Crucial weeks ahead for Biocon amid growing competition in trastuzumab market, regulatory inspections
Summary
February and March are going to be important months for Biocon when it comes to news flow and triggers for the stock.
February and March are going to be important months for Biocon when it comes to news flow and triggers for the stock. One of the near term events will be pharma giant Pfizer launching its version of cancer biosimilar trastuzumab on February 15. Biocon in partnership with Mylan launched its version of trastuzumab, branded as Ogivri, in December 2019 in the US. Trastuzumab is the biosimilar version of breast cancer drug Herceptin by Roche. Pfizer’s launch will mean additional competition for Biocon in the trastuzumab market which has already seen Amgen launch its version ‘at-risk’ in July 2019.
Analysts believe Amgen has around 15 percent market share in the trastuzumab market and besides Pfizer more competitors are expected in 1HCY20. Other companies that have filed for the drug besides Pfizer are Celtrion, Teva, Samsung and Merck. Despite the impending competition, analysts are confident about Biocon ramping up the trastuzumab market share. Estimates are Biocon-Mylan could gain 6-9 percent share in the first year and 14-15 percent in the second year. The primary reason for the optimism is because trastuzumab is a large market with a limited number of players. The market size is $2.5 billion with around 3 to 4 companies selling the drug. According to them, how much Biocon can make will depend on how much the prices will reduce. Estimates are prices can reduce up to 30-40 percent in the first year, followed by 50 percent plus in the second year. The range on how much Biocon can make in the first year is wide from $60 million all the way to $120 million.
Regulatory inspections
The other important triggers to watch for will be on the regulatory front. Biocon had communicated to investors and analysts in the Q3 earnings call that the firm is expecting its Malaysian facility to be reinspected by the USFDA in February 2020. This inspection is particularly important as insulin glargine, a biosimilar drug for diabetes, branded as Semglee by Biocon, is filed from the Malaysian plant. The Malaysian facility was earlier inspected by the USFDA on account of approval for insulin glargine in July 2019. The USFDA in July 2019 issued 12 observations to the facility. The observations resulted in queries from the USFDA in the form of a Complete Response Letter (CRL) to the company on insulin glargine. The CRL mainly pertained to the observations issued to the Malaysian facility as per analysts. This meant that in order to receive approval for insulin glargine the USFDA would have to clear the Malaysian facility mostly with a re-audit. This reinspection is now expected in February making it crucial to the future of insulin glargine.
The Target Action Date or the time by which USFDA is going to reach a decision on Biocon’s application for the diabetes drug is June 2020, another important month to keep in mind. The company is confident of a mid-2020 launch and says it has been working with the USFDA on the approval and the Malaysian plant clearance. Biocon has launched Insulin glargine in other markets such as Australia in October 2019.
Lastly, the other important piece of news to watch for in the next few weeks will be the details of five observations issued to Biocon’s API facility in Bengaluru. The inspection was both a Pre-Approval Inspection that is specifically for a product and a general inspection of the facility. The inspection was conducted from January 20 to 24. While Biocon has generally had a good track record when it comes to compliance, analysts are particularly keen on knowing about these observations.
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