Tag: Indian Foreign Policy

View: India-Turkey ties and the need for a calculated outreach

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Overlooking the mistrust especially when the writing on the wall is yet to fade, is a difficult proposition. But then the rooting principle of international discourse and diplomacy is that there are no permanent friends or enemies but only national interests. This also implies that having a transactional exchange, to begin with is desirable to break the ice for good before we move to a higher orbit in the collaborative matrix. This is also evident in the recent highest-level interactions among Indian and Turkish leaders.

Recently, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit at Uzbekistan capital Samarkand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met followed by a meeting between Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and his Turkish counterpart on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which is indicative of a conscious effort on both sides to mend the fences and move forward.

PM Modi had visited Turkey to attend the G20 Summit and next year we expect President Erdogan to be in India for the next G20 Summit. Ankara is expanding its footprints in the Eurasian region and is keen for full membership of the SCO as well as be part of the BRICS in addition to NATO which might give it additional leverage across in balancing the geo-political spectrum.

While there is a great potential and perceived commonality of approaches and scope for mutually beneficial objectives and enterprise between the two countries, the relationship has been marred by the ‘Pak factor’ for decades, especially in the context of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

Moreover, Ankara has been overlooking the Pakistani complicity with extremist groups in cross-border terrorism against India. It has not only raked up the misplaced reference to J&K at the international fora like the UNGA and OIC etc. to please its friend — but condoning terrorism smacks of complicity as the ‘ironclad friends’ do exactly what they should not be doing. They need not forget that extremism and terrorism will bounce back at them too be it in the alleged Kurdish revolt or for the Chinese in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs.

There is no disjunct because terror and extremist groups are well-oiled syndicates operating across geographies and are adept at exploiting societal fissures to their advantage. The recent crackdown on the Popular Front of India (PFI) — a terror group in India also points in the direction and complicity of various countries in the middle east several of whom have closer strategic relations with India.

It was expected that after the Samarkand meeting between the two Principals, President Erdogan may refrain from his rhetoric on Kashmir at UNGA. But the old habits die hard. He could not resist the temptation even if mildly put compared to the previous times when New Delhi condemned and dismissed them or was perturbed.

Erdogan seemingly wanted to be the paragon of peace, despite militarising his own foreign policy from Syria to Libya to Nagorno Karabakh to the Mediterranean, when he uttered “India and Pakistan, after having established their sovereignty and independence 75 years ago, they still haven’t established peace and solidarity between one another. This is much unfortunate. We hope and pray that a fair and permanent peace and prosperity will be established in Kashmir,”.

If they were really interested in peace they could have prevailed upon Islamabad to desist from the affliction of a destructive syndrome. Of course, his penchant for Islamic leadership and Ummah often plays truant to the hidden agenda. India dismissed Erdogan’s comment stating ‘Reference to Kashmir by other countries in UNGA doesn’t matter’.

A nuanced change is visible on both sides. Many would argue that the two should move through a bilateral track but foreign policy is a holistic and serious business. More meet needs to be put in the Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and India-Turkey Policy Planning Dialogue so that the threshold from tolerance to trust can be abridged.

But then India today is quick and agile to furnish a ‘tit for tat’ in the spirit of reciprocity and disdain. During his meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister, Dr S Jaishankar also raised the issue of Cyprus (festering since 1974) to be resolved in accordance with UNSC Resolutions.

Jaishankar tweeted “Met FM @MevlutCavusoglu of Turkiye on side-lines of #UNGA. Wide ranging conversation that covered the Ukraine conflict, food security, G20 processes, global order, NAM and Cyprus”. India has also enhanced its strategic outreach to Greece and Egypt and the I2-U2 group as well as other East Mediterranean powers including enhanced defence collaboration with them.

Ankara needs to understand the economic imperative of the bilateral relationship and the historical connection between P2P and Bollywood and Turkish serials bonhomie, Sufi affection and support during the Khilafat movement if nothing else. These are the edifice on which the mutually beneficial relationship across the spectrum can be reconstructed. However, If the needling is the game so be it.

But it has been observed of late that Turkey has emerged as a major mediator in several conflict zones including the Russia-Ukraine War and even in the exercise of its ambitious and somewhat independent “Blue Home Land” foreign policy, Ankara has begun to tweak it a little bit as it has embarked on a rapprochement spree with its erstwhile rivals and competitors in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt as well as Israel even if driven by its economic compulsions.

India is already strategic friends with them hence Ankara’s continued undermining the interests of a potentially beneficial relationship with New Delhi, is illogical to say the least. Apparently, Turkey has been supportive of India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and MTCR regimes while having an ambivalent stand on India’s claim to a seat on UNSC’s Horseshoe Table. Good beginnings could hopefully lead to some positive outcomes.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Colombo Port City: A Chinese White Elephant as Sri Lanka desperately seeks India’s help to tide over economic crisis

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Sri Lanka, the maritime hub in the Indian Ocean, is feeling rudderless at the moment due to a critical economic crisis. The double whammy of inflation and the crushing burden of foreign debt is leading to resentment among the public that is spilling out on the streets with chants of ‘Go Home Gotabaya’.

An opposition-led rally two weeks ago saw a huge turnout. Even youngsters were seen participating with posters voicing their anger against the Rajapaksa family. One poster said “no family should have this much power”.

This unfolded as Sri Lankan Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa was making his second visit to India in less than four months, seeking a $1 billion line of credit. After granting the economic lifeline, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is now travelling to Colombo both for bilateral meetings and to participate in the BIMSTEC ministerial meeting ahead of the BIMSTEC summit on March 30.

The repeated visits of Basil Rajapaksa earlier were meant to seek financial help from India. However, this time the need was even more pressing with Sri Lanka too strapped to even afford essentials like food items. Last week, the price of milk powder for a 400 gm pack was hiked in one go by 250 Sri Lankan rupees.

However, Sri Lanka’s larger economic problems have been in the making. And the debt trap is largely blamed on the Rajapakas and their proximity to China. From Hambantota to now the proposed Port City of Colombo, the Chinese footprint is all over.

The Chinese Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) has created a piece of land from the Indian Ocean for Sri Lanka just south of the Colombo port. A 269 hectares of land has been reclaimed but what next? Sri Lanka is desperately seeking investors to build the critical infrastructure needed to make it a multi-services hub in Asia much on the lines of Dubai or Singapore. However, the Port City Commission hesitates from drawing that parallel.

ALSO READ | Explained: Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown; is it really a Chinese ‘debt trap’ & how India is helping

Saliya Wickramsuriya, spokesperson, Port City Colombo Economic Commission, Government of Sri Lanka, says that more than tax holidays, they want to use Sri Lanka’s strategic location as a transit between Asia and the West as a unique selling proposition.

It is here that the desire that Sri Lanka is seeking Indian investors becomes very clear. The Commission argues that since 70 percent of the trans-shipment business on the Colombo port is India’s, investing in the Port City Colombo project will be advantageous to the neighbour.

However, India had a bitter experience with Sri Lanka not too long ago. In early 2021, Sri Lanka unilaterally dissolved a deal between itself, India and Japan. The speculation was that it was done at China’s behest. Later, after much protest, West Container Terminal now has Indian investment. However, while the East Container Terminal was a government to government deal, the West Terminal has commercial investments from private players. The Indian and Japanese governments were extremely upset at the turn of events only last year.

Despite the turbulence in relations due to the container terminals, the Sri Lankan side is pushing for more Indian investment now for the ambitious Port City Colombo which at the moment is like a white elephant for the Sri Lankans.

The Port City Commission claims there is no Chinese control over the projects. Wickarsuriya also adds, “The Chinese company has taken all the risk. The government of Sri Lanka has nothing to lose with the failure of the project, on the other hand it has a lot to gain from its success and so do the others. That’s what we are hoping we can convince the investors from India about.”

However, out of the 269 hectares of land, 43 percent or 116 hectares has been leased to CHEC, which is a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned Chinese Communication and Construction Company (CCCC).

On the ground as well, the Chinese involvement is ubiquitous. Photos of Chinese President Xi Jinping with Sri Lankan Prime Minister and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa find a prominent place as you enter the auditorium that runs a promotional film of the model port city.

The model presents a futuristic picture of what Sri Lanka wants the port city to be like. Yamuna Jayaratne, Director, Sales and Marketing, Port City Colombo says, “On the long term, to realise the full vision and for it to reach its maturity, it will take about 20 years as per our estimate.”

Right now, a high-end, but only a small portion called the Marina has been sold, but the rest of the plan needs massive investment for building the infrastructure on the reclaimed land.

The opposition in Sri Lanka has been sceptical of the project due to an Act that gives the Commission a free hand to develop the project. Some believe the Port City would turn into a province of China as it has its own jurisdiction too. The general public is increasingly viewing such projects as wasteful when the country is struggling with basics like food and electricity.

The project also ran into rough waters with environmentalists and fishing communities. Twenty cases against the project had reached the Supreme Court. The project was finally given a go-ahead after a 30-member committee gave a green signal but with 72 conditions.

The Commission says they have done a thorough impact assessment and cost-benefit analysis. WADD Wijesooriya, Head of Environmental Management, Port City Colombo cites examples from the Netherlands to Dubai to Changi Airport to say land reclamation is not a new concept. He explains that the concerns regarding coastal erosion and the fear that the north and south of Colombo will be washed away due to reclamation work have also been addressed.

The land reclamation has been done in record time of 30 months by China, but now the process has slackened due to lack of investors. Sri Lanka hopes that India, which does a bulk of its shipment through this route, will find value in investing.

They also say that inquiries have been made by the US and German embassies about the Port City Project. They claim the project doesn’t fall under China’s contentious Belt and Road Initiative, but the overt involvement of China in Sri Lanka under the Rajapaksas’ remains a hurdle that the island nation well realises.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

View | Why India’s pragmatic approach to the Russia-Ukraine war makes sense

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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In 1888, Otto Von Bismarck said that a European war would “start with some damn foolish thing in the Balkans”.

On June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austria-Hungary Empire was assassinated by a Bosnian Serb. The catastrophic chain of events unleashed by this event led to the First World War. What could have been a contained, punitive expedition by Austria-Hungary forces against Serbia soon engulfed the world. Why? At the risk of oversimplification, Serbia found itself wedged between several great powers, each willing to go to war to prevent any disruption to the status quo in its rivals’ favour.

As an amateur student of the conflicts, battles, and wars that dot the pages of world history, I have been closely following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A pattern reminiscent of the events that led up to WW1 is clearly visible, although with many Balkan states now part of the NATO, the battleground has shifted to Ukraine.

The seeds of the current Ukraine-Russia conflict were sown in 1991 when the former declared independence from the USSR. In 2005, pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich was elected as president but amidst vote-rigging allegations and massive protests, had to step down in favour of Viktor Yushchenko, who promised to take the country away from Russian influence and towards NATO and EU.

Perhaps belatedly realising the sheer enormity of the task he had set for himself — Russia and Ukraine have a shared and closely intertwined cultural, linguistic, and historical heritage — Yanukovich changed his stance around the turn of the last decade and became pro-Kremlin, an about-face that was not appreciated by Ukrainians, leading to the Euromaidan protests and his subsequent ouster from office. Fast forward to 2019 and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the current Ukrainian president who is in news for rallying his troops against the invasion from the frontlines, took office and initiated Ukraine’s shift to the West again, a shift that among other factors has led to Russia’s invasion.

Where does India stand?

The point of the above historical soliloquy was to highlight the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war is, to put it simply, complicated. There are a lot of factors involved and while the West is unequivocally condemning Russia for triggering the war, the EU and NATO have vested interests in ensuring the continuity of a friendly regime in Ukraine: The alternative is to share borders with a nuclear-armed Russia, a prospect that the latter does not relish either.

As a country that is close to Washington, and has a long history of friendship and cooperation with Russia, India finds itself in a unique position. There have been a lot of calls, both internally and externally, for India to step up as an emerging global superpower and all-out Russia’s aggression. After all, invading a neighboring country in the guise of preventing genocide simply because it is drifting away is against accepted international norms, akin to a school bully punching a weaker kid because they made friends with someone else.

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India has taken a very pragmatic approach to the entire situation. Indian diplomats have time and again stressed the need for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine in different forums including the UN, however, India has also been careful to avoid any direct criticism of Russia, and has abstained itself from resolutions condemning Russian aggression in both, the United Nations Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly.

The three key arguments in favour of India’s pragmatic approach — that leans towards Russia, without outrightly alienating the western powers — include:

India and Russia share a time-tested strategic partnership

The coming April will mark the 75th anniversary of the Indo-Russian diplomatic relations, a relationship that covers areas spanning politics, security, trade and economy, defence, science and technology, and culture. Russia calls India a special and privileged strategic partner and has suited actions to words many times. For instance, it used its veto power (as Russia/Soviet Union) 6 times to block UN resolutions against India, including during our war against Portugal’s presence on the subcontinent (A NATO member, during Goa liberation), and thrice in 1957, 1962 and 1971 to block resolutions that sought UN intervention to resolve the Indo-Pak Kashmir conflict.

Defence deals with Russia form the core of Indian military capabilities

Surrounded on two sides by what can at best be called unfriendly neighbours, maintaining its military might is a pressing concern for India. Today, over 70 percent of our military armaments are of Russian or Soviet origin. Whether it is our main battle tank force (Russian T-72M1 and T-90S tanks), our lone operational aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (refurbished Soviet ship), our sole nuclear-powered submarine (on lease from Russia), or even our Air Force, with its backbone of Mig-21 and Su-30MKI jets, India has an overwhelming dependency on Russian-made military systems.

In recent years, India has diversified its arms exports to other countries such as Israel and France and started manufacturing weapons in the country, however, Russia remains a key military ally and supplier to India. In December last year, the two countries signed a contract (off-shelf procurement + a joint venture to manufacture the bulk of the weapons in Amethi, India) for 670,000 AK-203 Kalashnikov assault rifles that will replace the in-service INSAS rifle.

India’s rise to superpower status needs a multipolar world

Between the collapse of the Soviet Union and its own rapid rise across economic, military, and political spheres, China has been on the ascendant as a counterweight to global American hegemony. However, if world history and the cold war era are anything to go by, a bipolar world is not a good idea on a planet with nuclear-armed countries.

As one of the other great regional powers, India can help create a powerful third axis. It is a role it has played during the US-Soviet rivalry, albeit from a position of lesser strength. Considering China’s often cavalier and belligerent attitude towards its neighbours including India, we need allies like Russia that have publicly supported and spoken in favour of India’s role in a multipolar world.

As arguably the single greatest power in Asia, China could also stand to gain by simply rushing in to fill any vacuums in the current power dynamic created if Russia loses its stature and influence. India can also ill-afford a situation where Russia jumps into a closer partnership with China, an alliance that could come easily considering how both Russia and China are antagonistic towards the US — albeit to varying degrees — and could very well exclude India, thanks to our history with China.

ALSO READ | Russia-Ukraine war: Experts say India should divert some oil, defence trade away from Russia

A fine balance, for now

While Russia seems content with India staying away from open criticism, Western powers have expressed disappointment with India’s limited response. President Biden had earlier referred to “unresolved consultations” with India on the Ukraine War. More recently, speaking to Senators, top U.S. diplomat Donald Lu said that no efforts had been spared to persuade India to vote against Russia in response to the resolutions tabled in the UN.

