How Tesla could reshape India’s EV market: experts weigh in
KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)
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Summary
Shirish Chandran, Editor of EVO India magazine, and Gagan Sidhu, Director of CEEW-Centre for Energy Finance, believe Tesla’s entry into India will boost the domestic market. They also discussed the challenges India faces in transitioning to electric vehicles in the four-wheeler segment.
Shirish Chandran, Editor of EVO India magazine believes the entry of Tesla will prove beneficial for the Indian electric vehicle (EV) market as it will help the market grow.
“…because they got to make so much noise in India, that will really give that whole impetus to the Indian electric car scene, and it will grow the market. Because the more players that come in, it’s better for everybody because there is more confidence, buyers get more confidence in electric vehicles and also it will offer something that is not really there,” Chandran told CNBC-TV18.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is also set to visit India on April 22. This visit comes just weeks after the Indian government announced a new electric vehicle manufacturing policy, which sweetened the deal for Musk to enter the Indian market.
According to a Reuters report, the US electric carmaker is already scouting for showroom locations in New Delhi and Mumbai, with plans to start sales in India later this year.
Gagan Sidhu, Director of CEEW-Centre for Energy Finance also shared his views on India’s transition to EVs, particularly in the four-wheeler space.
He believes there are two key reasons why four-wheelers have lagged two- and three-wheelers in the EV space: one is the fact that charging infrastructure is an issue and two, there are not enough vehicle models on offer.
Below is the verbatim transcript of the interview.
Q: Your thoughts on Tesla’s entry and how this would sort of change the dynamics of the EV market in India.
Sidhu: It can only be a good thing really at an early stage when it comes to India’s EV transition. Penetration has been growing, but it’s really not at the level, anywhere close to what the government visions it wants to achieve by 2030, which is about a 30% penetration on average. So you want the EV ecosystem to grow, you want new models to come in.
Remember India’s EV transition so far has actually been led on the volume side at least by two-wheelers, e-rickshaws and three-wheelers. It is the four-wheeler segment, which has lagged quite a bit. Some of it has to do with the fact that charging infrastructure is an issue. Some of it has also got to do with the fact that perhaps there is not enough model offering. So I think Tesla coming in can certainly add to the mix in terms of boosting the supply or the availability of the choices for consumers.
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Q: EV adoption and passenger vehicles has been plateauing for the last many months, and the adoption is less than 2% at the moment. You spoke about two things, limited options as well as charging infrastructure issues. Let me add to that there is a pricing premium as well. EV cars are at the moment about 30-40% more expensive than an average petrol car in the same category. Do you think that is another hindrance and will Tesla be able to navigate all of these problems?
Sidhu: Pricing is certainly an issue and in fact, it is also important to bring up the topic of policy. There’s a host of policies actually that we tend to sort of not fit together and look holistically of have to drive or catalyse the ecosystem India. So to start with, for example, there’s a production-linked incentive not just for EVs, but for advanced automobiles. There’s FAME which actually sunsetted at the end of the previous financial year, just last month, but as a demand side measure there is an electric mobility promotion scheme just come in as a bit of an interim measure. This lowers GST on EVs 5%. There is state level policies on top of all this, so I think all of these things sort of work together in tandem, to inherently reverse the pricing disadvantage that electric vehicles face vis-à-vis internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
Q: A couple of weeks ago, Tesla announced that for Q4 their numbers were weak. A couple of days ago, they decided to lay off 10% of their global workforce. This speaks a lot about how there could be a big global slowdown in the EV space. Is that just a blip or do you think it’s a structural slowdown and what do you think the ramifications of this could be on the Indian market?
Chandran: Not just Tesla, Mercedes also recently walked back from the goal towards 2030, all EVs. So they said that after 2030 also they are going to have combustion vehicles, maybe hybrid combustion vehicles. So globally, all manufacturers not just Tesla are seeing a slowdown in the EV space. But let us put it into perspective. Globally, EVs are at a more advanced adoption level. In India, we still have a long runway to go to get there. EVs are less than 2% of overall car sales in India. So we have a considerable runway.
India I think as a market is suitable for EVs, if you have your own parking space, if you can put your own charger, you are sorted, you don’t really have much issue in terms of range anxiety, and where you are going to charge it and all that. In fact, with an EV it is more convenient, you don’t have to go to a fuel station, you don’t have to line up for fuel, petrol or diesel or whatever. Also driving around in an EV in the city is actually much easier than driving a combustion vehicle. So here in India, if you don’t look at what’s going internationally, because Indian market dynamics are very different.
Also, the affordability levels in India are very different. With an EV, your charging costs are almost next to nothing, it costs less to run an EV than to use a local municipality transport bus. So your running costs are very low and Indians are very value-conscious. So I think there’s a long way we can go and there is space to grow, lots of space to grow in India.
Q: You were earlier telling us stories about the issues that the passenger vehicle space in the EV market are facing. Penetration is less than 2% and there are three main issues that we discussed with Gagan as well. Limited options in the EV market, a premium pricing. Most of these EVs are 30-40% more expensive and then range anxiety. Do you think we made any headway with the three of these issues and by when do you think penetration will reach about double digits, 10%?
Chandran: So let us start with cost, the more players come in, overall costs go down because they do a lot of local manufacturing and that’s going to help all of us so that’s one. Range anxiety, a lot of the OEMs say that it is over-indexed, and we tend to stress a little too much on range anxiety, if you have a charger and now suppose you are commuting in Mumbai with your home charger, you are fine. How many times do you go from Mumbai to Goa, once a year, twice a year, that time of course you have to plan it out you have to charge up completely maybe stop at some charging point, and then charge until you get to Goa. But the newer range EVs that are coming will have a real-world range of say 500 kilometres.
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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow