Tag: inflation

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Problem In Perspective

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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At the beginning of this month, Venezuela’s opposition-dominated National Assembly released a report showing that the country’s annual inflation rate increased to a mind-blowing 13,779 percent over the past year. That corresponds with a projection made by the International Monetary Fund and visualized on the following infographic which shows that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will be more than 13,800 percent this year. Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, has an even higher estimate. He claims that inflation rose by 16,000 percent over the past 12 months.

Even though Venezuela is oil rich, it’s cash-poor and suffers from severe shortages of food and medicine. The government has not published inflation statistics since 2015 and critics have claimed this is an attempt to conceal the scale of the problem. Venezuela’s currency is worthless, a fact that can be clearly seen by the fact that a cup of coffee cost 2,000 bolivares a year ago. Today it would cost 200,000. Using the IMF’s projections, the infographic shows how the situation compares to other countries.

This article first appeared on Statista.com

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bank of Korea holds rates as inflation trails target, trade fears remain

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Bank of Korea held interest rates steady for a sixth straight month on Thursday, with inflation seen remaining below target and trade frictions between the United States and China raising fears of collateral damage to other export-reliant Asian economies.

The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy committee held its base rate steady at 1.5 percent, in line with forecasts from 13 analysts surveyed in a Reuters poll.

Market players took Thursday’s decision in stride. The Korean won was up 0.1 percent as of 0105 GMT versus its previous close, while June contract on 3-year treasury bond futures increased by 0.07 points 107.83.

A majority of analysts see the central bank raising its benchmark rate in July, which they believe would be the only increase this year. There is no monetary policy meeting scheduled for June.

Moon Hong-chul, an economist at Dongbu Financial Investment said there may have been a dissenting vote at Thursday’s meeting.

“The BOK will look for opportunities to raise interest rates to stay aligned with policy tightening in the US, to reduce interest rate differential. As such, there could be a dissenter at Thursday’s meeting, even though it’s a hold,” Moon said.

Any dissenting votes will be announced by Governor Lee Ju-yeol at the start of his news conference later in the day.

South Korean policymakers are increasingly concerned about the collateral damage to Korea’s own exports from the Sino-US trade dispute. A fall in China’s exports to the United States would hurt Korean shipments to China, including large volumes of intermediary goods used in China to make products for export.

The United States and China are currently in talks to resolve trade issues after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on up to $150 billion worth of imports from China, prompting Beijing to retaliate.

At home, inflation has been trailing the central bank’s 2 percent target since last October, further dimming the prospects for interest rate increases in the coming months.

In April, the bank trimmed its 2018 inflation outlook to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent previously, but remained positive about the underpinnings of Korean growth.

The economy remains on track to grow 3 percent this year but Governor Lee Ju-yeol said last week difficult local job market conditions and escalating US-China trade friction cloud South Korea’s growth outlook.

Thursday’s interest rate decision was the first for new board member Lim Ji-won, formerly of JP Morgan, who joined the seven-member committee on May 17 for her four-year term.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI to keep policy rates unchanged in June, says Goldman Sachs

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Reserve Bank is likely to keep policy rates unchanged in the forthcoming monetary policy review, but will have a hawkish tone on concerns over inflation and as crude oil prices remain elevated, according to a report.

Retail inflation moved up to 4.58 percent in April from 4.28 per cent in March. It was at 2.99 percent in April last year.

The Reserve Bank will announce it’s second bi-monthly monetary policy on June 6.

“Although better activity data, higher inflation, and rising crude oil prices all point towards a more hawkish RBI and could warrant a policy rate hike, we think the RBI will await clarity on minimum support price (MSP) hikes for summer crops, monsoon out-turns, and more inflation data before embarking on a rate hiking cycle,” Goldman Sachs said in a report here today.

The probability of a June hike would increase if international oil prices rise further, or the rupee depreciates significantly ahead of the June meeting.

The report said the RBI will likely begin hiking policy rates in August this year.

The key downside surprise this year has been the developments in the banking sector (Punjab National Bank fraud, higher-than-expected haircuts on existing non-performing loans), which led us to reduce our FY19 real GDP growth forecast by 40 basis points earlier this year.

“We continue to think that the bank recapitalisation programme will help kick-start a powerful positive impulse between credit and investment growth, boosting overall activity growth in the second half of the fiscal year,” it said. The report said headline inflation has bottomed and will likely rise over the coming months.

Headline inflation had moderated to 4.3 per cent y-o-y in March 2018 from 5.2 percent in December 2017, leading the RBI to lower its headline inflation forecasts by 40-50 basis points at its April monetary policy meeting.

It forecasts FY19 headline CPI inflation to average 5.3 percent y-o-y.

“The recent spike in oil prices following the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal poses additional upside risks to our headline inflation forecasts,” the report said.

While fiscal slippage risks appear to be priced into bond and currency markets, higher oil prices are less factored in, it said.

The report sees FY19 current account deficit at 2.4 per cent of GDP, but expects the economy to be able to withstand external shocks better than it did in 2013 around the taper tantrum.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Retail inflation marginally up 4.58% in April

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate for April 2018 rose to 4.58% against March’s 4.28%, showed a data by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The retail inflation rate marginally up due to higher oil prices compared to previous month.

The CPI for the month of April 2018 rose to 137.10 points from 136.50 points in March 2018, the report said.

source: tradingeconomics.com

CPI inflation for the first half of 2018-19 was revised to between 4.7%-5.1%, and to 4.4% in the second half of the fiscal year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its first bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

WPI inflation accelerates to 3.18% in April

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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India’s annual wholesale price inflation accelerated in April, helped by higher fuel and food product prices, government data showed on Monday.

Annual wholesale price inflation last month rose to 3.18% from a year earlier as against the CNBC-TV18 poll of 2.92%. WPI inflation rose 2.47% in March.

Wholesale inflation in manufactured products rose 3.11% as against 3.03% from the month before while wholesale food prices in April rose 0.67% year-on-year, compared with a fall of 0.07% a month earlier, data showed.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Wholesale inflation was expected to harden on the back of seasonal uptick in food prices and rising core inflation.

Wholesale inflation in fuel and power rose sharply at 7.85% versus 4.70% on a month-on-month basis.

WPI for vegetables came in at a negative 0.89% as against 2.7% drop in the month before.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US consumer prices rise slightly; labor market tightening

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US consumer prices increased modestly in April, pointing to a steady buildup of inflation that will likely keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual monetary policy tightening.

Price pressures could soon get a boost from a tightening labor market. Other data on Thursday showed new applications for unemployment benefits holding near more than a 48-year low last week.

Inflation is flirting with the US central bank’s 2 percent target. Fed policymakers have in recent days signaled they would not be too concerned if inflation overshot the target, reiterating what the central bank said in its latest policy statement last week.

The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent as increases in the cost of gasoline and rental accommodation were tempered by a moderation in healthcare prices. The CPI had slipped 0.1 percent in March.

In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 2.5 percent, the biggest gain since February 2017, after rising 2.4 percent in the comparable period in March.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI edged up 0.1 percent after two straight monthly increases of 0.2 percent. The so-called core CPI rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in April, matching March’s increase.

Economists had forecast the CPI rebounding 0.3 percent in April and the core CPI climbing 0.2 percent.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, accelerated 1.9 percent year-on-year in March as last year’s big declines in the price of cell phone service plans dropped out of the calculation.

Economists expect the core PCE price index, which had increased 1.6 percent in February, to breach its target in May.

In their policy statement last week, Fed officials said they expected annual inflation to run close to the “symmetric” 2 percent target over the medium term. The central bank left interest rates unchanged last week.

The Fed hiked rates in March and has forecast at least two more increases for this year.

U.S. stock index futures added to gains after Thursday’s data and prices of U.S. Treasuries rose. The dollar added to losses against a basket of currencies.

GASOLINE PRICES RISING

Last month, gasoline prices rebounded 3.0 percent after tumbling 4.9 percent in March.

Further increases are likely after crude oil prices jumped to 3-1/2-year highs on Wednesday in the wake of President Donald Trump’s decision on Tuesday to pull the United States out of an international nuclear deal with Iran.

Food prices rose 0.3 percent last month, the largest increase in a year, after nudging up 0.1 percent in March. Food consumed at home increased 0.3 percent, the biggest gain since March 2017.

Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, rose 0.3 percent last month after a similar gain in March.

But healthcare costs nudged up 0.1 percent after advancing 0.4 percent in March, helping to restrain the increase in the core CPI. Prices for used cars and trucks tumbled 1.6 percent in April, the largest drop since March 2009.

The cost of recreation fell 0.4 percent last month, the biggest decline since December 2009. There were also decreases in the cost of airline tickets, new motor vehicles and communications. The cost of motor vehicle insurance fell for the first time in a year.

Apparel prices rose 0.3 percent in April after falling 0.6 percent in the prior month. Prices for household furniture increased 0.5 percent last month, the largest rise since April 2015.

In a second report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended May 5. Claims dropped to 209,000 during the week ended April 21, which was the lowest level since December 1969.

The labor market is considered to be near or at full employment, leading to a slowdown in job growth as employers struggle to find skilled workers. A government report on Tuesday showed job openings rising to a record 6.6 million in March.

Competition for workers is expected to push up wage growth, which has remained moderate.

Hiring slowed in March and April after surging in February. The unemployment rate dropped to near a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent in April from 4.1 percent in March. The jobless rate is within striking distance of the Fed’s forecast of 3.8 percent by the end of this year.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US producer prices rise marginally in April

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US producer prices barely rose in April after strong gains in the first quarter, held down by a moderation in the cost of both goods and services, which could ease fears that inflation pressures were rapidly building up.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index (PPI) for final demand edged up 0.1 percent last month after increasing 0.3 percent in March. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the PPI to 2.6 percent from 3.0 percent in March.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.2 percent last month and rising 2.8 percent from a year ago.

A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services also nudged up 0.1 percent last month. The so-called core PPI had increased by 0.4 percent in each of the past three months.

In the 12 months through April, the core PPI rose 2.5 percent after jumping 2.9 percent in March.

Last month’s slowdown in wholesale price growth is likely temporary as manufacturers have been reporting paying more for raw materials. Inflation is flirting with the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

The US central bank’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased 1.9 percent year-on-year in March and is expected to breach its target in the coming months. This comes as last year’s big declines in prices of cell phone service plans drop out of the calculation.

In April, the price of services ticked up 0.1 percent. That followed two straight monthly increases of 0.3 percent. Services were restrained by a 3.2 percent drop in the cost of hotel accommodation. The cost of healthcare services fell 0.2 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in March. Those costs feed into the core PCE price index.

Prices for goods were unchanged last month after rising 0.3 percent in March. Wholesale food prices declined 1.1 percent last month after surging 2.2 percent in March. Gasoline prices fell 0.4 percent in April after dropping 3.7 percent in the prior month.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, says inflation near target

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and expressed confidence that a recent rise in inflation to near the US central bank’s target would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in June.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee also downplayed a recent slowdown in economic and job growth, saying that activity had been expanding at a moderate rate and job gains, on average, had been strong in recent months.

In a statement following the end of a two-day policy meeting, the Fed said inflation had “moved close” to its target and that “on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2% objective over the medium term.”

The Fed’s decision to leave its benchmark overnight lending rate in a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% was unanimous. Investors had all but ruled out another increase at this week’s meeting. The Fed raised rates in March.

Stock markets and bond yields were largely unmoved by the decision.

“From our reading of the statement, it’s particularly bland. Their outlook is roughly balanced,” said John Canavan, market strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

The Fed’s overall confidence in the economic outlook was also highlighted by its assertion that business fixed investment had continued to grow strongly. It added that risks to the outlook appear roughly balanced, removing a previous reference to “near-term risks.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained that the central bank will pursue a middle-of-the-road approach to monetary policy, continuing to gradually lift rates in the face of a robust economy that had yet to spark a jump in inflation.

But data released on Monday showed that price gains are now effectively at the Fed’s 2% target after years of falling short of that mark.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation soared 1.9 percent in the 12 months through March, the biggest increase since February 2017, after increasing 1.6 percent in the year through February, the US Commerce Department reported.

Fed policymakers had anticipated the rise and have stressed that their target is not a ceiling.

Eyes on June Meeting

The central bank currently forecasts another two rate rises this year, although an increasing number of policymakers see three as possible. Investors overwhelmingly expect a rate hike at the Fed’s June 12-13 policy meeting.

The pace of rate increases has picked up since the central bank began its tightening cycle in December 2015. It raised rates once in 2016, but lifted borrowing costs three times last year amid a strengthening economy and labour market.

Although economic growth slowed to an annualised rate of 2.3% in the first quarter, a period that has tended to be weaker in recent years, and job gains cooled in March, a pickup is expected in the months ahead, fuelled in part by the Trump administration’s tax cuts and fiscal stimulus.

The economy is now in its second-longest expansion since World War Two. The unemployment rate is at a 17-year low of 4.1%, below the Fed’s longer-run estimate of what constitutes full employment, and there are signs wages are moving firmly higher after an extended period of sluggishness.

The Fed’s policy statement made no mention of the economic risks posed by mounting trade tensions between the United States and other nations, particularly China. Fed policymakers had flagged the potential negative impact of the conflict in recent public comments, but adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

US annual inflation measures jump

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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US consumer prices accelerated in the year to March, with a measure of underlying inflation surging to near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as last year’s weak readings dropped out of the calculation.

The rise in the annual inflation measures reported by the Commerce Department on Monday was anticipated by economists and Fed officials and is not expected to alter the US central bank’s gradual pace of interest rate increases.

Annual inflation readings in March of last year were held down by large declines in the price of cell phone service plans.

Consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index jumped 2.0% year-on-year last month. That was the biggest gain since February 2017 and followed a 1.7% rise in February.

The PCE price index was unchanged on a monthly basis after advancing 0.2% in February.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index soared 1.9% in the 12 months through March, the biggest increase since February 2017, after increasing 1.6% in February. The so-called core PCE price index rose 0.2 month-on-month in March after a similar gain in February.

The core PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Last month’s increase was in line with economists’ expectations.

Minutes of the Fed’s March 20–21 policy meeting published this month showed officials expected the annual PCE price indexes to accelerate in March partly because of “the arithmetic effect of the soft readings on inflation in early 2017 dropping out of the calculation.”

The minutes also noted that the rise in inflation emanating from the so-called base effects “by itself, would not justify a change in the projected path” for the central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate.

Fed officials are scheduled to convene on Tuesday and Wednesday for a regular policy meeting. The Fed raised rates last month and forecast at least two more rate hikes for this year.

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies after the data. US Treasury yields edged lower. US stock index futures were trading higher.

TIGHTENING LABOR MARKET

Away from the favorable base effects, inflation is rising thanks to a tightening labor market. The government reported last Friday that wages and salaries recorded their biggest increase in 11 years in the first quarter.

Inflation is also likely to be fanned by an anticipated pickup in economic growth, driven by a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending.

The Commerce Department’s report on Monday also showed consumer spending increased 0.4% in March after being unchanged in February. The data was included in last Friday’s advance first-quarter gross domestic product report.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, grew at a 1.1% annualized rate in the January-March period, the slowest pace in nearly five years, after surging at a 4.0% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the weakness in consumer spending, the economy grew at a 2.3% rate in the first quarter after expanding at a 2.9% pace in the final three months of 2017.

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.4% in March. The so-called real consumer spending fell 0.2% in February. The rebound in real consumer spending last month supports expectations that consumption was held back by temporary factors and will gain steam in the second quarter.

Consumer spending in March was lifted by a rise in purchases of long-lasting goods such as motor vehicles after two straight monthly declines. There were also increases in purchases of recreational goods.

Cooler temperatures in March boosted demand for heating, leading to a rise in household electricity and gas purchases.

Personal income rose 0.3% in March after increasing by the same margin in February. Wages gained 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.4% in the prior month.

With spending outpacing income, savings fell to $460.6 billion last month from $483.1 billion in February. The saving rate slipped to 3.1% from 3.3% in February.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Tame inflation keeps pressure on Bank of Japan to maintain stimulus

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Japan‘s headline inflation slowed in March from February, highlighting the central bank’s struggle to hit its 2 percent price growth target after five years of heavy stimulus, keeping it under pressure to maintain an ultra-easy monetary policy.

The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in March, matching economists’ median estimate, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications data showed on Friday.

It followed a 1.0 percent gain in February.

Analysts expect core consumer inflation to peak later this year as upward price pressure from energy and food is likely to moderate, and will raise more hurdles in the Bank of Japan‘s path to exiting easy monetary policy.

“We expect inflation excluding fresh food to average 1 percent in the current fiscal year, below the median forecast among BOJ board members of 1.4 percent,” said Marcel Thieliant, seniorJapan economist at Capital Economics.

“If we are right, the bank will have to reduce its inflation forecasts yet again over the coming months, underlining that policy tightening is a long way off.”

Sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking said it is likely to maintain the view that inflation will reach its 2 percent target next fiscal year, and will stay near that level the following year, when it issues new forecasts next week.

Those projections could increase the prospects of the BOJ deciding to debate whittling down its massive stimulus next fiscal year.

But a complete shift to monetary tightening is unlikely as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said inflation must exceed a stable 2 percent before the bank can trim its huge holdings of government bonds and exchange-traded funds.

Friday’s data showed the so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes fresh food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.5 percent in the year to March – flat from the previous month.

Japan‘s economy, the world’s third largest, expanded at an annualised 1.6 percent in October-December, posting its longest continuous expansion since the 1980s bubble economy, on the back of solid capital spending.

Japan‘s unemployment rate hovers near a 25-year low at 2.5 percent, which should encourage inflation by putting upward pressure on wages.

However, consumer prices have risen more slowly than the BOJ had hoped, as companies hold off on raising prices and wages, citing uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow