Tag: Market analysts

This $54 million fund manger says bank stocks aren’t so bad anymore

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Leading portfolio management services firm First Global has added a banking stock in its portfolio after a long gap as it believes that some of the stocks in the banking and financial services sector are beginning to look better now.

First Global, which has recently added positions in commodities, metals and cement, said its latest addition has been a bank.

“Our latest addition has been a bank. Banking as a whole — we still remain underweight but after a bad phase, it is not looking so bad. Some of the stocks are beginning to look better,”  said Devina Mehra, Founder, Chairperson and Managing Director, in an interview.

Sharing her insights on the likely market response to general election 2024 results, Mehra said, post elections, the impact on markets will be only temporary even if the incumbent government doesn’t come back with a majority.

“We focus too much on election results.  (But) the markets have a mind of their own,” she added citing the example of the results of 2004 general elections, when Vajpayee government lost power, contrary to general expectation.

First Global had done its quarterly rebalance of its portfolio in April. Things have not changed from there. “Industrials and capital goods — we have been overweight since October 2021 whereas most people started talking about it only last year — 2023,” Mehra said.

“We are not as overweight as we used to be but we are still overweight,” she added.

Also Read | IT is a ‘wait and watch’ for us, says ICICI Pru AMC’s Anand Shah

According to her, the story is still not over, and thus she still remains overweight.

“Pharmaceuticals, auto, construction are the other things we have been overweight on,” she said.

Also Read | Once Nifty crosses 22,500 and 22,800, we can see a 5-6% upmove, says Gautam Shah

Mehra expects IT to bottom out sometime this year and will give a good buying opportunity.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

IT is a ‘wait and watch’ for us, says ICICI Pru AMC’s Anand Shah

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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According to Anand Shah, Head of PMS and AIF Investments at ICICI Pru AMC, information technology (IT) is a great business as it generates good profits, and has also been rewarding investors with dividends and buybacks etc. However, currently, the sector is facing growth challenges.

“So it is a wait and watch for us. We have not owned IT for the last 18 months. We are still looking to see what is the right time to own it,” he said.

While there is euphoria in various segments of the market, private banking has been a laggard and valuations now look reasonable, he stated.

He believes valuations are no longer as compelling as they were three years back. “To that extent, the way forward would be bottom-up, stock picking and within that market is in the mood to reward the market share gainers,” he said.

Also Read | Rooftop solar key to meeting India’s growing energy needs, say experts

Assuming there is a political continuity post-general elections 2024, he believes the key focus will be on manufacturing.

“As a country, we have been a large consumer of goods but weren’t the large manufacturer of goods. That is something which is changing. As a government and as a country, we are geared to get the manufacturing going in this country after a long time,” he observed.

Also Read | PSU Alert: NHPC announces collaboration with a Norwegian company, market cap nears ₹1 lakh crore

Shah thinks this is a good time for corporates to start with capacity expansions (capex) not only for domestic consumption, and import substitution but also for exports.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Once Nifty crosses 22,500 and 22,800, we can see a 5-6% upmove, says Gautam Shah

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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If the Nifty 50 crosses the crucial thresholds of 22,500 and 22,800, investors can expect a significant uptrend ranging between 5% and 6%, Gautam Shah, founder and chief strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research, told CNBC-TV18 recently.

“However, the trade is not about the Nifty and the Bank Nifty. Stay with the outperforming sectors, there is still a lot of money to be made,” he added.

He believes the index is safe till it is above 22,800 and the long-term investors should look at this market and stay with it going forward.

Commenting on the prevailing market sentiment, Shah emphasised that this is a bull market where over-analysis may not be necessary. Instead, he recommended investors to remain steadfast in their positions and refrain from making impulsive decisions. “It is a bull market where you don’t need to overanalyse. I think you just need to say in the bus and not think about getting off on every single correction that happens from time-to-time,” Shah said.

Also Read | Secret to succeed in stock market — Ambit Group CEO Ashok Wadhwa reveals key factors

According to him, general elections 2024 in some sense is a non-event. “In that sense, I don’t think the market is very excited or worried about it,” he said.

He believes, the big trigger for market is going to be earnings and whether the Indian market can deliver on the fundamentals.

Shah further expressed confidence in State Bank of India (SBI) within the public sector undertaking (PSU) banking segment and ICICI Bank among private banks.

Moreover, Shah identified the metal index as the trade of the year. He believes it is set for another 10-15% upside.

Other high conviction idea that he has is chemicals. “SRF, Tata Chemical, Deepak Nitrite, Aarti Industries are all very good stories coming out of two to two and a half years of consolidation,” he said.

Metals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and select banks and select PSUs are the spaces that he likes.

In particular, Shah expressed optimism regarding the chemicals sector, noting that the uptrend observed since 2020 has resumed. This resurgence in the chemicals industry indicates promising prospects for investors seeking growth opportunities in the market.

“All the top quality stocks in chemicals should do well over the next 6-12 months,” he said.

From auto sector, he likes Eicher Motors and Escorts Kubota.

“These two stocks could do special things along with Maruti Suzuki,” he said.

He believes these three names could generate alpha for investors over the next 6-12 months.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Why Vetri Subramaniam remains positive on BFSI amid tightening regulations

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Vetri Subramaniam, Chief Investment Officer at UTI AMC, maintains a positive outlook on the banking and financial services sector, despite the Reserve Bank of India’s tighter regulations casting a shadow over the industry’s sentiment.

“My larger call on banks and the financial sector would remain that these are some of the best balance sheets that we have seen in the banking sector in many years (pretty much 20 years),” he said.

While there can be stock-specific setbacks, but those can be handled with diversification, he said. “I would still be quite positive about the banking sector in terms of potential – not just outperformance but absolute returns over a two-year perspective.”

Also Read | RBI plans curbs on suspect bank accounts to fight cyber fraud: Report

Discussing about his expectations on corporate earnings, Subramaniam said the focus for the current financial year (FY25) will be on volume growth. FY24 earnings were more margin led and the best of the margin is now behind us.

Also Read | Microsoft sales, profit beat expectations on AI demand; Stock jumps 5% afterhours

The global picture, he says, could be more tricky as there has been a very big shift in the kind of expectations for interest rate policy by the US Federal Reserve.

“At the start of the year, people were thinking about 5-6 rate cuts by the US Fed and now people are talking about the possibility that the next move by the Fed might be up rather than down,” he said.

According to Subramaniam, Indian IT companies are some of the most globally competitive companies.

The kind of capex that has been seen in the US tech signals better times ahead for the Indian IT sector.

“Into any kind of weakness or bad news – that is when you get valuations which are more attractive, I would be pretty happy to look at the IT sector,” he added.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Kotak’s Sanjeev Prasad shares outlook on telecom, power, and cement sectors

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Sanjeev Prasad, MD and Co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, discussed the key takeaways from the brokerage’s recently-released note covering comprehensive sectoral analysis during an interview with CNBC-TV18.

In the telecom space, Prasad expects a decent tariff increase post-election and that should support earnings momentum for some more time.

Prasad has been positive on Bharti Airtel for a long time. “The stock has done well. That was our call earlier that even if it becomes a two-player market, it will be for Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio. Now it looks like it will remain a three-player market with Vodafone Idea,” he said.

Also Read | Reliance Industries shares may go up to ₹3,479, say analysts after strong Q4 results

In the power sector, he believes the market is more focused on short-term issues and focusing too much on thermal capacity generation without paying much attention to the long term issues.

However, Prasad says, “The move is clearly towards renewables and that pace will accelerate going forward. Between solar and thermal, it is very clear that solar is much cheaper now,” he said.

He noted that solar modules are now cheaper and aid in lower costs of power.

In the cement sector, he cannot understand how fundamentally a capital intensive sector can have price to earnings (P/E) of nearly 30-35 times

According to Prasad, the P/E cannot be higher than 15-20 times for cement companies.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Ravi Dharamshi lists top sectors on his radar

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Ravi Dharamshi, Chief Investment Officer at ValueQuest Investment Advisors, who manages funds worth $1.3 billion, believes that the key factors driving the market now are policy continuity and political stability.

“I don’t think that election has a reason for markets to move more than 5-7%,” he said in an interaction with CNBC-TV18.

Also Read | Harsha Upadhyaya is bullish on these sectors

Dharamshi currently has domestic-focused sectors on his radar rather than export-oriented sectors.

“Within domestic-oriented sectors, we were focused more on cyclicals, capital goods, autos, and financials are likely to do well,” he said.

Pharmaceutical and chemical sectors, he believes, fall in the category of sectors that have not done well for the last three to four years, hence he sees opportunity in these sectors.