However, on being asked whether India’s non-alignment with the US on the Ukraine issue and its purchase of the S-400 systems from Russia could attract repercussions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), he was also quick to add that “…… India is a really important security partner of ours now and that we value moving forward that partnership.”

At present, neither of the sides need India’s voice on their side badly enough to try any drastic measures or strong statements that could have the reverse effect and push the rising Asian power in the arms of the opposite camp.

So far, the Indian diplomatic engine has done a good job of walking a delicate line between the Russian and the Euro-American blocs over the Ukraine conflict. Whether we can continue along this path while continuing to urge a resolution to this war through dialogue will depend on a constantly shifting spectrum of international factors and new developments on the war front, including how long it drags on for without a definitive victory for either side.

For now, a pragmatic approach avoiding an irrevocable and permanent alignment to either of the sides appears to be the best course forward for India, which it should be remembered, was also one of the founding signatories of the global non-aligned movement.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Antony Blinken’s visit and the US factor in Indian foreign policy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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India’s ties with the US have always stood out for the sheer hyperbole they tend to generate in public discourse. For years, even as China continued to change the strategic environment around India to New Delhi’s disadvantage, our favorite pastime was to talk about the various versions of non-alignment. We pretended that if we remained equidistant between Beijing and Washington, we would be able to keep China in good humor. In summit after summit with our Chinese ‘friends’ we railed against American imperialism and unipolarity. Even after China had made a mockery of our trust as far back as 1962, the Indian strategic community’s favorite refrain remained: Can the US be trusted?

Despite the Trump Administration being largely good for India, many in India disliked Donald Trump for his ideological proclivities. And when the Biden Administration arrived on the scene, many had hoped that it would downgrade ties with India because of its focus on human rights. In an ironical twist, those who had long demanded that America not involve itself in India’s domestic matters wanted Joe Biden to take the Modi government to task. Much to their dismay, we have seen India-US relations achieving even greater heights in a relatively short period of time.

The Biden Administration has continued with its predecessors’ tough approach towards China and in fact, has ratcheted it up in certain domains. With months of entering the White House, Biden called the virtual summit of the Quad leaders, thereby galvanizing a platform that had been looking for a sense of direction. The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited India as part of his first overseas tour followed by the visit of the Indian External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar to the US. And this week India hosted the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, who hailed the India-US relationship as one of the “most consequential” in the world.

This relationship has become consequential not only because of the most significant challenge both nations face with the rise of a power like China but also because of the strategic choices the two nations are willing to make to manage this rise and its attendant consequences. Where New Delhi was lackadaisical in its outreach to the US and Washington had little time for India in the past, today the enormity of their common challenge has opened up new opportunities for strategic collaboration. Earlier this week in a first for a member of the Biden Administration, the US Secretary of Defense mentioned Chinese aggression against India in the same breath as its maritime exploits in Southeast Asia, underlining a new realisation in Washington that India needs a closer integration along with its traditional partners.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—the Quad—has benefited from this convergence, giving a new lease of life to an idea that had dies a premature death in 2007. Today, the new found commitment to expand the Quad partnership, with Australia and Japan, is reflective of a new mindset in Washington and New Delhi that is seeking an expansive engagement on areas as wide-ranging as infrastructure development, vaccine development and distribution, maritime security, and climate change. Blinken’s visit saw a particular focus on expanding vaccine production to make it globally affordable and accessible even as the US announced an additional $25 million funding for India’s vaccine programme.

From India’s perspective, it was Afghanistan that was on the top of the agenda given its immediate ramifications in the context of an accelerated departure of American forces from the war-torn nation. The Taliban has been making rapid gains in recent months with its traditional brutality write large. New Delhi’s concerns revolve around the possibility of Afghanistan once again becoming a safe haven for extremists after the full military takeover by the Taliban. There have been apprehensions that the US has failed to take New Delhi’s views into account as it plans a post-withdrawal strategy with another Quad that includes Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan.

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During his visit, Blinken and Jaishankar emphasised their common outlook on the need for a political resolution in Afghanistan and the US offering an assurance that it would remain “very much engaged in Afghanistan.” That the US remains keen on Indian involvement was underscored by Blinken’s comment that “as a credible partner in the region, India has and will continue to make vital contribution to Afghanistan’s stability and development.”

The issue of democracy and human rights also appeared but not in the way many had hoped. Blinken commended India’s democracy as the “largest expression of free political will” anywhere in the world and acknowledged the challenges that all democracies face by suggesting that the US recognizes “that every democracy, starting with our own, is a work in progress.” Washington is right to view “Indian democracy as a force for good in defense of a free and open Indo-Pacific” and New Delhi is right in insisting it is justifiably proud of its democratic traditions and no longer reticent about engaging the US on the subject.

If India could build ties with the US when New Delhi was politically dysfunctional and economically weak, there is no reason why it should be constrained in giving this relationship a new momentum when it more self-confident than ever and there is broader structural convergence. As Blinken himself articulated cogently, “There is greater imperative than ever on cooperation, coordination, collaboration among countries, especially among countries who share basic perspectives, basic values, and basic interests. And that is certainly the case with the United States and India.”

