Tag: inflation

Citi forecasts India advantage, resilient global economy, and trims US rate cut predictions

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Citi anticipates a robust global economy and adjusts its earlier projection of three rate cuts for the US this year to one or two, citing disappointing inflation figures in the first quarter. Additionally, Citi highlights India’s advantageous position in rebalancing alongside China.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi, said that the geopolitical realities and the tensions between the United States and China are a major headwind to the Chinese economy going forward.

“So, looking at a 10-year trajectory and a 10-year horizon, I like the outlook for India a lot better than I liked the outlook for China,” he added.

Expanding on the topic of the US Federal Reserve rate cut, Sheets remarked that there has been a shift from considering the possibility of three cuts during the latter half of the year to a current debate centred more around the likelihood of one to two cuts. He said, “I am still hopeful that maybe we can get the 2 instead of the 1, but we have got to see better inflation performance than we saw during the first quarter. And the US Fed is going to have to keep rates where they are for a while longer.”

Also Read | US Federal Reserve holds steady on interest rates, signals potential future cuts

He remarked that sentiments among global investors regarding the Indian equity market are remarkably positive, noting it as the most optimistic he has witnessed throughout his career. Much of this positivity, he attributed, stems from concerns about the geopolitical dynamics between the United States and China. Many money managers and corporations, he observed, are contemplating diversification away from China, thus viewing India favourably as a beneficiary in this rebalancing process.

Also Read | Adani Enterprises remains a great way to play the India theme, says this foreign analyst

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Turkish inflation nears 70% with peak likely around corner

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Turkey’s inflation rate, already one of the world’s highest, accelerated for the sixth straight month, as government policies such as wage hikes counter aggressive interest-rate increases.

Consumer prices grew 69.8% from a year earlier, the fastest since late 2022 and up from 68.5% in March. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was just over 70%.

Monthly price growth, the central bank’s preferred gauge, was steady at 3.18%. Turkish monetary authorities have said that annual inflation probably won’t peak until this month, before slowing to 36% by the end of the year.

The central bank is likely months away from starting to cut borrowing costs. It’s lifted its key rate to 50% from 8.5% in June, marking a U-turn after several years of heeding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s calls for ultra-loose monetary policy.

“Inflation is below expectations and the lira is performing well,” said Onur Ilgen, head of Treasury at MUFG Bank Turkey AS. “I don’t think there is a need for an additional interest-rate hike with the continuation of the lira’s positive course.”

Also Read: Traders pull forward first full Fed rate cut to November ahead of jobs report

Governor Fatih Karahan pointed to lingering inflationary concerns, including in the services sector, when the central bank held rates last week.

The latest figures provided further evidence that price pressures remained elevated in April.

Services inflation quickened to an annual 97% from 96.5% in March, according to official data. Price gains in core consumer goods — an index that strips out the impact of volatile items such as food and energy — accelerated to 75.8% from 75.2%.

Investors are scrutinizing Turkey’s progress in slowing inflation so they can time a return to a country whose local bonds were once a magnet for foreign buyers. Inflows have been slow in recent months despite the high returns on offer.

Yet Wall Street banks such as Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. now recommend buying the lira. HSBC Holdings Plc has called Turkey “one of our favorite markets.”

Also Read: Indian government brainstorms creating an infrastructure ministry

A steadier currency could offer a possible respite from inflation by helping hold back the cost of imported goods. Having depreciated nearly 4% against the dollar in March, the lira was mostly flat last month. It’s down almost 9% in the year to date and trading around 32.4 versus the US currency.

The lira has lost almost 80% of its value since the start of 2021, a performance blamed by many economists and investors on the central bank’s dovish stance.

“We think encouraging policy signals will contain downward pressure on the lira,” Maya Senussi of Oxford Economics said in a report before the data release. “The risk of faster nominal depreciation is still substantial given the inflation outlook and upside risks from global rates, oil prices, and geopolitics.”

Worsening sentiment among households adds another complication. Turks see inflation at 96% at the end of the year, according to a survey by Koc University researchers and pollster Konda. That’s more than double the projection in a recent central bank poll of financial-market participants.

Monetary policy will remain tight until there’s “a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation,” the central bank has said. It’s signaled further rate rises are possible if it identifies “a significant and persistent deterioration” in the outlook for inflation.

Also Read: India’s services exports decline marginally in March to $30 billion

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

High demand for homes in India despite inflation, Ahmedabad leads in buying: Magicbricks

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Despite inflationary pressures, the Housing Sentiment Index (HSI) across India remains robust with strong buyer confidence, according to a report by Magicbricks, a real estate platform.

Based on preferences of over 4,500 customers across 11 cities, Magicbricks launched its flagship HSI — which reveals that the Indian residential real estate sector has an overall HSI of 149 .

Ahmedabad emerged as the frontrunner with the highest HSI of 163, closely followed by Kolkata (160), Gurugram (157), and Hyderabad (156), propelled by enhanced infrastructure and upcoming new real estate projects, the real estate platform said.

According to Sudhir Pai, CEO, Magicbricks, “The current scenario of India’s real estate sector reflects the most promising conditions witnessed in the past decade, instilling confidence among homebuyers and investors nationwide.”

The report also identified that mid-age professionals (24-35 years) demonstrated the highest HSI  of 154.

Further, consumers with annual income of ₹10-20 lakh displayed strongest aspirations for home buying, with HSI of 156.

Abhishek Bhadra, Head of Research, Magicbricks explained, “Our research indicates that homebuyers are demonstrating a notable willingness to invest up to four times their annual incomes. This outlook is supported by various factors, such as increasing incomes, consistent economic stability, and targeted government initiatives aimed at reinforcing the resilience of the real estate sector.”

The report also revealed that a majority of homebuyers intend to make a purchase within three years.

Additionally, the report said 54% of Indian buyers and more than 75% of female workforce prefer to invest in the stock market after real estate.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Standard Chartered expects US Fed rate cut in second half

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A decline in both growth and inflation in the US in the latter half of the year could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts, according to Rajat Bhattacharya, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered.

The US economy slowed sharply in the January-March quarter to a 1.6% annual pace in the face of high-interest rates, but consumers — the main driver of economic growth — kept spending at a solid pace.

US gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — decelerated in the January-March quarter from its brisk 3.4% growth rate in the final three months of 2023.

The Fed’s preferred inflation figure is due later today (April 26). Other gauges of price rises in the US remained hotter-than-expected, suggesting the timing of rate cuts may be pushed back.

Indian market, Bhattacharya says, has a unique organic domestic-led growth trajectory, distinct from global trends.

While India’s economic performance is influenced by trends in the US, its robust growth, strong corporate earnings, government expenditure, fiscal discipline, and political stability all play significant roles in enhancing its global standing.

“So, in absolute terms, we are bullish on India, and not just equities we are also bullish on government bonds,” Bhattacharya added.

Also Read | US inflation up again in March in latest sign that price pressures remain elevated

He also highlighted what makes the Indian market valuations explains.

India is still under owned by foreign investors and “as India’s exceptionalism comes through more and more in the coming quarters years. I think you will see more foreign participation in both equity and bond markets, which is what justifies this kind of PE (price to earnings) multiples,” he said.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

European Central Bank keeps interest rate unchanged at 4.5%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, April 11, kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight meeting, as was widely expected. With the ECB decision, the interest rate remains unchanged at 4.5%, indicating a continuation of the current monetary policy stance. Likewise, the ECB has left the deposit facility rate steady at 4% and the marginal lending rate at 4.75%.

#Breaking | European Central Bank (@ecb ) Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged At 4.5%

Here’s more 👇 pic.twitter.com/RqI21Eb7ML

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) April 11, 2024

However, the ECB signalled a potential future cut in the near future, particularly in its June meeting.

“…the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction,” it said in a statement.

That said, however, the decision may not be that easy amid persisting inflationary pressures in the US. The March figures, the third straight month of inflation readings well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, threaten to torpedo the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials have recently made clear that with the economy healthy, they’re in no rush to cut their benchmark rate despite their earlier projections that they would reduce rates three times this year.

The ECB and the developed world’s other central banks are tilting toward reducing interest rates that were imposed to tame inflation. The Swiss National Bank was the first major central bank to cut rates in the current cycle on March 21. The big exception is Japan, which raised rates for the first time in 17 years on March 19.

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Bankers and economists weigh in on RBI’s April monetary policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Leading bankers and economists shared their take on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) first monetary policy of the year, focusing on the central bank’s growth and inflation predictions, rate cut schedules, and how the US Federal Reserve’s actions might affect India’s interest rates.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left key rates unchanged for the seventh straight time while retaining the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance.

In his address, Governor Shaktikanta Das said that while inflation is moving closer to target, the last mile of inflation is turning out to be challenging.

As a result, the central bank has left the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) forecast unchanged at 4.5%.

According to Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank there are a fair amount of risks on the food inflation side and that is the reason there seems very limited room for RBI to act in the near term.

“So, they will be looking very cautiously at most of the inflation-linked data, and of course, the global cues and that is when they can consider a change but that doesn’t happen in the first half of the year (H1) at all,” Bhardwaj said.

For Kaushik Das, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, the tweaks in the central bank’s inflation forecasts came as a surprise.

The central bank has revised the inflation forecast downward to 4.9% from 5% despite the predictions of heatwaves across the country between April and June.

Similarly, for July-September, the forecast has been revised to 3.8% from 4%, and for January-March 2025, it is now at 4.5% versus 4.7%.

“If you are hawkish on inflation, then they should not have touched the inflation forecast as whatever was there was okay, and there was no need for tweaking at this point of time,” he added.

Also Read | RBI Monetary Policy 2024: Interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row

According to CS Setty, Managing Director of SBI said, while the policy was broadly on the expected lines, Governor Shaktikanta Das’ commentary on liquidity was reassuring.

“We could witness in the last few weeks that the liquidity is not constrained in the system and whenever liquidity is excess, the absorption was done and when the shortfall is noticed, the injection was done. So, to that extent, what the Governor has assured us in terms of being nimble and flexible is reassuring,” Setty said.

Also Read | MPC meeting: Real Estate stocks cheer RBI’s decision to keep repo rate unchanged

Shobhit Mehrothra, Head-Fixed Income at HDFC AMC sees the potential for a first rate cut by the RBI in August, well after the US Fed starts easing rates.

“If the Fed is going to perhaps start the easing cycle with the first-rate cut in June, I would guess that perhaps RBI could consider an August cut if inflation moves inline as per expectations in the next few prints.”

Also Read | RBI MPC leaves inflation projection for FY25 unchanged at 4.5%, assuming a normal monsoon

Sandeep Yadav, Head of Fixed Income, DSP Mutual Fund agrees with Mehrothra.

The RBI’s decision on when to cut interest rates for the first time will mostly depend on when the US Federal Reserve cuts rates for the first time.

It’s all about the data, whether it’s from India or the US, says Mehrothra.

Also Watch: Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive & Head-Treasury at Axis Bank; Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, Ashhish Vaidya, MD & Head of Treasury & Markets at DBS Bank India and Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, assessed and analyse the RBI Monetary Policy.

For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI holds repo rate at 6.5% for 7th consecutive time; home, auto EMIs to remain unchanged: TOP HIGHLIGHTS

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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RBI Monetary Policy 2024 HIGHLIGHTS: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee that met for its bi-annual meeting from April 3 to April 5 has decided to maintain key lending rates, withdrawal of accommodation stance and FY25 GDP growth projection, Governor Shaktikanta Das also cautioned banks, NBFCs and other financial entities to give highest priority to governance and adherence to regulatory guidelines. Track RBI Monetary Policy 2024 LIVE updates here

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

RBI Monetary Policy: 5 factors that could drive the central bank’s rate decision in April

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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A confluence of factors, ranging from inflation and economic growth trajectories to global macro environment, are poised to influence the repo rate decision of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its first meeting for the financial year 2025, set from April 3 to 5.

Here’s how experts believe these factors will play into the RBI’s policy decision:

Sustained economic growth

India’s economy is on an upswing, with growth forecasts for the last financial year (FY24) suggesting a robust performance ahead.

Sonal Varma, Managing Director and Chief Economist – India and Asia Ex-Japan at Nomura, told CNBC-TV18 that the economy is expected to exceed initial projections, possibly reaching an 8% growth rate.

Also Read | Experts anticipate RBI to keep interest rates unchanged in April

This optimistic outlook could prompt the RBI to adopt a cautious stance on rate adjustments to avoid overheating the economy.

India’s economy grew a stellar 8.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the fastest among major economies

Global macroeconomic conditions

The RBI’s policy decision is also likely to be influenced by global economic trends, particularly the stability of the US economy.

Jahangir Aziz, Global Head-EM Economics at JPMorgan, suggested that the RBI might hold off on any significant rate cuts until at least July, considering the global economic landscape.

The US Federal Reserve is currently expected to deliver its first cut in June, a Reuters poll in March showed. However, the risks are growing for the cut to happen later in the year.

While the Fed has indicated some rate cuts in the coming months, the RBI is expected to keep rates higher for longer.

JPMorgan predicts the first rate cut by RBI in July, and even that is unlikely to be a significant one, according to Aziz.

At its policy announcement on February 8, the MPC left the key repo rate—the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks—unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth straight time.

Inflation forecasts

Inflation control is a perennial goal for the RBI, and current projections indicate a manageable scenario.

Inflation, at 5.09% in February, is expected to decline to 4.00% in the third quarter before rising, a separate Reuters poll showed. Price rises are expected to average 4.60% in the current fiscal year.

With inflation likely to stay within the 2%–6% target, the central bank may find some leeway in maintaining or subtly adjusting interest rates to support economic growth while keeping prices in check.

Monsoon predictions

The agricultural sector’s outlook, which is heavily dependent on monsoon patterns, also bears significance for the RBI’s policy framework.

A forecasted normal monsoon season, as predicted by Skymet, suggests that agricultural production could remain stable, thereby controlling food inflation and supporting rural income.

“There is a better chance of a normal and above normal…there is a very low chance of a below normal or drought this year,” Jatin Singh, the Founder and CEO of Skymetweather.com told CNBC-TV18.

Also Read | Skymet forecasts normal monsoon in 2024 with minimal El Nino impact

A normal monsoon is crucial for the RBI, as it directly impacts inflation and growth rates.

Crude oil prices

Lastly, the volatile nature of crude oil prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, presents an external challenge for India’s economy.

With crude oil prices expected to remain elevated, the RBI will need to account for the impact of higher energy costs on inflation and the current account deficit.

Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, “Brent oil futures should track closer to $75 to $80 a barrel in coming months given our view that China’s oil demand growth will disappoint.”

Also Read | Oil rises with lower US stockpiles and OPEC meeting to the fore

This external factor could influence the RBI’s stance to mitigate any inflationary pressures arising from costly imports.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Peter Cardillo of Spartan Cap explains why the US Fed might lower interest rates twice this year

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Contrary to market expectations of three rate reductions totalling 75 basis points, Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, predicts the Fed opting for two cuts, with an initial cut of 50 basis points, followed by another 25 basis point reduction this year.

“This would be a scenario if inflation remains elevated and the US Fed decides not to cut in June, then that means that in September, they could cut by 50 basis points, and then 25 just before year-end, and that would make up the 75-basis point that the market is talking about,” Cardillo told CNBC-TV18.

On March 20, the US central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%.

Despite this, it still anticipates three rate cuts in 2024.

The Fed has also revised its forecast for the 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.1% from 1.4%.

They predict that “core” inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, will reach 2.6% by the end of 2024, up from their previous estimate of 2.4%.

In January, core inflation stood at 2.8%, according to the Fed’s preferred measure.

Also Read | US Fed holds rates steady, foresees 3 rate cuts this year

Among other countries, Cardillo is bullish on India as he expects the economy to keep performing strongly. .

“It (India) is catching up to China and, maybe, it might surpass China over the next year or two. And if that happens, it becomes a powerhouse,” he said.

Also Read | Experts anticipate RBI to keep interest rates unchanged in April

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Why Standard Chartered Wealth prefers large caps in India

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Standard Chartered Wealth Management has a buy recommendation on India as it believes India’s positive story will continue.

Steve Brice, Chief Investment Officer, said the investment firm favours large-cap stocks in India over small-cap and mid-cap at the moment.

The preference for large caps even though it is slightly expensive is because it is not at a cyclical peak, unlike near peak valuations in the small-cap and mid-cap space, he said.

Also, earnings are more resilient in the large cap space.

Another favourite for Standard Chartered Wealth in Asia, ex-Japan, is Korea.

“We also like Korea. So, Korea is quite a cheap area, but very close to the semiconductor story,” he noted.

Among other emerging markets, he expects another 10% upside in China in the short term.

Also Read | Stocks flat, oil climbs as dollar cornered by yen and yuan

He is overweight on Japan as well.

“I think the key story here is that Japanese investors focusing more on the domestic equity market story, and we’re seeing signs of that to some degree. But that’s the real deal. If we start seeing flows from bonds in Japan into Japanese equities, then I think the authorities have achieved a big victory.”

For more, watch the accompanying video

The US, he said, continues to remain one of their favourite markets and it has outperformed so far this year.

Given the US market’s sensitivity to tech and communication services, which are more resilient to any slowdown and growth. and benefit more from lower interest rates, the US should continue to do well in the coming months, he said.

Brice believes that if the market sees further upward inflation surprises, then that would discourage the US Federal Reserve from easing policies.

US Federal Reserve’s Governor Christopher Waller, in a recent speech at the Economic Club of New York, said that there is no rush to cut the policy rate. However, he noted that rate cuts are not off the table; perhaps it will take place sometime this year.

Commenting on next action anticipated from the US Fed, Brice said, “We had been sort of thinking that maybe the Fed might scale back a little bit on its rate cut trajectory, maybe to two rate cuts rather than three. But they doubled down on that. So these comments sort of almost go back to where we thought we might be. So it is something to watch out for.”

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3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow