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Economic Survey 2019: Policies to unshackle MSME sector needed for growth; need to focus on ‘infant’ firms

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The Economic Survey 2018-19 notes that the government’s policies should focus on enabling the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to grow by unshackling them. The Survey calls for incentivising ‘infant’ firms instead of ‘dwarf’ firms through various measures such as sunset clause and reorienting Priority Sector Lending (PSL).

The Economic Survey 2018-19 notes that the government’s policies should focus on enabling the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to grow by unshackling them. The Survey calls for incentivising ‘infant’ firms instead of ‘dwarf’ firms through various measures such as sunset clause and reorienting Priority Sector Lending (PSL).

“MSMEs that grow not only create greater profits for their promoters but also contribute to job creation and productivity in the economy,” the Survey noted.

Firms with less than 100 workers despite being 10 years old are defined as ‘dwarf’, those with more than 100 workers are ‘large’ while small firms that are small when they are young but can grow to become large firms have been defined as ‘infant’ by the Economic Survey.

According to the Survey, ‘dwarfs’ account for more than half of organised manufacturing firms in the sector but only contribute 14 percent to employment and 8 percent to productivity.

On the other hand, large firms account for more than 75 percent of employment and close to 90 percent of productivity, despite being 15 percent in number.

The data shows that the focus should shift to enabling MSMEs to grow, the Survey reasons.

The Survey draws a distinction between ‘dwarf’ firms and ‘infant’ firms in the MSME sector and emphasises providing incentives to ‘infant’ firms instead of ‘dwarf’ firms as the latter have continued to remain small despite ageing. They have low productivity and add very little to the manufacturing sector.

On the other hand, ‘infant’ firms are small firms when they are young but have potential to become ‘large’ as they age. They have high productivity and add high value in manufacturing.

The Survey said that ‘dwarfs’ consume vital resources that could possibly be given to ‘infants’, necessitating a “re-calibration of policy towards supporting infant firms”.

The Survey proposes the following five measures to be adopted to this effect:

  1. Incentivising ‘infant’ firms instead of small firms: If incentives are given to all firms irrespective of age, firms are motivated to continue to stay small. This can be avoided when small firms know that they receive no benefit from staying small despite ageing, naturally activating their incentives for growth. Misuse of age-based criterion can be avoided using Aadhar. For instance, if a promoter starts a new firm, utilises the benefits for ten years when the age-based policy is available and then closes the firm to start a new one to avail the age-based benefits through this new firm, then the Aadhaar of the promoter can alert authorities about this misuse.
  2. Reorienting PSL: Existing lending policy of banks incentivises firms to stay small. Under MSME’s PSL targets, it is necessary to prioritize start-ups and infants in high employment elastic sectors. This will enhance direct credit flow to sectors that create maximum jobs in the economy.
  3. Sunset clause for incentives: Every incentive for fostering growth should have a sunset clause such that the incentives cease to have effect after 5-7 years. This will create incentives for small firms to grow and would ensure that vital resources are only being provided to infant firms.
  4. Focus on high employment elastic sectors: The manufacture of rubber and plastic products, electronic and optical products, transport equipment, machinery, basic metals and fabricated metal products, chemicals and chemical products, textiles and leather and leather products, are the sub-sectors with highest employment elasticities and policy focus should be on these sectors to ensure high job creation.
  5. Focus on service sectors with high spillover effects such as tourism: Developing key tourist centres will have ripple effects on job creation in areas such as tour and safari guides, hotels, catering and housekeeping staff, shops at tourist spots etc. Tourist spots should be identified and developed and air and road connectivity should be built in these spots to boost economic activity.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Economic Survey 2019: Here are the key highlights

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The economic survey, prepared by Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday. 

Each year, the Department of Economic Affairs of the Ministry of Finance presents the economic survey in the Parliament, one day before the Union budget presentation.

The survey, prepared by Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday.

Here are the key highlights: 

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is seen at 7 percent in the financial year 2020.
  • Higher FY20 growth predicted on stable macroeconomic condition.
  • Investment rate seems to have bottomed out. It is expected to pick up in 2019-20 on the back of credit growth and improved demand.
  • The general fiscal deficit is seen at 5.8 percent in FY19 as compared to 6.4 percent in FY18.
  • Green shoots in investment activity seem to be taking hold.
  • The investment rate is seen higher in FY20 on higher credit growth.
  • Growth in the January-March quarter slowed down partly due to
    poll-related uncertainty.
  • The government requested not to compromise on fiscal gap aim to fund new schemes.
  • Sustaining 8 percent growth is necessary to become a $5 trillion economy by FY25.
  • Goods and Services Tax (GST) buoyancy in FY20 will be key to improved fiscal situation.
  • The survey cites several fiscal challenges in FY20. Slow growth, GST and farm schemes to remain major obstacles.
  • Revenue mop-up may be hit if growth slows in FY20, the survey warns.
  • Expects government policies to further lift restrictions on foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows.
  • Liquidity has remained systematically tight since September 2018, impacting yields.
  • Lower global growth and increased uncertainty over trade tension may hit exports.
  • Growth in service exports and imports in the US dollar declined to 5.5 percent and 6.7 percent respectively in FY’18 from 18.8 percent and 22.6 percent in FY’19.
  • Job creation can be fostered by boosting investment, adding that the aggressive export strategy must be part of an investment-driven model.
  • Savings have to increase more than investments to allow for the accumulation of precautionary savings.
  • Virtuous cycle of savings, investment, exports and growth with investment are needed as the central driver.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Economic Survey 2019: GDP growth predicted at 7% for FY20

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Summary

The economic survey, prepared by chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, which was tabled in the Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman today, has predicted 7 percent GDP growth in the financial year 2020. The economic survey report mentioned stable macroeconomic conditions as the reason behind the higher growth forecast for this fiscal. Huge political mandate augurs …

The economic survey, prepared by chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, which was tabled in the Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman today, has predicted 7 percent GDP growth in the financial year 2020.

The economic survey report mentioned stable macroeconomic conditions as the reason behind the higher growth forecast for this fiscal. Huge political mandate augurs well for growth prospects, it noted.

The report said that the crisis in the NBFC sector has been a reason for a growth slowdown in the financial year 2019. The country’s GDP growth has averaged a high 7.5 percent in the last five years, the economic survey report added.

>>Follow our LIVE blog on Economic Survey 2019 here

The report mentioned that structural reforms of the last few years were continuing on course. Further, it said that the investment rate was seen higher for FY20 on higher credit growth and improved demand.

Accommodative MPC policy will help cut real lending rates, it noted, adding that decline in NPAs will help push capex cycle.

“I think as of now the banking sector stress is towards the fag end of the cycle. So, that is one positive part of any pickup in investment. However, my sense is that the pickup in investment might take some more time because there is uncertainty still around… second quarter also I think we were just into the first month and my sense is that only in the second half of the current fiscal year that we will see if any visible improvement in the investment activity,” Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor of SBI, said while speaking to CNBC-TV18.

“It has been pointed out that the NPA cycle might have peaked out, but it has kind of moved on from banks to non-banks. We should not forget deleveraging in the corporate sector is also going on, probably at the promoter level. So, I think all these are definitely headwinds for private sector capex,” said A Prasanna, chief economist of I-Sec PD.

The survey forecasts that oil prices will decline going forward in FY20 from the current levels.

The general fiscal deficit is expected at 5.8 percent for FY19 against 6.4 percent in FY18, the report said, adding that the government stood by its path of fiscal consolidation in the last fiscal.

“I think the RBI has estimated 5.9 percent, the consolidated deficit for the interim state. So, I think that is in-line with that number. Whether this number will be revised upwards is a matter of debate…,” Ghosh added.

The slowdown during the January-March period was due to poll-related uncertainty, noted the economic survey report, adding that falling nominal GDP growth shows secular inflation fall.

According to the survey, the share of the informal sector to manufacturing growth fell in the last fiscal. It added that the country must sustain 8 percent growth to become a $5 trillion economy by FY25.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

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Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

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KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Union Budget 2020: Economic Survey explained

FILE PHOTO: Illustration photo of an India Rupee note

Every year, a day before the Union Budget, the Ministry of Finance presents the Economic Survey. So it is only fitting that before one knows exactly what the budget is all about, they should first know the economic survey, and what it means.

There are many ways to get a sense of how the economy is doing, the stock market, for instance, but as much as one loves the stock market, it is not the authoritative source of data on the Indian economy. That honour goes to the economic survey.

 5 Minutes Read

Budget 2019: End the smoke-and-mirrors accounting, ring in transparency

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

When the interim finance minister presents the interim budget, he will likely show that the government has largely achieved its fiscal deficit targets.

Our successive budgets have always followed accounting and disclosure standards that are – to put it mildly – misleading.

When the interim finance minister presents the interim budget, he will likely show that the government has largely achieved its fiscal deficit targets.

Analysts will politely applaud, and then debate the extent of “innovative” accounting involved. After all, the government’s total receipts are well short of budgets. Real expenditures are higher than budget. It follows that the true fiscal deficit must be higher than budget.

The government will deploy creative accounting solutions around this. It will magically convert borrowings by government owned entities into lower expenditure at the central level. It will transfer money from its left pocket to its right and show a net receipt to itself. And since it follows cash accounting, it will simply delay paying out expenses and refunds, to show lower expenditures and higher revenues.

The government will deny or ignore speculation about the scale of the subterfuge – which one fears could be as high as 1 percent of GDP. It will correctly point out that it is doing nothing different from what previous governments have done – though the extent will be a matter of debate.

The best way to end speculation about one’s books would be to adopt better accounting standards. The government itself rightly demands these better standards from businesses in India. The fact that successive governments have balked at doing that should make us worry about the true extent of our accounting hole.

Borrow and Pray

Even through these tinted accounting lenses, the quality of our fiscal spending looks questionable.

If we’re growing at 12 percent and can borrow at 8 percent, borrowing and investing is actually a good idea. We needn’t worry too much about fiscal deficits then, as long as we are putting the borrowed money into education, roads, irrigation and other productive investments.

The tricky bit is that we are not just borrowing to invest. We are borrowing – a lot – just to pay our current bills. Our spending on current expenses such as interest payments, salaries, pensions, government schemes etc. alone are well in excess of our revenues.

This difference – the “revenue deficit” in fiscal parlance – is actually rising the past three years and could top 3 percent of GDP this year.

It feels like we’re consuming beyond our means now, in the hope that our children will live up to their promise and pay off our debts.

As a corollary, it feels like we are not investing enough in our children’s future – unless you make the very debatable argument that any form of spending now is good for our children.

The Shiny New Toys

Rather than debate transparency and quality of the budget, in the recent past, we economists and academics have shown our politicians even more shiny new toys.

We have suggested that one way to help the poor in our country is to hand over money to them. Of course, we have also pointed out that they would have to cut down on other expenditures, but we aren’t sure if anyone has heard that bit.

We have suggested that we don’t need to monitor how much the government borrows just to pay current expenses such as salaries, pensions, and interest payments. In other words, there now isn’t a revenue deficit target that the government has to adhere to.

We have suggested that the RBI balance sheet has a magic lamp waiting to be rubbed.

We have set up a system where the RBI can step in to helpfully buy large amounts of government bonds whenever there is a flight of capital from the country, without any debate around the consequences.

If we look past the bells and whistles that accompany all this, we might find that our core recommendations are to simultaneously borrow more money and print more money.

Idi Amin would be pleased.

The Real Debate Needed

Maybe borrowing and printing money could actually work. Genuinely. After all, inflation is low, growth is sputtering, crude oil prices are (fingers crossed) manageable, and the global context is comparatively benign. Perhaps government spending and some printing of money is what is needed to kindle India’s animal spirits. Maybe this time is different.

On the other hand, maybe not. Maybe we risk a repeat of the past, when large government spending inevitably caused macroeconomic vulnerability, inflation, twin deficits and financial instability.

Maybe there still is no such thing as a free lunch.

These are real questions that need to be debated and answered. Instead, we are preoccupied with our shiny toys, and could be on the verge of a huge economic gamble, unsure of the outcomes.

Truth & Discipline

The chapter of the Economic Survey of 2016-17 that dealt with the idea of Universal Basic Income (UBI), speculated that the Mahatma might have been conflicted with the idea of UBI, but that on balance, he might have given the go-ahead.

One aspect the Mahatma would have been totally against is the pretense that accompanies our budgets. Besides the moral dimension, there is no point in keeping up a pretense when everyone knows there is one. By continuing with status quo, we only spur dangerous speculation about how ugly the truth might actually be.

It is time we moved decisively towards better transparency in our government books of account. It is time we have a bipartisan, independent oversight of the budget along the lines of the Congressional Budget Office in the United States.

Only when we know our true economic status can we truly contemplate and debate our shiny toys.

At a time when our politicians are hurtling into a spiral of competitive populism, we need the checks and balance of truth and discipline.

Ananth Narayan is Associate Professor-Finance at SPJIMR. 

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

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index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Budget 2019: All you need to know about Economic Survey

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

 Listen to the Article (6 Minutes)

Summary

The Economic Survey reviews the overall state of the economy in the one year and is prepared under the guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser.

The Economic Survey reviews the overall state of the economy in the one year and is prepared under the guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser and presented by the union finance ministry.

However, this time Economic Survey 2019 will not be tabled on the first day of the budget session of the Parliament as government is presenting an interim budget.

The survey is not published in the election year as the task of framing the document is given to the government that will take power post the elections.

The document is framed by the economic division of the department of economic affairs under the ministry of finance and gives a detailed picture of the various sectors of the economy and an overall economic scenario of the country over the years.

The document helps in providing an outline for the year ahead.

Elon Musk forms several ‘X Holdings’ companies to fund potential Twitter buyout

3 Mins Read

Thursday’s filing dispelled some doubts, though Musk still has work to do. He and his advisers will spend the coming days vetting potential investors for the equity portion of his offer, according to people familiar with the matter

 Daily Newsletter

KV Prasad Journo follow politics, process in Parliament and US Congress. Former Congressional APSA-Fulbright Fellow

Previous Article

Oil Fluctuates as Traders Assess China’s Vow, Unrest in Libya

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today's market

index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -72.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +28.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +30.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -14.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95
index Price Change
nifty 50 ₹16,986.00 -7.15
sensex ₹1,882.60 +8.30
nifty IT ₹2,206.80 +3.85
nifty bank ₹1,318.95 -1.95

Currency

Company Price Chng %Chng
Dollar-Rupee 73.3500 0.0000 0.00
Euro-Rupee 89.0980 0.0100 0.01
Pound-Rupee 103.6360 -0.0750 -0.07
Rupee-100 Yen 0.6734 -0.0003 -0.05
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Montek Singh Ahluwalia says elections not the time to devise sophisticated policies

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, renowned economist and former deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, is a key figure in country’s economic reforms from the early 1980s onwards. He held several important positions including special secretary to the Prime Minister (1988–90); commerce secretary (1990–91); secretary, department of economic affairs, ministry of finance (1991–93) and finance secretary, ministry of finance (1993–98). Ahluwalia earned his B.A. (Hons) degree in New Delhi and his M.A. and M. Phil. degrees from Oxford University. He has published a number of articles on various aspects of the Indian economy in academic journals and was awarded Padma Vibhushan for his public service. According to Ahluwalia, the proposition that coalition governments cannot deliver good results is simply not true as we had the best reforms during a coalition government in 1991. Slamming politicians for devising sophisticated policies during the election time, he said governments should have clear sense of policies that they are going to follow. 

Edited excerpts:

Q: What is the legal limits of vote on account and interim budget? Can anything as big as a Rs 2 lakh crore programme be announced in an interim budget?

A: I don’t know the legal position on this. The tradition is when the government is entering into an election year, the budget is an interim budget and so you don’t need to discuss very much questions of feasibility and so on. Since the election will take later, probably the election notification will not have been issued. I don’t know legally whether you can present a budget and then simply go into the election.

The problem is that if you do present a budget, then that budget will have to go through very detailed examination about feasibility.

I have no idea what the government intends to do on that.

Q: But in 2014 vote on account and interim budget, the then finance minister P Chidambaram had said that he proposes certain tax tweaks, but caveated it by saying if the same government came to power?

A: I remember in 2009, we were just getting out of the crisis, I had recommended then to the finance minister Pranab Mukherjee that we cannot go into a budget in the middle of a global crisis and not let anybody know what you are going to do. So, even though the budget itself simply repeated the previous year’s numbers, Mukherjee said at the time of the regular budget that it was his intention to increase planned expenditure by a certain amount. Now that was not part of the budget proposal, but it was kind of declaration of intent. So, I suppose governments could always do that, but to feed that into the actual budget, it means one or two things – if you are going to increase expenditure on certain things are you going to reduce it on something else. Is the budget deficit going to increase or are you going to cover it through new revenues and how credible are each of these things? This will become an issue for debate and discussion.

Q: The other thing that is doing the rounds, pre-budget and pre-poll is a free period for speculation. The other speculation is that income tax limit would be brought up to Rs 5 lakh, can that be introduced in the budget? Now, let us remember that on February 1, government has full majority. It can even after the recess do a full discussion and pass the budget by March 29, like it did last year, so can it introduce a tax measure like this?

A: Legally and in terms of parliamentary tradition, I cannot pronounce on that. It’s one thing to say I am going to do it and it’s quite another to put it in the budget, because if you put it in the budget, then you must be making some assumption that what it is going to do to tax revenue. Really, you are asking me to speculate on what the government will do and although this is a free season for speculation, I don’t think I want to add to that speculation. This is really something I don’t know about.

Q: I was only asking given that you have seen many pre-election budgets. Is it possible for government to do such a major tax reform or a tax tweak?

A: When you say tax tweak, you mean you are going to actually put it in the finance bill as an amendment or simply announce that we are going to do it.

Q: I meant put it in the finance bill as an announcement and get it passed?

A: I think that will have to be judged in terms of legal feasibility and parliamentary appropriateness and I am just not competent to pronounce on that. But if it is legally possible, surely a government can always announce what it intends to do and bear the consequence of how you are going to fill the hole that is created

Q: It is quite possible that a slightly different government comes in maybe an NDA-led coalition or maybe it’s not an NDA coalition at all. So you are kind of leaving a faith-accompli for the next government isn’t it?

A: Not really, because if the passing of the budget is delayed, it is messy. You are constraining the next government that is certainly true and that is why most people thought you wouldn’t do that.

Q: Can the government do anything with this year’s budget itself. Can it for instance on Republic Day or sometime earlier announce a major farm programme in expectation that maybe it will be able to get the RBI’s capital, at least some part of it as the Jalan Committee will announce its decision before March 31. So can it go ahead and say that we will put in maybe Rs 2,000 in every BPL family’s Jandhan account or in the account of every marginal farmer? Can such a plan be announced for the current year?

A:

Nothing stops the government from announcing something during the current year.

If it is to be given reality, then you have to pass the relevant supplementary demand for whatever would be due in that year. But in all probability, what you announce now, it would be an announcement. It is very unlikely that the procedures needed in order to get the money flowing can actually be completed within the fiscal year. So, announcement is one thing and making provision is another thing.

Q: Wear your economist hat and tell us your comment on various measures and promise already being made. Farm loan waiver – is this a good way to go? Do repeated farm loan waivers affect the credit culture and bankers worry a lot?

A: I share that view that it is not an ideal thing to do. It has been done before and is usually resorted to as an emergency measure or emergency relief. One difference between farm loan waiver and some of the other programmes is that a farm loan waiver is a one-off thing, whereas all the other programmes that are being talked about will involve continuing expenditure. So, depending on the circumstances, depending on who is covered, I mean it is one thing to have a farm loan waiver for small farmers. It’s another thing to have a farm loan waiver in states that have been agriculturally affected and is quite another to have a universal farm loan waiver or farm debt and anyway it’s never an all farm debt, because all you can do is waive the debt of the banks and we know that only the top 30 percent or so of farmers are getting bank loans. I think all these things have to be waived together.

The really important thing is, if you look at it from a purely economist point of view, there is clear farm distress.

In the sense that performance in the agricultural sector is not what it should have been and the nature of the problem is also different. It is not simply a production problem. It is really a problem that we haven’t given the Indian farmer the kind of marketing support that he needs and this marketing support in my view cannot be done through minimum support prices. I mean that is a strategy of yesteryear when you were looking at grain.

As farmers diversify and start producing all kinds of other crops, which are perishables – that is where you are getting the big differences as farmers are getting much compared to what has been given in the market. You need much deeper institutional reform of markets including legal changes which have been talked about before. You will never get substantial corporate investment going into the old business of logistics and trade as long as the Essential Commodities Act remains on the statute. Are we willing to abolish it? I am in favour of repealing the Essential Commodities Act. It does not play any useful purpose.

Similarly, all states have very restrictive laws regarding the agricultural produce marketing committees, which restrict trading in the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) to license traders. We need comprehensive reform of all of this so we can bring in private money into this whole area and every government of the last three has talked about it. If you look at the economic survey and planned documents for the several years, but we are not seeing comparable action. So I feel that this is where we need focus on and also by the way providing farmers with good seeds, research based agriculture – things of that sort.

 5 Minutes Read

Here’s full text of RBI’s deputy governor Viral V Acharya’s speech on PCR and GSTN

KV Prasad Jun 13, 2022, 06:35 AM IST (Published)

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Here’s full text of RBI’s deputy governor Viral V Acharya’s speech on Public Credit Registry and GSTN.

Here is the full text of Viral Acharya, deputy governor, Reserve Bank of India’ s speech on Public Credit Registry (PCR) and Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN)

It is a pleasure to be with you all and share with you my thoughts on some recent developments that are expected to have transformative implications for our country. In particular, I wish to draw your attention to some major initiatives in gathering and analysing better credit data that can potentially have a huge impact in creating a financially healthy India.

It is a known fact that a large part of the Indian economy is informal. This year’s Economic Survey has given us an estimate, sourced in large part from the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN). About 0.6 percent of firms – accounting for 38 percent of total turnover, 87 percent of exports, and 63 percent of GST liability – are in what might be called the ‘hard core’ formal sector in the sense of being both in the tax and social security net. Estimates also suggest that the informal economy employs nearly 50 percent of the workforce in India. The earnings of some in the informal economy may be at par with their formal economy counterparts, but due to its informal nature, people and businesses in this part of the economy are rendered ‘invisible’ to the formal banking system. This ‘invisibility’ adversely affects their ability to grow current income level because of lack of access to formal credit.

It is no surprise, then, that India’s credit-to-GDP ratio stands at a modest 55.7 percent, compared to China’s 208.7 percent, United Kingdom’s 170.5 per cent and United States’ 152.2 percent (Bank for International Settlements, Q4 2017 data, see Chart 1). In other words, there is financial under-penetration in India.

It is in this context that that I will share with you two giant strides being undertaken that will help India move towards more equitable and timely access to credit, especially to the underserved. While these strides are being undertaken independently, together they can democratise and formalise credit in India.

Public Credit Registry (PCR) for India

The first stride is the creation of a Public Credit Registry, or PCR in short. Last year in my speech5 at the Annual Statistics Day Conference in RBI, I focused on setting up a PCR in India. Till that time, the concept of PCR was not much discussed in our country, though a large number of countries had already established or were in the process of establishing PCRs. Today I am happy to quickly recount with you the progress that we have made in this direction thus far. The constitution of a High Level Task Force (HTF), under the chairmanship of Shri Y.M. Deosthalee, and consisting of eminent experts from various stakeholders, was announced by the RBI in Part B of its monetary policy statement dated October 4, 2017.