Blinken’s visit has once again underscored that when it comes to India-US relations today, every challenge is an opportunity. And, more importantly, New Delhi and Washington seem determined to make the most of these opportunities.

— Professor Harsh V Pant is Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi and Professor of International Relations at King’s College, London. The views expressed in the article are his own

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

As global power shifts, the G-7 beckons for India

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Just last year, then US President Donald Trump had described the G-7 that includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK along with the US, as “a very outdated group of countries” not properly representing “what’s going on in the world.” This year it’s a different story with US President Joe Biden trying to put his own stamp on global politics using the G-7 as the launchpad of his diplomatic outreach. He is intent on underscoring during his first overseas trip as president that “the United States is back and democracies of the world are standing together to tackle the toughest challenges and the issues that matter most to our future.”

At the bilateral level with the UK, Biden and the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be aiming to revitalise their relationship, after the turbulence of the Trump years and the post-Brexit adjustment. In an attempt to refresh their so-called “special relationship,” the two leaders have signed a new updated version of the Atlantic Charter, pledging to work together to solve global challenges and enhancing cooperation in areas as wide-ranging as defending democracy, reaffirming the importance of collective security, and building a fair and sustainable global trading system. There are differences between the two sides on trade across the Irish Sea where Washington has repeatedly underlined that the UK-EU row over the Northern Ireland Protocol should not be allowed to imperil the stability provided by the Good Friday Agreement.

For Biden, it’s a packed agenda during his eight-day trip that will see him meeting the Queen at Windsor Castle, the 12th serving US president the Queen will be hosting as monarch, attending G7 leaders’ meeting, participating in his first NATO summit as president and finally coming face to face with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. The last one, perhaps, will be most contentious and will be watched by many around the world.

The G-7 summit meeting under the UK Presidency is focused on certain key themes—leading the global recovery from coronavirus while strengthening resilience against future pandemics; promoting future prosperity by championing free and fair trade; tackling climate change and preserving the planet’s biodiversity; and championing shared values and open societies. But it is likely that recovery from COVID-19 will be front and centre. Boris Johnson has ambitiously articulated that the G7 would “begin the framing of a new global treaty on pandemic preparedness so the world is never caught out in the same way again.”

In this context, the G-7 is expected to call for greater global coordination to help vaccinate the world. Arguing that US values “call on us to do everything we can to vaccinate the world against COVID-19,” the Biden administration has already announced the US will donate half a billion coronavirus vaccine doses to over 90 of the world’s poorest countries. This is to be welcomed but the scale of the global crisis is enormous and other major powers will have to pitch in a major way given the aim of distributing 1.8 billion doses of vaccines globally by early next year.

While the G-7 is made up of the seven of the world’s largest economies, they have been bound together by a shared sense of values such as democracy, human rights and sustainable development. As geopolitical tensions sharpen among major powers around the world, there is an attempt to redefine the purpose of the G-7. The UK has invited India, along with Australia, the Republic of Korea and South Africa, as guest countries for the G7 Summit in an attempt to underscore the need for like-minded nations, in particular democracies, to come together to manage global governance more effectively. The advanced industrial nations are recognising the need to expand their ambit if the geopolitical and geoeconomic challenge from a rising China is to be effectively tackled. And India has emerged as a major partner in that endeavour.

This will be the second time Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be participating in a G7 meeting since 2014. Last year too Donald Trump wanted to invite Modi but that couldn’t happen due to the pandemic in the US. Though Modi was to go in person this year, due to the pandemic situation in India he will be participating virtually in the outreach sessions. India’s consistent engagement with the G-7 over the last several years adds another layer to its already growing engagement with the West as it seeks to build partnerships with countries that are willing to enhance its capabilities and its leverage in global governance. India is more at ease in dealing with the West today than it has ever been in its post-independence history.

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From India’s engagement with its Quad partners in the Indo-Pacific to its burgeoning ties with the West, we are witnessing unprecedented activism in the Indian foreign policy posture that tells a story about India’s rise that is quite distinct from the doom and gloom often portrayed in the Indian domestic landscape. As India engages the world more confidently, the world is reaching out to India more substantively as well. India’s presence at the G-7 is a tribute to the inherent strength of the country that should not be underestimated despite the occasional challenges that the nation may face.

— Professor Harsh V Pant is Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi and Professor of International Relations at King’s College, London. The views expressed in the article are his own

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Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

The difficulty of being a rising power

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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There is no dearth of discourse explaining the strategic complications posed by an ‘emerging power’ towards the international system. But hardly any attention is paid to comprehend the challenges posed by the existing major powers towards an ‘emerging power’ who is assumed potential to stumble the global power balance in vogue. Even, not many instances available on a new power being co-opted in the existing global power hierarchy enthusiastically.

Systemic constraints are often conspired by status quo powers to ensure the global balance of power in their favor remains unaltered. Rising powers, therefore, often face the condition of ‘status immobility’ in international politics. The history of the Cold War is the history of collusions between the two superpowers who contested with each other to be the number one power and dominate the entire globe.

In the post-Cold War period, though the global power hierarchy has been reshuffled and China, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, has automatically moved up in the hierarchy, it is at loggerheads with the United States who is now posited at the top. Similar would be the situation in the case of China and India, at least in the Asian strategic theatre, in recent times.

During the last few decades, it is speculated that India’s time has come, and the Indian public is euphoric that their country is poised to become a global power. Indian political leaders often bloviate that India is destined to acquire its rightful place in the committee of nations for its age-old civilisation, geo-strategic location, huge labor force, fourth largest military, and formidable consumer market. Rightly so, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had urged the Heads of Indian Missions “to use this unique opportunity to help India position itself in a leading role, rather than just a balancing force, globally.”

Believe it or not, many have gone to the extent of visualising India becoming a true pole by 2050, along with other principal entities (China, the United States, the European Union) dominating the international system. Arvind Virmani foresees India as a pole in the tripolar world consisting of China and the USA as the other two poles by the middle of this century. Meanwhile, many are also pessimistic about India’s prospects of becoming a global power, even though it is staggering forward, for the economic downturn which is understandable. There are undoubtedly compelling and logical reasons why India is not a great power yet.

But very few are bothered, or ready, to comprehend how global powers of top echelons can resist the entry, or emergence, of a new power that might upset their superiority. Many nations simply cannot tolerate the emergence of their peer as a new global player, therefore join hands with the conspirators to exploit the domestic faultlines, target economic-industrial activities, blacken reform initiatives, and defame Indian industrial houses at the global level—largely to derail and distress its growth trajectory. Overconfidence in India’s rising global profile seems to blind many who lash out at political leaders’ apprehension on the hatching of a global conspiracy to destabilise India.

For long, neighbors like China and Pakistan have fantasised disintegration of India and have strategic nexus vis-à-vis India. No sensible Indian can overlook former Pakistani Dictator General Zia-ul-Haq’s promise to “bleed India with a thousand cuts”, and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s vow to raise a long war to break India and takeout Kashmir. In 2018, Maulana Bashir Ahmad Khaki, a senior functionary of Jamaat-ud-Dawa—a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)—has threatened that “India and Israel will get disintegrated as more and more martyrs will be produced”. Furthermore, a decade ago, a Chinese strategist was noticed suggesting China to facilitate ‘the disintegration of India’ into some 30 smaller states, so as to decimate all challenges to its supremacy and establish a pax-Sinica in the Asia-Pacific region.

Such allegations of conspiracy against India is nothing new. In the early sixties, the US-based scholar, Selig S Harrison had also declared that India would fall apart into ‘12 states’. Wild allegations by Indians against the combination of Christianity and Zionism for trying to destroy the world in general, and Hinduism in particular, were made during the 1970s when many overseas Indians were unlawfully thrown out by the rulers of Fiji, Uganda, Kenya and Burma.

Whatever may be the truth, such polemics do provide glimpses of the fantasies by India’s enemies, even though they are incapable of breaking India’s civilisational fabric at any cost. But they are undoubtedly capable of damaging India, and they would prefer a weaker India in the global sphere. But one may wonder how India’s emergence would threaten the established powers when India is striving at the cost of none.

Even though India’s rise would not threaten others, the dominant presence of Indian business and industrial houses and their forceful competition with global tycoons may not be digested as they who until now have dominated the global commerce. India is gradually innovating and venturing into the newer energy sources; its investors are undertaking multinational developmental projects; its diaspora is getting into policy and power corridors in various advanced countries. All these and many such spectacular achievements bound to draw the evil attention of many.

Instances of targeted conspiracies have been reported in recent times where Indian business houses, developmental projects, and reform initiatives are taken hostage or sabotaged by disguised external forces taking advantage of domestic dissent voices and disgruntled groups. This may sound unrealistic, or taste propagandistic, and can be sarcastically rubbished, but if analysed through the prism of the current geopolitical power game, every Indian can feel and realise the difficulty of being a rising power.

One may consume a handful of salt to swallow the assertions of politicians who view “Love-Jihad and religious conversions are being funded by foreign countries and a big conspiracy against India” or the anti-CAA protest as a global conspiracy by Muslim countries to “divide the country”. But the organizations involved in anti-nuclear protest around Kudankulam were proven to have been financed and backed by foreign vested interest groups. India has faced a huge loss for the hostage of the project leading to cost escalation and production delay.

Similarly, projects undertaken by Indian conglomerates abroad are facing the wraths of such vested interest groups who doesn’t like to see India’s increasing footprint in global trading and commerce networks. The Adani group is facing heavy flak from activists in Australia over its Charmichael coal mine project in Queensland, besides targeted defamation and maligning the Indian farm through social media by the “national and international parties with vested interests”.

Earlier, the France-based asset management company Amundi threatened to sell off SBI green bonds held by it unless State Bank of India (SBI) stopped its Rs 5,000 crore loan plan to Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in Australia. The New York-based BlackRock Inc. and Norway’s Storebrand ASA have also reportedly pressured the SBI about the loan.

It is certainly difficult to authenticate or substantiate the allegations of conspiracy against India as the matter is too sensitive with far-reaching implications. Also, such allegations lose seriousness as they are often used by some politicians “to cover up their failures. But does that mean there can never be a conspiracy against India?” As Abhishek Banerjee reminds, “Everyone knows the story of the boy who cried wolf. Not everyone notices that there are actually two lessons in that story. Don’t cry wolf for no reason. We all realised that one. The second lesson? Sometimes, there really is a wolf. So, watch out.”

—The author, Sitakanta Mishra, Associate Professor, School of Liberal Studies, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gujarat. Views are personal

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VIEW: Why Russia is an ideal partner to boost India’s civil nuclear energy program

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Russia has featured extensively in the news over the last several weeks, all for the right reasons. Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Moscow twice within the last three months. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar went to Moscow once in the second week of September 2020. All these visits underscore the special and privileged strategic partnership between India and Russia. The country supplies more than 60 percent of India’s total defence imports.

In addition to defence and strategic partnership, nuclear power is another critical sector in which cooperation between the two countries continues to grow rapidly.

The year 2020 marks the 75^th anniversary of the Russian nuclear industry. Russia has often been a pioneer in the peaceful use of atomic energy. In 1954, Russian scientists launched the first nuclear power station, and today there are three units with the latest 3+ generation reactors in Russia. Many more are being built in other countries. Over the last three-quarters of a century, thanks to the Russian nuclear industry, nuclear units have appeared in many foreign countries, including India.

The Russian nuclear industry is an undisputed leader in advanced nuclear technologies, providing innovative engineering and construction solutions for nuclear reactors and the production of nuclear fuel. Over its 75-year history, Russia has amassed a wealth of experience and acquired extensive competencies in large-scale nuclear projects. Rosatom has the world’s only nuclear icebreaker fleet, the most powerful fast neutron reactor, the first in its kind floating Nuclear Power Plant (NPP); it contributes to digitalization as well as nuclear medicine.

The development of the nuclear industry is seen as a top national priority in Russia. It is perceived to be a key sector of the Russian economy, essential for national energy security. The nuclear industry drives demand for other products and services and therefore stimulates engineering, steel making, geology, construction, and other sectors of the national economy.

By 2030, India plans to increase the share of renewables in its energy basket to 40 percent. In this regard, the country is paying significant attention to the development of nuclear energy and expects to increase energy production to 14.6 GW by 2024 and to 63 GW by 2032. It is time to assess how cooperation between the two countries can be further strengthened for nuclear power.

The cutting-edge work being done by the Russian nuclear industry in the past 75 years makes it a viable partner for India for accelerating civil nuclear energy programs. For 60 years out of its 75-year nuclear history, Russia has been working with India on peaceful nuclear energy generation with the construction of the Kudankulam NPP being the largest joint Russian Indian project in the energy sector so far.

Currently, the implementation of the Kudankulam NPP project involves the construction of six power units equipped with VVER-1000 reactors. In addition, in October 2018, Russia and India signed an “Action Plan for Setting Priorities and Implementing Areas of Cooperation in the Field of nuclear power”. According to the document, the parties intend, in particular, to develop a project for the construction in India of additional Russian-designed NPP power units on a new site, to expand cooperation in third countries and interaction in new promising areas in nuclear energy in addition to the construction of nuclear power plants. During the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russia in September 2019, it was announced that at least 12 Russian-designed power units could be built in India within 20 years.

Nuclear cooperation between the two countries is also promoting the government’s ‘’Make in India’’ initiative as some vital components are being increasingly manufactured in India.

It needs to be underscored that Russia is the only country that has successfully entered the nuclear power generation field in India with the latest technology. In addition, India and Russia are carrying their cooperation in this vital sector to other countries, the Rooppur nuclear power plant in Bangladesh being the first example.

The road ahead sees far more collaboration as the two countries roll out the plans agreed upon. In October this year, the two countries will celebrate the 20^th Anniversary of the Declaration of Strategic Partnership between India and Russia which enshrines the commitment to cooperate in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. As the highest levels of the two governments toast the success of the relationship so far, it will be time to set sights on new horizons in nuclear cooperation.

—Ashok Sajjanhar is President, Institute of Global Studies and a
former Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden, and Latvia (Retd.). He also served in Indian Embassy in USSR and Russian Federation. The views expressed are personal

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Hanoi appreciates India’s position on South China Sea, says Vietnamese envoy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Vietnam appreciates India’s position on the South China Sea issue which is especially relevant in context of recent incidents in its territorial waters, Vietnamese envoy to India Pham Sanh Chau said on Thursday. Pham also said that Vietnam understands India’s “genuine concerns” over which it did not join the RCEP.

“That is why we try to strengthen services cooperation with India,” he said.

After years of negotiations, India had pulled out of the China-backed mega Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) over unresolved “core concerns”, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying in Bangkok that the proposed deal would have adverse impact on the lives and livelihoods of all Indians.

The Vietnamese envoy was speaking at an event in New Delhi attended by Vijay Thakur, Secretary (East) at the External Affairs Ministry.

Thakur said India feels that sea links of communication passing through the South China Sea are critical for peace, stability, prosperity and development of the Indo-Pacific region due to which it is vital to ensure freedom of navigation.

Pham said Vietnam welcomes and appreciates India’s position on the South China Sea issue.

Thakur said India has been very clear and articulate that its vision of the Indo-Pacific is an open, inclusive and rule-based region and in that context we feel that there is a critical importance of South China Sea because it is an international waterway over which $5 trillion worth trade flows and over 30 percent of international supply of crude oil transits through these waters.

“We also believe that there should be a rule based order where there is respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and there must be a peaceful resolution of disputes and there should be no threat or use of force. The countries are engaged in negotiating code of conduct,” Thakur said.

“We do hope that this code of conduct that is negotiated respect international law,” she said at the round-table on Vietnam-India Relations: From Traditional Bonds to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

China claims sovereignty over all of South China Sea. Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims.

China is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Beijing has built up and militarised many of the islands and reefs it controls in the region. Both areas are stated to be rich in minerals, oil and other natural resources and are also vital to global trade.

Pham said India and Vietnam both strongly support each other and two sides have maintained regular political dialogue.

“More than 15 mechanisms to strengthen bilateral ties are there. We have also worked closely in cyber security, defence security. Many agreements have been signed on economic cooperation by the two countries,” he said.

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BRICS Summit: PM Modi meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brazil; discusses trade and investment

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi held in-depth talks with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Brasilia and the two leaders have agreed to maintain close contact on matters relating to trade and investment to further deepen and add new vigour to India-China relations.

During the meeting held on the margins of the 11th BRICS Summit on Wednesday,  PM Modi said there was a “new direction and new energy” in bilateral ties after their second informal summit in Chennai last month.

“Held talks with President Xi Jinping. Several subjects pertaining to deepening bilateral cooperation were discussed. Today’s discussions will add new vigour to India-China relations,” Modi tweeted after the meeting.

“Fruitful meeting between PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines on the BRICS Summit in Brazil. Trade and investment were among the key issues both leaders talked about,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a separate tweet.

The leaders had forward-looking discussions on various aspects of the multifaceted India-China relationship, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said in a tweet.

Modi, XI agree on close dialogue

Prime Minister Modi and president Xi agreed on the importance of maintaining close dialogue on matters relating to trade and investment. The two leaders agreed that the new high level mechanism on trade and economy should meet at an early date, according to a press release issued by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

“I am glad to meet you once again. When I look back, we had met for the first time in Brazil itself… and our journey began. This journey of unknown people has today turned into a close friendship.

“Since then, we have met at many forums, bilaterals; you visited my home state, took me to your village, came to receive me outside Beijing in Wuhan…. It is such a significant thing that within the five years, there have been so much trust and friendly relations,” Modi told Xi.

“As you said and I believe that our meeting in Chennai gave our journey a new direction and new energy. Without any agenda, we talked about each other’s issues, global situations… these have been very successful,” Modi said on the second informal summit at Mamallapuram, a coastal town near Chennai, on October 11-12.

The leaders noted that the special representatives will have another meeting on matters relating to the boundary question and reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and security in the border areas, the MEA statement said.

President Xi thanked prime minister Modi for India’s substantial participation in the just-concluded China Import Export Expo in Shanghai.

Xi noted that he was told that India was the country with the largest increase in transaction volume at the expo compared with last year.

“China welcomes more exports of India’s high-quality products to China,” and called on the two countries to expand two-way trade and investment and create new growth points for cooperation in productivity, medicine, information technology, infrastructure and other fields, the official Xinhua news agency quoted Xi as saying.

India-China trade deficit at $57 billion

From India’s point of view, the huge trade deficit of $57 billion with China has become a major issue. The issue was discussed during the 2nd informal summit and the two leaders have agreed to set up new mechanism led by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Chinese vice-premier Hu Chunhua to discuss trade, investment and services.

Xi conveyed his deep appreciation to Modi for hosting him at the second informal summit in Chennai and said that he would not forget the welcome given to him by the prime minister and the people of India.

Xi stressed that he is willing to maintain close communication with Modi to jointly steer the direction of China-India relations, increase political mutual trust, properly manage differences and expand practical cooperation so as to guide a better and more stable development of bilateral ties, the Xinhua report said.

Xi hoped that China-India ties will achieve new and greater development in 2020, adding that he is looking forward to meeting with Modi again in China in the new year.

He invited Modi for the 3rd informal summit in China in 2020. The date and venue for which will be determined through diplomatic channels.

The two leaders reviewed preparations for celebrating the 70th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations next year. They agreed that this will enhance people-to-people relations.

Modi, Xi share views on multilateral issues, including RCEP

The leaders also exchanged views on multilateral issues including WTO, BRICS and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) at the BRICS Summit held to focus on building mechanisms for counter-terrorism cooperation and strengthen India’s ties with the world’s five major economies.

The meeting between Modi and Xi in the Brazilian capital comes days after India decided not to join China-backed RCEP over unresolved “core concerns”, with India saying the proposed deal would have adverse impact on the lives and livelihoods of all Indians.

It also took place amidst renewed strain in ties between the two countries over the Kashmir issue. A joint statement issued after talks between President Xi and Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan last month said China was paying “close attention” to the situation in Kashmir and that it should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN Charter.

In its reaction, the MEA said India’s consistent and clear position has been that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of the country and China is well aware of New Delhi’s position.

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