Tag: pandemic

The fear may cause more economic impact than the virus itself, says Jefferies

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Simon Powell, equity strategist at Jefferies and Ken Peng, Asia Pacific investment strategist of Citi Private Bank shared their views on coronavirus‘ impact on global markets.

According to Powell, everyone is now focused on the growth and the new cases outside of China. “Keep your eye on Iran. Iran has got way more cases than people think and has the potential to impact a lot of countries nearby. The key point is that US is completely underestimating how many potential cases they may already have and could have in the future. The US is now bracing itself. The fear of the virus may cause more economic impact than the virus itself,” said Powell.

Peng said, “We are waiting for the day when new cases outside of China peaks and that should be measured in weeks not months. I am still optimistic that based on Chinese experience, strong containment works, so you will see more of that in developed markets as well.”

“Market was complacent, now it is becoming more realistic and earning downgrades are happening, it shouldn’t take that long before the economic impact is more fully reflected,” said Peng.

When asked if he agreed with Peng that it was a matter of weeks that the virus is brought under control or starts to show decline, Powell said, “I have a more pessimistic view. I think what happened in China and it could only happen in China – to create or to basically almost lock-up a large group of the population for four weeks who compliantly agreed to it and rest social distancing. Imagine trying to do the same thing in North America, it could be quite challenging and I have spoken to a number of epidemiologists who are starting to form a view that potentially containment may not work that actually you cannot contain this thing, it is out in the wild already and what systems need to be doing is prepare for the onslaught of cases.”

However, there is some optimism because this is a virulent virus but the case of fatality rates are significantly lower than we have seen with other pandemics like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and so the chances of dying is substantially lower,” Powell added.

With regards to weeks versus months, Powell said the market will look through all of this and look for a rebound absolutely. “However, it will come down to consumer sentiment – how quickly – as this passes – would people want to go back out and start shopping and going to restaurants and getting their haircut again and a lot of that is to do with school closures and fears. School closures is a big issue too. Japan announced school closures from March 4, we will see school closures in the US. In Hong Kong too schools are closed until Easter. School closures dampen economic activity because when you are at home looking after your kids, you are not out working or spending and the market needs to figure out when to start pricing-in a rebound,” Powell further added.

When asked about global growth, Peng said, “In China’s case, the worst of the growth decline would be in Q1. Then Q2 should be the beginning of the rebound. However, with the world months behind China in terms of the virus development, you would expect the trade and tourism activities continue to be pretty sluggish even in Q2 especially outside of China. So that is going to have some indirect impact on China as well.”

“We had previously expected a 5.8 percent growth in China and are now looking at 5.3 percent. For global growth, we had revised down from 2.7 to 2.5 percent but the downside risk is probably larger in the global growth number there,” Peng addded.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US warns of rapid corona spread, suggests drastic measures

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US federal health officials have issued a grim warning about a “bad” spread of coronavirus and asked the nation to prepare for drastic actions like cancelling meetings as the disease was spreading its tentacle far beyond China.

The warning about meetings on Tuesday comes as the nation is preparing for the presidential elections in November with intra-party polls to select the Democratic party nominee yet to take place in 47 states and rallies are being held across the country.

“In the expectation that this could be bad,” the head of the respiratory diseases centre, Nancy Messonnier, said preventive actions for schools, businesses and health facilities should be planned.

“Disruptions to everyday life may be severe, but people might want to start thinking about that now,” she said at a news briefing outlining the possible steps like scrapping meetings, closing schools and getting employees to work remotely from home if the disease spread in the US.

“It’s not a question of if this will happen, but when this will happen, and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses,” she said.

Messonnier is the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centre for Disease Control (CDC).

So far there are 57 people ill with the disease in the US, 43 of them evacuated from the cruise ship Diamond docked in Japan.

One US soldier stationed in South Korea has also come down with the disease.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed declared a state of emergency to empower local action should the disease turn up in the city at the heart of the Silicon Valley.

The US, which has been under a state of public health emergency, has banned people who are not citizens or permanent residents from entering the country if they have been to China within the past 14 days.

President Donald Trump’s administration requested the Congress to allocate $2.5 billion to deal with the disease.

Trump said in New Delhi that the situation is “very well under control in our country.”

But Senate Democratic Party leader Chuck Schumer said attacked Trump saying he “has no plan, no urgency, no understanding of the facts or how to coordinate a response”.

Messonnier’s warning sent the stocks tumbling, with the Dow Jones index recording a loss of 3.15 per cent on Tuesday after a 3.55 per cent drop on Monday.

Another CDC official later held a news conference with a message of reassurance.

CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat said, “We believe the immediate risk here in the United States remains low, and we’re working hard to keep that risk low.”

On the positive side, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci announced that clinical safety trials of coronavirus vaccine could begin in about a month and a half and it could take a year to 18 months for it to be available to the public.

The coronavirus, now called COVID-19, has spread from China, where more than 78,000 cases have been reported with 2,715 deaths as of Wednesday morning, to South Korea with more that 1,100 cases, Italy with 300 and Iran with 95, Switzerland and Spain.

Fears of the COVID-19 are spreading in the US and the state of Alabama opposed sending some of the people quarantined from the cruise ship Diamond to a federal quarantine facility.

The federal government cancelled the plan and those under quarantine will continue to be held at military bases in Texas and California.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nature is scary. And she unleashes epidemics to keep humanity in fear

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Man is curious by nature and our need to know has taken us to the farthest corners of not just the space but our planet has been explored by the intrepid and the brave as well. The documentary called Night On Earth reveals exactly what happens when the Sun sets and the stars come out in the sky:

Whether it is the scorpion eating mouse that can survive many stings or the big elephant seals that are happy to hunt for baby seals, nature is as scary as it is beautiful. This documentary shows us the hitherto unseen night sky, night hunt and the flowering of the beautiful cacti in a South American desert.

Right now, we’d do well to be afraid of nature. Because when nature decides to get even with us, thousands just die. And her revenge for humanity polluting the lakes and rivers and chopping down trees is simple. Flu Virus. And it is delivered to us via innocuous carriers: ducks, chicken, seagulls, bats and pigs.

Our world today is watching the situation in Wuhan and on the floating flu cruise ship very carefully. There is a very deadly coronavirus epidemic that has affected 75,748 people, caused 2,129 confirmed deaths and has spread across 27 countries. The World Health Organisation official website has a dashboard for this virus is scarily fascinating. If Wuhan, China is been the epicentre of the outbreak, then you wonder how with all the modern healthcare we have and stringent health screenings, how one person has reported being affected in as far away land as Finland?

How do we survive a pandemic like this flu? As you should know by now, there is always a fascinating documentary series if you want to know more, feel less scared. Netflix is a treasure trove for documentary seekers. I watched the docuseries Pandemic and I know there is hope. Because caregivers and researchers all across the world – New York, San Francisco, Guatemala, Oklahoma, Cairo, Goma (Congo), and even Jaipur – are working tirelessly to help patients deal with everything from the deadly Ebola to Swine Flu and even the ordinary flu.

I am a fan now of Dr Syra Madad who is working to make sure hospitals are prepared for the outbreak and am sure that if I go to Jaipur, I will seek out Dr Dinesh Vijay who works at a government hospital. And know that it would be great to host Dr Goracke, Dr Kayali, Dr Michael Yao should they come to Bombay. I found myself rooting for the researchers of a biotechnology company who are working to find one universal vaccine shot that can tackle the transmission cycle, break the zoonotic network where the virus moves to animals to humans.

You must have read about Anti-Vaxxers? People, who think vaccinating children is against their spiritual and lifestyle beliefs? There is a serious outbreak of measles across the United States because people do not want to vaccinate their kids! In Africa, teams of health workers who are working with patients of Ebola have to face death threats from the militia and hostility from the public who believe that the healthcare workers are actually bringing the disease to their towns! I was surprised at how much the doctors in India in the documentary are respected. But the words of Dr Yao from Congo resonated with me: If you quarantine people, the people will run away and hide, which means the disease will spread even more.

Remember how they wanted to quarantine entire towns in the movies Contagion and the original scary Outbreak? Dustin Hoffman and Renee Russo in hazmat suits is something that brings a shiver down my spine even today.

If you have been binge-watching drug cartel shows about clever Narcs or DEA agents going undercover to catch the drug lords, then you will love to hear from the man who discovered that there was a rampant drug epidemic in the United States even before it became universally acknowledged as a crisis. The Pharmacist on Netflix is all about the single-minded madness of one father who lost his son to a drug deal gone bad and decided that he was going to examine why so many were dying of an overdose of prescription painkiller called OxyContin.

The Opioid epidemic has decimated so many lives and affected families everywhere, and the American government has not managed to do anything to the Sacklers to own Purdue Phrama who created Oxycontin. They say that hedge funds are backing off from investing in the company, but isn’t it too little, too late?

There are many stories of epidemics that put the fear of God into you. And I’m sure even God will tell you to wash hands (and feet) ever so often and to stay at home of you have the flu.

But what happens if the deadly virus mutates inside you? And turns you into a carnivorous insect? It takes Japanese Anime to bring you this strange world where people safe from the mutation are forced to live within a walled city, the world is scary dangerous (because, insects) and needs insect hunters. Watch Cagasters Of An Insect Cage on Netflix. The animation takes time to get inside your head, but when a cool, laconic hero promises to save a girl, what is there not to like?

Manisha Lakhe is a poet, film critic, traveller, founder of Caferati — an online writer’s forum, hosts Mumbai’s oldest open mic, and teaches advertising, films and communication. 

Read her columns here.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow