Tag: Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

RBI to hold rates, guidance on liquidity crucial

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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India’s monetary policy committee is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged to support recovering growth on Friday, but some analysts have cited a slim chance of the Reserve Bank of India delivering a token increase in the reverse repo rate.

All 60 forecasters in a Reuters poll said they see no change in the repo rate on Oct. 8. and though price pressures have soared due to rising fuel prices the RBI is only expected to raise the repo rate in April-June 2022.

“At the upcoming policy meet, we do not expect surprises on the policy rate front at a time when the economy is expected to see the much-awaited boost in consumption triggered by festive demand,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE ratings wrote.

“While the possibility of increasing the reverse repo rate cannot be ruled out, it looks unlikely to be a part of this statement,” he added.

In the minutes of the previous policy meeting in August, external member Jayant Varma argued for the need to raise the reverse repo rate to check growing inflationary pressures.

However, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra said in a speech in September that inflationary pressures were still being driven by supply shocks and would ease only gradually.

Talk of an outside chance of a reverse repo hike has grown in recent days after the RBI set higher-than-expected cut-offs at the variable rate reverse repo auctions, which traders saw as a sign of the RBI’s discomfort with exiting low yield levels.

The repo rate, after being cut by 115 basis points (bps) in early 2020, has been held at a record low of 4% since May 2020, while the reverse repo rate was reduced by 155 bps to 3.35%.

Inflation as per the latest poll is forecast to be well above RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, but was projected to remain below the 6% upper threshold until at least end-2024.

Traders will closely monitor RBI’s guidance on liquidity withdrawal with surplus cash in the banking system having topped 10 trillion rupees ($134 billion) in recent weeks.

“Given the flush liquidity in the system, there are clearly reduced chances of the RBI announcing another GSAP (government securities acquisition programme) for the next quarter,” said Arun Srinivasan, head of fixed income at ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.

“Even if the RBI does make the announcement, it will be in the form of operation twists which the RBI has resorted to recently,” he added.

($1 = 74.6360 Indian rupees)

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RBI policy not as hawkish as what market interpreted, says ICICI Bank’s B Prasanna

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The RBI’s monetary policy committee on Friday maintained status quo on the key policy rates — repo rate and reserve repo rate. While the stance remained “accommodative”, the vote was not unanimous.

One MPC member, Jayanth Varma, voted against it while five others voted for it.

The central bank has hiked its inflation forecast for this financial year from 5.1 percent earlier to 5.7 percent. This was slightly higher than the 5.5 percent forecast that most investors were expecting. The market has responded by pushing bond yields slightly higher.

The RBI maintained its GDP growth forecast for the year at 9.5 percent. Governor Shaktikanta Das said growth is improving but the recovery is still weak and overcast due to the pandemic.

B Prasanna, Head of Global Markets at ICICI Bank, said, “I would take it as a marginally less dovish policy and not exactly a hawkish policy. The reason the market took it little on the hawkish side is because of three things – first was the fact that there was a dissent on the accommodative nature of the policy itself. Second was because of the inflation estimate having been revised much higher than the market consensus.”

“Market was veering around 5.3-5.5 percent but RBI has taken it even higher. Third was the fact that RBI has laid out a plan for taking out liquidity through use of variable reverse repo rate (VRRR) over the next couple of months. My personal view is that it is possibly not as hawkish as what the market today has interpreted it.”

While giving his take on RBI policy, Ashwini Kumar Tewari, MD of International Banking at SBI, said, “Governor very clearly said that the accommodative stance will continue as long as necessary and the growth has to be supported at all costs. So, what we are seeing, in fact, is quite the opposite in our corporate finance limited deals, whatever are happening, the interest rates so far it is downwards. Therefore, the kind of fine pricing we are seeing at the moment in the market I don’t see anyway that the interest rate movement is reversing at the moment. So that is where we are actually and the borrowers are having the best of the time.”

On home loans, Tewari said, “So the home loan rates, I think are kind of bottomed out. We keep having promotions on processing fees, etc. So I don’t see the rates going down further in the home loan space. In any case it is a product where the margins are very, very low to begin with. So therefore, I don’t see rates coming down from 6.7. The processing fee, of course, we have waived it at the moment as you know.”

On inflation, Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, said, “Inflation has been higher than 4 percent for 21 months in a row and you know, half the times out of this 21 months, it was even higher than 6 percent. At some point, if the market start assuming that the RBI is comfortable with inflation at 6 percent, then all the benefits of having the inflation target at 4 percent will be lost. So, that is something you know, the RBI has to be very clear about.”

She added, “The other thing it has to be very clear about is that look, it is focusing on growth, but what does it want to achieve from growth. Monetary policy is strictly counter cyclical, it can help close the output gap, but it can’t be used to increase potential growth. When you have an RBI, which keeps talking about the investment cycle and overtime rising, you sort of start thinking that what is the RBI focusing on? Is it focusing on closing the output gap or is it focusing on long term drivers of growth? It should be very clear here, that it’s its focus eventually is its inflation target. So, yes, I think, you know, if it continues this way, there could be some sense of falling behind the curve.”

“I don’t think we are there yet now. But my sense is that if you don’t have a disruptive third wave, if vaccination continues, then by the fourth quarter of this year, the RBI should definitely get on to a gradual tightening path.”

For full interview, watch accompanying video…

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Citizens’ MPC’s policy expectations: RBI to hold rates; focus on core inflation

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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CNBC-TV18’s Citizens Monetary Policy Committee is of the view that RBI will hold rates and maintain stance on August 6. However, it is likely to raise its inflation forecast. Our panel of experts also believe that by next policy, RBI must start normalising rates by first decreasing liquidity and then raising reverse repo rate.

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will issue its statement against a very mixed background. Globally, the Fed has been saying that there will be a considerable time before it even considers a rate hike. However, domestic inflation data has been on the higher side.

CNBC-TV18’s Citizens Monetary Policy Committee which as eminent names such as Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI, Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan, Samiran Chakraborty of Citi, Sonal Varma of Nomura and Former Chief Statistician, Pronab Sen, weighed in on the issues at hand.

On inflation

“Central banks around the world are confronting, how much of this inflation is transitory and pandemic induced and how much is going to last. In India’s case, it is a bit of both in the sense that, some of the recent spikes in core have been because of the second wave and the lockdowns. But I think there are two things that that the MPC will focus on. One is that if you just take a more holistic view of inflation over the last 18 months a core inflation has averaged above 5 percent since the pandemic began. So this is not a two or three month phenomenon, it actually lasted over the last 18 months. The second thing that is unique about India, vis-à-vis the US, for example, is that we have actually seen inflation expectations move up. Again, if you take March last year as your starting point, the RBI’s own household survey has inflation expectations up between 100 and 150 basis points, depending on which measure you look at. The reason the Fed can be even more patient is because they don’t think inflation expectations are at the place where they wanted to be. So I think there is no doubt that there is a durable component to India’s core inflation, and inflation expectations increasingly, that are going to, impact the MPC” – Sajjid Chinoy

“We can debate a lot about the transitory versus the permanent component of inflation and what this exceptional stimulus is doing to inflation. But, if you just simply look at the commodity prices, it appears to be a mixed bag, where we think that metal prices will remain significantly elevated can go up from current levels. But energy prices after seeing a peak out in third quarter of the calendar should stabilise and we are already seeing that agricultural prices starting to cool off. So, with that backdrop, global inflation we think is going to average around the 3 percent mark and global growth is going to be around 5.9 percent for the full year 2021.” – Samiran Chakraborty

Global backdrop

“I think the way our guides are looking at it is that we are past the peak optimism on global growth. But at the same time, we are probably past the peak anxiety on global inflation as well. So in a sense, what is going on here is that in most countries, the max stimulus is already behind us. We are seeing some amount of slowdown in China happening in the second half of the calendar year, and we are seeing the third wave to some extent, affecting global activity as well. So, these are the three channels to which the headwinds to demand is coming.” – Samiran Chakraborty

COVID-19 impact

“We don’t think RBI is going to revise the growth numbers. It does appear now that the hit from second wave is perhaps less than what was feared which is not surprising to us and the recovery has also been quite swift. But more recently we have again started seeing cases pickup not just in Kerala and North east India but across the number of other states also. So I think while the rebound has been stronger than expected the assessment of whether the recovery is durable or sustainable cannot be convincingly made right now and therefore I agree with Sajjid that the RBI is likely to revise up its inflation forecast, but the GDP forecast will be retained.” – Sonal Varma

For full interview, watch accompanying video

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI’s MPC starts deliberating on next monetary policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed rate-setting panel MPC started its three-day deliberation on the next monetary policy on Monday amid sudden surge in COVID-19 cases and the government’s recent mandate asking the central bank to keep retail inflation around 4 percent. The Reserve Bank will announce the resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on April 7.

Experts are of the view that the Reserve Bank will maintain status-quo on policy rates at its first bi-monthly monetary policy review for the current fiscal. It is also likely to maintain an accommodative policy stance. The policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate is currently at 4 percent, and the reverse repo rate is 3.35 percent.

Last month, the government had asked the Reserve Bank to maintain retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2 percent on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026. M Govinda Rao Chief Economic Advisor, Brickwork Ratings (BWR) said, given the rise in the spread of coronavirus infections and the imposition of fresh restrictions to contain the virus spread in the major parts of the country, RBI is likely to continue with its accommodative monetary policy stance in the upcoming MPC meeting.

”Considering the elevated inflation levels, BWR expects the RBI MPC to adopt a cautious approach and hold the repo rate at 4 percent,” Rao said. Rao noted that in the last MPC, RBI initiated measures towards the rationalisation of excess liquidity from the system by announcing a phased hike in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for restoration to 4 percent.

”In the current scenario, the RBI may like to drain in excess liquidity, while higher borrowings and the frontloading of 60 percent borrowings in H1 FY21 may put pressure on yields, and hence, the RBI may go slow in reversing its liquidity measures announced as a COVID stimulus since March 2020,” Rao added. Meanwhile, G Murlidhar, MD and CEO, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company said 2021 has seen a rise in yields across the globe in line with vaccination-led optimism.

”However, the case for India is a little different this time, with rapid rise in new COVID cases over last few weeks. In upcoming policy, MPC may continue to emphasise the importance of ’orderly evolution of yield curve’ given benign inflation trajectory and second wave headwinds to nascent growth recovery,” said Murlidhar. In a bid to control price rise, the government in 2016 had given a mandate to RBI to keep the retail inflation at 4 percent with a margin of 2 percent on either side for a five-year period ending March 31, 2021.

The central bank mainly factors in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index while arriving at its monetary policy. On February 5, after the last MPC meet, the central bank had kept the key interest rate (repo) unchanged citing inflationary concerns.

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Indianomics: Experts discuss RBI’s inflation targetting

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recommended that the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) mandate should continue to be an inflation target of 2-6 percent. Here is the back story: RBI became an inflation targeting central bank in 2015. That year RBI and government signed an agreement setting up an MPC with 3 external members and 3 RBI members. This MPC was to set interest rates in such a way that inflation remains at 4 percent – plus or minus 2 percent – that is consumer price index (CPI) should be in 2 percent and 6 percent at all times. This mandate was for five years which ends on March 31. RBI wants the mandate extended as is for the next five years. Should the government agree? Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Economist JP Morgan India, and Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, Research Director at IDFC Institute discussed this.

“The initial five-years of inflation targeting – I would say – has been a success. Firstly, undoubtedly inflation has come down, it has trended down over these years, there have been ups and downs. I think this declining trend in inflation to some extent has cooled a bit. RBI has to be given the credit for that. Secondly, the gap between Indian inflation and international inflation has also narrowed especially in the years between 2010 and 2013-2014. That tells you a lot about macrostability and the management of the economy. So in terms of these two simple measures, core inflation trend and the differential between Indian inflation and international inflation we have done well,” said Rajadhyaksha.

“Fundamentally, in the medium-term there is no trade-off between growth and inflation. That is fundamental to inflation targeting that the best service that monetary policy makers can pay to growth in the medium-term is to keep inflation well-anchored and contained because we know high inflation is volatile inflation, it creates macroeconomic uncertainty, vitiates the investment environment, it puts downward pressure on the rupee. So let us be clear that in the medium-term there is no trade-off between growth and inflation,” Chinoy mentioned.

For entire discussion, watch the video…

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Realtors welcome RBI decision to maintain status quo on policy rates

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Realtors on Friday welcomed the RBI’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged and its projection of revival in economic growth, saying this will lead to continuation of low interest rate regime on home loans and boost housing demand.

The RBI kept benchmark rate unchanged for third time in a row at 4 per cent. It expects the economy to record positive growth in the second half of 2020-21. The economy contracted by 23.9 per cent in the first quarter and 7.5 per cent in the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

”Home loans will continue to remain at attractive rates, this should augur well for home buying sentiment,” Naredco President Niranjan Hiranandani said. The positive economic growth forecast for the second half of this fiscal would help boost housing demand, he added. Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO of CBRE India, South East Asia, Middle East & Africa, said:The RBI’s decision of keeping the repo rate unchanged was on expected lines owing to the rise in inflation in recent months. The strengthening of recovery in rural demand and the momentum gain across urban sector will support the realty sector, he said.

”Additionally, policy support being provided by the government will continue to boost residential uptake and support construction activity in the upcoming months,” Magazine said.

Kalpataru MD Parag Munot saidit is good news for homebuyers as home loan interest rates are expected to remain at current levels in the ongoing fiscal. ”Continuation of low rates, along with reduced stamp duty and various developer schemes will keepup the robustmomentum. Importantly it will serve as the springboard for real estate growth in the next fiscal, as the economy recovers from pandemic’s impact,” Munot said.

Gaurs group MD Manoj Gaur said the housing demand has improved of late. ”With low home loan interest rates, we see increased sales in the coming quarter.” The growth projections of the RBI will instil positive sentiment in the market, which will translate into good numbers for the real estate sector too, said Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder & Chairman Signature Global.

Housing brokerage firm Anarock Chairman Anuj Puri said an unchanged repo rate will ensure that home loan interest rates will not harden anytime soon. Dhruv Agarwala, group CEO, Housing.com,Makaan.comandProptiger, said the RBI move to maintain status quo on policy rates was expected in the face of persistently high retail inflation. ”Interest rates on home loans are already at sub-7 per cent level, with banks offering further sweeteners such as processing fee waivers among many others. We hope banks will continue to lend vigorously to the real estate sector,” he said.

JLL India CEO and Country Head Ramesh Nair said the RBI’s decision to hold the rate will help homebuyers to avail the benefit of the prevailing lowest mortgage rates. ”Green shoots of recovery armed with other incentives such as stamp duty reduction in some states and the flexibility of developers in offering best prices/payment schemes will help in further improving home sales,” he added.

Knight Frank India CMD Shishir Baijal said the low home loan interest rates have played a key role in rekindling the latent demand in housing market by nudging home buyers to make purchase decisions even during the pandemic. ”RBI’s decision to keep the rates unchanged will keep the momentum of demand intact to provide the much needed stability, aseven while there is recovery in the economy, it is still fragile and highly volatile,” he said.

Kaushal Agarwal – Chairman, The Guardians Real Estate Advisory, said:”With commercial banks being asked to consolidate profits and not distribute dividends, its time the banks further sweeten the lending rates.” Mumbai-based S Raheja RealtyDirector Ram Raheja saidthe real estate sector was expecting a rate cut which would have given further impetus to demand and induce liquidity in the market.

Achal Raina, COO, Raheja Developers, said there are positives to be taken from the RBI’s MPC announcement, which includes a positive outlook towards economic growth. Amit Modi, Director ABA CORP, said the move was on expected lines and hope banks would continue to fund aggressively to homebuyers and developers. Yash Migalni, MD, Migsun Group, said low interest rate in home loan helped in increasing demand during festive season and hoped sales would continue to improve in coming months.

The industry and the government should strive to revive homebuyer’s sentiments, said Ankush kaul, President (Sales & Marketing), Ambience Group. Manju Yagnik, Vice Chairperson of Nahar Group,said the government’s ongoing policy support on rates and taxes for the housing sector indicates that the worst is behind us. ”We feel that a rate cut now would have given some respite to the real estate sector which has been facing headwinds due to the pandemic,” said Lincoln Bennet Rodrigues, Founder and Chairman, Bennet & Bernard Group.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI Monetary Policy: MPC maintaining liquidity; growth given a chance, say bankers

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank kept the repo rate unchanged at four percent and maintained an ‘accommodative’ stance.

“The RBI and the MPC has achieved far more than what the market could have expected,” said Ashwani Bhatia, MD at State Bank of India (SBI) in an interview with CNBC-TV18. “The other key takeaway is the fact that RBI is willing to give growth a chance, it is not very concerned or bothered about inflation,” he said.

According to Bhatia, the RBI governor wants to develop the credit market, the bond market and also ensure that urban cooperative banks, regional rural banks and NBFCs also become part of the formal banking system.

“Liquidity at the lower end has helped the markets, has helped the NBFCs – that is welcome. RBI is not removing liquidity, is not in a hurry should soothe nerves,” Bhatia said.

“First of all the declaration of policy is to continue with the sentiment that is there in the market, they have not changed anything, that is a good measure,” said SS Mallikarjuna Rao, MD & CEO at Punjab National Bank (PNB).

“Currently liquidity is available in the market. The expectation of RBI for the market is that there could be a credit growth in the months of December and January. That is the reason why the RBI did not want to touch upon that. In February when they will come with the policy, they will probably discuss this,” Rao mentioned.

Rao expects the pent-up demand in terms of auto loans and housing loans to continue till March 2021. “I foresee that the credit growth could grow from here, it could reach up to 8 percent in the days to come,” he said.

For more, watch the video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI to come out with digital payment security control directions: Governor Das

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the central bank will be introducing digital payment security control directions for regulated entities. Such a move will improve the security of digital payment channels and also convenience for users, Das said in a statement released after the bi-monthly review of the monetary policy in which RBI opted for a status quo in rates.

These directions will contain requirements for robust governance, implementation and monitoring of certain minimum standards on common security controls for channels like internet and mobile banking, card payments, etc, Das said. Draft directions on the same will be issued soon for public comments, he added.

The announcement comes a day after the RBI temporarily barred largest private sector lender HDFC Bank from selling new credit cards or launching new digital banking initiatives, taking a serious view of service outages at the systemically important bank over the last two years. The digital banking app of the country’s largest lender SBI was also facing service outages on Thursday, the second time in a week that the bank was struggling with the service.

Also Read: HDFC Bank CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan apologises to customers; says bank working on war footing to resolve IT issues

On Thursday, Das said preservation of financial stability and depositors’ interest is the uppermost priority on the RBI’s agenda and cited the rescues of Yes Bank and Lakshmi Vilas Bank as efforts in the same direction. While we are constantly focused on strengthening the regulations and deepening our supervision, financial sector entities like banks and NBFCs should also give highest priority to quality of governance, risk management and internal controls, he said.

He said the banks and non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) are the first line of defence in matters relating to financial sector stability.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI extends LAF and MSF to Regional Rural Banks along with calls in money market

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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After banks and NBFCs, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now decided to facilitate a more efficient liquidity management in Regional Rural Banks (RRBs).

Accordingly, the apex bank has decided to extend the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) to RRBs. It has also decided to permit the RRBs to participate in the Call/Notice money market, both as borrowers and lenders.

RRBs are currently not permitted to access the liquidity windows of the Reserve Bank as well as the call/notice money market. RBI will issue instructions on liquidity enhancing measures for RRBs soon.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 4 percent and maintained an ‘accommodative’ stance.

The apex bank has projected FY21 real GDP contraction at 7.5 percent as against an expectation of 9.5 percent contraction earlier. Announcing its bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the economy is expected to witness positive GDP growth in the second half of FY21 (H2FY21).

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow