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India likely to report higher GDP growth estimates for FY24

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

An increased estimate of annual gross domestic product is widely expected after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its own growth forecast last month to 7% for the current fiscal year, from an earlier estimate of 6.5%.

India is likely to project higher economic growth estimates of around 7% for the 2023/24 fiscal year ending in March, compared with earlier government forecasts when the National Statistical Office releases its first advance GDP estimates on Friday.

An increased estimate of annual gross domestic product is widely expected after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its own growth forecast last month to 7% for the current fiscal year, from an earlier estimate of 6.5%.

The advance estimates of GDP, which go under six revisions over time, will be released on Friday at 1200 GMT.

The central bank’s revised growth forecast of 7% for 2023/24 was a ”conservative estimate” considering robust growth reflected in high-frequency indicators data for October and November, Michael Patra, RBI’s deputy governor said last month.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has increased state spending on infrastructure projects to bolster economic growth amid sluggish consumer spending, which, analysts said, is likely to help him win a third term in the national election scheduled before May.

The Indian economy grew faster than expected 7.6% year-on-year in the September quarter, after growing 7.8% in the previous quarter, prompting many private economists to upwardly revise their yearly estimates.

Among others, S&P Global Ratings expects India will remain the fastest-growing major economy for the next three years, setting to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030.

S&P expects India, currently the world’s fifth-largest economy, to grow at 6.4% this fiscal and estimates growth will pick up to 7% by fiscal 2027.

In contrast, it expects China’s growth to slow to 4.6% by 2026 from an estimated 5.4% this year.

Economists said the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is unlikely to cut the benchmark policy rate of 6.5% for the next few quarters amid the risk of a spike in food inflation in the election year.

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Inflation likely to be a big focus area for budget 2024

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

As the countdown to the 2024 budget commences, sources inform CNBC-TV18 that the government is placing a significant emphasis on addressing inflation. India’s retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.55% in November on rising prices of kitchen essentials, showed data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday (December 12).

As the countdown to the 2024 budget commences, sources inform CNBC-TV18 that the government is placing a significant emphasis on addressing inflation.

Sources say that the government is concerned over high commodity prices and expects them to remain elevated throughout the year.

In November, India experienced a surge in retail inflation, reaching a three-month peak of 5.55%, as per data disclosed by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on December 12.

This marked an increase from October’s 4.87% and a slight decrease from the 5.88% recorded in November of the previous year.

The inflationary trend was particularly pronounced in the food basket, where the rate of price increase reached 8.7%, up from 6.61% in October and 4.67% in November 2022, according to NSO data.

The government is particularly troubled by the persistent high costs of fertilisers, anticipating little relief in this regard.

Additionally, weather-related events are anticipated to pose challenges for various food items like tomatoes and onions, while staple commodities such as wheat, rice, and pulses are areas of particular concern.

CNBC-TV18 also learns that the government plans to revise current GDP and export targets. This adjustment will account for the economic repercussions of the Red Sea crisis, which is expected to have a notable impact.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India to become $4 trillion economy before 2024 elections: Piyush Goyal

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

India maintains its position as the fastest-growing major economy globally, with the National Statistical Office reporting a robust 7.6% growth in real GDP for the second quarter of the fiscal year, exceeding market expectations and the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast.

India is poised to become a $4 trillion economy before the upcoming general elections, according to a statement by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on January 3. Goyal expressed confidence that within 2-2.5 years, India would further soar to a $5 trillion economy, positioning it as the third-largest GDP in the world by 2027. The minister made these remarks during the inauguration of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Utsav in New Delhi.

Goyal’s optimistic outlook follows unverified reports in November suggesting that India had already reached the $4 trillion mark. However, current data indicates that, based on a budgeted target of 10.5% for nominal GDP growth in FY24, India is striving for a $3.7 trillion figure in the current fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook database for October 2023 projects India’s GDP to reach $4.95 trillion in 2026.

The significance of the $5 trillion target lies in Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s call in 2019 for the country to achieve this milestone by 2024 during his second term.

India maintains its position as the fastest-growing major economy globally, with the National Statistical Office reporting a robust 7.6% growth in real GDP for the second quarter of the fiscal year, exceeding market expectations and the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast.

Despite a dip in GDP growth to 7.7% for the first half of 2023-24, down from 9.5% in the corresponding period the previous year, the Reserve Bank of India revised its forecast in December, projecting a 7% growth rate for FY24.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, speaking at the same event, underscored the importance of preserving national identity in the era of globalisation.

He stressed the need to instill pride in both producers and consumers, encouraging the purchase of products made in India. Recent data indicates a decline in India’s merchandise exports by 6.5% YoY in April-November, while imports contracted by 8.67% during the same period. The commerce ministry anticipates a rise in exports during the last quarter of the current fiscal year based on historical trends.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India economic outlook 2024: Experts weigh in on growth, interest rates, and rupee

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Leading economists discussed their outlook on India’s GDP, interest rates, and currency in a chat with CNBC-TV18.

The Indian economy grew a solid 6.5% in 2023, outpacing most major economies. However, the road ahead may be bumpy given the weak global economic outlook, according to economists who shared insights with CNBC-TV18 on their estimates of GDP, interest rates and the rupee.

Samiran Chakraborty, Chief India Economist at Citi, predicts a modest 50 basis points (bps) drop in GDP growth rate for India in the fiscal year 2025. Citi’s global economists forecast a drop in global growth from 2.7% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024, affecting India’s growth rate.

Santanu Sengupta, Chief India Economist at Goldman Sachs, attributed the lower growth forecast of 6.5% for fiscal year 2025 to a fiscal drag. He noted optimism in US growth but emphasised the impact of fiscal policies on India’s economic prospects.

Sakshi Gupta, Deputy Vice President and Sr. Economist at HDFC Bank, echoed these sentiments, projecting a growth rate of 6.3% for the upcoming year. Gupta anticipated a slowdown due to the global economic downturn and foresees a fiscal drag affecting India’s economic performance.

Gupta anticipates a tight monetary policy for at least the first half of the year. Even if rate cuts are implemented in the latter part of the year, they are expected to be gradual. The tight monetary stance, coupled with global economic challenges, is likely to exert pressure on India’s growth prospects.

Also Read | India’s agricultural outlook for 2024: Experts flag election challenges, low harvests, and inflation woes

Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive and Head-Treasury, Markets, and Wholesale Banking Products at Axis Bank, foresees a range-bound bond market with stable rates. Despite potential fluctuations in deposit rates, a generally stable rate regime is expected.

Sakshi Gupta further suggested that once the election uncertainty subsides, the second half of the fiscal year might witness more broad-based signs of private capex revival. This indicates a potential turnaround in economic sentiment and investment patterns.

Also Read | This analyst feels a decisive BJP win in the states and 2024 general elections might fuel another market rally

For more, watch the accompanying video

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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CNBC-TV18 Poll: Majority economists expect India’s FY25 GDP to be between 6.2% and 6.4%

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The global economy navigated a challenging 2023, enduring some setbacks but managing reasonably well with the anticipation of a soft landing in 2024. Against this backdrop, CNBC-TV18 conducted a survey among a group of economists to gather insights into their projections for the Indian economy in 2024.

The global economy navigated a challenging 2023, enduring some setbacks but managing reasonably well with the anticipation of a soft landing in 2024.

Against this backdrop, CNBC-TV18 conducted a survey among a group of economists to gather insights into their projections for the Indian economy in 2024.

As per the survey results, a majority of 60% of respondents anticipate the Indian economy to achieve a growth rate ranging between 6.2% and 6.4% in FY25, while 30% foresee the GDP reaching approximately 7% in the same fiscal year.

On November 30, India disclosed its gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the July-August quarter, revealing a growth of 7.6%. This marked a slight decrease from the previous quarter’s GDP growth of 7.8% and an increase from the 6.2% recorded in the same period last year.

Despite recent indications from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor regarding a potential pickup in private capital expenditure, government spending is expected to remain the primary catalyst for growth in 2024.

A significant portion of the surveyed economists believe that the government’s fiscal deficit will experience a slight decrease, moving from the targeted 5.9% for FY24 to a range of 5.5%-5.8% for FY25.

By the conclusion of November 2023, the fiscal deficit of the Indian government has exceeded 50% of the full-year budget estimate (BE), totaling ₹9.06 lakh crore, as per data disclosed by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday, December 29.

In contrast, during the same period in the previous year, the deficit was at 58.9% of the BE for 2022-23. The government’s anticipated fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2023-24 is ₹17.86 lakh crore, equivalent to 5.9% of the GDP.

Compared to the previous year, the rupee demonstrated resilience throughout 2023, and a majority of economists predict it to trade within the range of 82 to 84 against the dollar in 2024.

In terms of inflation, there is a widespread expectation for it to hover around 4.5-5%, slightly higher than the elusive 4% mid-point targeted by the RBI.

In November, India experienced a three-month high in retail inflation, reaching 5.55%, as indicated by data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on December 12. This surge was attributed to the increasing prices of kitchen essentials.

In comparison, the retail inflation stood at 4.87% in October and 5.88% in November of the previous year. The data from the National Statistical Office revealed that the rate of price increase in the food basket rose to 8.7%, up from 6.61% in October and 4.67% in November 2022.

Looking ahead to monetary policy, a majority of respondents anticipate a repo rate cut by the RBI in the second quarter of FY25. Half of the respondents predicted the repo rate to reach 6% by the close of 2024.

Interestingly, a unanimous consensus emerged among the respondents concerning the 10-year bond yield range, projected to be between 6.75% and 7% by the end of 2024.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India’s economic growth to boost corporate sector: Fitch Ratings

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Fitch Ratings predicts India’s robust economic growth will drive corporate demand, offsetting global market challenges. Fitch expects resilient GDP growth at 6.5% in 2024-25, citing improved infrastructure and sector-specific boosts.

Leading credit rating firm Fitch Ratings expects that India’s resilient economic growth will boost the demand of the corporate sector.

In its latest research report on ’India Corporates: Sector Trends 2024’, Fitch said that this is a sequel to the robust performance of the corporate sector in 2023 and will offset weakness from slowing growth in the key overseas markets.

Rising demand and easing input cost pressure should boost the margins of the corporates in the next financial year, Fitch said.

Fitch said that with strong domestic demand growth, it is expected that India will be among the world’s fastest-growing countries, with resilient GDP growth of 6.5% during the fiscal 2024-25.

This is despite a challenging global backdrop and the cumulative impact of the recent monetary tightening, it said.

Sectors like cement, electricity and petroleum products are expected to witness a strong demand with high-frequency data in 2023 sustained well above pre-COVID pandemic levels.

Fitch said that India’s improving infrastructure will also boost steel demand. Slowing down in the US and the Eurozone is likely to moderate growth of the IT services.

Fitch said rising domestic auto sales volume should drive revenues of the auto suppliers, while travel and tourism conditions also improved in 2023.

Also read: IMF report on India debt: Government says report only talks of “worst case scenario”

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Stock market set to surge even as slowdown looms over the economy

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

India’s second-quarter GDP growth of 7.6% and the possibility of political stability post-2024 elections have sparked market enthusiasm. However, it is better to err on the side of caution due to base effects, potential overstatement of GDP, and uneven growth in labour-intensive sectors. Despite positive corporate earnings and stock valuations, there remain concerns over economic exuberance. The four-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) since FY20 is less than 4%, indicating a slower economic pace. FY25 could pose challenges with a likely fiscal deficit reduction, absence of YoY commodity price advantage, and lower global growth estimates.

The markets are on fire after India’s scorching second-quarter GDP number of 7.6% and the reassurance from the ballot box that the nation is mostly assured of political continuity, stability and certainty even after the 2024 polls.    While equity experts are right to note that there is still valuation comfort on the indices and on many large-cap names, on the political economy front, we need to be cautious of too much exuberance on growth.

Here’s why:

1. The enthusiasm over the second-quarter GDP coming in at 7.6%  needs to be a tad tempered. As many an economist has pointed out, the 13.9% manufacturing growth, which yanked up the Q2 GDP numbers, had a huge base effect. Q2 of 2022-23 saw the manufacturing sector contract by 3.8%.

2. There is additional scepticism over the way the GDP components are deflated, which exaggerates growth in a year of falling input prices. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) doesn’t deflate the input and output prices separately to arrive at the real GVA, but only deflates the net value added; this method exaggerates growth at a time when raw material prices falling. Chances are, therefore, that last year’s GDP was understated, while this year’s is overstated. This means last year’s full-year GDP was a shade higher than 7.2%, and this year’s GDP, if properly deflated, would be a shade lower than the projected 6.5% growth. This points to the fact that growth is actually slowing.

3. The bigger worry about the GDP internals is that the two labour-intensive sectors -agri and services- have shown sub-par growth in Q2. Agriculture & allied activities grew just 1.2% while “trade, hotels, transport & communication” – a hugely labour-intensive services sector category, has grown only 4.3%. Services as a whole grew only 5.8%. This points to an extremely skewed or inequitous growth pattern.

4. Even though November auto sales and the festive-season home and jewellery sales are being touted as huge, the Q2 numbers show that private consumption has grown by only 3.1%. It’s government consumption, at 12.4%, and capital formation at 11% that are growing well. And the capital formation by the private sector, which appeared to pick up in Q4FY23, has dwindled sharply in Q2, CMIE data shows.

Again, this is not to doubt earnings growth or the price surge in equity markets. Corporate earnings have seen upgrades after the second quarter results. As per Motilal Oswal Financial Securities, the Nifty EPS will likely be at 996 by FY24-end, marking a year-on-year growth of 24%. MOFSL sees a 14% rise in Nifty EPS for FY25 to 1,135. While Nifty P/E trades at nearly 21x  if one took FY24 earnings, on FY25 earnings, the valuation falls to 18.4x, below the last 10-year average Nifty-traded valuation of 19.5x

Stocks Not Overvalued Yet

The worry is concerning over-exuberance on the general economy, not stock valuations. On the economy front, despite the higher-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth of 7.6%, on a four-year basis starting from the pre-COVID year of FY20, the GDP is growing at a four-year compounded annual rate (CAGR) of less than 4% versus the 6% CAGR in the decade leading to FY19.

FY25 Set To Be A Tougher Year For Economy

The widespread expectation is that with the return of a strong government in 2024, following the election, the Centre will be able to take tougher steps to buoy growth. However, as of now, the chances of a marked slowdown in economic growth in FY25 look more likely.

Let’s look at why that might be the case.

Firstly, the current year’s likely 6.5%-plus GDP growth is built on a large fiscal deficit of nearly 9% (5.9% central deficit, plus 3% states’ deficit). Hence, this year’s GDP is more akin to growth from the intake of steroids. This deficit will have to come down sharply in FY25 and that can take its toll on growth since private capex has yet to take off.

Secondly, the advantage of falling YoY commodity prices won’t be available next year. This is obvious in the Nifty EPS forecasts for next year, which range around 12-15% versus 24-25% this year.- This will have a concomitant impact on the national gross value add.

Thirdly, the consensus estimates for global growth next year are sharply lower than this year. The Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2024 stand at 2.1% versus 2.7% for this year, although a Reuters poll puts 2024 growth at 2.6% as against 2.9% this year. Either way, the bet is for slower growth.

Also read: India set to become the third-largest economy by 2030: S&P Global Ratings

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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States’ debt to stay high at 31-32% of GDP, expected to exceed ₹87 lakh crore: Report

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

Before Covid, the debt-GSDP ratio was at 28-29. However the aggregate gross fiscal deficit (GFD) as a ratio of GSDP is expected to remain at 2.5, well below the mandated level of 3 under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, according to a Crisil Ratings report.

States’ debt will remain elevated at 31-32% of their gross domestic product amid higher capital outlays and moderate revenue growth this fiscal, with overall borrowings likely to rise by 9% to over ₹87 lakh crore, a report said.

The indebtedness of a state is measured as the ratio of its debt to gross state domestic product (GSDP).

Before Covid, the debt-GSDP ratio was at 28-29. However the aggregate gross fiscal deficit (GFD) as a ratio of GSDP is expected to remain at 2.5, well below the mandated level of 3 under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, according to a Crisil Ratings report.

With lower-than-expected revenue growth, states are forced to borrow more to expand capital outlays, besides meeting high committed revenue expenditure related to salaries, pensions and interest costs. This, along with modest single-digit revenue growth, will keep the debt level high at 31-32 per cent of their gross domestic output.

The report is based on the numbers available from the top 18 states (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan, Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Odisha, Punjab, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Jharkhand and Goa), accounting for 90% of the aggregate GSDP.

Also Read: India gets a slew of upgrades to its growth estimates

After a small revenue surplus in fiscal 2022, the states have slipped into deficit in fiscal 2023, as overall revenue grew at a modest 8% while revenue expenditure rose faster at 11% on-year.

This fiscal, overall revenue is expected to rise only 6-8%, supported by goods and services tax collections, devolutions from the Centre, and taxes and duties on liquor.

On the other hand, revenue expenditure is set to increase 8-10%, driven by higher committed expenditure, and increasing social welfare and public health-related expenses which combined come in at around 65% of the total revenue expenditure of the states.

According to Anuj Sethi, a senior director with the agency, the revenue deficit will inch up to 0.5% of GSDP this fiscal from 0.3% last fiscal.

This, coupled with the 18-20% on-year increase in capital outlays or 2.3% of GSDP on key infrastructure segments such as water supply and sanitation, urban development, roads and irrigation, will necessitate higher borrowings this fiscal too.

Also Read: India Q2 GDP: Growth beats estimates, rises to 7.6% in September quarter

However, the 50-year interest-free loans worth ₹1.3 lakh crore from the Centre to the states will help meet part of the capital outlay and catalyse investments. This loan is not included in the borrowing limit of 3% of GSDP for states this fiscal.

According to Aditya Jhaver, a director with the agency, overall balance sheet borrowings of the states and off-budget debt funding like guarantees to the power sector and irrigation entities, are likely to go up by ₹7.5 lakh crore this fiscal and cross ₹87 lakh crore, keeping states’ indebtedness high at 31-32%, similar to fiscal 2023.

Already, borrowings through state development loans, which comprise 65% of their overall borrowings, rose 28% on-year between April and November 2023.

Any slowdown in economic activity can hurt GSDP growth and pose downside risks. On the other hand, better-than-expected tax buoyancy or support from the Centre in the form of higher grants may provide further liquidity buffer to states.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India gets a slew of upgrades to its growth estimates

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

Goldman Sachs has increased India’s calendar year 2023 growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.7% year-on-year but kept its 2024 forecast unchanged at 6.2%.

India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates were raised by analysts across the Street after the September quarter print surpassed consensus expectations.

For the September quarter, India’s GDP grew by 7.6% from last year, compared to a CNBC-TV18 poll of 7%. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that there will be an upside to the 6.5% GDP forecast this year and that the growth momentum will continue in the December quarter as well.

The CEA also said that the high tax buoyancy shows that India may be understating its economic growth.

Goldman Sachs has increased India’s calendar year 2023 growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.7% year-on-year but kept its 2024 forecast unchanged at 6.2%.

“We note potential downside risks to the 2024 growth outlook owing to the new regulatory measures by the RBI targeted at unsecured personal loans,” the note said.

India’s financial year 2024 GDP forecast has also been hiked by 50 basis points by brokerage firm Citi to 6.7%. “Overall, GDP data reaffirmed two trends — investment outpacing consumption and two-paced growth momentum,” the note said.

Citi is also expecting the Reserve Bank of India to maintain a status quo on interest rates and maintain the stance at “Withdrawal of Accommodation” at the December policy meeting.

State Bank of India has also raised India’s financial year 2024 GDP forecast to 7% from 6.7% earlier, while Axis Capital has raised estimates to 6.7% with upside risks.

Morgan Stanley has also raised the financial year 2024 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% earlier, driven by robust domestic demand. For the financial year 2025, the brokerage has maintained its estimates at 6.5%.

However, HSBC expects growth could soften from these levels due to weaker FDI inflows, a likely softness in credit growth and normalising base effects over the next few months.

In his address at the third edition of India Debt Capital Market Summit 2023, Union Minister Piyush Goyal spoke about how India was earlier categorised as a fragile 5 economy, and how the Narendra Modi government worked towards changing this.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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India Q2 GDP: Growth beats estimates, rises to 7.6% in September quarter

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The second quarter GDP growth came at 7.6%. A CNBC-TV18 poll estimated the number at 7.03%. This is also above the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 6.5%. 

India announced its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the July-August quarter on Thursday, November 30. The second quarter GDP growth came at 7.6%. A CNBC-TV18 poll estimated the number at 7.03%. This is also above the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 6.5%.

In the previous quarter, the GDP growth came at 7.8%, and 6.2% in the year-ago period.

The gross value added for the period came at 7.4%, against the CNBC-TV18 poll estimate of 7%. In the previous quarter, the GVA growth came at 7.8%, and 5.4% in the year-ago period.

Agriculture growth for the quarter stood at 1.2% against the expected 2.7%. In the preceding quarter, the agriculture growth stood at 3.5%. In the corresponding period in the previous year, the agri growth came at 2.5%. 

Here’s how the other sectors performed:

Q2FY24 QoQ YoY
Mining 10% 5.8% -0.1%
Manufacturing 13.9% 4.7% -3.8%
Electricity 10.1% 2.9% 6%
Trade, Hotels 4.3% 9.2% 15.6%
Fin & Real Estate 6% 12.2% 7.1%
Public Admin & Services 7.6% 7.9% 7.6%
Construction 13.3% 7.9% 5.7%

The nominal GDP is at 9.1%, above the expectation of 8%. The nominal GDP came at 17.2% in the year-ago period and at 8% in the previous quarter. The nominal GVA for the second quarter came at 9%. The nominal GVA came at 16.1% in the year-ago period and at 8% in the previous quarter.

The July-September GDP numbers are the last big numbers before the monetary policy. A strong growth may reinforce the need for a tight liquidity policy.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

Next Article

Shanghai residents turn to NFTs to record COVID lockdown, combat censorship

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
Quiz
Powered by
Are you a Crypto Head? It’s time to prove it!
10 Questions · 5 Minutes
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Win WRX (WazirX token) worth Rs. 1500.
Question 1 of 5

What coins do you think will be valuable over next 3 years?

Answer Anonymously

Should Elon Musk be able to buy Twitter?