Tag: Nifty50

Trade Setup for May 14: Is 21,821 the new short-term bottom for Nifty 50?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The market breathed a sigh of relief following a five-day downturn, which had erased almost 700 points from the Nifty 50 index. Frontline equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded from their day’s lows, finishing in positive territory after both experienced nearly a one percent decline during morning trading.

Sensex rose 112 points to settle at 72,776 and Nifty closed at 22,104 level, up 49 points, while the Nifty Bank index jumped 333 points to 47,754 led by financials. The HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank contributed 80% to Nifty and Nifty Bank’s gains.

Pharma stocks also witnessed buying on upbeat management commentary from Cipla. The management expects margin to improve by 100 basis points year-on-year to 24.5-25.5% for FY25.

Meanwhile, foreign investors continued to remain net sellers in India, while domestic investors remained buyers in the cash market on May 13. FIIs sold ₹4,499 crore and DIIs bought ₹3,563 crore in equities.

What Are The Experts Saying?

Though the market reversed from the day’s low and ended up with a marginal gain, investors remain concerned over the progressing general election and high valuation, according to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

An absence of major positive triggers and the flight of FIIs from the domestic market is expected to keep the short-term trend weak, Bair said.

Investors now remain watchful ahead of the release of India and US inflation data and the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech to get a near-term direction.

“The week kicked off with market volatility, but by the end, it managed to eke out marginal gains. Initially bearish sentiments gave way to a recovery, particularly among key heavyweights, which not only erased losses but also propelled the index to close near the day’s peak at 22,125.50,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking.

What Do The Nifty 50 Charts Indicate?

Has the Nifty 50’s recovery today given a ray of hope to the bulls and the chartists? Lets find out:

According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, the Nifty has formed a hammer pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish reversal following a correction.

“Additionally, the stock has found support around the previous swing low on the daily timeframe. However, the index’s recovery may encounter resistance in the 22150-22200 zone, and only a decisive move above 22200 could trigger a stronger rally in the market. On the lower end, support is situated at 21950,” De said.

“Nifty closed with bullish ‘hammer’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart, which indicates short term bullish trend reversal. On the higher side band 22300-22320 could act as a resistance, while low of 21821, registered today would remain support for the Nifty in the short term. Nifty witnessed almost 1000 points from an all-time high of 22794. Nifty managed to maintain its level above the previous swing low of 21777,” said Vinay Rajani, CMT, Senior Technical/Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities.

Bank-Nifty breaks 9-day losing streak

Rajani said that the Bank Nifty index broke the nine-day’s losing streak by closing with a gain of 365 points. “From the low of the day, Bank Nifty recovered more than 800 points to close at 47786. Resistance for the Bank-Nifty is seen in the band of 48200-48300, while support for the same lies in the zone of 46900-47000 band.”

Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said the Bank Nifty index saw a strong recovery from lower levels and managed to hold onto its support at the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). There’s a potential for a pullback towards its 20-day moving average (DMA), positioned at 48,200, he said.

As long as the index maintains the support level of 47,200 on the downside, where bullish activity is evident, the index remains in a buy mode, Shah added.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

The Nifty 50 futures across series’ shed 0.7% in Open Interest on Monday. The Nifty May futures are trading at a premium of 97.05 points, compared to 85.40 points earlier. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank’s futures across series’ shed 3.7% in Open Interest.

Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is at 0.96 from 0.91 earlier.

Balrampur Chini, Hindustan Copper, GMR Infra, Idea, SAIL, PNB, ZEEL and Canara Bank are still in the F&O ban list, while Piramal Enterprises is new in the ban.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for May 16 expiry:

The Nifty 50 call strikes between 22,100 and 22,300 have seen addition in Open Interest.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for May 16 expiry:

On the put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 21,800 and 22,100 have seen addition in Open Interest ahead of the expiry:

Stocks to watch out for ahead of Tuesday’s session:

Vedanta to consider raising funds via issue of equity shares via FPO, rights issue or other ways on May 16.

Hindalco: Novelis Files IPO Paper With US SEC For NYSE listing.

Shriram Finance board approves sale of its housing finance subsidiary Shriram Housing Finance to Warburg Pincus for ₹4,630 crore for equity and convertible instruments of SHFL.

Cochin Shipyard bags order in the range of ₹500-1000 crore from a European client for Hybrid SOVs.

TCS to set up first-of-its-kind human-centric AI Center of excellence in France.

RVNL has received a letter of award (LoA) for an order worth ₹239 crore from Southern Railways.

Coromandel International will acquire an additional 6.99% stake in Dhaksha Unmanned Sys for ₹150 crore.

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Terrible Thursday! Sensex falls 1,000 points; Investors lose ₹7 lakh crore; What spooked the market?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Sensex slipped 1,062 points to settle at 72,404 amid an across-the-board sell-off on Thursday. The frontline index Nifty 50 tanked 345 points to 21,958, slipping below the psychological level of 22,000 for the first time since April 19, reflecting weak investor sentiment on Dalal Street.

The muted cues from the fourth-quarter earnings of large-cap companies and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the general elections have further dampened investor sentiment. The volatility index, India VIX, also jumped 6.56% to 18.20 levels, rising for the eleventh consecutive session.

Domestic stocks eroded nearly ₹7 lakh crore worth of investor wealth on Thursday. Data showed investor wealth, as suggested by the combined BSE market capitalisation fell to ₹393.73 lakh crore in today’s trade.

Index heavyweights Larsen & Toubro (L&T), ITC, HDFC Bank were the top contributors to the market crash.

Experts view

“The fall in the market is primarily attributed to the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the general elections. This uncertainty has significantly bolstered India’s volatility gauge, the India VIX, reaching its 52-week high at 19, indicative of market apprehension,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President at Master Capital Services.

In the global context, Nanda said that a subdued sentiment has developed due to the hike in crude oil prices, which has aggravated inflationary concerns. “This escalation comes amidst the US Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake any interest rate cuts, which could potentially contribute to further market decline. Additionally, Nifty prices are currently trading below their 55-day EMA which has served as key support in the past.”

With a voter turnout ratio of 65.68%, slightly lower than in 2019 for the same seats except Assam, investors have turned nervous about the BJP’s expected seat count.

“We expect this volatility to continue in the near term in the absence of any major positive trigger. Now till Nifty holds below 22000 zones, weakness could be seen towards 21700,” said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.

Continued selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) has weighed on the overall market sentiment, as they have been net sellers so far this year. FIIs offloaded Indian equities worth ₹2,854 crore on May 8.

Tech view

The Nifty 50 index has been in a larger range movement of around 22800-21750 levels in the last couple of months and is currently nearing a lower range and also a crucial support around 21750 levels for the short term. Having bounced back decently from this support in the past, there is a higher probability of a minor upside bounce from this lower support in the coming sessions, said Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities.

Shetti said that Nifty’s immediate resistance should be at 22100 levels.

According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, bears remained at the helm as the index fell sharply following a breakdown below 22200, where significant Put writing had been visible.

“On the day of mayhem, the index kept breaking the supports as buyers did not buy the dips. The trend looks extremely weak with a possibility of a further fall in the near term. On the higher end, immediate resistance is visible at 22200; the market might remain sell on rise until it stays below 22200,” he added.

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For the 5th time in 20 years, Nifty50 closes at the same level

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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It’s quite abnormal for a benchmark index comprising large and most liquid stocks to close at the same level as the previous day’s close. However, Wednesday, May 08, was one of those days where the benchmark Nifty50 closed at 22,302.50 points, which is exactly the same level as the previous close.

Interestingly, this is the fifth instance over the last 20 years in which the benchmark closed at the same level without even a tick difference. After June 2005, the Nifty50 ended at the same level in May 2014, October 2016, and March 2017, according to data sourced from Bloomberg.

However, if one goes beyond 20 years, the same had happened twice in 1997 and thrice in 1999. Similarly, the index closed at the same level in January 2001 and October 2002 as well.

The Nifty50 index, which comprises the top 50 companies in the country, was launched in April 1996. The index is a well-diversified yardstick including companies from various sectors so that it can reflect the overall market condition. The dominance of these companies is evident in their market valuation itself. These top companies contribute 45% to the NSE‘s total market capitalisation, which stands at ₹397 lakh crore as of Wednesday’s close.

The index has generated an annualised return of 11.6% since its inception with a dividend yield of 1.2%. The Nifty50 is computed using free float market capitalisation method and under this method, only those shares which are available for trade are considered for the calculation.

A total of 13 sectors form part of the index with companies from financial services alone contributing more than a third to the total weight. While Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector has 12.7% weight, the information technology also enjoys similar weight at 12.3%.

Among the index constituents, HDFC Bank boast the highest weigh of 11.5%, which was followed by Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank. While RIL commands a weight of  about 10% on the Index, the second largest private lender ICICI Bank enjoys a weight of 8.1%.

Also read: BSE Q4 Results | Stock exchange offers dividend of ₹15, net profit up 21%, revenue doubles

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

JP Morgan: Nifty may test 25,000 if BJP wins in 2024 Lok Sabha elections

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Nifty50 could test levels of 25,000 if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins a third term in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, global brokerage firm JPMorgan said in a note while suggesting a buy-on-dips strategy.

The brokerage has picked several stocks as its top bets spanning sectors including indigenous defense, waterways, affordable housing, and manufacturing renaissance, among others.

As elections get going, stock markets go through an extended period of elevated volatility, but indices decline sharply after the conclusion of elections, JPMorgan said.

According to the brokerage firm’s bull case scenario estimates, the Nifty50 may inch towards 25,000, driven by further PE (price-to-earnings) rerating led by—

— If the ruling party retains power with an inline or higher-than-expected seat share.

— The RBI starts easing amidst potentially benign US and global macroeconomic outcomes.

The benchmark index Sensex has delivered a 9% return in three months after the general elections since 1991. The broader NSE index, Nifty50 has delivered 8% in six months after the general elections since 1991.

JPMorgan estimates that if the bear case scenario were to pan out, the Nifty50 index may witness a sharp drop and the index could plunge to 16,000. This is a 6,500-points correction from Nifty 50’s current market levels.

The brokerage has listed these reasons behind its bear case estimates—

— Election results are unexpected

— Global recession

— Geopolitical tensions

— Higher oil prices

— Higher domestic unemployment

Here are the stock picks by JPMorgan—

Indigenous Defense — Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, Solar, Mazagon, Bharat Dynamics, Cochin Shipyard, Kaynes tech, Data Patterns, BEML, Mishra Dhatu, MTAR Tech

Savers to Investors — HDFC Asset Management (JPM is Overweight), Kfin Tech (neutral), BSE, Nippon, Motilal, 360 One, Angel One, MCX, Nuvama, CAMS, CDSL, UTI AMC, Aditya Birla Sun life

Waterways — Container Corp (neutral), Adani Ports, Thermax, Mazagon, JSW Infra, SCI, ION Exchange, KNR, ITD, Va Tech, Welspun Ent

Affordable Housing — Pidilite (overweight), Macrotech (Neutral), Prestige (OW), LIC Housing (OW)

Ultratech, Ambuja, Shree Cement, ACC, Dalmia, JK Cement, Brigade, PNB Housing, Piramal Ent, NCC, Can Fin Homes, etc

Manufacturing — L&T, Siemens, ABB, BHEL, Cummins, Tube Investments, Thermax, Rail Vikas, Voltas, AIA Eng, Apar, Grindwell, IRCON, Elgi, Graphite, EIL, Voltamp

Electronics Manf — Havells (Neutral), Polycab, Dixon, Whirlpool, Kaynes, Amber, Bajaj Electricals, Cyient DLM

The general election, which begins on April 19, will be held in seven stages until June 1. The counting of votes will take place on June 4 and results are expected on the same day.

(With inputs from Ekta Batra)

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Dean Kim sees next Nifty support at 2% below current levels

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Dean Kim, Head of Global Research Product, William O’Neil + Co. predicts Nifty’s next crucial support level at its 100 day moving average (DMA), which is about 2% below the current level of 22,125.

The resistance is at 21-DMA, which is 1% higher than current levels, he told CNBC-TV18.

While Kim remains constructive on India, he has downgraded Japan and South Korea.

“All the other major Asian countries are under pressure including India. But at least in India, you are finding some support at the 50-DMA,” he added.

Among sectoral bets, Kim sees a lot of interesting names in basic material, and capital equipment.

“I am looking at BASF, Solar Industries, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), Zen Technologies and so on,” he said.

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Auto equipment makers Sona BLW Precision, Shriram Pistons and Rings, Indo Count, Finolex Industries, and some select financial names like Muthoot Finance, Central Depository Services (CDSL) and PFC are also looking attractive from an early-stage breakout, he added.

He believes in large-cap tech names, one may stay with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) versus Infosys at the moment.

“TCS is consolidating for the moment, so maybe wait for a breakout from the base. Infosys, on the other hand, looks fairly vulnerable. It is below the 200-DMA and looks like it must go lower, so I would be careful with Infosys,” he said.

Also Read | Trade Setup for April 18: Midcaps, Smallcaps offer some hope as Nifty grinds lower

Infosys will announce its results for the January to March 2024 quarter on April 18 after its peer TCS kicked off the Nifty 50 earnings last week.

A CNBC-TV18 poll of analysts suggests that India’s second-largest IT services company is likely to witness a revenue decline for the second quarter in a row while margin and profit shall increase marginally.

The guidance it gives for the 2024-25 fiscal year will be key to track.

For more, watch the accompanying video

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3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Sensex, Nifty close volatile session with gains ahead of US Fed interest rate decision this week

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Indian shares settled Monday’s volatile trading session with gains as the Street turned cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on March 20.

The benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex settled higher by 105 points, or 0.14%, at 72,748. The broader 50-share NSE Nifty50 rose by 32 points, or 0.15%, to close at 22,056. Metal and auto stocks led the gains, but IT and Teck shares capped the upside.

#MarketAtCLose | Market ends mixed in a rangebound session, broader market underperforms

Nifty holds on to 22,000 with Metals being a major support

Sensex rises 105 points to 72,748 & Nifty 32 points to 22,056

Nifty Bank down 18 points to 46,576 & Midcap Index 184 points to… pic.twitter.com/PpIUg2GVeF

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) March 18, 2024

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) rebounded more than 1.5% from the day’s low, lifting Sensex and Nifty. The oil-telecom-retail conglomerate settled 1.45% higher.

Tata Steel rose the most by 5% among Sensex gainers, followed by Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries and Maruti Suzuki among others.

IT shares declined amid investor worries over interest rates in the US market. Infosys fell the most by 2% among Sensex losers. Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, Wipro, Hindustan Unilever and Nestle also declined.

In the broader market, the BSE midcap gauge ended flat in the green, while the smallcap index ended flat in the red. Among sectoral indices, metal zoomed nearly 3%, auto gained over 1%.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth ₹2,051.09 in equities today, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹2,260.88 crore, according to the provisional data available on BSE.

#FundFlow | FIIs net sell ₹2,051.09 crore while DIIs net buy ₹2,260.88 crore in equities today (provisional) pic.twitter.com/2wchQfCJUC

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) March 18, 2024

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will commence on March 19 and the policy rate decision will be announced on Wednesday.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

NSE rejig: Shriram Finance to replace UPL in Nifty50 from March 28

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Non-banking financial company (NBFC) Shriram Finance will replace UPL Ltd in the broader Nifty50 from March 28, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) said on Wednesday, announcing a rejig of its key indices.

“The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (Equity) of NSE Indices Limited has decided to make the replacement of stocks in various indices as part of its periodic review as listed hereunder. These changes shall become effective from March 28, 2024 (close of March 27, 2024),” the NSE said.

According to the exchange, UPL has been removed from Nifty50 under its exclusion from the Nifty 100 index (a parent index for Nifty 50). Also, Shriram Finance has been included in the Nifty 50 index as it has the highest 6-month average free-float market capitalisation within the eligible universe as a replacement for UPL.

For Nifty Next 50, Adani Wilmar Ltd and Muthoot Finance Ltd, PI Industries Ltd, Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd and Shriram Finance Ltd were excluded.

Adani Power Ltd, Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd, Jio Financial Services Ltd, Power Finance Corporation Ltd and REC Ltd were included in the Nifty Next 50.

Also Watch | Sriram Velayudhan, VP of Alternative Research at IIFL Securities, delve into the index modifications during his interview with CNBC-TV18.

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3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Trade Setup for Feb 16: Nifty needs to cross these two levels to head towards 22,150

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In continuation to the prevailing trend, the Indian equity markets closed higher on Thursday, led by gains in Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid Corporation, HDFC Bank, the State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, among others.

The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex gained 228 points or 0.32% to settle at 72,050. The broader NSE Nifty rose 71 points or 0.32% to end at 21,911. In the broader market, Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 closed over 1% each. The broader market outperformance kept market breadth in favour of advances.

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The PSU stocks have resumed their ongoing rally after a short pause. Oil and gas posted solid gains following impressive quarterly results, improved gross refining margin and strong growth expected in India’s oil consumption going forward.

The Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) stock was the top Nifty gainer, surging 7% following a healthy set of Q3 earnings. M&M’s December quarter performance were in-line, driven by a strong growth in the SUV segment. A lot of brokerages continue to be bullish on the stock. CLSA, Nomura, and HSBC have ‘Buy’ recommendations and target prices of ₹2,074, ₹2,143, and ₹1,900, respectively, on the counter.

Shares of Paytm tumbled another 5% today to hit a fresh record low of ₹325.05 after the stock exchanges BSE and NSE revised the circuit limits lower to 5% from 10% earlier. Additionally, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) quizzed Paytm Payments Bank officials in connection with its investigation into alleged violations of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) by entities using the bank.

FIIs & DIIs

Foreign investors, meanwhile, were net sellers, selling ₹3,064.15 crore, in the cash market on February 15, while domestic investors were net buyers, buying ₹2,276.93 crore in equities today.

What Are The Experts Saying?

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, domestic equities are taking support from better-than-expected inflation, which would keep the trend positive. “With the end of Q3 result season, the focus is now shifting to fundamentals and economic macro data,” he said.

Nifty is now close to 22,000 as well as its all-time high; Khemka expects it to surpass these levels and touch new highs.

“The benchmark indexes inched higher, mirroring the positive sentiment prevailing in the global market. The disinflation trend in the eurozone, coupled with better earnings, lifted investor sentiment. Despite the broad-based recovery, market participants are more inclined towards quality large-cap stocks owing to the prevailing valuation gap, which led them to exercise caution on small and mid-caps,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said the rebound in the banking majors combined with rotational buying in other heavyweights is pushing the index higher; however the pace of rise is not over encouraging. “Besides, the recent dip in the US markets has also cautioned the participants. We thus recommend to avoid going overboard and preferring hedged trades.”

What Do The Nifty 50 Charts Indicate?

The Nifty 50 index opened with an upside gap of 66 points and showed volatility soon after the opening. It later shifted into a range bound action with positive bias in the mid part and moved up again towards the mid to later part of the session.

“A small body type candle was formed at the highs with minor upper and long lower shadow. Technically, this pattern indicates a formation of doji type candle pattern. Technically, such formations after a reasonable upmove or down moves signal impending trend reversals. Having formed this pattern after one day of upmove doesn’t show any predictive value,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

Shetti said that Nifty is currently placed at the edge of moving above the minor down trend line resistance around 21900-21950 levels. A decisive break above this hurdle could open the doors for new all time highs around 22150 levels. Immediate support is at 21800.

“Nifty exhibited volatility throughout the day but eventually closed above the resistance level of 21850. According to the daily chart, Nifty has experienced a consolidation breakout, indicating a positive shift in sentiment. Additionally, the index has closed above the 20DMA for the third consecutive session, and the RSI shows a bullish crossover,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities.

In the short term, the analyst expects a possibility of the index moving towards 22200. “On the downside, support is situated at 21750.”

Sheersham Gupta of Rupeezy said that put writing was significantly high in comparison to call writing at the strike prices of 21,900, 22,000, and 22,100 for the monthly expiry. “All these indicate that the market is ready for an up move. However, there is a strong supply zone between 22,000 and 22,100.”

Nifty Bank closes above 46k for 1st time since Feb 1

The Bank Nifty bulls maintained their strong dominance as the index closed above the 46000 mark for the first time since February 1. PNB, Federal Bank, Bank of Baroda, SBI and HDFC Bank led gains while selling was seen in Axis Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank.

“The Bank Nifty bulls maintained their strong dominance as the index closed above the 46000 mark. The immediate resistance for the index is situated at the 46600-46800 zone, and a successful breach above this level could pave the way for further upside towards the 48000 mark. The lower-end support has shifted to the 45800 mark, serving as a crucial cushion for the bulls in the current scenario,” said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50’s February futures shed 3.1% or 3.67 lakh shares in Open Interest on February 15. They are now trading at a premium of 94.30 points, compared to 76.80 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s February futures shed 9.5% or 2.97 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio remains at 1.19 as against 1.23 earlier.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for Feb 22 expiry:

For next week’s weekly options expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 21,900 and 22,100 have seen Open Interest addition, as did the 22,000 strike.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for Feb 22 expiry:

On the Put side though, the Nifty 50 strikes of 21,700 and 21,900 saw some writing, as did the 21,800 strike for February 22’s expiry.

F&O ban

Canara Bank has entered the F&O ban from today’s session.

Hindustan Copper, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Bandhan Bank, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Ashok Leyland, Biocon, Balrampur Chini, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, India Cements, Indus Towers, and SAIL continue to remain in the ban.

Aurobindo Pharma, National Aluminium, and PNB is out of the F&O ban list.

Stocks to track ahead of today’s trading session:

Axis Bank issued clarification on the transaction of shares with Max Life Insurance Company after the filing of a public interest writ petition by Subramanian Swamy against Union of India, Axis Bank, Axis Securities Limited, Axis Capital, and others before the High Court of Delhi. The bank said it has obtained all necessary regulatory approvals in connection with these transactions and would take the required steps to defend the bank against any unfounded allegations. The bank believes that there is no material impact from the allegations being made against Axis Bank in connection with the said transactions.

Max Financial Services issued clarification on the petition filed in the Delhi HC alleging that Axis Bank and its group companies have made undue profits from the purchase and sale of the equity shares of the material subsidiary of the company, i.e., Max Life Insurance Company. The company said the transactions were consummated after taking appropriate approvals from the respective regulators, namely the RBI, IRDAI, and CCI, and believes there is no legal or regulatory anomaly in the transactions and due process of law has been followed. The company and Max Life will take all requisite legal recourse to defend the matter before the Court.

UPL: Global rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded UPL Corporation’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to ‘BB+’, from ‘BBB-‘, citing the weak 9MFY24 EBITDA and lower global crop-protection industry demand due to prolonged destocking and production overcapacity in China. The outlook is negative.

On February 15, Carlyle Group sold equity stake worth ₹1,056 crore in Yes Bank on the BSE. According to market data, Carlyle Group sold 1.35% stake in Yes Bank through open market transactions.