A top-down sectoral view might not be the correct way to look at it and more bottom-up stock picking in these sectors is what we should do, he said.

Also Read | Andrew Holland says current market dip presents a good entry opportunity

He likes pharma intermediates baskets also.

According to him, the manufacturing sector is on the rise, along with an uptick in the capital goods cycle.

Currently, real estate is doing well primarily in the premium segment, while affordable housing faces challenges.

Also Read | Nifty to stay in 21,850-22,250 range near term, Gautam Shah expects these two sectors to shine

He foresees a significant boost to India’s auto component ecosystem with the entry of industry giant Tesla. “We all should be looking forward to the entry of Tesla into India. It will give a boost to an entirely new ecosystem, auto component ecosystem,” he stated.

He is hopeful of seeing a lot of new electric vehicle (EV) variants coming to the market with a lot of new launches.

Over the next five to seven years, he said, we can expect the EV passenger vehicle percentage in the markets to go up by 10-20% and the penetration levels will rise.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Harsha Upadhyaya is bullish on these sectors

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Kotak Mahindra AMC’s President and CIO-Equity Harsha Upadhyaya, who manages funds worth ₹3,203 crore is overweight on domestic cyclicals such as industrials, cement, automobiles, among others.

He is also bullish on two-wheelers, citing sustained volume growth and improving margin profiles as key drivers.

“We continue to be positive on two-wheelers within the automobile segment. After a long time, we have seen volume growth sustaining and also the impact of two-wheeler electric vehicle (EV) seems to be not as much as what the market was fearing earlier,” he added.

Upadhyaya has some position in banking and financials but is still underweight on the sector.

Also Read | Ashish Kacholia Portfolio: Veteran investor buys stake in this microcap pharma stock

According to him, valuations in the market continue to be the primary risk for the market at this point in time.

Along with that, the Middle-Eastern conflict also seems to be escalating. “We need to watch that space and also how it impacts the crude oil price. That is going to be very important,” he said.

Current valuations don’t leave any room for disappointment, so the earnings delivery is crucial for the markets to sustain these levels or go higher from these levels.

What happens in the Middle East is going to be crucial in the very short term, he said.

Also Read | Bonus Shares: This broking firm will reward shareholders on April 26

He has also booked some profits in the IT sector when the sector witnessed an upmove in recent times.

“Overall it doesn’t seem that immediately there is going to be anything that is going to excite the market from the IT sector,” he said.

Also Read | Bajaj Auto strong Q4 show gets the company three target price hikes — Should you buy?

Pharmaceuticals, he believes, is one space where one can have a neutral position at this point in time.

This is because the domestic as well as export growth continues to be reasonable and there are no large regulatory headwinds at this point in time.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Andrew Holland says current market dip presents a good entry opportunity

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Andrew Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Avendus Alternate Strategies, does not see the minor dips in market as an overly negative sign. In fact, they could present good buying opportunities.

“It is a good time to dip back into the market. If you like the themes that you want to play for the next two to three years, these are the opportunities you get and continue to deploy money at this point,” he added.

Holland also shared his view on metals after the new US and UK sanctions that banned deliveries of any Russian supplies produced after midnight on Friday,

“Metals have performed very well and I think that will continue, particularly now that there’s sanctions going against Russia going forward. And we’ll see what the London Metal Exchange (LME) says. But that’s good for the likes of copper and aluminium going forward. The way to play it would be more aluminium, copper versus steel at this point,” he says.

Aluminium and nickel surged on the LME as traders responded to new US and UK sanctions.

The US and the UK imposed new restrictions on trading Russian aluminium, copper and nickel that will reverberate across global metal markets, in the latest bid to curb President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine.

The rules prohibit the delivery of new supplies from Russia to the London Metal Exchange—where the global benchmark prices are set—as well as to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Discussing the first January-March 2024 quarterly result, Holland said Tata Consultancy Services‘ (TCS) results were good when seen against the headwinds that the company were facing.

He sees a bottoming out here for the IT sector. “If TCS is a bellwether of what we can expect from other companies, I think there is still more interest towards this sector,” he said.

Also Read | K Krithivasan of TCS expects margins to sustain at current levels

In terms of the themes to watch out for post the general election 2024, he believes it is not going to change.

“Defence spending, renewable energy, railways, infrastructure – those are the big spending, the government’s going to do, and that has multiplier effects across many different industries,” he noted.

