken for hedging purposes after April 5, 2024.

This means that traders are expected to use these instruments to mitigate forex risk rather than for speculative trading.

Below are the details of the RBI notification.

Implementation Date:

The directive from the RBI will be effective from April 5, 2024. This means that from this date onward, currency derivatives can only be used for hedging purposes.

Restriction on Position Sizes:

Previously, users could take positions in currency derivatives up to $100 million without any underlying exposure. However, it appears that this allowance is being eliminated or significantly restricted.

Market Composition and Trading Patterns:

The breakdown of market participants includes proprietary traders, hedgers, and retail investors.

Action Required:

Non-hedgers or speculative traders are required to square off their positions before April 5 to comply with the new regulations.

However, market participants are seeking clarity from the RBI regarding the specifics of the new rules to understand how they will be affected and what actions they need to take to comply.

These changes indicate a tightening of regulations aimed at aligning currency derivatives trading with their intended purpose of hedging forex risk.

It appears that the RBI is seeking to reduce speculative activity in the currency derivatives market and ensure that it serves its primary function of risk management for businesses and investors exposed to currency fluctuations.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?

 5 Minutes Read

Goldman Sachs expects RBI to begin rate cuts from third quarter; prefers these sectors

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Sunil Koul, APAC Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs is most cautious on oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to the pressure on refining and marketing margins with Brent crude at around $80 per barrel.

Sunil Koul, APAC Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold interest rates in the upcoming April 5 policy.

While RBI may initiate rate cuts from the third quarter this year, it will likely be only about a 50 basis points reduction to 6% from 6.5% now, he said.

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its bi-monthly meet today (April 3) and announce the policy decision on Friday (April 5).

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Koul expressed his views, stating, “I think what’s more important from an RBI standpoint is what happens on the liquidity front…liquidity was very tight in the system for the last two quarters or so… but things have already started to ease in the last month or so.”

India’s banking system faced liquidity deficit for nearly three months, amid outflows towards tax payments, limited government spending, and higher credit growth.

The liquidity deficit hit a record high in January, widening to ₹3.34 lakh as on January 23, per RBI data. The average deficit remained around 2 lakh crore in February.

Among Goldman’s preferred sectoral bets are energy, particularly refiners and index heavyweights within the space, telecom players for the inflection in capex and free cash flows, utilities space driven by concerns about peak power shortages and a focus on renewables.

Koul is also bullish on real estate and thinks “the best way to play that is through the building material or the late cycle construction materials.”

He is most cautious on oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to pressure on refining and marketing margins, fueled by Brent crude’s fluctuations around $80 per barrel.

According to Bloomberg, futures for the global benchmark Brent surged towards $90 a barrel, reaching the highest level since October.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

LIVE TV

today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
Start Quiz Now
Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?