Kotak Mahindra Bank shares jump 6% after multiple analyst upgrades post Q4
Summary
Analysts at most brokerage firms remained bullish on the Kotak Mahindra Bank stock despite negativity around recent senior management exits and an upset Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. were trading with gains of up to 6% on Monday. The trigger for Kotak was its all-round better-that-expected results for the March quarter (Q4), which were announced over the weekend.
Analysts at most brokerage firms remained bullish on the Kotak Mahindra Bank stock despite negativity around recent senior management exits and an upset Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Since the central bank’s action, Kotak shares have fallen nearly 14%. At 11 am today, the scrip was trading 5.41% higher at ₹1,630.40 apiece on the NSE. It also hit a day’s high of ₹1,633 and a day’s low of ₹1,594.
Global brokerage firm Nomura has upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and gave a target price of ₹2,000 per share, saying that a high quality stock is now at a bargain.
Although Nomura highlighted the elevated slippages during the March quarter, the brokerage said that asset quality for the private sector lender remains well in control.
Nomura said that resolution of the RBI’s restrictions and any further churn in the top management will be the key to watch, the current valuations for Kotak remain attractive.
JPMorgan has upgraded Kotak to ‘Overweight’ from its earlier rating of ‘Neutral’, citing supportive valuations. The brokerage has a price target of ₹2,070 on the stock.
JPMorgan said that the operating metrics in the March quarter for Kotak were strong with notable fee income growth.
The foreign brokerage said that Kotak Mahindra Bank can continue to grow the balance sheet at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% over the next two years.
According to Kotak’s management, the RBI order to stop onboarding new online and credit card customers is expected to hit profit before tax by ₹300-450 crore per annum. However, brokerage firm Emkay Global believes that the impact on its business and financials could be far higher, as seen in HDFC Bank.
“Management remains hopeful of resolving the RBI’s concerns that ultimately led to the current embargo, but we believe that fulfilling the RBI’s requirement—for external audit followed by corrective measures to the Regulator’s satisfaction—for lifting the ban, is a task easier said than done,” it said.
Higher attrition, including in key managerial personnel, and the bank’s strategy to reduce provision buffers as against its peers, adds to Emkay’s concerns. The brokerage has retained a ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock with a lower target price of ₹1,625 per share from ₹1,750 earlier.
With one-offs and the digital ban, Nuvama has maintained a ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,530 per share. While the CEO pointed to a low, net-PBT impact of ₹450 crore from the digital ban, it is unclear how the ban impacts customer acquisition, yields, asset growth and what sacrifices shall be made to BAU opex to maintain tech spend at 10% of opex.
Given the bank’s near-term challenges on growth, higher opex largely towards tech and normalising credit costs with bank pursuing growth in unsecured book, Axis Securities have ‘Reduced’ its earnings estimates by 4-7% over FY24-26. It expects Kotak’s return on asset and return on equity to be limited to 2.2% and 13-14%, respectively, over FY25 to FY26.
The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ recommendation on the counter with a target price of ₹1,755 per share.
Out of the 43 analysts who have coverage on the Kotak stock, 24 have maintained a ‘Buy’ recommendation, while 12 of them have a ‘Hold’ rating. Seven analysts have a ‘Sell’ recommendation on the lender.
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