As enunciated in its terms of reference, the HTF has a) reviewed the current availability of information on credit and assessed the gaps in India that could be filled by a PCR; b) studied the best international practices on PCR to determine the scope and target of a PCR for India including the type of information to be covered; and c) deliberated on the structure of the new information system or whether the existing systems could be strengthened and integrated to get a PCR, thereby suggesting a roadmap, including the priority areas, for developing a transparent, comprehensive and near-real-time PCR for India.

The PCR aims to be an extensive database of credit information for all credit products in the country, from point of origination of credit to its termination (repayments, restructuring, default, resolution, etc.), eventually covering all lender-borrower accounts without a size threshold. As of today, information on borrowings from banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), corporate bonds or debentures from the market, external commercial borrowings (ECBs), foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs), Masala bonds, and inter-corporate borrowings are not available in a single data repository. The main objective of the PCR is to fill this lacuna and capture all the relevant information about a borrower, across different borrowing products, in one place. Moreover, significant parts of this registry of borrowing contracts and repayment history will be accessible to all stakeholders provided they too share their data with the PCR.

The HTF submitted its report6 on April 04, 2018 recommending that a PCR should be setup by the RBI in a phased and modular manner. The report of the task force has been placed in the public domain after the top management of the RBI discussed it and had it reviewed by its Legal Department. An Implementation Task Force has now taken over the job of steering the project.

PCR – What are the gains?

Though the HTF report has dwelt in detail on the basic questions like (a) why is a PCR necessary in India, followed by the closely linked question (b) what are the functions of the PCR, let me add my thoughts on the same. The PCR in India has been conceived as a data infrastructure that the financial ecosystem within and outside the Reserve Bank would be drawing data from as per the PCR’s access policy. The prospective users will include lenders like banks and non-bank lenders including the new “fin-tech” lenders; others providing data analytics such as rating agencies and credit information companies; as well as regulators.

Let me mention here the difficulties faced by the Reserve Bank in the context of the corporate non-performing assets (NPA) problem 5-6 years back. In spite of the private credit bureaus operating for several years and doing a vital job for retail credit scoring, the central bank could not precisely assemble data on the quality of the credit portfolio of banks’ large borrowers at an aggregate level. The data are simply not being reported with integrity and full coverage in case of large corporate borrowers. That is where RBI’s Central Repository of Information on Large Credits (CRILC), initiated in 2014, made a huge difference, even if it was somewhat late to be set up. CRILC provides a timely window on any degradation of credit of a large borrower at a bank to the central bank and to other banks having the same entity as a borrower. The Asset Quality Review (AQR) that followed in 2015 relied heavily on CRILC data to cleanse the Augean stables of massive and unrecognised non-performing assets (NPAs) that have saddled our banks. The credit information system, as a whole, has many such gaps which leave much scope for improvement.

In my speech in July last year, I had also provided another example of how research based on data from credit registries can inform better policy-making. In the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, some economists – by pointing to the robust credit growth in bank loans – asserted that the credit flow in the United States was unaffected. But a deeper analysis of the Thomson Reuters Dealscan data quickly revealed that the credit growth was almost entirely attributable to the corporates drawing down on the existing credit lines (a form of a ‘bank run’). The origination of new loans had, in fact, dried up.

In another piece of research, Lima and Drumond (2015)7 discussed the insufficiencies attached to aggregate data when assessing financial stability and showed how micro data available in databases, such as Portugal’s Central Credit Register (CCR), enable an assessment of the causes of the movements behind the aggregates and thus uncover the potential build-up of imbalances such as the one that eventually led to the European Sovereign debt crisis and engulfed Portugal too. India can bring in a similar level of sophistication to its economic research through careful access to near-real-time and comprehensive credit data that a PCR would capture.

World Bank’s Doing Business 20188 reports the coverage of the adult population by institutions gathering credit data in select countries, grouped by the existence of only Public Credit Registry (PCR), only Private Credit Bureaus (PCBs), and both PCR & PCBs (Table 1). It is to be noted that some countries have opted to have a PCR only for supervisory purposes, where they cover large credits only. It is also documented that the coverage of adult population by PCR and PCBs varies widely depending on the objectives set by the regulators as well as the prevailing socio-economic condition in these countries.

Table 1: Number of countries with Public Credit Registry (PCR) and / or Private Credit Bureaus (PCB)
Neither PCR nor PCB Only PCR Only PCB Both PCR and PCB
24 52 70 44
Source: World Bank’s Doing Business Report: 2018

At a broad level, the PCR increases the efficiency of lending institutions by reducing information asymmetry using a PCR, the lender can get a 360 degree view of the borrower’s other outstanding credits and past performance, allowing better screening at time of credit origination and superior monitoring during the life of the credit. This is a well-studied phenomenon and has been recorded in many research studies. The introduction of public registries and private bureaus has been found to raise the ratio of private credit to GDP in many countries by 7 to 8 percentage points over a five-year horizon9. Importantly, credit registries and bureaus do not just increase the amount of borrowing; they are also responsible for improving the quality of borrowing.

India currently has a robust and unique digital identification for every citizen in the form of Aadhaar. Similarly, the Corporate Identification Number (CIN) as well as GSTN provide identities to businesses. Moreover, India is one of the few countries to provide an authentication service atop these identity services. These identities can be used in a PCR to aggregate data about borrowers from across multiple institutions with a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of merging and referencing of data. Further, the PCR will be a single source of information that has veracity. It will make reporting for small financial institutions easier and also remove the inconsistencies that come from aggregation across different reporting formats of multiple financial institutions.

With a repository of such trusted data available, banks and other lenders will be able to take better credit decisions. It can help them recognize early warning signs of asset quality problems by being able to see performance on other credits. The principle of reciprocity is baked into a PCR. While the lending institutions will be mandated by law to share borrower information, most do it willingly, because, in turn, they want to see similar data from other lenders before they make a credit or rollover decision. Further, lenders can compete and offer attractive rates to borrowers based on their individual risk profile, instead of relying on an average risk profile for all customers in a sector.

In the Indian context, where many borrowers do not have a credit history to begin with, the PCR will enable good borrowers to distinguish themselves. The envisaged Indian PCR will mandate recording of all material events for all loans on all credit facilities (funded as well as non-funded) extended by all credit institutions – commercial banks, cooperative banks, NBFCs, MFIs – and also covering borrowings from other sources (Chart 2). This will reduce adverse selection, wherein low-risk borrowers are charged higher prices, while high-risk customers pay lower prices on their loans, as lenders cannot adequately distinguish among borrowers.

PCR – Legal angles

Let me now touch briefly upon a few key issues around the PCR on the legal front.

1. Organization: The PCR is initially being set up within the existing RBI infrastructure. The Reserve Bank, being a statutory corporation, can do only those activities which are permitted by the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 or other legislations. In addition to its core central banking functions, the Reserve Bank also performs certain promotional functions. However, this promotional activity is limited to ‘financial institution’ only10. Since no financing activity is contemplated for the proposed PCR, it might be difficult to label PCR as a ‘financial institution’. This takes it out of the purview of a promotion under the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.

Another option is to promote an organization for a matter incidental to the functions of the Reserve Bank11 – as part of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 or Banking Regulation Act, 1949 or any other enactment. Collection of information, including credit information, from its regulated entities is an important aspect of the regulatory and supervisory functions of the Reserve Bank. One can find many provisions in different enactments which enable the Reserve Bank to collect such information. If the scope of collection of information for PCR can be deemed to be reasonably incidental to the expressly permitted activities of the Reserve Bank, a subsidiary or a Department for the purpose of setting up and hosting the PCR would be justified. Otherwise, the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 can be suitably amended conferring the Reserve Bank powers to conduct the business of PCR. Such a specific conferment of power, with clear enumeration of the functions of PCR, would remove the limitations of incidental powers mentioned above.

2. Confidentiality constraints: An important issue in connection with the setting up of PCR is the overriding of confidentiality provisions in many enactments, which directly or indirectly bar sharing of information, including credit information, except in manner specifically permitted. As the PCR will have to get information from different sources, the inability of the sources to share such information can be a constraint. To this end, the PCR will have a consent-based architecture.

The notice and choice framework to secure an individual’s consent is fundamental to data processing practices in a digital economy. It is based on the act of an individual providing consent for certain actions pertaining to his/ her data. It is essential that users provide consent to an entity sharing data (the data provider) before they share data with an entity requesting access (the data consumer). The consent based architecture of the PCR will strengthen privacy of data subjects by ensuring that the data is accessible only to the data consumer, only for stipulated period of time and only for a stipulated purpose, as consented to by the user.

3. PCR Act: Having regard to the complexities discussed above, it is desirable to have a special comprehensive legislation, overriding the prohibitions contained in all other legislations on sharing of information required for the PCR. Otherwise, all such legislations will have to be amended separately, providing an exemption for sharing of information with PCR. It is to be noted that almost everywhere PCRs are backed by a specific enactment of a PCR Act. In India, a PCR Act can enable us transparently address the entire gamut of governance issues including data acquisition and its dissemination through access rights by various users.

PCR – Linkages to other Datasets

In my speech in July last year, I talked about how the power of information can be substantially enhanced if we can link CRILC data with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) database containing financial results of the corporate sector. PCR should help in connecting to and referencing other databases. A portion of the envisioned PCR’s power would derive from these linkages with ancillary information repositories. Chart 2 shows the schematics of how PCR proposes to augment the core credit information reported by regulated entities with linkage to other information sources and deliver the full potential of information to the stakeholders. For example, through the CIN it may connect to the company’s financial statements. It should make alternate data, like utility bill payments records, available for credit decisions. This can significantly help to foster financial inclusion and democratise credit by allowing lending decisions to be based on all cash-flow activity of a borrower, even when physical asset creation has not yet taken place.

Goods and Services Tax Network

Let me now turn to a seemingly unrelated second stride being undertaken that can help directly address the information asymmetry problem in the credit market. It is one that most of you already know. So I don’t want to spend time explaining it, but instead focus on how it can move in lock-step with the PCR in completing a rich journey for formalising credit in India.

I am talking, of course, about the Goods and Services Tax Network. The GSTN, ostensibly, is a way for citizens and businesses to pay their taxes, and claim their input tax credit. However, another way to look at the GSTN is as a trusted repository of matched invoices. Sellers upload their invoices to the GSTN; buyers approve the invoices billed to them. Since internal trade amounts to about 60 per cent of GDP, it is a dataset we cannot ignore.

Already, the GSTN has exceeded expectations since its adoption in India. The Economic Survey 2018 estimates that GSTN implementation has increased the indirect taxpayer base by more than 50 per cent, with 3.4 million businesses coming into the tax net12. It appears that the number of GST registrants has risen due to a large increase in voluntary registrations. Small B2C firms want to be part of the GSTN because they buy from large enterprises. In fact, 68 percent of their purchases are from medium or large registered enterprises, giving them a powerful incentive to register, so they could secure input tax credits on these purchases.

The Input Tax Credit motivation is a strong push towards digitisation and formalisation of small businesses. Moreover, the acceptance of invoices by the buyers creates a trusted repository of invoices. We know they aren’t just cooking their books; they have verified buyers at the other end who vouch for the invoice generated. This gives one a potentially penetrative view into the otherwise invisible 10 million businesses that are now on GSTN, uploading roughly 1 billion plus invoices every month13.

Source: https://www.gstn.org/ecosystem/

The GST ecosystem has a layer between the tax payer and the GST system (Chart 3). The GST Suvidha Providers (GSPs) are envisaged to provide innovative and convenient methods to taxpayers and other stakeholders in interacting with the GST systems. There will be two sets of interactions, one between the App user and GSP and the second between the GSP and the GST System. The GSP can help the taxpayers in GST compliance through their innovative solutions.

By design, invoicing data about their own business is made available to users of the GSTN. Continuing the theme from the PCR, we already know that trusted, verifiable data from any registry can significantly improve access to credit. Similarly, we expect an explosion in the number of credit products specifically designed for business flow, such as invoice discounting based on GSTN data.

The interplay of PCR and GSTN

Now, the PCR can aggregate the information of a borrower using the core credit information repository and information lying in a set of sub-systems spread across multiple agencies (e.g. MCA database, GSTN etc., refer to Chart 2 above), to aggregate information of a borrower. Together, these sub-systems create a universe of verifiable information and allow safe access to the data for all important stakeholders in the financial system. What is noteworthy about these institutions is that they are all digital-native. They have been designed as digital infrastructure, being able to support multiple use cases atop them, without being partial or overly prescriptive on any one use case. This is not happening in a vacuum. Much of this would not be possible if the other roadblocks to going digital weren’t already solved. Other public digital infrastructure such as eKYC for knowing your customer or Unified Payments Interface (UPI) for digital payments are nudging users towards creating larger data footprints, and helping them indirectly improve their creditworthiness.

With this infrastructure in place, we expect the costs for on-boarding those users who are currently excluded by formal credit to nosedive. It will become feasible to serve a large number of customers, operating at a much lower average transaction size. Just like in the Fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector, banking and access to credit too will be ‘sachetized’ to make it more accessible and affordable for the masses. We want that even a small tea shop vendor should be able to take a 500 rupee loan at fair rates, say, for only a week, based on such data.

It doesn’t stop there. These new institutions can also provide better tools to regulators and researchers to monitor the health of, and provide stability to, the national financial system.

Let me conclude. In a country with a low credit to GDP as ours, efficiently increasing affordability and access to credit are paramount goals. I am excited for what we can achieve when our small entrepreneurs are not capital-constrained, or when health shocks do not send families to usurious loans, and back into poverty. The PCR and the GSTN are two giant strides that utilize modern technological advances for improving information access and quality. Together, they hold the rich promise of enabling us to democratise and formalise credit in India.

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