Finsider International Company sold 6.55 crore shares or a 1.76% stake in mining major Vedanta Limited, according to bulk deals data released by BSE. This was part of an 8.2 crore share deal involving other buyers and sellers.

KPI Green Energy subsidiary KPIG Energia has received a new order of 1.5 MW for executing a solar power project under its captive power producer segment.

Entero Healthcare Solutions: The healthcare products distributor, is set to debut on the BSE and NSE on February 16. The final issue price has been fixed at ₹1,258 per share.

Wall Street ends higher

US stocks closed higher on Thursday as retail sales data declined more than expected, feeding hopes the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates in coming months.

A Commerce Department report showed US retail sales dropped 0.8% in January, weighed by declines at auto dealerships and gasoline service stations.

The S&P 500 gained 29.05 points, or 0.58%, to end at 5,029.67 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 47.03 points, or 0.30%, to 15,906.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350.07 points, or 0.91%, to 38,774.73.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Trade Setup for February 15: Nifty could retest 22000-22100 levels; what should traders do on Thursday?

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Defying negative cues from global peers, Indian equity markets staged a smart recovery during Wednesday’s intra-day trading to settle at day’s high led by gains in State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and other PSU banks, which continue to see buying interest among traders.

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At close, the BSE Sensex rose 267.64 points or 0.37% to settle at 71,822.83 and the Nifty50 gained 96.80 points or 0.45% to end at 21,840.05.

Banking stocks lead the recovery with the Nifty Bank index rising 3% from lows. SBI and Axis Bank stocks together contributed nearly 70% to Nifty Bank’s gain. Nifty Bank gained 406 points to end at 45,908 and the midcap index closed 496 points or 1% higher at 48,332.

IT and pharma, meanwhile, underperformed, tracking US inflation data, which further dented sentiment around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Both indices were down a percent each.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries Ltd extended its gaining streak, posting a record high for the second straight session. RIL became the first Indian company to reach ₹20 lakh crore in market value. It took the company 12 years to reach ₹10 lakh crore in 2017 from ₹1 lakh crore in 2005 and five more years to double to ₹20 lakh crore.

Foreign investors, meanwhile, were net sellers, selling ₹3,929.60 crore, in the cash market on February 14, while domestic investors were net buyers, buying ₹2,897.98 crore in equities today.

What Are The Experts Saying?

With result season almost over, the focus will shift to global cues and economic data points, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Khemka expects the market to see a gradual up move on back of strong fundamentals.

“The domestic market staged a recovery from day’s low, buoyed by renewed buying interest in banking stocks. Improving asset quality and the government’s continued focus on fiscal prudence attracted PSU banks, yet concerns lingered regarding their elevated valuations. The optimism was further supported by favourable inflation figures from the UK, contributing to a widespread recovery. However, IT shares experienced selling pressure following the release of higher-than-expected US CPI, prompting concerns over potential delays in interest rate cuts and its impact on client spending,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services.

What Do The Nifty 50 Charts Indicate?

The tussle shows consolidation amid mixed cues and Religare Broking’s Ajit Mishra feels it might continue in the near future. “In case of a further rebound, the 22,000-22,150 zone would continue to act as a hurdle in Nifty. Traders should stay focused on stock selection and refrain from aggressive bets.”

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty remained highly volatile, displaying predominant bullishness throughout the day following a weak start. “However, the sentiment remains sideways to negative as long as it stays below 21850. A decisive move above 21850 might trigger a strong rally in the market. Beyond 21850, the Nifty could potentially move towards 22200. Support for the near term is positioned at 21700.”

“A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart on Wednesday, that has engulfed the small bull candles of previous few sessions. This pattern could be considered as a bullish engulfing pattern, which indicates short term bottom reversal for the Nifty,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

Shetti said the immediate support of 21500 has been held on Wednesday’s volatile session and the short-term uptrend seems to be gaining momentum. “Nifty is currently placed at the edge of breaking above the immediate hurdle of 21850 levels and a decisive move above this resistance is likely to pull Nifty towards 22000-22100 levels in the short term. Immediate support is at 21720 levels.”

“Nifty once again held onto the support levels of 21500, marked by the 61.8% retracement of the recent rally from 21137 to 22126,” said Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One.

On the hourly chart, the analyst said that Nifty’s closure above 21800 surpassing the last three session’s high resembles a price breakout. “Sustained positive momentum, without significant global escalations, could lead Nifty to retest levels of 22000 – 22100. However, a strong upward trend would require surpassing 22100 to initiate a fresh upside. Support levels have shifted higher, with immediate support around 21650, and 21500 has gained significant credibility as a support level. As previously mentioned, a sharp sell-off would only occur if these support levels are breached.”

Nifty Bank bulls made a robust comeback

The BankNifty bulls made a robust comeback, overpowering the bears and successfully defending the crucial support at 45000, said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.

“The index is firmly in a buy mode, with immediate support at 45500 acting as a cushion for the bulls. The index is indicating an immediate target of 46500, and if it sustains above this level, further upside towards the 48000 mark can be anticipated,” Shah added.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50’s February futures shed 1.5% or 1.77 lakh shares in Open Interest on February 14. They are now trading at a premium of 76.80 points, compared to 80.50 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s February futures shed 5.8% or 1.93 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio remains at 1.23 as against 0.98 earlier.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for Feb 15 expiry:

For Thursday’s weekly options expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 21,850 and 21,950 have seen Open Interest addition, as did the 22,000 strike.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for Feb 15 expiry:

On the Put side though, the Nifty 50 strikes of 21,500 and 21,600 saw some writing, as did the 21,700 and 21,800 strikes for this week’s expiry.

F&O ban

Hindustan Copper has entered the F&O ban from today’s session.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Bandhan Bank, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Biocon, Balrampur Chini, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, India Cements, Indus Towers, National Aluminium, PNB, and SAIL continue to remain in the ban.

Here are a list of stocks you need to watch out for before Thursday’s trading session:

– Utkarsh Small Finance Bank board to meet to evaluate reverse merger with holding company, Utkarsh CoreInvest

– Hindustan Unilever (HUL) in talks with Andhra Pradesh government to collaborate on palm oil production. HUL seeks to partner with more than 15,000 farmers in Andhra Pradesh to create at least 30,000 hectares of oil palm plantations.

– Government approves appointment of Sanjay Kumar Jain as CMD of IRCTC with effect from February 14, 2024.

– Paytm issues clarification on news report ‘ED registers case against Paytm under FEMA violations’ and says Paytm Payments Bank does not undertake outward foreign remittance.

– Adani Enterprises: Mumbai Travel Retail, a step-down subsidiary of Adani Enterprises, has completed the incorporation process of a wholly owned subsidiary, namely OSPREE International FZCO, in the UAE.

– West Coast Paper Mills: West Coast Optilinks, a division of West Coast Paper Mills, has doubled its capacity for optical fiber cable production by setting up a new manufacturing unit at Fab City, Hyderabad.

– Sidwal Refrigeration Industries: The wholly owned material subsidiary of the company, has made a primary investment of Rs 100 crore in the equity share capital of Shivaliks Mercantile. The company will infuse the amount in two tranches.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Trade Setup for February 14: Nifty trend remains choppy in short-term; US inflation data in focus

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

The Indian stock market closed at day’s high amid volatility, regaining half of Monday’s losses. The Nifty50 index holds 21,700. The midcap index also recovered sharply, gaining about 1,000 points from lows.

At close, the Sensex rose 482.70 points or 0.68% at 71,555.19, and the Nifty gained 127.30 points or 0.59% at 21,743.30. The Nifty Bank index also shed previous session losses and settled 1.38% higher at 45,502.40.

Hindalco Industries, Grasim Industries, Divis Laboratories, UltraTech Cement and BPCL were among the top losers on the Nifty50 index, while gainers included Coal India, UPL, Axis Bank, HDFC Life and ICICI Bank.

All sectors ended in green, except metals. Banking and Financial Services were top gainers. The PSU sector has bounced back after witnessing profit booking over the last few trading sessions.

Meanwhile, foreign investors were net buyers, buying ₹376 crore, in the cash market on February 13, while domestic investors also bought ₹274 crore in equities.

What Are The Experts Saying?

Nifty bounced back from Monday’s losses after India’s CPI inflation came in at a three-month low of 5.10%. Going ahead, Nifty is expected to remain in the broader range given the lack of positive triggers globally and mixed set of domestic third quarter earnings, which too is unable to provide any support, said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Khemka said all eyes will now be on US inflation data that will be released Tuesday, as it will hold key importance from the US Fed interest rate cut point of view.

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the recent price action in the index shows indecisiveness among the participants; thus traders should continue with stock-specific approach and wait for clarity. “Besides, we suggest utilizing further rebound to reduce longs, especially in the PSUs and other overbought sectors or themes.”

“The domestic market largely recovered from yesterday’s losses, driven by gains in the banking sector. Improved sentiment stemmed from a decline in domestic inflation, which is expected to boost rural demand. Despite this, broader markets continued to underperform compared to frontline indices due to high valuations. However, investors remained cautious ahead of US inflation data, anticipating a moderation, pivotal for the Fed’s interest rate trajectory,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

What Do The Nifty50 Charts Indicate?

The Nifty exhibited volatility throughout the day, mostly fluctuating within the range of 21650 and 21750. The prevailing sentiment is expected to persist in a sideways to bearish direction as long as the index stays below 21850, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

On the downside, De said a short-term support level is identified at 21500. A “significant decline below 21500 could potentially initiate a correction towards 21270/21000. Conversely, on the upside, a decisive breakthrough above 21850 might trigger a rally towards 22200.”

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities expects the short-term trend of Nifty to remain choppy with alternative candle formations like bull and bear. “A sustainable move above the immediate resistance of 21800-21850 levels could open sharp upside towards another resistance of 22000-22100 levels in the near term.”

Nifty Bank remains in ‘buy’ mode

The bulls made a strong comeback, defending the critical support level of 44800, which now serves as a cushion for further upside, said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.

“The index remains in a buy mode as long as the mentioned support holds, and any dips should be utilized to add long positions. The immediate resistance on the upside is situated at 46000, where the highest open interest is built up on the call side, indicating a potential target for the bullish momentum,” Shah added.

Reliance becomes India’s 1st to hit ₹20 lakh cr in mcap

Reliance Industries, along with ICICI Bank, were among the biggest Nifty50 contributors. RIL also became the first Indian company to hit a market capitalization of ₹20 lakh crore.

The RIL stock also hit a new record high of ₹2,957 per share on the BSE and rose nearly 2% intraday on Tuesday. The Mukesh Ambani-owned company had first crossed the mark of ₹10 lakh crore in market capitalisation for the first time on November 28, 2019.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50’s February futures added 1.2% or 1.44 lakh shares in Open Interest on Tuesday. They are now trading at a premium of 80.50 points compared to 81.80 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s February futures added 2.8% or 89,745 shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio remains at 0.98 as against 0.85 earlier.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for Feb 15 expiry:

For this week’s weekly options expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 21,700 and 21,900 have seen Open Interest addition.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for Feb 15 expiry:

On the Put side though, the Nifty 50 strikes of 21,500 and 21,600 saw some writing, as did the 21,700 strike for this week’s expiry.

F&O ban

National Aluminium Company Limited have entered the F&O ban from today’s session.

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Bandhan Bank, Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Biocon, Balrampur Chini, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, India Cements, Indus Towers, PNB, and SAIL continue to remain in the ban.

Hindustan Copper is out of the F&O ban list.

Stocks to watch out for ahead of Wednesday’s trading session:

– Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) has signed a contract worth ₹2,167.47 crore with the Indian Navy on for the supply indigenously designed and developed Electronic Warfare (EW) suite for use on-board warship.

– Adani Group companies: About a year after revising its outlook to ‘Negative’ on four Adani Group companies following Hindenburg’s report, global ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has revised it back to ‘Stable’. Moody’s has revised the outlook on Adani Green Energy, Adani Green Energy Restricted Group (AGEL – RG-1), Adani Transmission Step One, and Adani Electricity Mumbai to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’, the agency said.

– Wipro has invested $66 million in the US-based Aggne Global Inc. to strengthen its consulting and services capabilities in the insurance sector. Now the company will be acquiring a 60% stake in Aggne and has kept the option to purchase the remaining stake over a period of time. The transaction is expected to be completed by February 14, 2024.

– Sula Vineyards has registered a net profit at ₹43 crore for the October–December period of FY24, growing 9.4% YoY, aided by healthy operating numbers. Revenue from operations grew by 4% YoY to ₹217.5 crore for the quarter, with the own brands segment growing 3.9% to ₹192.8 crore and the wine tourism business rising 16% to ₹14.7 crore during the quarter.

– IRCTC clocked a 17.4% YoY increase in standalone net profit at ₹300 crore for the quarter ended December FY24. Revenue from operations grew by 21.8% YoY to ₹1,118.3 crore for the quarter.

– Zee Ent has registered a 141% YoY rise in net profit at ₹58.5 crore for the third quarter of FY24, despite disappointing operating numbers. The base in Q3 FY23 was low as the profit was impacted by an exceptional loss. Revenue from operations fell 3% YoY to ₹2,045.7 crore for the quarter, while EBITDA plunged 42.9% year-on-year to ₹209.2 crore and margin declined 720 bps to 10.2% in Q3 FY24.

Global cues

Overnight in the US, the hotter-than-expected inflation data saw all three major indexes lose ground, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.35%, clocking its worst session since March 2023 on a percentage basis.

The S&P 500 slid 1.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8% to settle at 15,655.60.

US January inflation came in hotter than expected, with the consumer price index climbing 3.1% on a 12-month basis and 0.3% for the month.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% month over month and 3.9% from a year ago. Core CPI was expected to have increased 0.3% in January and 3.7% from a year earlier, respectively.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow