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IMF raises India’s FY25 growth forecast to 6.8%; pegs global growth at 3.2% in 2024, 2025

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Although the IMF has revised India’s growth forecast up, it still trails the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7% growth in FY25. Thereafter, the IMF sees India’s growth slowing to 6.5% by FY26, at the same level as its previous update in January.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, compared with its earlier January update. The latest projections were part of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook update for April.

Although the IMF has revised India’s growth forecast up, it still trails the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7% growth in FY25. Thereafter, the IMF sees India’s growth slowing to 6.5% by FY26, at the same level as its previous update in January.

“Growth in India is projected to remain strong at 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, with the robustness reflecting continuing strength in domestic demand and a rising working-age population,” the IMF said in its report.

The IMF sees India’s consumer price inflation cooling off from an average of 5.4% in FY24, to 4.6% in FY25, and further to 4.2% in FY26.

The inflation projections are marginally higher than Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates, which pegs FY25 consumer inflation to average 4.5%.

Global Outlook

The IMF said in its report that the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with growth holding steady as inflation returns to target.

Global growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025, the IMF said in its report. The forecast for 2024 is revised up by 0.1 percentage point from the January World Economic Outlook Update.

“Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose. The journey has been eventful, starting with supply-chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic, an energy and food crisis triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine, a considerable surge in inflation, followed by a globally synchronised monetary policy tightening,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist at the IMF.

“Even more encouraging, we now estimate that there will be less economic scarring from the pandemic—the projected drop in output relative to prepandemic projections—for most countries and regions, especially for emerging market economies, thanks in part to robust employment growth. Astonishingly, the US economy has already surged past its prepandemic trend,” the IMF said in its report.

The IMF’s latest forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1%—however, is at its lowest in decades, the agency warned.

Advanced economies are expected to see growth rise slightly, with the increase mainly reflecting a recovery in the euro area from low growth in 2023, whereas emerging market and developing economies are expected to experience stable growth through 2024 and 2025, with regional differences, as per IMF.

For advanced economies, growth is projected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. In the United States, growth is projected to increase to 2.7% in 2024, before slowing to 1.9% in 2025, as gradual fiscal tightening and a softening in labour markets slow aggregate demand.

In emerging markets and developing economies, growth is expected to be stable at 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, with a moderation in emerging and developing Asia offset mainly by rising growth for economies in the Middle East and Central Asia and for sub-Saharan Africa.

Growth in China is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025 as the positive effects of one-off factors—including the post-pandemic boost to consumption and fiscal stimulus—ease and weakness in the property sector persists, IMF said.

“Nevertheless, the projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8%, reflecting restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support, as well as low underlying productivity growth,” the report said.

Global Inflation Outlook

Global headline inflation is expected to fall from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies, the IMF said in its report. IMF said that prices of fuel commodities are projected to fall in 2024 by, on average, 9.7%, with oil prices falling by about 2.5%.

Risks to Growth Outlook

The risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced, said the IMF. On the downside, new price spikes stemming from geopolitical tensions, including those from the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza and Israel, could, along with persistent core inflation where labour markets are still tight, raise interest rate expectations and reduce asset prices, it said.

A divergence in disinflation speeds among major economies could also cause currency movements that put financial sectors under pressure, IMF said in its report. High-interest rates could have greater cooling effects than envisaged as fixed-rate mortgages reset and households contend with high debt, causing financial stress, it added.

In China, without a comprehensive response to the troubled property sector, growth could falter, hurting trading partners, the report pointed out. IMF said that amid high government debt in many economies, a disruptive turn to tax hikes and spending cuts could weaken activity, erode confidence, and sap support for reform and spending to reduce risks from climate change. Geo-economic fragmentation could intensify, with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital, and people implying a supply-side slowdown, the IMF warned.

On the upside, looser fiscal policy than necessary and assumed in projections could raise economic activity in the short term, although risking more costly policy adjustment later on, IMF said. Inflation could fall faster than expected amid further gains in labor force participation, allowing central banks to bring easing plans forward. Artificial intelligence and stronger structural reforms than anticipated could spur productivity, it said.

“As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, by neither easing policies prematurely nor delaying too long and causing target undershoots…Cross-country differences call for tailored policy responses,” the report added.

ALSO READ | Central banks globally may start cutting rates by second half of 2024: IMF

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Central banks globally may start cutting rates by second half of 2024: IMF

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Among major central banks, by the fourth quarter of 2024, the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is expected to decline from its current level of about 5.4% to 4.6%, the IMF said in its report.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects major central banks worldwide to start cutting key policy rates by the second half of the year, as inflation declines and inflation expectations remain anchored, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

“With inflation projected to continue declining toward targets and longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored, policy rates of central banks in major advanced economies are generally expected to start declining in the second half of 2024,” the IMF said.

Among major central banks, by the fourth quarter of 2024, the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is expected to decline from its current level of about 5.4% to 4.6%, the IMF said in its report.

The Bank of England is expected to reduce its policy rate from about 5.3% to 4.8%, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce its short-term rate from about 4.0% to 3.3%, the IMF added.

For Japan, the IMF said, policy rates are projected to rise gradually, reflecting growing confidence that inflation will sustainably converge to target over the medium term despite Japan’s history of deflation.

The report also highlighted that, though major central banks have raised policy interest rates to “restrictive” levels, concerns about high rates leading to an economic downturn globally did not materialise for several reasons.

“To counter rising inflation, major central banks have raised policy interest rates to levels estimated as restrictive. As a result, mortgage costs have increased and credit availability is generally tight, resulting in difficulties for firms refinancing their debt, rising corporate bankruptcies, and subdued business and residential investment in several economies. The commercial real estate sector, including office markets, is under especially strong pressure in some economies, with rising defaults and lower investment and valuations, reflecting the combined effects of higher borrowing costs and the shift toward remote work since the pandemic,” it said in the report.

Concerns of a global economic downturn caused by a sharp rise in policy rates, however, have not materialised as some central banks—including the ECB and the Federal Reserve—raised their nominal interest rates after inflation expectations started to rise, resulting in lower real rates that initially supported economic activity, the report concluded.

The Bank of Japan has continued to keep policy rates near zero, resulting in a steady decline in real interest rates, the IMF said, adding that, by contrast, the central banks of Brazil, Chile, and several other emerging market and developing economies raised rates relatively quickly, resulting in earlier increases in real interest rates.

Second, the IMF said, households in major advanced economies were able to draw on substantial savings accumulated during the pandemic to limit the impact of higher borrowing costs on their spending.

Third, changes in mortgage and housing markets over the pre-pandemic decade of low interest rates have limited the drag of the recent rise in policy rates on household consumption in several economies, the IMF added.

“As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation comes down smoothly; they should neither ease policies prematurely nor delay too long and risk causing target undershoots,” the IMF said in its report.

The IMF has pegged global growth, which stood at 3.2% in 2023, to continue at the same pace in both 2024 and 2025.

ALSO READ | IMF raises India’s FY25 growth forecast to 6.8%; pegs global growth at 3.2% in 2024, 2025

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Kristalina Georgieva elected to serve as IMF Managing Director for another five years

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Under Georgieva’s leadership, the IMF approved more than $360 billion in new financing for 97 countries since the start of the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board has elected Kristalina Georgieva to continue serving as its Managing Director for a second five-year term, according to an official statement.

This decision was taken by consensus, according to the IMF.

Georgieva’s second five-year term will commence on October 1, 2024. She has been serving as IMF’s Managing Director since October 1, 2019.

Under Georgieva’s leadership, the IMF approved more than $360 billion in new financing for 97 countries since the start of the pandemic. Additionally, it also provided debt service relief to the poorest, most vulnerable members and allocated nearly $650 billion under a Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation.

The IMF over the last five years has also secured a 50% quota increase to bolster its permanent resources and also agreed to add a third Sub-Saharan African chair to the IMF board.

“Looking ahead, the Board welcomes Ms. Georgieva’s ongoing emphasis on issues of macroeconomic and financial stability, while also ensuring that the Fund continues to adapt and evolve to meet the needs of its entire membership,” an IMF statement said.

A Bulgarian national, Georgieva has previously served as World Bank’s CEO from January 2017. She was also interim president for the World Bank Group between February and April, 2019. She has also served at the European Commission as Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response along with its Vice President for Budget and Human Resources.

“The IMF’s financial support, policy advice and capacity development work—delivered by our exceptional staff—have contributed to countries’ capacity to deal with high uncertainty and abrupt shifts in economic conditions. We are and will remain a transmission line of good policies for our members and will continue to strive to be more effective, incisive and a welcoming place for countries to come together to tackle global challenges,” Georgieva said after being re-elected.

Last week, the IMF said that it will nudge its global growth forecast slightly higher, while warning that the world economy still risks a “Tepid Twenties” this decade if inflation and debt challenges are not addressed.

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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IMF distances itself from Subramanian’s 8% India growth prediction

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Subramanian, at an event in New Delhi on March 28, had said the Indian economy could grow at 8% till 2047, if the country redoubles the good policies that it has implemented over the last 10 years and accelerates reforms.

The recent remarks of Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund, about India’s growth figures do not represent the views of the IMF and were in his role as India’s representative at the global body, the IMF has said.

“The views conveyed …by Mr. Subramanian were in his role as India’s representative at the IMF,” Julie Kozack, IMF spokesperson, told reporters here on Thursday.

She was responding to a question on recent remarks by Subramanian, in which he projected a growth rate of 8% for India, which is different from the last growth rate projections by the IMF.

Subramanian, at an event in New Delhi on March 28, had said the Indian economy could grow at 8% till 2047, if the country redoubles the good policies that it has implemented over the last 10 years and accelerates reforms.

“So, the basic idea is that with the kind of growth that India has registered in the last 10 years, if we can redouble the good policies that we have implemented over the last 10 years and accelerate the reforms, then India can grow at 8% from here on till 2047,” he had said.

The IMF spokesperson clarified, “We do have an Executive Board. That Executive Board is made up of executive directors who are representatives of countries or groups of countries, and they make up the Executive Board of the IMF. And that’s distinct, of course, from the work of the IMF staff.” The IMF will be updating its World Economic Outlook in the next couple of weeks.

“But our growth projections as of January were for medium term growth of 6.5%, and that was a slight upward revision relative to October. Again, we will be presenting the latest forecast in just a couple of weeks,” Kozack said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Egypt devalues its currency by over 30%, rates hike by 600 basis points

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

A new devaluation became possible after Cairo struck a $35 billion deal late last month with the United Arab Emirates to develop parts of Egypt’s Mediterranean coast and elsewhere, as per Bloomberg.

Egypt devalued its currency, allowing it to weaken around 35%, following a massive interest-rate hike by a country embroiled in its worst economic crisis in decades.

The pound plunged to 48.18 per dollar as of 12 pm in Cairo on Wednesday, having traded at about 30.9 for the past year. It moved minutes after the central bank raised rates at an unscheduled meeting and said it will allow the market to determine the exchange rate.

The move raised the key rate by 600 basis points to 27.25%, according to a statement by the central bank, which also said that unifying the nation’s exchange rates is “crucial.” The decision likely paves the way for an agreement with the International Monetary Fund on increasing Egypt’s current $3 billion loan to more than $10 billion, including funds from other partners.

A new devaluation became possible after Cairo struck a $35 billion deal late last month with the United Arab Emirates to develop parts of Egypt’s Mediterranean coast and elsewhere. Authorities described it as the biggest investment commitment ever secured by Egypt and the scale of it took investors by surprise.

Egypt’s dollar bonds rallied significantly after Tuesday’s decisions. Government debt due in 2047 led the advance, gaining 4 cents on the dollar to around 82 cents.

“We’ll have to wait to see where it settles,” said Farouk Soussa, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., referring to the currency. “We expect 45-50. The big surprise of the day was the mega hike, which over delivered and has boosted confidence in the market.” 

The devaluation brought the pound to a level around its value on the black market. The IMF has encouraged Egypt to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation of almost 30% and adopt a more flexible official exchange rate.

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee said it had “decided to accelerate the monetary tightening process in order to fast-track the disinflation path and ensure a decline in underlying inflation.”

The Muslim holy month of Ramadan, set to begin on Sunday, posed an informal deadline for authorities to implement a devaluation. It’s a period of big family gatherings and expansive evening meals, and authorities were unlikely to wait until then to hand Egyptians a sudden price shock.

What Bloomberg Economics says

“The arrival of the UAE bailout has unlocked the policy chain reaction in Egypt. The central bank has lifted interest rates. Authorities have floated the currency, and the gap with the black market should close. What’s next? A deal with the IMF is likely in the next few hours.”

Egypt’s bond spreads over US Treasury yields narrowed, according to indicative quotes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. They fell to 43 basis points to 529, the data showed.

Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 stock index gained as much as 4.5% to a record, led by gains in Commercial International Bank. Lenders stand to benefit from higher interest rates.

Exporters like Abou Kir Fertilizers & Chemical Industries Co., which benefit from a weak domestic currency, were also among the stocks rising the most.

The IMF has delayed two reviews of Egypt’s existing program after the country appeared to fall short on promises to allow what the central bank called a “durably flexible” exchange-rate regime. Previous bouts of depreciation — in March 2022, October 2022 and January 2023 — were followed by long stretches of stability. 

The IMF is keen to protect the $400 billion economy that’s vulnerable after growing reliant on substantial foreign-exchange inflows from both tourism and Suez Canal fees. 

The waterway—a critical source of income usually amounting to billions of dollars a year — could be threatened by attacks in the Red Sea that are causing many shipping firms to stop using the canal. 

“It cannot be ruled out that in the short-term the exchange rate will overshoot, it might take a few days or weeks for the exchange rate to stabilize around its new equilibrium level,” said Gergely Urmossy, emerging markets strategist at Societe Generale SA. If the central bank “transitions away from the hard peg, Egypt’s outlook will improve not only cyclically but also structurally,” he said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Pakistan to seek at least $6 billion in new IMF loan program

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The South Asian nation will seek to negotiate an Extended Fund Facility with the IMF, the official said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. Talks with the Washington-based lender are expected to start in March or April, the person said.

Pakistan plans to seek a new loan of at least $6 billion from the International Monetary Fund to help the incoming government repay billions of dollars in debt due this year, according to a Pakistani official.

The South Asian nation will seek to negotiate an Extended Fund Facility with the IMF, the official said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. Talks with the Washington-based lender are expected to start in March or April, the person said.

Pakistan is trying to avert an economic crisis after a contentious election that saw the nation’s two main political dynasties form a coalition to keep out of power the party of jailed former leader Imran Khan. Shehbaz Sharif, who’s been nominated as prime minister, said last week that negotiating a fresh IMF loan will be a priority for the new administration.

Pakistan’s finance ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pakistan faces $25 billion of external debt payments in the fiscal year starting July, about three times its foreign-exchange reserves. The EFF loans are typically approved for three to four years to support policies to fix structural imbalances and are repaid after 4.5 to 12 years.

Investors have been watching the post-election developments closely, concerned that political uncertainty would hinder the nation’s ability to secure more funding, thereby increasing the risk of a debt default. Fitch Ratings Ltd. said this week that failure to procure the loan would “increase external liquidity stress and raise the probability of default.”

Sharif, who was prime minister from 2022 until last year, had success previously in negotiating funding with the IMF. He helped obtain a nine-month, $3 billion loan under the fund’s Stand-By Arrangement in June. Pakistan has a final review under that loan program, which could unlock about $1.1 billion in funding before the facility expires in April. The nation has to repay a $1 billion dollar bond in April.

For a new loan program, the incoming administration would need to make a formal request to the IMF after it takes office. The amount of funding would depend on subsequent talks with the lender.

The IMF said in a statement that it’s “available, if requested, to support the post-election government through a new arrangement to address Pakistan’s ongoing challenges.”

It also said the fund continues to talk with Pakistan about needed longer-term economic changes, including the best ways to bolster government revenues, improve the energy sector, liberalise the country’s exchange rate, overhaul state-owned enterprises and strengthen its resilience to climate shocks.

Pakistan has received 23 bailout packages from the IMF since gaining its independence in 1947, among the most of any country in the world.

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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IMF report on India debt: Government says report only talks of “worst case scenario”

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

India’s general government debt is majorly rupee-denominated with external borrowings contributing a minimal amount, a fact that is highlighted in the IMF report.

The government on Friday clarified that the International Monetary Fund’s case of India’s debt touching 100% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by financial year 2028 is only a “worse-case scenario and not a fait accompli.”

Fait accompli is something that has already happened or been decided before those affected hear about it, leaving them with no option but to accept it.

In a detailed clarification, the government explained that among the various favourable and unfavourable scenarios listed by the IMF like a once-in-a-century Covid-19, the government’s debt could by 100% of GDP under adverse shocks by financial year 2028.

The Finance Ministry also highlighted that the debt of both the centre and states has come down since 2021. “General government debt has steeply declined to 81% in financial year 2023 from 88% in financial year 2021,” the clarification said, adding that the centre is on track to achieve its stated fiscal consolidation aim of below 4.5% by financial year 2026.

“It is also expected that the combined government debt will decline substantially in the medium-to-long term,” the statement said.

India’s general government debt is majorly rupee-denominated with external borrowings contributing a minimal amount, a fact that is highlighted in the IMF report.

Domestically issued debt, which is largely in the form of government bonds, is mostly medium or long-term, with a weighted average maturity of nearly 12 years for the central government debt. “Therefore, the rollover risk is low for domestic debt, and the exposure to volatility in exchange rates tends to be on the lower end,” the government added.

“The shocks experienced this century by India were global in nature, like the global financial crisis, the taper tantrum, Covid-19 among others,” the Finance Ministry said, adding that these shocks uniformly affected the global economy. Therefore, any adverse global shock or extreme event is expected to unidirectionally impact all the economies in an interconnected and globalised world, the ministry said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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IMF warns Europe against prematurely declaring victory over inflation

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The Washington-based IMF said that cost of underestimating inflation’s persistence could be painfully high and result in another painful round of rate hikes that could rob the economy of a large chunk of growth.

The European Central Bank and other policymakers across Europe need to keep interest rates at current elevated levels until they’re sure inflation is under control despite sluggish growth, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, warning against “premature celebration” as inflation declines from its peak.

The Washington-based IMF said that cost of underestimating inflation’s persistence could be painfully high and result in another painful round of rate hikes that could rob the economy of a large chunk of growth.

The European Central Bank and the other central banks that aren’t part of the 20-country eurozone “are reaching the peak of their interest rate cycles, while some have started to reduce policy rates,” the IMF said in its twice-yearly regional economic outlook for Europe. “Nonetheless, a prolonged restrictive stance is still necessary to ensure that inflation moves back to target.”

Historically, it takes an average of three years to return inflation to lower levels, while some anti-inflation campaigns have taken even longer, the IMF said. While central banks appear to have ended their series of hikes, a failure to finish the job and the resulting return to rate hikes could cost as much as a full percentage point of annual economic output.

Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF’s Europe department, warned against “premature celebration” as he spoke to journalists in connection with the outlook. “It is less costly to be too tight than too loose” with interest-rate policy, Kammer said. The ECB, which halted its rate increases at its October 26 for the first time in over a year, “is in a good spot,” he said.

Inflation in the eurozone peaked at 10.6% in October 2022, and has steadily fallen to 2.9% in October.

The European Central Bank has raised its benchmark deposit rate by fully 4.5 percentage points between July 2022 and September 2023, from minus 0.5% to 4%. Higher rates are the typical tool central banks use to control inflation, since higher rates mean higher borrowing costs for consumer purchases and financing new officials and factory equipment. That reduces demand for goods and eases pressure on prices, but can also hurt growth – a difficult tightrope act for the ECB.

The IMF said Europe was headed for “a soft landing” after the impact of the rate hikes and did not foresee a recession, while growth forecasts remained uncertain and could turn out better or worse than expected.

It forecasts growth of 0.7% for this year for the eurozone and 1.2% next year. If inflation falls faster than expected, it will boost consumer real income and spending and growth might improve. But an escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine and accompanying increased sanctions and disruptions to trade could mean weaker growth.

For now, the monthlong war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has led to a temporary rise in oil prices but has not disrupted the European economy, Kammer said.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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IMF-World Bank 2023 Annual Meetings: Ajay Banga urges collaboration to fight ‘perfect storm’ of poverty, climate change

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Ajay Banga, World Bank Group President, delivered a speech at the 2023 Annual Meetings Plenary in Marrakesh, addressing challenges such as declining progress in poverty reduction, climate crises, and the need for innovative financing.

World Bank President Ajay Banga delivered a speech on Friday (October 13) at the 2023 Annual Meetings Plenary of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Marrakesh, Morocco. During his address, Banga acknowledged the challenges faced by the rapidly changing world and called for collaboration between countries.

Expressing his concern over the declining progress in the fight against poverty, the World Bank president also pointed towards the existential climate crisis, food insecurity, and the impact of conflicts worldwide such as the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

One of the key points in Banga’s address was the decline in economic growth in the developing world. He pointed out that economic growth has been falling from 6% to 5% over two decades and is on track for just 4% over the next seven years. Banga highlighted the grim consequences of this, with every lost percentage point pushing millions into poverty.

The speech also emphasised the importance of focusing on women and young people, particularly in the workforce. Banga called for gender equality and youth employment, recognising the demographic challenges faced by the Global South.

Banga also unveiled the World Bank’s new vision and mission — to create a world free of poverty on a liveable planet. He stressed the urgency of this mission and highlighted the need for innovative approaches to finance a different world where a “perfect storm” of climate change, post-pandemic consequences and poverty is brewing.

“We face declining progress in our fight against poverty, an existential climate crisis, food insecurity, fragility, a fledgling pandemic recovery, and are feeling the effects of conflicts beyond the front,” Banga said. “A perfect storm of intertwined challenges and geopolitical complexity that taken together exacerbate inequality.”

Further, Banga discussed the importance of collaboration with the private sector to mobilise resources and drive sustainable progress. He outlined the World Bank’s initiatives, such as the Private Sector Investment Lab, aimed at increasing private investment in renewable energy and the energy transition in developing countries.

“Though we don’t have all the answers now, and those we are working toward will take time, we do have desire, energy, and focus,” Banga said.

The speech ended with a call to action, urging governments, shareholders, and philanthropies to step up and support the World Bank’s efforts. Banga emphasised the need for a new, streamlined approach that focuses on achieving impact at scale.

The plenary was also attended by Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

“We are custodians of an institution with a tremendous responsibility at a time of uncertainty and great consequence,” Banga said, referring to the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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IMF MD Georgieva urges countries to implement growth oriented reforms for economic recovery

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Speaking at G20 Leaders’ Summit here, Georgieva said, G20 members must lead by example in delivering on the promises of USD 100 billion per year for climate finance, supported by strengthening Multilateral Development Banks(MDBs).

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday said global recovery is slow and uneven and underscored the need to pursue sound policies for financial stability and growth-oriented structural reforms.

Speaking at G20 Leaders’ Summit here, Georgieva said, G20 members must lead by example in delivering on the promises of USD 100 billion per year for climate finance, supported by strengthening Multilateral Development Banks(MDBs).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has secured over USD 40 billion to support vulnerable countries through its Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) to build climate resilience, she said.

Countries also need to mobilize domestic resources to finance and manage the green transition through tax reforms, effective and efficient public spending, strong fiscal institutions, and deep local debt markets, she said.

Observing that global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is slow and uneven, she said, all countries should pursue sound policies to support economic and financial stability and growth-oriented structural reforms against this background.

This is especially important in emerging and developing countries, where such reforms can boost output by up to 8 per cent over 4 years, she said.

“We also need to further invest in international cooperation. This implies swiftly addressing debt problems where they arise, including through the G20 Common Framework and the new Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable,” she said.

To make the global economy stronger and more resilient in a more shock-prone world, she said, it is vital to reach an agreement to increase IMF’s quota resources before the end of the year and secure the needed resources for the Fund’s interest-free support to the poorest countries through the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust.

During the India Presidency a, lot of work has been done on MDB reforms, a government official said, adding, ”quota reforms are under discussion and we do expect that something will come out.” This is one of the priorities under the India Presidency and quota reforms agenda is expected to come up in Marrakesh, Morocco meeting of the finance ministers and Central Bank Governors next month, the official said.

To build a prosperous future, Georgieva said the world needs to harness the potential of digital technology and India’s achievement in developing top-tier digital public infrastructure (DPI) stands as a beacon for others.

“More work lies ahead, including in the realm of digital money and crypto assets. To this end, G20 has tasked relevant institutions to improve regulation and supervision of crypto assets—the IMF is contributing to proposals for a comprehensive policy framework; and advance the debate on how central bank digital currencies could impact the global economy and financial system,” she said.

Appreciating that India’s G20 presidency is a powerful reminder that when the international community comes together to solve global problems, much can be accomplished, she underlined the need to further strengthening the bonds of international cooperation to create a more prosperous and resilient global economy for all.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
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10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?