He is also positive on other themes such as premiumisation in the beverage market, leisure in terms of hotels and airlines, and the electronic manufacturing sector.

These sectors, he believes, have long runways of growth over the next two to three years. So the government is likely to enhance this and help in terms of spending on infrastructure, tourism, or the electronic manufacturing sector, in terms of production linked incentives (PLIs).

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Nifty to stay in 21,850-22,250 range near term, Gautam Shah expects these two sectors to shine

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Gautam Shah, Founder and Chief Strategist, Goldilocks Premium Research believes it is not going to be easy for the Nifty to break the 21,850-22,250 range in the near term given the limited participation from some heavyweights.

“In December,  IT, Reliance Industries (RIL) and banks did well and that is probably the reason the Nifty gradually moved to levels of 22,000 and beyond. For the last month, it is just the burden on RIL to keep this market safe. Banks have come off in the last 15 days and HDFC does not outperform. The move on the IT index in the last week has been discouraging,” he said.

Shah expects the pharma and metals spaces to be outperformers in the next three to six months.

He sees a 20% move in the metals index over the next six to twelve months and within the metal space two public sector units (PSUs)–NALCO and SAIL–stand out.

“Both these stocks have the potential to register supernormal gains this year,” he said.

In the pharma sector, he expects a 15% move on the pharma index from here. Sun Pharma remains his top pick. Cipla, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, and Zydus Lifesciences all have great charts and will continue to outperform, he mentioned.

Also Read | Nifty Smallcap index sees worst week since Dec 2022; 87 out of 100 stocks post losses

Discussing IT stocks, he mentioned that he has been a bull on the IT space for the last six months. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and HCLTech remain on top of his list.

However, he is concerned about the big debate around artificial intelligence (AI) and whether it is going to disrupt the IT space in general and the Indian IT services space.

“Apart from the top two three names, I want to stay away from the IT space till things stabilise,” he said.

He also discussed a couple of commodity bets.

Nymex crude, he said, is gradually moving towards the level of $90-95 per barrel given what it has done in the last one to one and a half months.

“There are some near-term risks but it is a battle between short-term and long-term. Short-term there are concerns, medium-term and long-term this is a great opportunity to do your homework and pick quality stocks to play the next wave up,” he explained.

Also Read | Oil declines as industry report shows sizable US stockpile build

He expects the chemical index to see a breakout on the upside and stocks like Aarti Industries, and SRF could be potential beneficiaries.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Devina Mehra outlines strategy to navigate market volatility, cautions against these risky bets

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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While a major market crash seems unlikely anytime soon, First Global’s Founder, Chairperson & MD, Devina Mehra believes investors must be ready for a sideways correction or consolidation. The best way to navigate such a volatile market is to hedge your portfolio well, she said.

First Global currently has more than 75% of its portfolio hedged, Mehra said, adding that “if there is a sharper correction than expected, we are hedged. But on the other hand, since our view is that there is no big risk in the medium term, we don’t want to be out of the market and miss out on a possible up move.”

Hedging involves using alternate financial instruments to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a portfolio, essentially insuring against extreme market moves.

She advises investors to steer clear of high risk bets such as the microcap, and smallcap segments, and companies coming up with initial public offerings (IPOs).

Mehra’s advise comes on a day when both the benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 slumped close to a percent in early trade, before recovering mid-day on buying in select midcaps. Negative cues in the global market with higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the US have hit investor sentiments.

Also Read | Bernstein CY24 market outlook: Moderate year for India, China to bottom out

Mehra also shared her preferred picks sectoral picks and those she is cautious on.

She is overweight on autos and auto components since the beginning of 2023. She has been positive on Tata Motors as well.

“Banking is still something among the major sectors that I would say one should be careful of,” she said.

Also Read | Market outlook 2024: Vinit Sambre bets on these sectors

Sharing her views on the recent crisis at Paytm, she said, First Global never bought the stock or studied it in depth. “At the IPO time, I clearly thought it was overpriced. Not just that, the whole slew of new-age IPOs that came out in 2021,” she added.

On January 31, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) pronounced a rather unusual death sentence for Paytm Payments Bank. It barred the bank from undertaking any banking activities whatsoever — no deposits, no credit transactions, no wallet top ups, no bill payments, nothing — after February 29.

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow